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I'm always looking for shoes to practice on. I decided to use the simulated shoes over on the Wizard of Odds site. You can find them here on this page down under Simulations. http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/

Here is what the website says about the shoes:

Before you go and waste your money with a betting system in the casinos, test it out on my 250,000 simulated eight-deck shoes. They were created using a Mersenne Twister random number generator and a Fisher Yates shuffle.

Each file has 25,000 shoes and is 4.06 MB in size. Each line in each file is an individual shoe, starting with the shoe number, and followed by the outcome of each hand (P/B/T). The files are comma delimited for easy loading into Excel.

I'm using the simulation 1 file and have worked the first 40 shoes.

The results are 23 shoes won and 17 shoes lost, for a shoe win rate of 57.5%.

I won 150 units and lost 81 units for a net win before commission of +69 units.

That's an average of +1.725 units per shoe. Let's just say for simplicity, +1 unit per shoe net of commission.

This is not too great, but it's better than losing. I've gotten better and learned/had clarified a few more things since I started working the shoes, so I'm going to work the next 40 shoes and see how MDB fares.

The way I work the shoe, so it resembles live play by not seeing the whole shoe, is this:

I downloaded the file to excel. Each row is a shoe. What I do is highlight the row and change the font color to white, that way I can't see the whole shoe. Then I select the first cell where I can see the result in the top bar. I then make my bet for the next play and then hit the arrow button to the next cell to the right to see the result. Works ok.

Edit: I forgot to point out, I started each shoe at play 2 using S1 and switching systems based on SAP.

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Ok, did you use any money managment? Let's say if you hit -4 or -5, finish the shoe with any positive result.

I used the MDB MM rules. +5 stop win unless I hit +5 on or before play 15 then play on with half-decade MM, but capture +4. Always out at -5 or out at -4 facing a 2 bet. I only had 5 of the forty shoes get ahead early and go over +5.

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Your practice on those shoes seems like a very good idea. Few are willing to practice like that. I have been playing a few shoes with live dealers on bogart casino which is part of bet Phoenix and I have been having an average pretty close to yours only with waaaayy less shoes than your practice. Im not playing perfectly but im doing my best. I think the shoes are regular cards (not pre-shuffled). My scores have been +5, +3, -5, -5, 0, +7 & +3 for an average of +1.1 units. Im happy it is positive but I'm struggling to get to +5 average. I started all these in shoes that all had several events so i could start with my sap charts filled in. Im hoping with more practice I can avoid any mistakes ive been making. Does anyone else have any results to share?Best regards& luck,jim

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I worked the next 40 shoes in the simulation 1 file from Wizard of Odds. (Shoe #41-80)

Shoe win rate was a little better at 67.5%. I had 27 wins and 13 losses.

One thing I did different was stop at 0 or breakeven after the first column if I had hit 0 two or three times already in the shoe. I had five breakeven shoes. I recorded these 0 score shoes as wins. That made the shoe win rate higher than the first 40 shoes, but my total net units won was less. I only netted +59 units before commission for an average of +1.475 units per shoe. For simplicity it would probably have been just slightly less than +1 unit per shoe average with commission.

Obviously I’m starting at play 2 on all these shoes, so I could have drastically different results if I’d wait to see a few events and start with an established SAP count. Not sure, but I’m hoping that would be the case.

I’d really like to have a program to analyze different scenarios. Hopefully that’s something in the works that we’ll all be able to try out.

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Hi Gman

I will download it myself too.

I was wondering what change would it make if

A: you Aimed for 2 units and NOT 5 (which I think we will eventually realize is too many). I am sure two would mean exiting a lot earlier for many shoes and keeping you out of the hot waters.

B: count the ties in the making of the game so that B B T B B P would be counted as two 2's and not a four.

And C: wait for at least 1/2 the shoe (you should actually wait for 2/3 of the shoe before jumping in) so that you can see what is happening and then making a much better educated decission for the next bet.

I think these will make the changes required for much better results.

Thanks for your efforts gman.

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I'm always looking for shoes to practice on. I decided to use the simulated shoes over on the Wizard of Odds site. You can find them here on this page down under Simulations. http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/

Here is what the website says about the shoes:

I'm using the simulation 1 file and have worked the first 40 shoes.

The results are 23 shoes won and 17 shoes lost, for a shoe win rate of 57.5%.

I won 150 units and lost 81 units for a net win before commission of +69 units.

That's an average of +1.725 units per shoe. Let's just say for simplicity, +1 unit per shoe net of commission.

This is not too great, but it's better than losing. I've gotten better and learned/had clarified a few more things since I started working the shoes, so I'm going to work the next 40 shoes and see how MDB fares.

The way I work the shoe, so it resembles live play by not seeing the whole shoe, is this:

I downloaded the file to excel. Each row is a shoe. What I do is highlight the row and change the font color to white, that way I can't see the whole shoe. Then I select the first cell where I can see the result in the top bar. I then make my bet for the next play and then hit the arrow button to the next cell to the right to see the result. Works ok.

Edit: I forgot to point out, I started each shoe at play 2 using S1 and switching systems based on SAP.

Well, I've often said, don't play simulater (RG) shoes except maybe to practice getting your systems down pat. While System selection is our greatest asset, it is totally meaningless in RG shoes. So is table selection. So is whatever system you play.

The Wizard is a great Mathematician but a horrible player. He doesn't even grasp the basics of winning play - otherwise he wouldn't be posting RG shoes.

Also, he doesn't grasp the basics of how players play. His 3 iar, for instance is a 4iar to the whole Baccarat world. His 3 iar is 4 vertical circles or 3 Repeats iar. Therefor, all of his frequency of events computations are off by a factor of 100%.

He also doesn't realize that players play in individual shoes. Nobody plays continuous Baccarat in the real world. His 10iar for instance could be one shoe ending in 5 Banks and another shoe beginning with 5 banks. This throws off his frequency of events by a second huge factor particularly looking at his longer runs.

The Wizard applaudes himself for creating fictional random shoes.. That misses the whole point of how players play in the real world and what Baccarat systems are based on. He is playing in a fictional world. Like most Mathematicians, he has no clue of real world Baccarat. Statistics generated playing RGs are totally meaningless.

I consider RGs a complete waste of time. I consider the Wizard a complete waste of time. If he was teaching golf he would be telling you to forget wind and weather altogether - and that would be another complete waste of time.

Watch my lips: Whether regular or preshuffled cards, you will NEVER play random cards in a casino. Think about it: If the cards were random, casino profits would be reduced to commission because it wouldn't matter a hoot whether you bet P or B or how much. The cards are random for crying out loud. In such a world, casinos would drop Baccarat altogether as non profitable. They certainly cannot live on 1.25% commission. But in the real world, casinos could drop commission altogether as Horseshoe, Vegas demonstrated and Baccarat would STILL be their #1 profit maker.

Guys, stop wasting your time. If you don't have a collection of your own real shoes to play, play Norm's.

Also, Zuma has real shoes but they are taken out of sequential order making them almost meaningless but not as meaningless as an RG.

Sorry, but your 1 unit average against RGs is totally meaningless. Eventually you will break even no matter how you play. They are RGs for crying out loud. That is what "random" means.

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I used to sell a tester of 500 shoes from the late '90s already on score cards and ready to play listed by casino name and in sequential order - about a dozen different casinos all in a 3 ring binder and all copyable. I sold it to members for $50. Today I can't even get copies made and put in binders and shipped for $50. But that is not why I stopped selling it. I stopped because the games were outdated. They were far even more biased than today's shoes at most casinos. But they would certainly be a whole lot better than RG shoes or Zumma shoes. Practice on them would be far more meaningful.

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Hi Gman

I will download it myself too.

I was wondering what change would it make if

A: you Aimed for 2 units and NOT 5 (which I think we will eventually realize is too many). I am sure two would mean exiting a lot earlier for many shoes and keeping you out of the hot waters.

B: count the ties in the making of the game so that B B T B B P would be counted as two 2's and not a four.

And C: wait for at least 1/2 the shoe (you should actually wait for 2/3 of the shoe before jumping in) so that you can see what is happening and then making a much better educated decission for the next bet.

I think these will make the changes required for much better results.

Thanks for your efforts gman.

Hmm, if you wanted to play a 4 as two 2s, why would you need a tie in the middle??? Just start over after 2s. So what would you do against a 6? Start over 3 times? That would put you at -9. I think you need to rethink what you are saying.

Even +2 would be too high for an RG. You will eventually break even against an RG.

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Well, I've often said, don't play simulater (RG) shoes except maybe to practice getting your systems down pat. While System selection is our greatest asset, it is totally meaningless in RG shoes. So is table selection. So is whatever system you play.

The Wizard is a great Mathematician but a horrible player. He doesn't even grasp the basics of winning play - otherwise he wouldn't be posting RG shoes.

Also, he doesn't grasp the basics of how players play. His 3 iar, for instance is a 4iar to the whole Baccarat world. His 3 iar is 4 vertical circles or 3 Repeats iar. Therefor, all of his frequency of events computations are off by a factor of 100%.

He also doesn't realize that players play in individual shoes. Nobody plays continuous Baccarat in the real world. His 10iar for instance could be one shoe ending in 5 Banks and another shoe beginning with 5 banks. This throws off his frequency of events by a second huge factor particularly looking at his longer runs.

The Wizard applaudes himself for creating fictional random shoes.. That misses the whole point of how players play in the real world and what Baccarat systems are based on. He is playing in a fictional world. Like most Mathematicians, he has no clue of real world Baccarat. Statistics generated playing RGs are totally meaningless.

I consider RGs a complete waste of time. I consider the Wizard a complete waste of time. If he was teaching golf he would be telling you to forget wind and weather altogether - and that would be another complete waste of time.

Watch my lips: Whether regular or preshuffled cards, you will NEVER play random cards in a casino. Think about it: If the cards were random, casino profits would be reduced to commission because it wouldn't matter a hoot whether you bet P or B or how much. The cards are random for crying out loud. In such a world, casinos would drop Baccarat altogether as non profitable. They certainly cannot live on 1.25% commission. But in the real world, casinos could drop commission altogether as Horseshoe, Vegas demonstrated and Baccarat would STILL be their #1 profit maker.

Guys, stop wasting your time. If you don't have a collection of your own real shoes to play, play Norm's.

Also, Zuma has real shoes but they are taken out of sequential order making them almost meaningless but not as meaningless as an RG.

Sorry, but your 1 unit average against RGs is totally meaningless. Eventually you will break even no matter how you play. They are RGs for crying out loud. That is what "random" means.

Whew !!!! . He had me worried there for a minute.

Thanks, Ellis

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I'm always looking for shoes to practice on. I decided to use the simulated shoes over on the Wizard of Odds site. You can find them here on this page down under Simulations. http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/

Here is what the website says about the shoes:

I'm using the simulation 1 file and have worked the first 40 shoes.

The results are 23 shoes won and 17 shoes lost, for a shoe win rate of 57.5%.

I won 150 units and lost 81 units for a net win before commission of +69 units.

That's an average of +1.725 units per shoe. Let's just say for simplicity, +1 unit per shoe net of commission.

This is not too great, but it's better than losing. I've gotten better and learned/had clarified a few more things since I started working the shoes, so I'm going to work the next 40 shoes and see how MDB fares.

The way I work the shoe, so it resembles live play by not seeing the whole shoe, is this:

I downloaded the file to excel. Each row is a shoe. What I do is highlight the row and change the font color to white, that way I can't see the whole shoe. Then I select the first cell where I can see the result in the top bar. I then make my bet for the next play and then hit the arrow button to the next cell to the right to see the result. Works ok.

Edit: I forgot to point out, I started each shoe at play 2 using S1 and switching systems based on SAP.

Hi Gman,

I really like your practise method with EXCEL.

This also seems to be a viable way to preserve our own shoes.

If only we had macros to translate BTC shorthand (i.e. P2211) to comma delimited format (P,P,B,B,P,P) or directly into EXCEL.

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For the record:

I should have been clear that my working those shoes would NOT be any kind of definitive proof of how MDB performed!

I was simply showing what I had done in my practice and pointing out one way to practice working shoes. It's a good way to learn disciplined play, such as when to quit a shoe at your stop loss, and how to continue play when you get a hot shoe early. It's all for PRACTICE!

I defer all knowledge about "random" shoes and RNG shoes and the Wizard to Ellis. I'm just practicing the methods against a set of shoes and was posting my results just for kicks and curiosity for anyone. It's difficult to find a large sample of shoes to work and these just happened to be one I found.

I keep forgetting to put my disclaimer at the bottom of my posts. I am not a teacher on here. I like posting here to participate in and keep the discussions going. I'm still learning just like most on here.

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For the record:

I should have been clear that my working those shoes would NOT be any kind of definitive proof of how MDB performed!

I was simply showing what I had done in my practice and pointing out one way to practice working shoes. It's a good way to learn disciplined play, such as when to quit a shoe at your stop loss, and how to continue play when you get a hot shoe early. It's all for PRACTICE!

I defer all knowledge about "random" shoes and RNG shoes and the Wizard to Ellis. I'm just practicing the methods against a set of shoes and was posting my results just for kicks and curiosity for anyone. It's difficult to find a large sample of shoes to work and these just happened to be one I found.

I keep forgetting to put my disclaimer at the bottom of my posts. I am not a teacher on here. I like posting here to participate in and keep the discussions going. I'm still learning just like most on here.

Gman,

I was using the W of O baccarat simulator for practice also and yes, Ellis is totally correct, the RNG pattern cannot be beat long term. I was more concerned about honing proper playing skill (especially when 4D was in vogue) than actual scoring.

So, that begs the question: To practice MDB / SAP "at casino speed" should we go on live sites like Black Orchid?

Glenn

Regards,

Glenn

"Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine per cent perspiration...do your homework" Thomas A. Edison

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Guys, stop wasting your time. If you don't have a collection of your own real shoes to play, play Norm's.

I've played them, pretty much same results as from the Wizard shoes I played. And it's already been established those are Vegas, preshuffled shoes.

My conclusion, based on my practice, is that starting a shoe at play 2, with S1 is basically close to a 50/50 proposition for +5. It appears to me that the better solution is to stick to waiting till the shoe is established and using the appropriate system for what the shoe is presenting.

DISCLAIMER: This is just my opinion. I'm not a teacher, just a learning member.

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I have just completed playing 10 shoes @ St. Louis, Missouri Lumiere and River City casino.

The cards are regular cards not preshuffled.

Won 7 shoes and lost 2 shoes.

Won 5 units on 5 of the shoes, 2 units on 1 shoe, 1 unit on 1 shoe.

Lost 5 units each on the 2 losing shoes.

One shoe was up 4 units several times and then back to 1 or 2 units, ended shoe at 0 units for a push.

I wait until I see 3 or 4 events, or if still unsure of what system to play I will wait.

I had 1 shoe that went to +4 units 3 times and then I went back down to 0 units and quit @ this point.

I stay OTR until I lose a bet, then switch back to primary progression betting.

I am not quite comfortable start betting after the 1st event or after a 4 IAR, although I did see 1 shoe that started off with 9 banks IAR, in hindsight I realized that I could have won 5 units very quickly if I have started after a 4 IAR.

I tend to pay attention to how the other players are winning or mostly losing @ the tables and continue to buy-in again and again.

Perhaps I was just lucky on this trip, however the longer I played the more comfortable I felt playing the MDB system and winning baccarat.

I have 1 question in closing, should I stop after the next losing bet if I continue to win 3 or 4 units in a shoe multiple times during the shoe, but can't seem to get to 5 units?

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Nice win trillion!

A net +18 units in 9 shoes is a pretty good win. Your shoe win rate was better than my practice results.

I have 1 question in closing, should I stop after the next losing bet if I continue to win 3 or 4 units in a shoe multiple times during the shoe, but can't seem to get to 5 units?

As far as this goes, my suggestion would be that if you are in the third column and have run up to 3 or 4 units multiple times, I would pick the conservative +3 and stop when you hit that. Just my suggestion. I've been doing that if I keep hitting 0 many times, I'm thinking about getting out next time I hit 0 anywhere near the end of the second column or top of third column. That's my preference.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Played in St.Louis this past Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

On Wednesday played @ Lumiere Place casino and lost the first 2 shoes @ -5 and -4 units, next 2 shoes won +4 and +5 units and shoe #5, I stopped @ even or 0 units. Could never get up overall and decided to quit for the day and try again on Thursday.

Played Thursday @ River City casino with a fellow NOR player and won 9 out of 11 shoes.

Shoe #1 +6 units

Shoe #2 +4 units

Shoe #3 +4 units

Shoe #4 +4 units

Shoe #5 +7 units

Shoe #6 -6 units

Shoe #7 +6 units

Shoe #8 +5 units

Shoe #9 +5 units

Shoe #10 +5 units

Shoe #11 -2 units

Friday returned to River City and played 4 shoes, winning 3 out of 4 shoes

Shoe #12 +4 units

Shoe #13 +4 units

Shoe #14 +5 units

Shoe #15 -5 units

For a grand total of +46 units, if my math is correct. Extremely please with how MDB performed.

In closing I do have a couple of question I would like to have the answers for to verify that I have been playing correctly.

Question #1 When I am playing S4 and I win a secondary progression OTR after the losing bet of 2 in a row, According to the rules on S4 it states that you continue OTR after the 3 in a row that the 3 goes to 4 while playing the S4 strategy. Is this correct?

Question #2 If I have a winning bet on banker and it is a 3 card winning dragon on the banker which is a push. Do I count this as a winning bet and count this as a win For the +5 strategy?

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Played in St.Louis this past Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

On Wednesday played @ Lumiere Place casino and lost the first 2 shoes @ -5 and -4 units, next 2 shoes won +4 and +5 units and shoe #5, I stopped @ even or 0 units. Could never get up overall and decided to quit for the day and try again on Thursday.

Played Thursday @ River City casino with a fellow NOR player and won 9 out of 11 shoes.

Shoe #1 +6 units

Shoe #2 +4 units

Shoe #3 +4 units

Shoe #4 +4 units

Shoe #5 +7 units

Shoe #6 -6 units

Shoe #7 +6 units

Shoe #8 +5 units

Shoe #9 +5 units

Shoe #10 +5 units

Shoe #11 -2 units

Friday returned to River City and played 4 shoes, winning 3 out of 4 shoes

Shoe #12 +4 units

Shoe #13 +4 units

Shoe #14 +5 units

Shoe #15 -5 units

For a grand total of +46 units, if my math is correct. Extremely please with how MDB performed.

In closing I do have a couple of question I would like to have the answers for to verify that I have been playing correctly.

Question #1 When I am playing S4 and I win a secondary progression OTR after the losing bet of 2 in a row, According to the rules on S4 it states that you continue OTR after the 3 in a row that the 3 goes to 4 while playing the S4 strategy. Is this correct?

Question #2 If I have a winning bet on banker and it is a 3 card winning dragon on the banker which is a push. Do I count this as a winning bet and count this as a win For the +5 strategy?

Great reporting Trillion!

#1: Yes as a general rule. The exception is if you are seeing very high 3s, you need to play them.

#2: Yes, treat it as a win even though it was actually a push.

As for stop wins below 5. Gman's reply is good. When you hit your highest score the 2nd time you need to consider quitting depending on how late it is in the shoe. But when you hit your highest score the 3rd time - always quit.

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Gman, I'm wondering if your poorer results might be because you are mostly practicing on Norm's 60 shoes???

I happen to kinow that at MGM, where Norm played most of his Vegas shoes, that the casino NEVER changed cards on him.

Therefore, most of his posted shoes are preshuffled reused cards rather than new preshuffled cards.

I'm also looking at your high primary prog failures vs your high secondary prog success.

My knee jerk reaction is we should reduce the primary prog bets and increase the secondary prog bets.

Hmm, take a look at reducing your primary prog bets from 1,2 to 0,0 while increasing your secondary prog from 0123 to 0246.

Guys, this is only for preshuffled cards. We don't seem to have this poor primary hit rate with regular cards.

No3bet, please also take a look at this. Are you playing solely preshuffled cards?

Also, can you post or send me your test shoes using our short cut method? I can answer your questions better if I'm looking at the same shoes you are looking at.

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Mike was just getting me lulled into super chop preshuffled Vegas shoes when yesterday Keith called in these two preshuffled shoes from Palace Station:

P2131213125431

B43511361143161

I didn't use 20 plays per col so you could see all the runs.

2 6s with 2 5s and 3 4s and 6 3s is darn near impossible.. Also note the sporadic 1's.

Keith ended up betting straight repeats and scored +15.

His other shoe there was:

P1111111111312411291

Hmm, an 11 ZZ with a 9 straight in only half a shoe. TB4L all the way.

These shoes are FIXED Designer shoes. That stuff simply can't happen randomly.

Sure, you can get this stuff one in 500,000. But, when you see this stuff every time you sit down, somebody is cheating!

The lesson here is even with preshuffled cards, when you see a super strong bias, forget everything and go with it. For US it is a gift!

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Here's a question others may be wondering about:

this is what you written MDB

When our 0 bet wins (the 3 went to 4) We bet the remainder of our prog (123) that 3s will stay 3 (Against the run) (ATR) until we win.

A win completes our secondary prog and we are back to betting our 1,2 on opposites.

When our 0 bet loses (the 3 stayed 3) we bet 123 that 3s go to 4 until we win.

WHAT I INTERPRETE THAT

you will have to make 0 bet and then base on that win or loose, we have to wait until that 3 event happen to make 123 process? or do we continue to bet? and if wen continue to bet right after, what process we use and what bet placement?

regards

Correct, for S1 your secondary prog only makes bets after 3 iars. Best to put your secondary prog entries in red at least at first.

But after all secondary prog entries, win or lose, we go right back to primary betting starting over at 1 unit.

So if your 0 bet wins your next bet is 1 OTR and your next secondary prog bet is 1.

If your 0 bet loses you are back to your primary prog at 1 and your next secondary prog is a 1 bet.

You always go back to primary prog betting after all secondary prog entries.

This is a good question for the forum so I'll copy it there.

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My latest results playing MDB this past weekend, @ Horseshoe, New Albany, In, Hollywood @ Lawrenceburg,Indiana and Horseshoe @ Cincinnatti, Ohio

Played Friday @ Horseshoe in Indiana and was +4, +5 units playing 2 shoes.

Played Saturday night @ Hollywood in Lawrenceburg, Indiana and was -5 units after waiting about 1 hour to begin playing a shoe, only 1 table was open .

Played Saturday night @ Horseshoe in Cincinnatti,Ohio -3 ,+4, and -5 units playing 3 shoes with only 2 tables open.

Played Sunday back @ Horseshoe in New Albany, Indiana and was +2 units, 0 units,0 units, -4 units and +15 units playing 2 different tables.

Played a total of 11 tables and won +13 units total for the weekend.

All the tables were regular cards and I have yet to find preshuffled card @ the casinos that I have played @ in St.Louis ,Missouri, Cincinnatti, Ohio, Lawrenceburg, Indiana and New Albany, Indiana casinos.

In closing I have been happy with my overall results, just wish my average wins per shoe were higher. I will think about attending the upcoming Las Vegas Crawl on August 9,2014 to see if I can improve my game playing MDBG.

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