Guest Posted April 7, 2012 Report Share Posted April 7, 2012 (edited) Since this subject has already been broached, I feel I owe the members a correct way of doing this.First liners are the circles on the first horizontal line of a horizontal tote board or score card.Second liners are the circles on the second horizontal line.Whenever an Opposite is dealt, the tote board automatically starts a new vertical row so that all straight runs form a vertical row the same length as the run.A ZZ run will form a horizontal line on the first horizontal line of the tote board. Think of first and second liner bets strictly as a side bet that can be added to any system.A first or second liner bet can only be made after an opposite has been dealt. That opposite always puts an initial circle on the first horizontal line. At that point we can bet that the next circle will also be on the first line (a first liner) (an opposite)or we can bet that the next circle will be on the second horizontal line (a 2nd liner) (a repeat). Here is the straight dope:Watch my lips: The overall long term odds are 50/50. Anything more than that is just a rumor.Less than half of all shoes will produce more 1st liners than 2nd liners making 1st liners a good bet in that portion of total shoes.Just as less than half of all shoes will produce more 2nd liners than first liners making 2nd liners a good bet in that portion of total shoes. Why do I keep saying less than half? Because there is a middle third that goes back and forth making neither a good bet. (OTB4L shoes) (OvR shoes).So PJ called me and asked if he could teach 2nd liner betting. Since I was going to be out most of that month anyway I reluctantly said yes but only if you also teach first liner betting because one is ridiculous W/O the other. He said OK.He told me that he had been doing very well betting only 2nd liner bets and playing with no score card and had been doing so for some time now and would like to teach the members.That was my first mistake: I should have asked exactly what he meant by "some time now".To me that means at least several months. I strongly suspect that to him that meant one or two nights wherein he lucked into a few streaky shoes. The fact is if you only bet second liners you would usually not be betting often enough to keep your seat at the table. Only about a third of shoes favor 2nd liners at all let alone strongly favor. What do you do the other two thirds of the time, sit there and smile at the dealer? No casino in the land is going to let you sit out entire shoes W/O betting. But that is exactly what you would have to do. And also betting first liners in first liner favorable shoes doesn't completely solve the no bet problem. You would still be sitting out a third of all shoes. They aren't going to let you do that unless you are betting $1000 units. So I asked PJ what do you do when 2nd liners are not coming in? I wait until they ARE coming in. They seem to win. But that could be several shoes??? Right, I wait until they are coming in.So perhaps now you understand why I say that 1st and 2nd liner betting should ONLY be considered as a side bet to bolster the results of whatever main system you are playing. It goes well with NOR and it goes well with NB. You bet it in addition to your regular system bets.Apparently PJ finally realized this too because he immediately started teaching 2nd liner betting along with SAP. He still left out 1st liner betting altogether which breeched our agreement that I never should have made in the first place. We dropped SAP years ago and with good reason. It loses to Neutral shoes and to preshuffled cards and BOTH of these were on the incline especially in Asia which includes about half of our recent students. So OK how do you do this 1st and 2nd liner side bet thing profitably???The whole key is: What are 1's doing? And What are 2 or mores doing?On average there are 18 1's and 18 2 or moes in a shoe equaling 36 total events. That is why overall the bet is 50/50. They can't both be high or both be low fortunately.High 1's (more than 1 every 4 plays) is a first liner shoe.High 2 or mores (low 1's) is a second liner shoe.Normal 1's or close to it is bad for BOTH 1st and 2nd liners. Don't bet either. Here is an easy way to know for sure:When 1's are considerably more than 1/4 of the play number, bet 1st liners.When 1's are condiderably less than 1/4 of the play number, bet 2nd liners.When 1's are about equal to 1/4 of the play number, don't bet either. How do you bet 1st liners?Wait for an opposite and bet on the opposite side. (bet an opposite)How do you bet 2nd liners?Wait for an opposite and bet on the same side (bet a repeat)Recognize that once a straight run has gone to 2, there can be no more first or 2nd liner bets until the run ends.Every confirmed 1 in a row creates a winning 1st liner bet.Every 2 or more (2+) creates a single 2nd liner win.3 or mores become meaningless until the run ends. If you like to count, fine: Count every 1 in a row as +1. Count every 2 as -1 regardless if it then goes to 3 or more.A significant + count is 1st liner territory.A significant - count is 2nd liner territory.A low or hovering 0 count means DON'T bet either one. Just stick to your main system. OK, let's take a look at a good 1st liner col of 20.P111115111115OK, every 1 produces a 1st liner win. Every 2+ produces a 2nd liner win.This col produces 10 1st liner wins and 2 loses for a +8 if we are betting 1st liners @ 1 unit.If we were betting a 1,2 prog on first liners, we win at +9.OK. let's look at a good 2nd liner col of 20.P23231234Each 2+ produces a single 2nd liner win regardless of the length of straight runs and each 1 produces a 2nd liner loss. Betting 2nd liners at 1 unit we win +6. Betting a 1,2 prog we win +7.Now lets look at a col bad for both:P1313131313 Neither first nor 2nd liners come out ahead. Don't bet either.What you DON'T do is bet what seems to be winning. Go by math, NOT superstition. Bet what IS winning in the shoe you are playing right now. How much should you bet? Well certainly not 5 units. NONE of these bets have any more advantage than your regular system bet. Why bet more than 1 unit or maybe a 1,2 or 123 prog. Certainly no more than that. Sudden 5 bets make no sense whatsoever.OK, those are the FACTS of the matter. Have you got the picture now? The RIGHT picture?What about when your 1v2 count reverses and a 1st liner shoe turns into a 2nd or vice versa?Like we say in BJ, the direction of the count is more important than the count itself. Let's say a count of +8 early in the first col falls to +2 by the top half of the 2nd col. Well the new direction is - and the recent shoe is ripe for 2nd liners even though the count is still +. It's good to not put as much confidence in such a count but a couple of nervous bets are not uncalled for. It is true that in BJ the count must return to 0 counting the cut off cards while in Bac, the final count can end up anywhere. But the direction of the count tells us what the shoe is favoring lately.So do I think that 1st and 2nd liner betting is a good betting practice?Yes, under favorable conditions. I have said before that we tend to bet backwards: We bet least on the bets we win the most and most on the bets we win the least. 1st and 2nd liner betting gets us more money on the table on the very bets we win the most. Seems to me to be a step in the right direction. BUT, only do it when the math tells you to. That is key! Edited April 7, 2012 by Guest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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