NOR type for this shoe?

[Mbasics]

Hi everyone, I am new to this forum and still trying to get a handle on the shoe type for NOR program. the shoe is as follows:

B226311131

P11124411113

P211142113 1-4

B312 1-8 331

if start at begining I would use OTB4L but later the shoe get choppier and I would use S40.

or this is one of the bad shoes that we shouldn't play to begin with.

please share your thoughts.

Thank you!

[PurpleInk]

Hi everyone, I am new to this forum and still trying to get a handle on the shoe type for NOR program. the shoe is as follows:

B226311131

P11124411113

P211142113 1-4

B312 1-8 331

if start at begining I would use OTB4L but later the shoe get choppier and I would use S40.

or this is one of the bad shoes that we shouldn't play to begin with.

please share your thoughts.

Thank you!

A SAP analysis of this shoe shows that it is low in 2s but high in 1,3 and 4s. That would make F2 the prime approach - F2 eats up 1,3 and 4s. F2 nemesis is 2s which are low in this shoe. I can see how you would start out with OT as the shoe has two early 2s. But the early 6 and then the lack of 2s would push you to F2.

Don,t underestimate the information that your SAP count is giving you. Figuratively and literally, SAP gives you a wealth of information.

[Mbasics]

Thank you for your insight purpleink! If you can, would you please advise where can i find a copy of Sap and f2 manual on the site? Im new to the forum and couldnt locate Sap and f2 instructions /manuals, so i am always intrigued by Sap counts and f2, f3, they must be buried some where. Thank you!

Keith, would you please make a sticky note for Sap amd f2 f3 instructions. Thank you so much in advance.

[MVSeahog]

Thank you for your insight purpleink! If you can, would you please advise where can i find a copy of Sap and f2 manual on the site? Im new to the forum and couldnt locate Sap and f2 instructions /manuals, so i am always intrigued by Sap counts and f2, f3, they must be buried some where. Thank you!

Keith, would you please make a sticky note for Sap amd f2 f3 instructions. Thank you so much in advance.

Mbasics,

You'll find a nice overview of F2 and F3 on page 13 of the NOR manual.

Basically F2/F3 is the system play for strong side betting.

MVS

[Guest]

A SAP analysis of this shoe shows that it is low in 2s but high in 1,3 and 4s. That would make F2 the prime approach - F2 eats up 1,3 and 4s. F2 nemesis is 2s which are low in this shoe. I can see how you would start out with OT as the shoe has two early 2s. But the early 6 and then the lack of 2s would push you to F2.

Don't underestimate the information that your SAP count is giving you. Figuratively and literally, SAP gives you a wealth of information.

An excellent analysis PurpleInk!

I finally got back home but now I can't sleep so here goes:

SAP is exclusively a BTC copyrighted invention. All NOR players and for that matter All players should learn SAP and add its power to NOR or even play SAP on its own merits.

SAP reduces Baccarat to pure mathematics.

The SAP philosophy says that while all events will eventually catch up to their normal frequency of occurrence, they will not do so within the confines of a single shoe. They, in fact, do the exact opposite. Sap bets that event disparity will INCREASE over the course of a single shoe rather than normalize.

In simple words: events occurring less than normal will continue to occur less than normal and events occurring more than normal will continue occurring more than normal over the duration of a single shoe. Sap bets that event disparities will increase more than decrease. SAP uses weighted average mathematics to tell you the most likely winning bets in any given shoe. SAP zeros in on the event occuring the least relative to its normal frequency of occurrence as well as the event occurring the most. SAP illuminates your most likely winning bets and even tells you the degree of likelihood. Bet selection discipline is rewarded by SAP.

Fortunately, mathematical law dictates that you can't have all events running above normal or all events running below normal. For every event running above normal you MUST have an opposing event(s) running equally below normal. This is forunate for us because it gives us 2 maximum advantage bets.

Suppose, for instance, you are playing a shoe that has high 1's and low 2s with 3 or mores running about normal. You want to be betting ON 1's and against 2s. Therefore after every opposite you would bet opposite and after every 2 you would bet repeat. That way you are betting ON 1's and against 2's. You are betting 1's stay 1's but 2s go to 3. Get it?

BTW 1's are half of all events and 1's and 2s account for 3/4 of all events. So you would be betting on about 3/4 of the hands.

While our best SAP players did much better, the whole forum averaged about 6 units a shoe playing according to their SAP charts.

While this sounds very complex, BTC reduced SAP to a very simple but very accurate chart that any normal 9 year old could handle.

I discoverd the basis for SAP many years ago by graphing the frequncy of occurrence of all events over thousands of shoes relative to a 0 axis norm. Each event had its own color code. I then transcribed these graphs to clear acetate so that each shoe could be overlaid. We could then look at many shoes at a time by placing large quantities of overlaid shoes over a light source. This long process proved beyond all doubt, at least to me that over the duration of single shoes event counts run away from their normal frequency of occurrence (away from the 0 axis). This creates the opportuity of advantage betting in Baccarat because we play the game in single shoes. We don't care what the averages do over a thousand shoes. We don't go to a casino to play a thousand shoes. We play one shoe at a time and we need to know which bets carry an advantage in the single shoe at hand.

While the forum averaged 6 units a shoe over hundreds of shoes we used a 1,2 progression. I looked at the hit rate of only the 2 bets. They were very close to 50/50. This means we could have done just as well by simply flat betting.

SAP is the ONLY system where I recommend flat betting.

You might be thinking 6 units doesn't sound like much.

Really?

Look, you are flat betting. Your unit size can be whatever you want within the table max.

What if you are flat betting $10,000 units???

Edited January 30, 2013 by Guest

[Mbasics]

Dear Ellis, Wishing you a speedy recovery!

Thank you for the above SAP insights, I appreciated it very much. I am very new to NOR, based on my last couple weeks experiences using NOR, I find using "S40 + OTR +SAP counts" (as you described above) give me a better handle over the majority of shoes. For OTB4L and FF it's good for only a section of the shoe but can be very tricky for the shoes that changes the pattern in the middle (or due to mis-diagnose of the shoe type.) So far I find playing S40+OTR+SAP is more powerful for most of the shoe types until we are getting very good at diagnosing the right NOR types which may take more time and years of experience, do you agree? thank you again for your expert advice.

mbasic

[Guest]

Yes, particularly if you are forced to play preshuffled cards. But the other side of the coin is: when new cards are shuffled at the table from boxed card order every shoe, shoe types are far more clearly defined. That is how original Baccarat is played.

Preshuffled cards is a bastardization of real Baccarat. So is shuffle machines.

[Mbasics]

yes, the casino use shuffle master II here and clean/program them once a week to make sure they are so choppy and unpredictable so they can make a lot money off players. they also use angel eyes shoebox to read the card when dealer deals and flashing light on the box to show the ceiling camera.

here is a question always puzzles me, do you think the angel eyes or the control system can change the card in the middle of a shoe? personal I wouldn't believe they can, but whenever the dealer change, the shoe switch its pattern to an opposite ( e.g. the run will chop, or the chop will come down one or two) and kills the whole table, we always say "what a timing!" for the dealer change. if casino do cheat in baccarat, the dealer change or money change will give the control room enough time to switch the card middle of the shoe and kill the whole table, which happens in every hot shoes. what's your thought on this? thank you so much in advance.

[Guest]

yes, the casino use shuffle master II here and clean/program them once a week to make sure they are so choppy and unpredictable so they can make a lot money off players. they also use angel eyes shoebox to read the card when dealer deals and flashing light on the box to show the ceiling camera.

here is a question always puzzles me, do you think the angel eyes or the control system can change the card in the middle of a shoe? personal I wouldn't believe they can, but whenever the dealer change, the shoe switch its pattern to an opposite ( e.g. the run will chop, or the chop will come down one or two) and kills the whole table, we always say "what a timing!" for the dealer change. if casino do cheat in baccarat, the dealer change or money change will give the control room enough time to switch the card middle of the shoe and kill the whole table, which happens in every hot shoes. what's your thought on this? thank you so much in advance.

I only believe in coincidence up to a point. I've read some well written reports on how casinos cheat with these black boxes just as they did in the old days. I take these reports with a grain of salt.

BUT take a look at the other side of that coin. The cards are supposed to be random. Any tampering would make the cards non-random. Another word for non-random is biased. NOR thrives on biases.

Recognize that machines CANNOT produce random cards. If they did, Basic Strategy alone wolud kill BJ.

We WANT biases. We are using their own cheating against them. To beat either game you must live in the real world. And in the real world, whenever there is money on the table, somebody is going to cheat. And it isn't us.

Edited February 3, 2013 by Guest

[daytrader77459]

Hi, BTC members,

I just wanted to post an "easy" shoe - but would like to see how the experienced NOR players would handle the 4 iar pattern in an S40 shoe game. Take a look at this shoe:

P1111111133141

P21131242121

P411113111321

P1542

How best to play this shoe? Obviously started off w S40 - but use NOR+? Or use 123 4? Or straight to U1D2 or U1D1?

How best to handle to 3-4 or more consec losers in real-time cash games?

Also how best to handle the chgs in modes from M3?

This shoe also when played early can be played as a TBL shoe type. But sticking with S40 - would you consider chg to any other NOR strategy? And if so, when?

These are the typical "situational awareness" questions I ask myself when playing thru real cash games.

BTW - seeing the above shoe notation - is too easy. Playing without hindsight bias - and practicing as such - that is where we can learn to gain confidence and trust in NOR/SAP.

Look fwd to your input.

Thx.

Daytrader77459

[monte]

Below are five shoes that I played last Friday that I wanted to post if anyone wants to use them for practice. I did well with shoes 1,2 and 5, but shoes 3 and 4 gave me trouble. If anyone would be willing to go through those two shoes play by play for me so I can learn from them, it would be greatly appreciated. Also, I am having trouble finding a step by step instruction of how to do the SAP count. Can anyone direct me to it?

Shoe 1

P4118312

P1331121111311

P212121434

P1122211232

Shoe 2

B111121132211111

P31111211132111

P851231

Shoe 3

B114212111321

P31221821

B21155222

P1322211

Shoe 4

P1125212111111

P3132131411

P1231122234

B3212225

Shoe 5

P11511155

B121213111232

P1511212133

B11412112111

Thanks for any input you can give me!

[Guest]

Hi, BTC members,

I just wanted to post an "easy" shoe - but would like to see how the experienced NOR players would handle the 4 iar pattern in an S40 shoe game. Take a look at this shoe:

P1111111133141

P21131242121

P411113111321

P1542

How best to play this shoe? Obviously started off w S40 - but use NOR+? Or use 123 4? Or straight to U1D2 or U1D1?

How best to handle to 3-4 or more consec losers in real-time cash games?

Also how best to handle the chgs in modes from M3?

This shoe also when played early can be played as a TBL shoe type. But sticking with S40 - would you consider chg to any other NOR strategy? And if so, when?

These are the typical "situational awareness" questions I ask myself when playing thru real cash games.

BTW - seeing the above shoe notation - is too easy. Playing without hindsight bias - and practicing as such - that is where we can learn to gain confidence and trust in NOR/SAP.

Look fwd to your input.

Thx.

Daytrader77459

Well first Randi, I can see why you were confused. This is a shoe from yesteryear! Where did you come across this shoe? It is very typical of mid '90s, Atlantic City, when we were seeing 9iars either straight or ZZ or BOTH in EVERY single shoe dealt. No shoe dealt was within the mathematical norm envelope. Yet you would swear the shuffle used would produce random cards. But it clearly didn't!

You can't figure this out by math. The condition is NOT a product of Math. In fact, 9iars in every shoe is not even possible according to math. There SHOULD be 1 9iar in every 16 shoes - but they were in EVERY shoe.

This is clearly a product of Casino Shuffle Technology. We made tons of money back in those days betting an up as you win Fibonaci on TB4L. Not OTB4L mind you but TB4L. You hit a 9iar either straight or ZZ you win $40,000! Simple Arithmetic and there were 9iars in every shoe.

So OK, that was then and this is now. How would we play this shoe within the confines of NOR?

Well Randi, I would start this shoe just like you probably did: S40 starting at play 3. U1D2.

But once the starting run goes past 5, I'm going to be looking to change systems.

WHY? Because I know that runs breed runs. In fact I emphasized that fact in the first Bac book I ever wrote.

Case in point! We don't even know that the starting run was only 9. It might have been longer. That was ONLY a function of where a player happened to put the cut card. See that?

But now, let me prove to you that runs breed runs:

OK we have the starting 9iar ZZ. But later in the shoe we get a 6 and a 5 and two 4 iar ZZ.

And we get 2 straight 5iars and three 4s and a zillion 3s ALL in this same shoe.

See why I'm looking to change systems? S40 doesn't like straight runs and I know I'm going to see straight runs.

Now look at 2s. You can't count the last event because we don't know the next play. There are only 4 2s vs a norm of 9 - very common in super streak shoes.

Which NOR system likes a shortage of 2s? F2 is the ONLY one.

So, when I lose my 2 bet at play 13, I switch to F2 and stay with F2. (there have been no 2s in the shoe thus far)

Why stay with F2 and not go to F3?

Because by the time I need to make that decision I'm looking at a huge shortage of 2s. As it turns out, BTW, it wouldn't have made much difference if I had switched to F3.

So, yes, I encounter a 6 bet but I'm able to accomodate it W/O ever going negative anywhere in the shoe. And I hit +20 already at play 56 where, in view of the 6 bet I definitely would have quit. Ha, but if you stay in, you end up with +20 also. You just end up paying more commission than me.

No, we haven't practiced much with super streak shoes. That is because we seldom see them anymore. But then, up jumps the devil.

So, now you know: Anytime you start seeing 8s and 9s, you need to be thinking F, not S40.

Edited February 28, 2013 by Guest

[Guest]

BTW, the fact of a 9iar in every shoe PROVES the existence of casino shuffle technology far beyond all doubt. NOR is based on that fact. Guys like Virtuoid and Archer simply dismiss that fact by saying "Sorry, I wasn't there and didn't see that so therefore I can pretend that whole era never happened." The real reason is it doesn't fit their simplistic mathematical world. There are plenty of guys my age who played back then. Ask them! Oh but no, that spoils your naive world.

Unlike me, you weren't around for WW2 either. Does that mean it never happened?

Fine, go to any casino on a Saturday night to a full BJ table and count tens following tens out of the dealer shoe. You will soon see that Casino Shuffle Technology is still alive and well. Before long you will see 20 tens in a row which, according to the same math you use, you shouldn't see in 10 lifetimes.

We also use Casino Shuffle Technology to beat BJ just as we do in Baccarat. Denying the existence of it is like denying the existence of air. The evidence is overwhelming and indisputable for anyone to see who wants to.

Edited February 28, 2013 by Guest

[daytrader77459]

Hi, Ellis,

Great details and analysis! This shoe came off last week in one of the major Strip properties!

And, I also in fact played out of S40 into a TBL format in light of the 2 LC count. Often, especially with LC 2, I find it just much more straight forward to deal with TBL instead of F2/F3.

Either one, the O/R count and range and direction is less important than "just following the ZZ and streak runs" that Ellis described well.

Thank you.

Daytrader77459

[Guest]

Hi, Ellis,

Great details and analysis! This shoe came off last week in one of the major Strip properties!

And, I also in fact played out of S40 into a TBL format in light of the 2 LC count. Often, especially with LC 2, I find it just much more straight forward to deal with TBL instead of F2/F3.

Either one, the O/R count and range and direction is less important than "just following the ZZ and streak runs" that Ellis described well.

Thank you.

Daytrader77459

Excellent play Daytrader. I would have done the same thing. I just wanted to explain it from a NOR standpoint.

[ECD]

Hi, Ellis,

Great details and analysis! This shoe came off last week in one of the major Strip properties!

And, I also in fact played out of S40 into a TBL format in light of the 2 LC count. Often, especially with LC 2, I find it just much more straight forward to deal with TBL instead of F2/F3.

Either one, the O/R count and range and direction is less important than "just following the ZZ and streak runs" that Ellis described well.

Thank you.

Daytrader77459

Great play Randi. I have also seen some shoes on the strip which start s40 but then scream for TBL. As long as those 2iar are low, I prefer TBL over F.