Make a million dollars with this idea??

[Audionut]

OK math people.. this kept me awake last nite... here is what I'm trying to figure out.

The chance of a 6 in a row is 1 in 64, right? Chance of 5 in a row is 1 in 32, right?

SO.. lets say we are playing a shoe with ANY system, doesn't matter, for this example I'm playing RD1.

As soon as I see 3 or even 4 in a row, why not make a separate HUGE side bet that the 6 in a row (or 5 for that matter) will NOT happen, with a 2 step progression!! Would'nt I win 63 times and only lose once?

Just to clarify... I see PPPP... Now I bet HUGE amount next on B, if that fails, one more on B. How can this lose long term?

As most of you know, math is not my strong suit, and I'm sure other people would of thought about this before me, but why wouldn't it work and be profitable?????

[MVSeahog]

As most of you know, math is not my strong suit,

OK, at least we all agree on that one

If you're waiting for PPPP to bet "huge" on BB, then look at what you're actually doing.

Basically you're betting a 4 won't go to 5 or 6.

If you jump in on the 5th hand, you're now playing F2 on Bank with a terminal finish if one of those don't hit!

Does that make sense?

Also, unless you're playing a version of System 44, I think almost every play we have here would tend to stay on the Player streak anyway!

MVS

[Audionut]

OK, at least we all agree on that one

If you're waiting for PPPP to bet "huge" on BB, then look at what you're actually doing.

Basically you're betting a 4 won't go to 5 or 6.

If you jump in on the 5th hand, you're now playing F2 on Bank with a terminal finish if one of those don't hit!

Does that make sense?

Also, unless you're playing a version of System 44, I think almost every play we have here would tend to stay on the Player streak anyway!

MVS

Of course I'm betting the 4 won't go to a 5 or 6...thats the whole point of the bet!! There is only a 1 in 64 chance it will go to a 6 at that point. If I have 4 in a row players, I'm saying the odds are REALLY great (63 to 1) that one of the next 2 hands will be BANK....

Those are odds I will take ANYTIME!!

[MVSeahog]

Audio,

I was really hoping somebody else would jump in and answer this but your logic is flawed.

You are NOT betting a 1/64 chance (6 in a row).

You ARE betting on a 1/4 chance as in 2 in a row.

Had you started wagering PRIOR to the first decision, then you'd have your 1/64 bet.

The other obvious proof of this is to just play it the way you've described it..

You will be amazed at just how many of those "1/64" betting plays are going to crash!! Way out of whack with what 1/64 should be.

Now I'd rather not be in this discussion to argue the point so I'll kind of drift out now, but I think if you'll play it on paper for a few dozen shoes, it might make more sense.

Wagering on the "last two" bets of a six bet Marty is not the same as betting on all six of them, especially if you're planning on betting HUGE on the last two!

MVS

Hmmm, you would have had one winner in today's BPH shoe. Congratulations!

[Audionut]

Audio,

I was really hoping somebody else would jump in and answer this but your logic is flawed.

You are NOT betting a 1/64 chance (6 in a row).

You ARE betting on a 1/4 chance as in 2 in a row.

Had you started wagering PRIOR to the first decision, then you'd have your 1/64 bet.

The other obvious proof of this is to just play it the way you've described it..

You will be amazed at just how many of those "1/64" betting plays are going to crash!! Way out of whack with what 1/64 should be.

Now I'd rather not be in this discussion to argue the point so I'll kind of drift out now, but I think if you'll play it on paper for a few dozen shoes, it might make more sense.

Wagering on the "last two" bets of a six bet Marty is not the same as betting on all six of them, especially if you're planning on betting HUGE on the last two!

MVS

Hmmm, you would have had one winner in today's BPH shoe. Congratulations!

OK OK I get your point. I knew something had to be wrong with this thinking..

It's funny though.. why is the point where you bet determining the odds vs what actually happens... for instance, 6 in a row is going to happen or not happen irregardless of where I bet... If I PAPER bet the first 4 hands of PPPP does that bring me back to 1/64 (rhetorical question). ?? What difference does it make?

I agree my logic MUST be flawed, else everyone would be doing it... just don't understand why when I start betting will affect the outcome (answer: it doesn't). But I guess it changes the odds.

Sigh. Back to the drawing board.

[Keith Smith]

Ellis here again: I can't seem to figure out how to log in on Keith's computer.

OK math people.. this kept me awake last nite... here is what I'm trying to figure out.

The chance of a 6 in a row is 1 in 64, right? Chance of 5 in a row is 1 in 32, right?

SO.. lets say we are playing a shoe with ANY system, doesn't matter, for this example I'm playing RD1.

As soon as I see 3 or even 4 in a row, why not make a separate HUGE side bet that the 6 in a row (or 5 for that matter) will NOT happen, with a 2 step progression!! Would'nt I win 63 times and only lose once?

Just to clarify... I see PPPP... Now I bet HUGE amount next on B, if that fails, one more on B. How can this lose long term?

As most of you know, math is not my strong suit, and I'm sure other people would of thought about this before me, but why wouldn't it work and be profitable?????

Ha, Just keep thinking Butch! That's what you're good at! But then Butch Cassidy and the Sundace Kid were shot a hundred times shortly thereafter.

The odds of a 3 going to 6 are exactly the same as the odds of a 1 going to 4. You might just as well bet opposites from the beginning of the shoe. At least that way you would win on all the 1 in a rows.

BTW, the odds of a 6 from scratch are 1 in 128 plays but the odds of a 5 going to 6 are 1 in 2. No matter what you make your prog, it would break even long term. But keep on thinking.

Guys, I'm still snow bound in PA and my flights home have been canceled 4 times but tomorrow, Friday, looks pretty good!

Didn't get to play much more but I did try THIS quite successfully: I did this on late night mini bac shoes with old cards that were all over the place. Start OTB4L at play 3. Go OTR after ONE losing bet. Stay OTR until you lose or until the straight or ZZ run has gone as long as the longest straight or ZZ run thus far, then back to OTB4L. I used a 112 prog. This did well in totally unpredictable shoes. You win on all straight and ZZ runs longer than 3 as well as all TT runs. We are playing a tournament later this month and I think I'll try that with an U1D2 M2 prog. 112 is not aggressive enough for a Tournament. 3's are not bad because you usually win the first 2 bets on them and always the 2nd. See what you think!

Edited February 3, 2011 by Keith Smith

[MVSeahog]

Guys, I'm still snow bound in PA and my flights home have been canceled 4 times but tomorrow, Friday, looks pretty good!

Keith,

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

MVS

[jerseyslim]

You dirty bastard. LOL

[ATTACH]2036[/ATTACH]

Keith,

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

MVS

[ECD]

[ATTACH]2036[/ATTACH]

Keith,

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

MVS

Well, it was me anyway.

[cherrylinh]

and those odds are gonna break u in a heart beat...cuz it did with me. im new to BTC but i already knew some of the strategy that mr keith and the crew is giving me. Well only one strategy that i was doing. after two banks or two players i would go the opposites. betting once then double after that one loses. when it goes pppp then i would ride on the 5th p or just take a lost. but i didnt. i kept betting against that run. and i went broke. when u see a either leave it alone or follow it. I just bought s40 system and learning more of it. what im trying to say is betting big after the 4th and so forth u have to have a lot of money backing u up. not a good idea at all

Cherrylynh

[Guest]

and those odds are gonna break u in a heart beat...cuz it did with me. im new to BTC but i already knew some of the strategy that mr keith and the crew is giving me. Well only one strategy that i was doing. after two banks or two players i would go the opposites. betting once then double after that one loses. when it goes pppp then i would ride on the 5th p or just take a lost. but i didnt. i kept betting against that run. and i went broke. when u see a either leave it alone or follow it. I just bought s40 system and learning more of it. what im trying to say is betting big after the 4th and so forth u have to have a lot of money backing u up. not a good idea at all

Cherrylynh

Right Cherry! Every time the system you are playing is asking you to make more than a 5 unit bet that system is proving to you that it is no good. It sounds to me like you were playing a form of OTB4L before you got S40. Played correctly, OTB4L is the best Neutral shoe system in the world! But there is a right time and a wrong time to go on the run (OTR as we call it) and sometimes it is best to skip that bet altogether. These are the things you need to know about OTB4L and these are the things we teach you on the private forum. But even then, you may be the best Neutral shoe player in the world but Neutral only accounts for 1/3rd of all shoes. The other 2/3rds will get you.

So OK, now you bought S40. Great! S40 is acclaimed to be the best system in the world. And these claims are coming from strange places - my competitors. And it's true. S40 is the best system THEY know of. But it has the same problem - It beats the Choppy third. You will do quite well with 40 as many have. But it is not the best system in the world and I should know because I designed it.

The best system in the world is NOR. NOR utilizes S40 to beat the choppy third, OTB4L to beat the Neutral third and F to beat the Streaky third. NOR can beat ANY shoe. It doesn't have a favorite shoe type. NOR is Universal.

To give you an idea, I played NOR exclusively with one of our members a couple weeks ago. I played the Sands, Bethlehem which has the worst Baccarat conditions I've seen in 30 years. I was also playing with the worst case of the flu I've had in 30 years. Yet I still managed to win 16 out of 17 shoes. My single loser was -8, our max loser. But overall, including the -8 shoe, I averaged +12.5 W/O ever betting more than 5 units and the 5 bet never even came up in most of the shoes. I challenge anyone anywhere in the world to beat that!

The NOR Training manual will soon be available to the public at $795.

But you can still learn it on our BTC private Baccarat forum until then.

If you are serious about making money playing Baccarat, you know what you need to do. NOR can get your shoe win rate up to 90% or even better W/O exposing yourself to anything worse than -8, or ever making a bet more than 5 units. Once you have learned S40, you are already a third of the way there.

Edited June 1, 2011 by Guest