brad01
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Posts posted by brad01
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I read the maths of the game and the house edge is lowest when you always go to war
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kachatz is right its the bets you don't make which can make all the difference
Very easy to get roped into a bet every hand scenario - exactly what the casino's love
Very hard especially after a few losses that the best thing to do is to sit back and wait
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Amazing how the casinos manage to throw you off a well thought out plan
They are masters of psychology
Keep a pair of blinkers on when you walk in there and do not deviate even if your method loses
As trbfla says above - once you learn how to stick to the plan you will do much better
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CT70 put in some great info on ties
I found it to be correct from my experience.
Being that it is a train of thought that casinos do manipulate or design the shoes then there would definitely be some logic as to where they choose to put the ties
Therefore they can be predicted
If you can predict better than 1 in 8 then you can stay ahead
It is generally to be treated as a bonus or novelty bet to I believe
To quote kevin kachatz: I don't ever propose to make my living off of ties but from time to time they can make sense
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That's the next step now I understand that CSM's are most likely a time saving measure than paranoid casino orchestration - although the do appear to have stopped card counters.
I will look to see if the games overall appear to be random or clumped out of these machines
Will let you know what I come up with
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Hi Keith did a walk around the main floor of my casino and ALL card games apart from bacc use one2six csm's
casino war
caribbean stud poker
3 card Texas hold em
bj
i dare say this is purely a time saving exersize than orchestration although the truth might lie halfway
maybe people assume a random game out of these shufflers when in fact it may be a clumped game (for bj I mean)
nothing to say these machines do shuffle them enough to randomise the cards
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Pen and paper is the best
maybe ur app is good for practise see trends
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Another thing about WL tracking is the patterns that appear to form
I became aware to take notice of this from wolfat when I was looking at hit rates
As I said above wins and losses generally seem to come in 2's and 3's and occasionally in 3 or mores
When the 3 or mores happen then its a trigger to either paper bet during losing or to increase your bets while winning
BUT
what about the other times:
LLwwLLwwwLwLwLLLLLwLLwLLwLwwwwwwLwwwwwwwwL
24 W
18 L
+6
I currently play a version of 5D after trying many strategies from this forum and I have worked pretty hard to get my hit rate to ideally 65 % or more
In this case its sitting at 57% which isn't too bad
I discussed the LLLLL and WWWWWWW situations but look at the other patterns
In order form left to right:
LLWWLLWW
wLwLwL
LLwLLwLLwL
There is not a lot of opportunity but there is some to maybe either save 1 loss and / or gain 1 extra unit for each of the above pattersn by indentifying them and either holding back a bet or betting an extra unit
Lets assume one made or saved 1 unit form each pattern
That's 1 unit saved from LLLLLLLL situation (paper bets)
5 units gained from WWWWWWW situation (betting 2 units)
and 3 units saved from the above patterns
That's huge
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Hi Keith I would really love to get into Blackjack more but over here (Australia) we play by European No Hole Card rules
Also every game uses CSM's 'One 2 Six' brand shufflers - 6 deck games
BJRocks put a good post and analysis of this scenario where he says that CSM's deem card counting useless as the cards are fed straight back into the machines after every round
He also gave an analysis of ENHC rules where he said the players edge is reduced due to splits and doubles being ineffective with these rules.
Also Carlos said he has played against One 2 Six shufflers and finds they can be ok - he said they are simply used to save shuffle time and not as most people think that the casino is 'rigging' the game by changing shuffle patterns etc with them.
He said generally they don't shuffle the cards much from his experience and tend to keep them fairly clumped
He also said that with ENHC rules the third base player CAN at times control the game a little by hitting when those cards would normally be the dealers.
Whats your thoughts on:
ENHC rules
CSM's - are they simply used to save time and do you think they are used to produce a random game or a clumped game?
6 deck games - apparently they are the most unstable - a good game doesn't stay good for long?
Would you play Blackjack under these rules if that's all there was?
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Here is my wL ratio for live play today all flat betting
LLwwLLwwwLwLwLLLLLwLLwLLwLwwwwwwLwwwwwwwwL
24 W
18 L
+6
note wins and losses come in mostly bunches of 1's and 2's
3 losses is a sign to maybe wait for a paper win before resuming for real
3 wins in a row could be a sign to increase bets
Had I have implemented that I would have:
reduced my losing units by 1 unit
increased my winning units by 5 assuming I switched to 2 unit bets after 3 wins iar and switched back to 1 unit after a loss
All simple stuff none involving negative progressions
Why did I not do it while at the tables?
Easier said than done
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I think every shoe or session has a potential
All based on many different factors:
Time, stress, bankroll, strategy, trend of the shoe, your own personal weaknesses playing the shoe that is being dealt - to name a few
Maybe the potential is high, maybe it is low, or maybe it is negative
But you have to be able to realise that potential and quit at the right time
Maybe that means hitting your stop loss and admitting defeat as McVince says
Maybe it is increasing your units to peak your winning streak and then quitting after 1 loss, 2 losses, or x amount of losses form your high point
Or maybe as kachatz says it is realising that you are hitting your head on the ceiling and no matter what you do you are not going to get above +4 and if you continue to push it you are only going to end up bouncing into the negative
(also experienced this many times)So I think to realise the potential of the shoe or session you are playing is important but how can you know this without experience?
How can you know that playing beyond -5 in a shoe will cause you more harm than good in most cases?
Unfortunately you have to have experienced the losses to be able to identify how to avoid them!
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Yes it works for me
There is only a certain amount of information that a person is able to process between hands to make a decision.
You must decide what are the right variables to use and not use too many so it confuses you
But being able to track many variables of the game at once and pick which ones have trends you can use at the right times is the key I feel.
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Hi Machine,
You have the right attitude and you are at the right place
It definitely can be done
I believe you are correct to start with NOR
I still use NOR as my basis for all BS (Bet Selection)
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As Pando said his sample size of 70 shoes is not really enough to say and also they are from a specific casino where he plays.
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I was here when the split happened and I was confused as to what to do.
I was going to pay for the final word manual but I never did
The thing that stopped me was Keith's post.
I wish I could find it as I would re post it but the 2 parts that really got me was :
Decisions been made this is what we are doing take it or leave it. - That's what you want in a leader or an owner to take leadership and make decisions when they need to be made. Right or wrong they are made with confidence.
Everything about the game has already been discussed here - we don't need new methods or manuals etc we just need to use what we have to work out how to win. If you cant win with what we have here you never will - too true
The forum is no longer going to be based around one persons thoughts or opinions in which people are belittled for disagreeing - it will be a players forum of collective ideas.
I made my decision form that post and I know I made the right one
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Thanks for that Keith a good history lesson
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For the record I didn't write the above I pasted it from gamblers glen.
i did however think it was pretty spot on
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With all those degrees, all that experience and that high IQ, Ellis still doesn't know the difference between the Vig and the Hold. Incredibly, he also hasn't figured out the basic math that shows how a 1.25% Vig easilty turns into a 16% Hold, which is the reported figure that he keeps talking about as proof of Casino "Orchestration".
The 16% is the percentage of buy-in that the Casino's keep, on average, for that particular reporting time/place. It's very simple - punters buy in with an amount, each time they play through their buy-in they will (over the long run) lose the vig percentage of the buy-in. If they play only Player/Bank the average vig is about 1.25%. If they also bet Ties (14.36% vig) the average vig will be higher. Each time a person plays through their original buy-in they will lose the average vig over the long run. If a person bets no ties and played through their buy-in 12.8 times they would lose 16%. If they played only ties and played through their buy-in 1.1 times they would lose 16% (long term).
In addition, people who lose their buy-in and then walk, forfeit 100%. It is EASY to see, with plain and simple math, how the casinos profit an average of 16% with the relatively small vig in Baccarat. NO Cheating or Orchestration is required.
As has been pointed out here, it is in fact in the Casino's Best Interest to keep the game as random as possible. Any orchistration or deliberate bias would be quickly identified and exploited to their detriment. Not to mention the legal and public trust consequences of getting caught doing such a thing.
Ellis has stated in his own forum that no casino orchestration can beat the new SAP system, the only thing that could beat it is a random game. He also stated that no one has ever lost with the SAP... Just like he claimed that the Twister won 95% of shoes. Same Ole Same Ole.
But Ellis is a great salesman. Who else could convince people to fork over a thousand dollars, plus $500/yr for the privilege of designing new systems for him that he then sells for his exclusive profit. He brags about how much money he's made selling his systems, no about how much he's made using them.
Still, he has some dedicated and hard working people on his private forums trying endlessly to find something that works, and they have come up with some good and interesting ideas. Ellis's fees are really just for the right to participate in that group effort in the hope that eventually someone there will come up with a method that works. Whether or not his steep membership price is worth it is everyone's own decision. Ellis should realize however, that relentless hysteria about casino orchestration, etc., while serving as a convenient excuse for prior system failures, diminishes his credibility and actually costs him more sales than it produces.
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Never have I seen such a compilation of false, misleading and amateurish Bac information in one place. I am compelled to respond even though your board won't let me log in under the name and pass word you emailed to me.
My name is E. Clifton Davis. That is the name I was born with in 1940. I am a retired Math Professor from a major University with a clinically evaluated 160 IQ. I am degreed in Engineering, Architecture and Business.
I put the first Baccarat system ever to pen 20 years ago. It did $660,000 in sales in the fisrt three weeks. I've written a dozen more since. My Bac books have far outsold all other Bac books in the world put together. The only thing in gaming to outsell my Bac books is my BJ books, 8000 to date. I wrote NBJ (New Blackjack), WCB (World Class Blackjack) and In Search Of (the winning game). The only winning BJ players in the world today are my players taugt by me. I consider a winning player one who is ahead at the end of a year after all taxes and expenses. I have the only professional players in the world. I consider a professional player as one who plays full time for a living with no other source of income.
I placed second in the million dollar World Championship Of Baccarat at Caesars'. While I was high money winner, one of my 4 remaining opponents hit a triple tie in the last 3 plays of the tournament and edged me out. I should have bet ties right along with him but alas...
I put my money where my mouth is. I have performed countless public casino exhibitions all over the U.S. both in Baccarat and BJ W/O ever losing a single one. The most memorable were Taj 1 and 2, where in both instances I won exactly $10,000 in less than a half hour W/O ever betting more than $200 in head to head high stakes pit BJ play in front of hundreds of invited spectators. I know of no other instructor who has ever performed a single one save Jerry Patterson but he lost.
I played NBJ full time in A.C. for three years W/O a single losing day - something I could teach any of you to do. It's not nearly as difficult as you think.
When any of you can perform these simple feats, THEN, I will listen to your criticisms but until then please excuse me while I yawn.
Yes, I am very successful in the business end of gambling instruction. Probably far more than you realize. Probably more than all other instructors put together. But consider why that is. Players drift from instructor to instructor until they get to me. The buck stops here. Thousands of counters quit counting to play NBJ but no NBJ player ever took up counting. It's the same in Bac. Players that get here stay here.
But I don't apologize for my business successes. Success doesn't make me wrong any more than working for free makes you right. Much more to the contrary methinks.
We did not abandon The Twister. We simply finished perfecting it. We would not abandon a winning system. For instance Wolfat, here, whom I have never met, recently completed his fifth winning trip with Twister playing in Italy, Monte Carlo and Atlantic City. Paid for his lifetime membership 20 times over.
Now we are completing the final perfections to Universal SAP. No one has lost with it in a casino. It is an extremely clever system with no losing pattern, unlike ALL other systems. SAP has nothing to do with changing your prog as announced here. It has to do with losing to the least common event. When the least common event changes the system automatically changes to the new least common event. Think about it! You've got to lose to something! Wouldn't you best lose to the least common event and win to the most common events. THAT is what SAP does. Ridicule it if you must but that won't stop it from winning. Nothing will. The casinos can't hit a moving target.
Baccarat isn't about math or patterns or progressions. Baccarat is about cheating. Casino cheating in Baccarat is simple to prove. Look, commission is 1.25% of the money bet on average. O.K its 5% of the money bet on a Bank win. On avg you bet on Bank half the time and win half of those bets. So commission is 5/4 = 1.25% of the total money bet. That's not trick math. Its common ordinary straight 4th grade math. So their Baccarat profits should be 1.25% of the money bet. But its not is it. Casinos must, by law, publish their profits anually to the public. One of the places they do this is right on their own TV specials. They publish a profit of 16%. On TV THEY call it 16% of the money bet. Some argue that no, its 16% of the drop like it used to be years ago. It doesn't matter. The two totals are not that different esp when you consider that many people buy in huge since that is the number one comp factor.
But look at what 16% of the money bet means: take an aggressive ten dollar player than averages $20 a play. His commission will average 1.25% of 1440 or $18. Sound about right? At 14.75% (16 - 1.25)of the money bet, his average loss will be $212. Sound about right? Well it does to me and I've played more Bac than all of you put together.
So the question is: How did the casino profits get from $18 to $18+$212? Where does this extra $212 come from?
Poor players? How do you play poorly in a 50 - 50 game? That's like playing poorly in a coin toss. Can't be done!
There's only one way. They cheat. I'm not talking slight of hand here. God knows they do enough of that - like the chip pile break down trick at Foxwood which I've seen gain the casino an extra $70,000in a few shoes. I'm not talking about the dealer dealing to his right hand and snatching two cards for Player and Bank and making whichever side win that he wants as I have caught them red handed doing at Turning Stone. All that is bad enough. That's why we teach casino cheating here. But that only accounts for a very small part of the 16%. I'm talking about biasing the shoe through shuffle control, against the majority of the players.
That's not cheating? Try it in a saturday night Poker game!
That is where the extra 14.75% profits comes from. And thank God! or more accurately, the casinos. BECAUSE if they didn't cheat it would be exactly like one of you said. It would be impossible to win. That's what I teach, how to use the casino's own cheating against them.
Don't believe any of it. Well its all public record. You aren't really naive enough to think that casinos could survive on 1.25%, are you? No corporation does. If so, stay away from casinos. You're too dumb to play.
Just one other thing while I have your undivided attention. Guys, haven't you ever heard of the United States copyright laws? Granted, college profs get extra mandatory training in the copyright laws because it is illegal to disseminate work done by others but you guys must have at least heard of them. What you are doing here is patently illegal and the federal courts are having a field day right now with ignorant people disseminating copied CD's. Look, I've already sued in Federal court very successfully and I know the ropes and I have an excellent copyright lawyer who formally copyrights ALL my work. You guys are sitting ducks and more than enough proof exists right here in black and white on your website. I really don't want to sue you guys. I got more lucrative things to do. But if you persist..... -
The sad thing is the frustration and anger caused by CasinoClub has spilled over onto this forum.
Often happens when people get their adrenaline going about something they are passionate about.
Hopefully we can all take a step back and not let the rubbish from that forum spill onto here
Oz and Keith you are 2 guys I highly respect in the baccarat / gambling world who have both been a big part of how far I have come.
Please lets work this out, Oz take your medication, have a few drinks etc don't leave the forum because of Ellis.
You cant help everyone there are some people that are just gonna believe his BS no matter what you do.
He chose his path and like you I just cant understand it.
Mind you the other day I read a discussion on gamblers glen from 2008 and it pretty much sums up Ellis.
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Bet selection is king
221 is pretty robust especially if you know how to handle it like member TG does (break down the sequences and keep unit size minimal during rough times)
But nothing will handle poor bet selection coupled with a bad streak.
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I have to give credit to Ellis as he taught me NOR and the basics of bacc:
1's and 1's and 2's = S40 / Opposites
2's and 2's and 3's = OTBL
1's and 3+'s with no 2's = TBL
3+'s and low 1's = repeats
2+'s on one side and 1's with 2's max on other side = SS
I don't necessarily agree with the 'play thru a shoe with one method' approach that he likes to teach but I can see the thinking of what he is trying to do and adapt different methods to different casino conditions and create counter measures.
The shoes are not random he is right about that they do fabricate them even from the shufflers they are in a predetermined order I have seen the psychological tricks they create with the shoes.
If the casino conditions are consistent then his strategies and systems will work the problem is the casinos mix it up really well and you cant hit a moving target with a gun on a fixed tripod that's the downfall..
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One thing I've learned in 2 yrs of studying and playing bacc is when someone claims they've got the answer in a simple mechanical method I'm willing to bet they won't send the casinos broke!
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The trend I had went for more than half the shoe and never lost more than 2iar if playing tbl
then at the end it switched to otbl but with some twists.
the strategy I believe was to get people ahead and then when it switched they would double up to get it back but they wouldn't and then the shoe ends
we have to outthink these guys
its not that hard as you only have to think ahead of the 99% losers that they target
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NEW MEMBER HERE! :)
in BeatTheCasino.com Q and A Baccarat and Blackjack
Posted
Otbl in my terms is the ability to produce 2's
not just 2's straight but 2's zz
3's are acceptable as they only cause 1 otbl loss (straight and zz)
4's incur 2 losses iar and that may mean a shift of bias or otbl may return - they are a wait while in otbl play for me or if I have reason to believe repeats will start or 4'a will go 5 then I may choose to switch immediately
a knowledge of sap is required to be able to decide this
so a perfect otbl bias would obviously be
2222222222222222.....
an acceptable otbl bias would be
212322121232332212132
hope this helps