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System / Table Matching - Ellis

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Let's start with this statement:

"No shoe has ever been dealt in real Baccarat that can't be beat by the right System."

So the REAL challenge in Baccarat is how fast can you decipher the BEST system to play in the shoe at hand?

Everybody knows after the fact. Nobody knows before the fact. But a good heads up player has very strong clues

even before the shoe begins.

I have often said that playing a pile of shoes at home is virtually a waste of time, except for practice, because you

have taken the shoes out of context of the casino. The advantage an experienced player has is that he has developed

his casino savvy. So the challenge to me is to develop YOUR casino savvy right here, OUTSIDE the casino - a pretty tall order,

but let's give it a go.

The first order of business is to totally convince you that Casino Baccarat is NOT random. It is that fact and that fact alone

that gives us an edge in Baccarat - A big edge.

So your first question should be:

Why don't the casinos simply make the cards "random" and therefore unbeatable?

The fact is that the casinos have already made that mistake and have learned from it.

Before shuffle machines, casino commission rules stated that each card must be shuffled a min of 3 times.

(Recognize that casino commissions are paid BY the casinos). In spite of that many standard shuffles only incorporate 2 shuffles.

But computer scientists have proven, beyond all doubt, that a MINIMUM of 7 shuffles are required to randomize a SINGLE deck.

One prominent shuffle expert argues that a single deck takes 25 shuffles. The IMPORTANT thing for YOU to understand is

WE play 8 decks - not one. 8 decks do NOT require 7 times 8 to randomize. They require 7 to the 8th power. This would take days.

Casinos discovered back in the '90s that the more non random the cards are the more they profit. So all standard casino shuffles are

designed to produce NON random cards. Proof is that casino profits soared.

Blackjack profits went from 5% of the drop (chip purchase money) in the '90s to 16% today.

Baccarat profits went from 3% in the '90s to 26% today.

No rules changed. The ONLY thing that changed is the shuffle procedure - the randomness of the cards, or more accurately the non randomness.

WHY? BJ players play Basic Strategy. Basic Strategy requires RANDOM cards. If the cards were random ALL BS BJ

players would win and 95% of BJ players play Basic Strategy. The ONLY BJ players who win are those who play the

non randomness of the cards - the Clumpers. Search the entire world. In spite of all the movies and all the hype,

you can't find one single winning card counter. That is why casinos are the BIGGEST promoters of card counting

and why they sell card counting books right in the casinos. Card counting is VERY good for casino profits.

All this BS about barring card counters is pure casino hype, ie. pure bullshit!

But non random cards improved Bac profits even more. WHY?

Because it stopped long progressions (Martingales) dead in their tracks. Sooner or later the player bets his Martingale

against the bias and gets wiped out - 3% to 26% worth!

Now comes shuffle machines.

The first shuffle machines did, in fact, produce random cards.

MISTAKE ! Casino profits went right through the floor immediately. The casinos threw them out after ONE month.

First redesign - same outcome!

Second redesign - same outcome!

Third redesign - same outcome!

It took 4 to ten redesigns before shuffle machines could duplicate the non random cards that dealers had been perfecting for years.

Result, you will NEVER see random cards. The casinos cannot afford them.

The cards are NON random. That is our edge! THAT is how we make our money.

We take advantage of the NON randomness of the cards.

BUT, it is only an advantage if you know how to take advantage of it -

by matching the right system to the right table. THAT is the purpose of this thread!

Let's start THERE!

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Before we get into system matching I want to supply you with even more evidence that the cards are NOT random.

This point of non random cards is of crucial importance because belief in random cards is the major reason for losses

in both Bac and BJ. If you have ANY lingering doubts, you are destined to lose in either game. But once you accept

non random cards, you can learn how to beat almost any shoe.

Long term experienced players here and I could give you thousands of examples but I'll give you just one:

One of our members and I played a shoe in Tunica (Horseshoe) that had only 6 Banks in the entire 72 play shoe.

And all six Banks were one in a rows. As soon as the shoe started the dealer said he had screwed up the shuffle.

We played F2 M2 and lost 6 hands in the whole shoe but won every progression. We made 89 units each with a

highest bet of 3.

I think ALL will agree: That is impossible with random cards!

You have NEVER played a shoe that hit all random expectations:

50% opposites - 50% repeats

51% Bank - 49% Player

18 1's, 9 2s, 4.5 3's and so forth

Every shoe you ever played was biased toward something. That bias may have been slight or major

but it existed and the shoe could have been beat IF you played that bias.

Everyone recognizes a Choppy shoe or a Streaky shoe.

But do they recognize a neutral shoe?

A low disparity shoe?

A shoe short in 1's?

Or high in 3's

High in sporadic 1's


No, they don't.

Perhaps one player in a thousand recognizes such things. Coincidentally, one player in 1000 wins!

One more thing I picked up on other forums:

Many have posted that they had a system that won for years and then lost. They blame that on random cards. - Ridiculous!

These are always long progression systems - maybe 8 or 12 play progressions. They play a particular

bet placement style like TB4L or whatever.

Now THINK about this.

First, WHY did they win for so long?

Next, WHY did they suddenly lose?

The system didn't change.

The rules of the game didn't change.

What did?

There is only one thing left - the cards.

When they started the casino was using a shuffle that favored the system.

Then the casino changed the shuffle and the cards changed right with it.

Casinos are pretty damn smart, aren't they.

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Before we get into system matching I want to supply you with even more evidence that the cards are NOT random.

This point of non random cards is of crucial importance because belief in random cards is the major reason for losses

in both Bac and BJ. If you have ANY lingering doubts, you are destined to lose in either game. But once you accept

non random cards, you can learn how to beat almost any shoe.

I agree with you Master Ellis. Actually I encountered this "non random weird shoe" tonight (or was it the casino manager?). I attracted a lot of attention playing this shoe that the casino manager stepped in and ended the shoe at Play 63. Just like that! Finished! Done! Next table please! The bad thing about this, we, players, saw that there were still cards to be dealt. Is this legal? Hmmmnnn...

At Play 63 I was up +32. So why did I attract so much attention? I was betting the MAXIMUM BET allowed! They even forbid me to shoot my table winnings using my camera phone! Is this really legal? Dammmnnn.....! Well, lesson learned.

I will post this "non-random weird shoe" to prove the randomness of cards. I will just take a nap because I'm too tired after a day's work at the casino.

Btw, any movement on this thread Sir Ellis?



Edited by BaCcArAt KiNg
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  • 1 month later...
  • Users

Thanks Tom! The importance of these basics cannot be over stressed. From everything I see on the internet, BTC has the only winning players. BTC is also the only site stressing table/system matching. That should tell everyone something.

If a player wanted to select the easiest possible way to win he could simply follow these steps:

1.) Find a table that is highly favoring repeats and play RD1.


2.) Find a table that is highly favoring opposites and play Sys 40.


3.) Find a "neutral" table equally strong in Ops and Reps and net bet opposites vs repeats.

For all 3 of these your optimum prog is U1D2 M2

Cash Mgt

Shoot for +10 when playing U1D2 M2

BUT, if you hit +10 early like the first col or the top of the 2nd col capture +8 or +9 and go for more.

At -4 you need to rethink the system you are playing.

At -8 get out!

When net betting suspend any prog that loses 2 or3 in a row until that prog has a paper win. Meanwhile the other prog keeps on betting unopposed. You can decide which is best between 2 or 3 losses in a row by simply noting if you would have usually won or lost the 3rd bet. This way you capitalize on long runs.

Anyone can learn to win at Baccarat playing this simple concept. Then go from there to learn how to get bigger more consistent wins. But already, you are likely playing better than anyone else in the casino.

All you are doing in this concept is differentiating between choppy and streaky and neutral tables and taking advantage of that fact. EVERY truly experienced Bac player knows there are such things as choppy, streaky, and neutral tables. The difference is YOU now know what to do about it - after a little practice that is.

This one post is worth more than anything you could pay any price for on the entire internet. I don't think there is a single experienced member here that would not agree with that. Among all of us, we've tried EVERYTHING available elsewhere on the internet. NONE worked anywhere near as well as the simple beginner advice above.

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

I prined out the manual for System 40 but dont know where I put it. Tried to find the link to the pdf file in this forum but couldnt. Can someone provide the link again for System 40?


System 40


1.) Starting at Play 2 bet a 1,2 prog on Opposites.

2.) When it loses the 1,2 bet 1 unit on Repeat. Win or lose go back to OPs.

3.) If your R bet lost next time you bet R bet 2, then 3 etc,

4.) Your goal is +10.

You don't have to color code. I just did that on image 1 to clarify the R bets.

OK, we call it Sys 40 because Ann and I won 40 straight shoes in a row at 5 different

casinos. That's probably a world record.

Image 1: The regular version is played below on image 1. It uses a 1,2 prog on opposites

and a 12345 prog on repeats. How high the R prog gets depends on how many 3 in a rows

a shoe gets before it has a 4 or more. But only 1 shoe in about 500 has no 4 or mores. On

avg. the R prog gets to about a 3 bet. Here it only got to 2. But I've had it go to 5 or 6.

We always played the Regular version because we were playing big units.

If the shoe was VERY streaky with long straight runs we simply stayed on the runs, once

we bet on the run, with 1 bets until we lost.

You can play the reg. version slightly more conservative by going back to 1 after losing

your R bet. I didn't bother since it was such a good shoe.

Image 2 is the same shoe played U1D2 M2. The advantage of playing this way is it

handles long runs nicely. Note the 10 in a row I drew in below. But really you can stick

with the reg version and if you are seeing long runs simply stay on them instead of

jumping off after the one OTR bet. But if you play U1D2 M2, shoot for +20. I would

only do this when a table proves to be very good. Its safer if when you win your R bet go

back to 1. This version can only lose to a 3,3. In the regular version you don't like 3,3 but

you don't usually lose to them.

Image 3 is U1D1M2. You can shoot for 30 at a good table.Watch out for 3,3s!

Have fun with it! It wins a lot of shoes. It probably loses to less than any other system we

have. BTW, Some days you see no 3,3s and other days you see several. If you want to

play it safe, after you lose your OTR bet under a 3, stop betting untill the 33 pattern

breaks. Now the only way you could lose is to fail to stay OTR on a very long straight

run and only on the regular version. Once a run goes 7, you can only be down a max of 2,

so always go on the run at that point. Now the worst that can happen is a 6 ST that stays 6

but that only puts you down a max of 4 and you can make that up

this is the manual




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The secret of winning a high percentage of shoes with System 40 is selecting the right culprit. By culprit I mean you can choose what you want to lose to. You MUST lose to something. When you go on the run after TWO loses per the standard rules, you are making THREES the culprit. But what if threes are ABOVE normal? You will lose! So you look to see what is MOST below normal among 2s, 3s, and 4s. Your SAP chart can precisely lell you that .

To make TWOS the culprit you go on the run after ONE loss.

To make THREES the culprit you go on the run after TWO losses.

To make FOURS the culprit you go on the run after THREE loses.

You MUST have a least common event among 2s, 3s and 4s. They CAN'T all be above normal.

USUALLY whatever is least common STAYS least common.

Therefore you USUALLY win by selecting the least common.

Perhaps more important is you NEVER suffer a catastrophic loss.

If you keep your wins higher than your losses, a 50% shoe win rate wins overall.

System 40 played correctly wins far more than 50%. It is BEST to choose choppy tables. BUT it can beat streaky shoes too when you choose the least common culprit.

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