Guest Posted April 30, 2010 Report Share Posted April 30, 2010 Let's start with this statement:"No shoe has ever been dealt in real Baccarat that can't be beat by the right System."So the REAL challenge in Baccarat is how fast can you decipher the BEST system to play in the shoe at hand? Everybody knows after the fact. Nobody knows before the fact. But a good heads up player has very strong clueseven before the shoe begins.I have often said that playing a pile of shoes at home is virtually a waste of time, except for practice, because you have taken the shoes out of context of the casino. The advantage an experienced player has is that he has developed his casino savvy. So the challenge to me is to develop YOUR casino savvy right here, OUTSIDE the casino - a pretty tall order,but let's give it a go.The first order of business is to totally convince you that Casino Baccarat is NOT random. It is that fact and that fact alone that gives us an edge in Baccarat - A big edge.So your first question should be: Why don't the casinos simply make the cards "random" and therefore unbeatable?The fact is that the casinos have already made that mistake and have learned from it.Before shuffle machines, casino commission rules stated that each card must be shuffled a min of 3 times. (Recognize that casino commissions are paid BY the casinos). In spite of that many standard shuffles only incorporate 2 shuffles.But computer scientists have proven, beyond all doubt, that a MINIMUM of 7 shuffles are required to randomize a SINGLE deck. One prominent shuffle expert argues that a single deck takes 25 shuffles. The IMPORTANT thing for YOU to understand is WE play 8 decks - not one. 8 decks do NOT require 7 times 8 to randomize. They require 7 to the 8th power. This would take days.Casinos discovered back in the '90s that the more non random the cards are the more they profit. So all standard casino shuffles are designed to produce NON random cards. Proof is that casino profits soared. Blackjack profits went from 5% of the drop (chip purchase money) in the '90s to 16% today. Baccarat profits went from 3% in the '90s to 26% today. No rules changed. The ONLY thing that changed is the shuffle procedure - the randomness of the cards, or more accurately the non randomness.WHY? BJ players play Basic Strategy. Basic Strategy requires RANDOM cards. If the cards were random ALL BS BJ players would win and 95% of BJ players play Basic Strategy. The ONLY BJ players who win are those who play the non randomness of the cards - the Clumpers. Search the entire world. In spite of all the movies and all the hype, you can't find one single winning card counter. That is why casinos are the BIGGEST promoters of card counting and why they sell card counting books right in the casinos. Card counting is VERY good for casino profits. All this BS about barring card counters is pure casino hype, ie. pure bullshit!But non random cards improved Bac profits even more. WHY?Because it stopped long progressions (Martingales) dead in their tracks. Sooner or later the player bets his Martingale against the bias and gets wiped out - 3% to 26% worth!Now comes shuffle machines. The first shuffle machines did, in fact, produce random cards. MISTAKE ! Casino profits went right through the floor immediately. The casinos threw them out after ONE month.First redesign - same outcome!Second redesign - same outcome! Third redesign - same outcome!It took 4 to ten redesigns before shuffle machines could duplicate the non random cards that dealers had been perfecting for years. Result, you will NEVER see random cards. The casinos cannot afford them.The cards are NON random. That is our edge! THAT is how we make our money. We take advantage of the NON randomness of the cards. BUT, it is only an advantage if you know how to take advantage of it - by matching the right system to the right table. THAT is the purpose of this thread! Let's start THERE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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