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Kids - do not try this at home ..we are professionals!


kachatz1

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kachatz1

Had an interesting thought, one I thought all participants on this forum might like and find extremely beneficial.

For those of you who arttended the seminar in PA a few months back, you will remember I conducted the same sort of exercise with Ellis and seminar participants at that venue.

It works like this:

I played several shoes at Potowatomi Casino in Milwaukee last night. nothing particularly unusual or stressful, just plain old shoes that came out of the shufflemaster.

For me to simply post the results would be rather boring to virtually anyone who has played a lot of Bac, and uninspiring to those of you who are "newer" to the game.

So instead of posting a whole shoe all at once, I will post the actual results one hand at a time, and after each successive hand, as the shoe unfolds I will ask Ellis and ANYONE else who wishes to comment to post their thoughts on whether the next hand will be P or B or T ( I am including Ties as even though they have no basis in our betting outcome in terms of $$ won/lost, I think it only fair you can see them so at least you see the entire shoe exactly as it u:frown::frown:nfolded)

Also, I will post the numerical outcome of each hand, including ties, lest this helps you chart your play.

The only thing that I ask, that to be helpful to the group is that you explain your reasoning for your "next bet". how much you bet and why you chose to bet that way.

Keep track of your own score, and for arguments sake, your maximum starting bankroll is 20 units.

You can quit the shoe at any time, or you can enter wherever you like...just like the real world.

I will post my selections as well, and why I made them.

I hopeyou willl participate, and I think we can learn a lot from this as a group helping one another.

Here goes with the first hand

P8( natural), B5 Player wins. I did not bet as this was the first hand of the shoe.

Ellis and anyone wants to play along, what is your "bet" for the next hand?

Remember to explain your rationale, including AMOUNT BET IN UNITS and WHY/WHAT ARE YOU DOING( Sap, NOR, system 40, OT4BL, etc. etc.)

Thanks and good luck to all!

I will post the next hand after I get at least one reply. Reminder this is a real shoe, played 10/19/2011 beginning at approximately 9pm.CST. There were between 6 and 8 players at all times, and the conditions in the casino were generally crowded and a bit "smoky". There was one other Bac table open.

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OK, I would not bet the 2nd hand at all since I don't know the history of that shoe color.

Although given the time of day and the crowded conditions, if I was forced to bet by a must bet every hand casino rule, and the casino won't let you bet both P and B, I would bet P because P is both the OTB4L bet and the F bet and old cards tend to lean toward streak. But since you told us there were other players in the game, it is likely I wouldn't have to bet so I wouldn't.

BTW, is that a lathe in your picture?

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kachatz1
OK, I would not bet the 2nd hand at all since I don't know the history of that shoe color.

Although given the time of day and the crowded conditions, if I was forced to bet by a must bet every hand casino rule, and the casino won't let you bet both P and B, I would bet P because P is both the OTB4L bet and the F bet and old cards tend to lean toward streak. But since you told us there were other players in the game, it is likely I wouldn't have to bet so I wouldn't.

BTW, is that a lathe in your picture?

No lathe, but it was a Player.

I did not bet again, since it was only the second hand.

So, so far we have:

P8 B5 Player wins.

P8 B3 Player wins.

And the next hand, what will it be? Again, for me no bet just yet.

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Hey guys as you might have noted, I'm redirecting the public Bac forum toward NOR with the thread

What is NOR and why is it the best Baccarat investment in the world?

You can double click to that thread right on the BTC front page. I could really use some more testimonials and thanks for the ones I already got!

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kachatz1
Whoops, I was playing with witchygal on the public forum. She needs some encouragement.

Right, play 3 no bet but if I had to I'd bet B - 2 out of 3 again - not that that means anything.

Ok, Ellis NO BET and we now have a few of our private forum members chiming in...all no bets.

Well, no harm no foul...the 3rd hand turned out to be a TIE.

So we have so far:

P8 B5

P8 B3

Tie 9/9

Gentlemen, place your bets for hand 4. Me, I am betting 1 unit on the Player, as I like the fact that first 3 hands we have point value of 8,8,9 on the Player...follow the shoe.Others? Reminder to post also your MM strategy and your rationale for your bet.

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Well, we don't count ties so we are still at hand 3. So I'm still at no bet. I've never seen it demontrated where hand score totals are anything but meaningless. Plus they draw your attention away from things that ARE meaningful. But to each his own.

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kachatz1
I would Bet Banker. If the shoe bias towards OTB4L or S40 banker could be the choice.

Well, vinfong318 was absolutely right, I missed it with my Player bet, and Ellis says no bet still, so here is where we are after the 4th hand.

P8 B5 ( no bet)

P8 B3 ( no bet, but Ellis did guess P corrrectly)

T 9/9

B7 P1 Banker wins. So I am down one unit.

So for hand #5 I will lay off as i am down one unit ($25) and it is still early in the shoe.

So, what will it be?

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Again, with me, no bet. I wait for some "tell" in the shoe before I start betting. As Ellis has always said, start right and you rarely have to change before you hit your goal.

Bill

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I still not bet until I see some bias

I'm proud of you guys! You are doing the right thing! But, see, I'm the boss. So I have to win at least a million dollars in this shoe just to live up to expectations. Betcha I do. BUT, Katchaz, you have to convince these guys we are not in cahoots on this shoe. Ha, lots of luck! BTW, where did this shoe come from?

This sorta reminds me of where my head was at when I had 300 spectators watching for me to win yet again. You start thinking, maybe everything I think I know is complete bullshit. But then It all worked out About 300 times in a row. Then you start thinking: maybe its not bullshit after all. After all, it all worked out 300 times in a row. That tends to build your confidence.

I say I'll win at least a million in this shoe. Any takers?

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kachatz1
I'm proud of you guys! You are doing the right thing! But, see, I'm the boss. So I have to win at least a million dollars in this shoe just to live up to expectations. Betcha I do. BUT, Katchaz, you have to convince these guys we are not in cahoots on this shoe. Ha, lots of luck! BTW, where did this shoe come from?

This sorta reminds me of where my head was at when I had 300 spectators watching for me to win yet again. You start thinking, maybe everything I think I know is complete bullshit. But then It all worked out About 300 times in a row. Then you start thinking: maybe its not bullshit after all. After all, it all worked out 300 times in a row. That tends to build your confidence.

I say I'll win at least a million in this shoe. Any takers?

Well, ladies and gents, looks like everyone of us not quite ready to take this for a spin.

No, I am NOT in cahoots with Elis on this, but i will say his imaginary friendly chip of $1,000,000 large would have been a winner! Bank it was, for hand #5.

Leaves us as follows:

P8 B5 Player Wins

P8 B3 Player wins

Tie 9/9

B7 P1 Banker wins

B8 P6 Banker wins ( alas, it was only an inaginary chip...)

So on to the next hand. PPBB so far ( or P22 for those who wanna know)...looks like a P to me... I'm on P for 1 unit.

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Well, ladies and gents, looks like everyone of us not quite ready to take this for a spin.

No, I am NOT in cahoots with Elis on this, but i will say his imaginary friendly chip of $1,000,000 large would have been a winner! Bank it was, for hand #5.

Leaves us as follows:

P8 B5 Player Wins

P8 B3 Player wins

Tie 9/9

B7 P1 Banker wins

B8 P6 Banker wins ( alas, it was only an inaginary chip...)

So on to the next hand. PPBB so far ( or P22 for those who wanna know)...looks like a P to me... I'm on P for 1 unit.

Oh, and for those of you who missed out or are just joining in, the first post explains the casino and the playing conditions...THIS IS AN ACTUAL SHOE

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kachatz1
If I HAD to bet I would go P, but I would still rather watch the shoe develop.

I'll come back to this thread when it nears the end of the first column

Paul

Good point by Zebra here, to wait a bit more. Also looks like B@cc@r@t just showed up at the table and wants to bet the Banker. Well the Banker did indeed come through,and that leaves me down 2 units...repeats looking good to me,so Iwill progress up in my progression of 1,1,2,2,4 to a 2 unit bet on the Banker for the next hand. Anyone care to join me?

So far we arre looking at the following first 6 hands played:

P8 B5 Player wins

P8 B3 Player wins

tie 9/9

B7 P1 Banker wins

B8 P6 Banker wins

B3 P1 Banker wins ( and yours truly is down 2 units...)

All the while,the casino continues to appear more crowded from my vantage point ( seat 5 at the table...)

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