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MDB Singapore members --- This is your thread


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Just tonight I had another new player from Singapore at a seminar. Every week we are getting more and more players from Singapore. So I decided to set up your own thread. Here you can share ideas and make plans to network with each other.... It is awesome to know we are making a dent in the games in Asia too.

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That's a great idea Steve:) Let me be the first to introduce myself.

Hi guys, this is Mark here from Singapore. I've been a NOR / MDB member since the beginning of October. After studying and practicing online for a couple of weeks, I finally hit the casinos last weekend. My first 2 trips were not good. I hit my stop loss of -8 units and just hung around to observe for a few hours. What I noticed was that shoes were all over the place with no clear pattern. A shoe usually changes bias at least once or twice (about 75% of the time) and it can go from neutral to streaky then back to neutral. Or after a streak it turns choppy and vice versa.

It seems like its random but MDB+ doesn't really work as well as it should. Maybe because it is not exactly pre-shuffled cards like in Vegas. Here's how it works in RWS for the $25 No Touch tables. The cards come in a bundle. They are 8-decks, orange and blue. They alternate the decks after each shoe ends. When the blue deck finishes, they will retrieve the orange deck from the shuffle machine to use for the next shoe and then recycle the blue deck back into the machine. This cycle continues throughout the whole day until they change the cards around 6 am every morning. Before every shoe starts, the dealer will take the first card out and burn the next few cards in the shoe according to the face value of the first card. E.g If the first card he draws is a 9, he will remove the next 9 cards and burn them before even dealing the first hand. I see them do this even for the min $200 Touch tables.

Question for Ellis and the more experienced guys to answer, have you encountered this kinda card prep before? How does this affect the bias of the shoe and the way we should approach it? If the shoe starts off every morning designer pre-shuffled, but is recycled throughout the whole day and also subjected to the random first card burn procedure, does it partially negate the purpose and effectiveness of having designer pre-shuffled shoes in the first place?

Earlier on when I said MDB+ doesn't seem to be as effective here as compared with the feedback from the other parts of the forum. That's because I've seen quite a few instances of 5+, 6+, 7+ of a kind without a neighbouring event. This mostly happens with 2s and 3s. I have been victim to some of them. Just last night I saw a 10+ of a kind, 10 2+s without a 1 between. No doubt these situations happen the in the minority, but it is a significant minority. About 20-30% of the time, according to my rough estimation.

So in this kind of environment, what should the NOR / MDB player do? Hope to have some advice and ideas from Professor Ellis and the veterans, and also those in Singapore and Malaysia. Some ideas I thought of was to be way more selective, maybe start MDB+ only when we have a trigger of 3+ and 4+ of a kind instead of 2+. What I also found useful from my observations is to bet that the shoe will change bias. If it starts out Streaky and have very few 1s as Least Common event in the first 20-30 hands, towards the middle and second half of the shoe it tends to turn choppy for 10 to 20 hands. And vice versa too. If you catch that right, you can get 10+ units quite easily. I managed to do just that and made 30 units last night. Some good news at last!

All said though, I'm still very green and these are my observations after 3 visits to RWS singapore. Hope other fellow NOR / MDB members could share their experiences and observations as well. Especially those in Singapore and Asia pacific!

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Hi Mark & bighorn,

This is Kevin from Singapore. Nice to meet you guys.

What Mark said is really important for us. That means we need to observe the pattern of the shoes in the casino first before start betting.

But anyway, i just joined a few days ago so i cann't help to solve your problem. I'd like to hear from those Professional players' comment on your problem too.

Regards,

Kevin

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That's a great idea Steve:) Let me be the first to introduce myself.

Hi guys, this is Mark here from Singapore. I've been a NOR / MDB member since the beginning of October. After studying and practicing online for a couple of weeks, I finally hit the casinos last weekend. My first 2 trips were not good. I hit my stop loss of -8 units and just hung around to observe for a few hours. What I noticed was that shoes were all over the place with no clear pattern. A shoe usually changes bias at least once or twice (about 75% of the time) and it can go from neutral to streaky then back to neutral. Or after a streak it turns choppy and vice versa.

It seems like its random but MDB+ doesn't really work as well as it should. Maybe because it is not exactly pre-shuffled cards like in Vegas. Here's how it works in RWS for the $25 No Touch tables. The cards come in a bundle. They are 8-decks, orange and blue. They alternate the decks after each shoe ends. When the blue deck finishes, they will retrieve the orange deck from the shuffle machine to use for the next shoe and then recycle the blue deck back into the machine. This cycle continues throughout the whole day until they change the cards around 6 am every morning. Before every shoe starts, the dealer will take the first card out and burn the next few cards in the shoe according to the face value of the first card. E.g If the first card he draws is a 9, he will remove the next 9 cards and burn them before even dealing the first hand. I see them do this even for the min $200 Touch tables.

Question for Ellis and the more experienced guys to answer, have you encountered this kinda card prep before? How does this affect the bias of the shoe and the way we should approach it? If the shoe starts off every morning designer pre-shuffled, but is recycled throughout the whole day and also subjected to the random first card burn procedure, does it partially negate the purpose and effectiveness of having designer pre-shuffled shoes in the first place?

Earlier on when I said MDB+ doesn't seem to be as effective here as compared with the feedback from the other parts of the forum. That's because I've seen quite a few instances of 5+, 6+, 7+ of a kind without a neighbouring event. This mostly happens with 2s and 3s. I have been victim to some of them. Just last night I saw a 10+ of a kind, 10 2+s without a 1 between. No doubt these situations happen the in the minority, but it is a significant minority. About 20-30% of the time, according to my rough estimation.

So in this kind of environment, what should the NOR / MDB player do? Hope to have some advice and ideas from Professor Ellis and the veterans, and also those in Singapore and Malaysia. Some ideas I thought of was to be way more selective, maybe start MDB+ only when we have a trigger of 3+ and 4+ of a kind instead of 2+. What I also found useful from my observations is to bet that the shoe will change bias. If it starts out Streaky and have very few 1s as Least Common event in the first 20-30 hands, towards the middle and second half of the shoe it tends to turn choppy for 10 to 20 hands. And vice versa too. If you catch that right, you can get 10+ units quite easily. I managed to do just that and made 30 units last night. Some good news at last!

All said though, I'm still very green and these are my observations after 3 visits to RWS singapore. Hope other fellow NOR / MDB members could share their experiences and observations as well. Especially those in Singapore and Asia pacific!

Mark, welcome to the forum. Almost all of the no touch games in Vegas are similar -- preshuffled cards are alternated throughout the day and changed out once per 24 hour period. Almost all of the touch games are also preshuffled cards, but they are changed out for each game. What I have found, so far, is that MDB+ does extraordinarily well with the touch games. For the no touch games, MDB+ is a little less reliable. I am still winning more no touch games than I am losing, but most of the failed progressions are appearing on the no touch games. Just as you describe, the no touch games often have periods of great consistency (bias), although they sometimes change during the shoe.

You can try playing those games using one of the NOR approaches, based on what you are seeing. OTBL, TBL and S40 are great for such a situation. Identify the bias, play the matching system and keep a tight trailing stop so you don't get killed when the shoe switches. For example, that section you had of 10 2+s would likely have been killed by OTBL. When it no longer is winning you can switch to TBL, or just quit with your profit in the shoe. Ellis had an excellent post just in the last day or so about how to use what you are seeing to select the best way to play. I look to play MDB+ mostly because it wins the most and is perfectly suited for large units, but I am always ready to play another way based on what is actually happening. There are a lot of great tools within NOR, MDB and throughout the forum.

By the way, it would be great it you could post a shoe or two of what you are seeing. It will help all of us better see what you are up against, and give you better feedback.

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Mark, welcome to the forum. Almost all of the no touch games in Vegas are similar -- preshuffled cards are alternated throughout the day and changed out once per 24 hour period. Almost all of the touch games are also preshuffled cards, but they are changed out for each game. What I have found, so far, is that MDB+ does extraordinarily well with the touch games. For the no touch games, MDB+ is a little less reliable. I am still winning more no touch games than I am losing, but most of the failed progressions are appearing on the no touch games. Just as you describe, the no touch games often have periods of great consistency (bias), although they sometimes change during the shoe.

You can try playing those games using one of the NOR approaches, based on what you are seeing. OTBL, TBL and S40 are great for such a situation. Identify the bias, play the matching system and keep a tight trailing stop so you don't get killed when the shoe switches. For example, that section you had of 10 2+s would likely have been killed by OTBL. When it no longer is winning you can switch to TBL, or just quit with your profit in the shoe. Ellis had an excellent post just in the last day or so about how to use what you are seeing to select the best way to play. I look to play MDB+ mostly because it wins the most and is perfectly suited for large units, but I am always ready to play another way based on what is actually happening. There are a lot of great tools within NOR, MDB and throughout the forum.

By the way, it would be great it you could post a shoe or two of what you are seeing. It will help all of us better see what you are up against, and give you better feedback.

http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8225

The O&T system Ellis developed might work out well for what you are seeing.

My casino has the exact same shoe set up and I use the O&T often. Honestly one of the best and simplest systems I've ever used - highly recommend it. At least at my casino. Just watch out for high 2s and 1s!

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http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=8225

The O&T system Ellis developed might work out well for what you are seeing.

My casino has the exact same shoe set up and I use the O&T often. Honestly one of the best and simplest systems I've ever used - highly recommend it. At least at my casino. Just watch out for high 2s and 1s!

Thanks for the suggestions ztomsk and way2fast. Its great to know that the challenges we are facing is similar and you guys have managed to find successful ways to overcome them. I will definitely post a few shoes soon so that we can compare notes.

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Right guys, post some shoes using our short cut method.

such as :

B1232314112

P213231233

Which means:

P PP BBB PP BBB p BBBB P B PP

PP B PPP BB PPP B PP BBB PPP

Just be sure your columns add up to 20 plays each except for the last col.

Right, you could stick to the touch tables and play MDB+ which is mostly designed for new preshuffled cards.

Some lack the patience required for that. It is hard for some players to sit there and not bet.

Another good option for when you are seeing no consistent biases is Net Betting.

Net Betting does not depend on biases. It merely reacts to chop and streak.

But there ARE important tricks to it.

If you guys could post a few shoes, I could Net Bet them for you and show you the ins and outs.

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Right guys, post some shoes using our short cut method.

such as :

B1232314112

P213231233

Which means:

P PP BBB PP BBB p BBBB P B PP

PP B PPP BB PPP B PP BBB PPP

Just be sure your columns add up to 20 plays each except for the last col.

Right, you could stick to the touch tables and play MDB+ which is mostly designed for new preshuffled cards.

Some lack the patience required for that. It is hard for some players to sit there and not bet.

Another good option for when you are seeing no consistent biases is Net Betting.

Net Betting does not depend on biases. It merely reacts to chop and streak.

But there ARE important tricks to it.

If you guys could post a few shoes, I could Net Bet them for you and show you the ins and outs.

Ok here are some of the shoes from RWS Singapore

1) P4211525

B211411112123

P5121312131

P11314

2) B414122222

P313346

B12115213122

3) P1112111214221

B22113137

P6131231111

B3

4) P14212122113

B11112116123

B11112112118

B21111

5) P34122611

P2332211114

B212

6) B31342331

B5331121121

P123511111111

P11111

7) P113242133

P13212911

B2131131111

8) P111431122112

P1152371

B311312212211

B2

9) B4414115

B242213141

P31211121111212

P1111

10) P121212121331

P11412231311

P31211813

P111

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Mark, thanks for posting some of your Singapore shoes. Are these all from no touch games with "reused" cards?

The reason I ask is that these shoes do much better with MDB+ than I have experienced with Vegas no touch games. By my count, there are 59 MDB+ signals in these 10 shoes. 57 of them win and 2 lose, for a net +43 units and 96% win rate. That win rate is about what the same as I am experiencing with the touch games.

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Mark, thanks for posting some of your Singapore shoes. Are these all from no touch games with "reused" cards?

The reason I ask is that these shoes do much better with MDB+ than I have experienced with Vegas no touch games. By my count, there are 59 MDB+ signals in these 10 shoes. 57 of them win and 2 lose, for a net +43 units and 96% win rate. That win rate is about what the same as I am experiencing with the touch games.

Hi way2fast, yes these are all from no touch games with reused cards. New cards are changed only after every one or two days.

Wow, I didn't realize MDB+ works so well on these. I will review those shoes again and practice using MDB+. Hopefully I can get something close to your results!

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Hi way2fast, yes these are all from no touch games with reused cards. New cards are changed only after every one or two days.

Wow, I didn't realize MDB+ works so well on these. I will review those shoes again and practice using MDB+. Hopefully I can get something close to your results!

Hmm, yes, an interesting experiment. 96% on no touch games is outstanding - even a little better than I remember you getting in the Vegas touch games way2fast.

Let me remind you guys that Touch vs no touch are not the only variables. Each casino has its own card orders in touch games as well as its own new cards schedule in no touch games. Plus each has its own shuffle machine settings.

For instance some Vegas casinos change the cards on no touch tables every 4 hours and othere every 24 hours.

Plus high stakes room schedules may differ from open floor schedules.

While I think we can say that "generally" and "mathematically" MDB+ works best in touch games, we have seen casino situations where it has also worked very well in no touch. And we have seen situations where MDB+ did not work well in no touch as well as at least one situation where MDB+ did not work well in touch. I remind you of the first table I played in the crawl - suppossedly a touch 14 player table but nevertheless we got a perfect TB4L shoe with no 2s whatsoever. I'm still today suspicious about that game. I think we may have been set up.

But anyway, my point is that in Baccarat we can never totally count on anything - only generalities. We always have to go by exactly what we see on that day at that casino at that time. I wish I had that first crawl game to play over again. It was a perfect TB4L +30 game.

We have played Singapore shoes before and we noted back then that they seemed even more random than Vegas. It could very well be that current Singapore tables are even more susceptible to MDB+ than Vegas. If so, I'm sure our Singapore players would like to know.

Think I may be a little paranoid thinking that Vegas game may have been rigged? Well think about it - a game with no 2s means that 2 went to 3 18 times. The odds of that are the same is flipping a coin 18 times and coming up with tails each time - more than a little strange.

Edited by Ellis
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I have received a couple PM's asking how to play MDB+ on mackem's shoes, so here is an example for one of the games he posted. I initially just went through his list and in a few minutes could identify the MDB+ signals and whether each one won or not. For the attached shoe, i wrote out all the plays and marked the signals just like i would in a casino. I chose this shoe because it has several signals, both for streaks and ZZs. This shoe had 8 signals, and each one of them won for a 42% PA.

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I have received a couple PM's asking how to play MDB+ on mackem's shoes, so here is an example for one of the games he posted. I initially just went through his list and in a few minutes could identify the MDB+ signals and whether each one won or not. For the attached shoe, i wrote out all the plays and marked the signals just like i would in a casino. I chose this shoe because it has several signals, both for streaks and ZZs. This shoe had 8 signals, and each one of them won for a 42% PA.

Hi way2fast,

Thanks for posting you MDB+ Play. I learned a lot for your play

Do you consider the following when playing MDB+ (since Ellis said there are as many zz runs as straight runs) :

1. After two triple 1's bet the next double 1's stays double? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Win bet of Banker at play 28

2. After two triple 1's bet the next triple 1's goes to 4 1's? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Lose bet of Player at play 28

Or when there are so many 1's (most likely 1's will be highest), we should use MDB rule S1 to play

Best Regards,

Kevin

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Hi way2fast,

Thanks for posting you MDB+ Play. I learned a lot for your play

Do you consider the following when playing MDB+ (since Ellis said there are as many zz runs as straight runs) :

1. After two triple 1's bet the next double 1's stays double? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Win bet of Banker at play 28

2. After two triple 1's bet the next triple 1's goes to 4 1's? If we apply that, we will be able to add one Lose bet of Player at play 28

Or when there are so many 1's (most likely 1's will be highest), we should use MDB rule S1 to play

Best Regards,

Kevin

I don't play the 5ZZ as you describe. Sure it may work in any given shoe, but I want to limit to patterns that will have time to repeat a few more times in a shoe. A 5ZZ, just like a straight run of 5, may not give me up to three more betting opportunities in the shoe. For the same reason, I usually pass on a 4 (run or ZZ) after about hand 50 or so.

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I have received a couple PM's asking how to play MDB+ on mackem's shoes, so here is an example for one of the games he posted. I initially just went through his list and in a few minutes could identify the MDB+ signals and whether each one won or not. For the attached shoe, i wrote out all the plays and marked the signals just like i would in a casino. I chose this shoe because it has several signals, both for streaks and ZZs. This shoe had 8 signals, and each one of them won for a 42% PA.

Correct! For those wanting to know how to do the math so you can rate your own play, it goes like this:

100% Progression Hit Rate: 8 3 bet progressions won out of 8 made = 100%

62% bet hit rate: 8 bets won / 13 total bets =62% (The game odds is 50%)

47% PA (Player Advantage) 8 units won / 17 units bet

PA is the industry standard for performance measurement. It is the same as ROI used throughout all industry.

The most common PA published is from the BJ Card Counting gurus. They claim a 0.5% PA possibility for perfect play.

Of course that is pure BS and I don't mean Basic Strategy. No BJ Card Counter has achieved a positive year end PA in the last 25 years.

Don Johnson? He doed not count. He plays NBJ.

Kenny Uston. Yep, he counted, lost his shirt, quit the game and drank himself to death.

Card Counting is a SCAM!

Go to any of the card counting forums and mention a 47% PA and they will laugh you off the forum.

They can't even think in terms of anything more than a fractional PA.

Our members frequently hit double digit PAs.

Yet the card counting gurus have 1000 times more members than we do.

Something is horribly wrong with that picture!

We SHOULD have 1000 times more members than they do.

Our Marketing absolutely sucks! Big Time!

I don't know the first thing about internet Marketing. I've got my hands more than full developing systems and teaching them.

What BTC desparately needs is an Internet Marketing professional.

The right guy could make a fortune! Any takers?

We already have the performance numbers.

MDB+ posseses the best performance numbers in the history of gaming by a country mile.

But it is the best kept secret in the world for some strange reason.

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I don't play the 5ZZ as you describe. Sure it may work in any given shoe, but I want to limit to patterns that will have time to repeat a few more times in a shoe. A 5ZZ, just like a straight run of 5, may not give me up to three more betting opportunities in the shoe. For the same reason, I usually pass on a 4 (run or ZZ) after about hand 50 or so.

Correct and well said. But see, I told you. Kevin will be a great student! Look at the questions he is already asking after just a few days on the forum.

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Guys, be careful of PMs asking questions about MDB+.

I have posted MDB+ performance numbers on the public forum. So guys who are NOT MDB+ members will try to glean information out of you by PM W/O paying for the course. Please do not oblige them. Real MDB+ members can ask all the questions thay want right here on the forum.

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I don't play the 5ZZ as you describe. Sure it may work in any given shoe, but I want to limit to patterns that will have time to repeat a few more times in a shoe. A 5ZZ, just like a straight run of 5, may not give me up to three more betting opportunities in the shoe. For the same reason, I usually pass on a 4 (run or ZZ) after about hand 50 or so.

We'll said, way2fast.

From what you said, I can see that you are very good at math. Your idea to pass on 4 (run or zz) after about hand 50 is great. Just my guessing (not sure correct or not), as 4s event happens every 32 play, after about 50 hands, if we failed the 1st bet, we are not likely to see a 4s again in the remaining play of the shoe. The core of the MDB+ Is based on probability on random shoes, we risk a maximum 3 tries to bet that 5 kinds of a event won't happen (a very low happening rate).

So for 3s stay 3s, 3s to 4s, or 4s to 5s, actually we should define that after certain plays, we will pass on betting ( not because that we will lose, but because we only have a very low chance to see it happen)

I think way2fast's idea can be even written into the MDB+ rule

Regards,

Kevin

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Correct and well said. But see, I told you. Kevin will be a great student! Look at the questions he is already asking after just a few days on the forum.

Hi Ellis,

Thanks for your encouragement, It makes me to fill up with full energy. Actually i was trying to capture those useful information in the forum and try to digest in the past few days. This is a quite painful process as it is actually not easy to understand some of the system. But this learning process benefit me a lot now. I am still having a lot to learn. Although i have understand MDB+ rule by reading your post, i believe there is still a lot i need to find out (which will lead me to register for MDB+ members later to learn from you on the math fundamental of those system you designed, and why they can work). Anyway, i still need to prove myself first in casino before starting the next step. I will try my first MDB play in Macau in 2 weeks time. Before that, still have to learn hard

Regards,

Kevin

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We'll said, way2fast.

From what you said, I can see that you are very good at math. Your idea to pass on 4 (run or zz) after about hand 50 is great. Just my guessing (not sure correct or not), as 4s event happens every 32 play, after about 50 hands, if we failed the 1st bet, we are not likely to see a 4s again in the remaining play of the shoe. The core of the MDB+ Is based on probability on random shoes, we risk a maximum 3 tries to bet that 5 kinds of a event won't happen (a very low happening rate).

So for 3s stay 3s, 3s to 4s, or 4s to 5s, actually we should define that after certain plays, we will pass on betting ( not because that we will lose, but because we only have a very low chance to see it happen)

I think way2fast's idea can be even written into the MDB+ rule

Regards,

Kevin

Correct Kevin, 4's occur once every 32 hands but that's not really the question. We win on 4 or mores. So the correct question is how often do 4+s occur?

Every 16 plays on average.

But correct, we need to think twice before betting on an event that only occurs once every 16 hands. We can win the game W/O taking such big risks.

While losing a 3 bet prog is the worst thing that can happen to you, the second worst is not having enough shoe left to complete a prog.

Some have suggested completing a prog in the next shoe. That is very risky business because a new shoe resets all of the probabilities. Best to simply avoid betting on 4 or mores altogether.

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Correct Kevin, 4's occur once every 32 hands but that's not really the question. We win on 4 or mores. So the correct question is how often do 4+s occur?

Every 16 plays on average.

But correct, we need to think twice before betting on an event that only occurs once every 16 hands. We can win the game W/O taking such big risks.

While losing a 3 bet prog is the worst thing that can happen to you, the second worst is not having enough shoe left to complete a prog.

Some have suggested completing a prog in the next shoe. That is very risky business because a new shoe resets all of the probabilities. Best to simply avoid betting on 4 or mores altogether.

Hi Ellis,

Thanks for the correction. I will follow your suggestion to avoid betting on 4 or more altogether.

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Correct Kevin, 4's occur once every 32 hands but that's not really the question. We win on 4 or mores. So the correct question is how often do 4+s occur?

Every 16 plays on average.

But correct, we need to think twice before betting on an event that only occurs once every 16 hands. We can win the game W/O taking such big risks.

While losing a 3 bet prog is the worst thing that can happen to you, the second worst is not having enough shoe left to complete a prog.

Some have suggested completing a prog in the next shoe. That is very risky business because a new shoe resets all of the probabilities. Best to simply avoid betting on 4 or mores altogether.

I play the 4's, which means "3 stay 3" and "4 goes to 5'. As I mentioned, I do not play these signals when they occur late in the shoe -- don't have a hard rule, but if the game is well into the 3rd column (around 45-55 plays), I will pass on the signal.

To date, my 3 stay 3 signals have won 92% of the time; and the 4 goes to 5 is at 100%.

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