# Chop,streak,neutral

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• Users

Only at the end of a shoe you can determine if it was choppy,streaky or neutral..

Some systems make the conclusion after 4 or 7 hands at the most.

Ridiculous!

After seven zig-zag for instance(choppy shoe) how can be sure that all the remaining hands will be choppy?

And if you switch to a different way of betting(streaky for instance),how can you be sure that the shoe doesn't become a choppy one again?

The only way to beat Baccarat is to bet Banker only in a given a very rare situation related to deviation.

Between 0 and 4 bet per shoe!

Do player know that in 20 hands there are only 17,5% probability that P or B hit exactly 10 times each?

As far as the progression is concerned,max 3 units is the good solution.

OTB4L or similar have been invented one hour after the invention of Baccarat and the Casino have never suffered

As far bet selection is concerned,see above(deviation,ecartâ€¦.)

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• Users

If you are keeping a SAP count, you should be able to determine that the shoe is changing and change your strategy accordingly. If I saw 7 zig zags in a row, there would be NO REASON to play anything other than opposites until the I saw otherwise.

CT70

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• Users

Your answer is the demonstration that you have completely misunderstood my previous post.

Your comment is not pertinent at all.

It's my fault ,because english is not my mother language.

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• Users

If you see high ZZ's coming then that is a chop bias?

Until it changes then why would you not play chop?

Can you guarantee its going to stay chop? No

Can you guarantee the worlds not going to end tomorrow?

It gambling and nothing is ever for sure but biases exist and while they do we need to take advantage of them

If they change then we need to monitor and change

If you know what type of cards and do your homework with table selection then you have more chance to know the characteristics.

Is the cards random and show no bias?

As Ellis says no bias is a bias in itself - that's why we have MDB

Its all here on the forum

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• Users

Incredible how players are simple-minded.

Each hand has a negative EV,wherever you bet and whatever you bet.

In addition to play every hand is a real suicide,it's what casinos like a lot.

Unless you want to win the Math Nobel Prize,stop trusting in your extravagant theories.

You can't change Euclid's mathematic:it has existed for centuries and it's still valid!

Be sure that i'm am disappointed,I hoped your theories could help me too,because I'm a player today,but 20 years ago I was a consultant of a big European Casino.

I have known several pro player at BJ(today they are less than in the past,Casinos are more vigilant) and less than 5 at Baccarat,Zero at roulette.

The pro Baccarat players, that I followed for months,were very discreet,not greedy and tolerate from the Casino I used to work.

Impossible to determine the strategy they used(probably deviation,cluster vs singel,they played 2 - 5 hands per shoeâ€¦).

For sure they didn't talk about their wins,their systems not even to their wives,I'm afraidâ€¦.

For them Forums didn't 'exist at all.

In spite of that I appreciate this Forum and his community.

To discuss about something that has no solution is a challenge that stimulate discussions and brains.

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• Users

Simple minded - Some people have an opinion in their minds and they come to a forum where people are actually doing something they believe is not possible but they refuse to believe it may be possible because they couldn't do it or understand how it is done so even when there is proof they deny it and refer to numbers when numbers are not the real world?

With the Mayweather Pacquiaou fight so close I might relate it to the Mayweather haters that refuse to give the best boxer of our generation any credit for his wins and undefeated record.

Every guy he fights is too old, too young, too heavy or too light - theres always an excuse to not give him credit as there will be after this one too.

Yes simple minded

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Incredible how players are simple-minded.

Each hand has a negative EV,wherever you bet and whatever you bet.

In addition to play every hand is a real suicide,it's what casinos like a lot.

Unless you want to win the Math Nobel Prize,stop trusting in your extravagant theories.

You can't change Euclid's mathematic:it has existed for centuries and it's still valid!

Be sure that i'm am disappointed,I hoped your theories could help me too,because I'm a player today,but 20 years ago I was a consultant of a big European Casino.

I have known several pro player at BJ(today they are less than in the past,Casinos are more vigilant) and less than 5 at Baccarat,Zero at roulette.

The pro Baccarat players, that I followed for months,were very discreet,not greedy and tolerate from the Casino I used to work.

Impossible to determine the strategy they used(probably deviation,cluster vs singel,they played 2 - 5 hands per shoe…).

For sure they didn't talk about their wins,their systems not even to their wives,I'm afraid….

For them Forums didn't 'exist at all.

In spite of that I appreciate this Forum and his community.

To discuss about something that has no solution is a challenge that stimulate discussions and brains.

Well this is a good example why Mathematicians make poor gamblers.

In Bac the game odds are 50/50. Commission has no more to do with the game odds that the cab fare you paid to get to the casino.

In Bac, every shoe ever dealt favored either opposites or repeats or a 0 OR count.

Choppy shoes favor opposites. We've all seen choppy shoes especially in the morning right after the card prep.

A good chop system like S40 will beat such a shoe every time as long as you know to get out while ahead.

Streaky shoes favor Repeats. Streak is caused by lack of adequate shuffle. A good streak system like TB4L will beat them every time again as long as you know to get out while ahead.

The only thing left is neutral shoes that favor neither opposites or repeats. Fine, OTB4L beats those as long as you know to get out while ahead.

Occassionally we get Strong Side shoes and it is obvious how to beat those. Whether they happened by accident or by design is beside the point - they are nevertheless easy to beat.

Now we can turn to events:

Every event such as 1's, 2s, 3s, or 4+s (4 or mores) has its mathematical normal frequncy of occurrence.

Over many shoes all events eventually hit their normal frequency of occurrence.

But in the glimpse of time of a single shoe, they almost never do.

AND for every event(s) occurring more than normal other event(s) must occur equally less than normal -

a mathematical fact of life. This gives us tells.

In a given shoe it tells us which events to bet on and which events to bet against.

High 1's and high 1's and 2s is S40

High 2s and high 2s and 3s is OTB4L

High 3+s and high 3+s with high 1's is TB4L

Low 2s is always TB4L

And again it is a question of quitting while ahead

To aid us in this endeavor we have the SAP count which tells us the precise status of each event thus far in a shoe weighted to its normal frequency of occurrence. That in turn tells us the highest percentage bets vs the lowest percentage bets. From there all that is required is discipline. Fortunately, unlike BJ, we can pick and choose our bets in Baccarat.

Does it work? Well one of our Methods MDB+, for example, which picks and chooses its bets to 7 bet signals, has close to a 70% bet hit rate and a 95% 3 bet progression win rate. This is, by far, the best overall performance of any approach to to any game in the entire history of gambling.

All Mathematicians make the same mistake: They start out with a completely false assumption - a false given.

They assume all cards whether Bac or BJ are first shuffled to a random condition. This is NEVER the case.

But being an ex casino employee I'm sure you are totally familiar with casino shuffle technology.

A single deck of cards takes a mimimum of 7 shuffles to achieve a random condition. Some Mathematicians insist that the number is closer to 25!

But 2 decks is not 14 shuffles. It is 7 X 7 or 49 shuffles. How many times does the dealer shuffle the cards in a 2 deck BJ game???

Sometimes once, usually twice and occassionally 3 times - but NEVER 49 times. So the cards are NEVER random and Basic Strategy is totally based on RANDOM cards. So much for Basic Strategy. BJ players who play BS perfectly - LOSE perfectly.

8 deck Bac would require a minimum of 7 to the 8th power shuffles to begin to achieve random condition. The dealer would still be shuffling after two weeks!

Yet casino control commissions everywhere DECLARE 2 shuffles is random. So much for casino control.

But even if dealers DID shuffle Bac games to a random condition - like BJ, random is the easiest bias to beat.

So what was it you were saying about Baccarat? Maybe you'd rather talk BJ - That's my real specialty.

Edited by Ellis
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English grammar test:

Cards are never random unless they are fixed.

So if cards are not random, what are they???

What is the opposite of random???

End of lesson.

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• Users

I have known since 1970(we have almost the same age) 90% of what you have written.

The concepts about 1's or2's...,chop or streaky,opposite and repeat,OB4TL or TB4TL were illustrated for the first time in 1936 by Marigny de Grilleau.

I know perfectly shuffle tracking,used by a few pro players in BY or Baccarat,but it's not exactly what you said.

About the influence of shuffling on biased shoes I'm sceptical,but I trust on you.

-commission is not important for a player that enters a Casino 5 times a year,but very important in a continuous game(200 visits per year,like I do)

-if your theory is efficacious,flat bet will be sufficient.Progression speed up the result of a session in + or -,but is not determinant.

-I don't know SAP count but my feeling is that SAP count is a snapshot of a situation in a given moment.Why this snapshot must influence your next hands?

How you can foresee the next decision.Every hand is 50/50: so what?

Sorry,but it's a voodoo approachâ€¦

-random is not the easiest bias to beat.Roulette is by definition the most random game and it's unbeatable.Because cards are not involved?May be

Some more questions:

do you have European students in your group?I'm curious,it's not excluded that I subscribe(600 \$ per year,correct?)

do you have any Ph. D among them?

what ,among your books,do you suggest to me for having a better knowledge of your theories and systems?

I hope to meet you in near future,may be in Montecarlo.

My dream is to spend a few hours to discuss with you about baccarat and BJ,that I know also very well(I used Red seven count and BS of Stanford Youngâ€¦)

Congratulations again

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English grammar test:

Cards are never random unless they are fixed.

So if cards are not random, what are they???

What is the opposite of random???

End of lesson.

Totally agree on that. On Roulette, Craps and Sports Betting, where no shuffling orquestation is possible, could we assume that the games should be the closest thing to random?

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I think you mean Stanford Wong but no matter, that's not his real name either. In fact he's not even Asian.

Yes we have European students as well as Asian and others. We've even had Russian. I don't pay much attention to their degrees

but many Doctors, Lawyers and other professionals. I'm degreed in Engineering, Architecture and Business and taught Calculus At State University of New York.

Spent a lot of time in continental Europe as well as UK choosing land and building factories for 30 Rock. Liked it there!

Yes, overall the hand average in Bac is 50/50 but we don't play the game from an overall basis. We play in individual shoes.

If a choppy shoe ended up 80% opposites, what were your odds every time you bet opposite in that shoe???

Of course, if a shoe were 80% opposites, it wouldn't be random in the first place, it would be predictable.

Commission is 1.25% of the money bet. Yet casinos win anywhere from 15 to 30% of the drop depending on the casino.

Players on average lose far more than the game odds dictate because they bet against what is happening in the shoe at hand.

I teach the game the other way around. Bet on what is happening. Don't fight city hall.

Back in the late '80s we saw 20+ in a row on a daily basis - impossible in a random game.

Today we see none at all - equally impossible.

If BJ were random BS alone would beat it. Edward O. Thorp was right about that. But picking up the break cards first injects clumping

into the game which destroys BS. Thorp missed that little tidbit much to the chagrin of Kenny Uston who I used to frequently play with.

Right, shuffle tracking developed by Eddey Olsen is not what I'm speaking of. What I'm talking about is the complete inability of shuffling the cards to a random condition in the time allotted. This creates strong biases way outside of the random envelope - playable biases.

Random is a highly playable bias. If it weren't MDB+ would have nowhere near a 70% hit rate. That system, in fact, bets ON random.

You just have to know how.

NBJ is the best BJ book there is but it is written to US BJ rather than European BJ. You would have to interpolate.

NOR is the best Bac book for regular cards - cards that started their day in 6 or 8 individual sealed decks.

MDB is best for factory preshuffled cards particularly Vegas and Macau.

Sorry, never heard of de Grilleau. But then Bac didn't start in the US until the '80s and there were no books available in English. I wrote the first. All of my terminology and systems are my own.

Where exactly are you from? It's good to have fans everywhere. Ha, anywhere! The card counters hate me. I keep beating them!

I have known since 1970(we have almost the same age) 90% of what you have written.

The concepts about 1's or2's...,chop or streaky,opposite and repeat,OB4TL or TB4TL were illustrated for the first time in 1936 by Marigny de Grilleau.

I know perfectly shuffle tracking,used by a few pro players in BY or Baccarat,but it's not exactly what you said.

About the influence of shuffling on biased shoes I'm sceptical,but I trust on you.

-commission is not important for a player that enters a Casino 5 times a year,but very important in a continuous game(200 visits per year,like I do)

-if your theory is efficacious,flat bet will be sufficient.Progression speed up the result of a session in + or -,but is not determinant.

-I don't know SAP count but my feeling is that SAP count is a snapshot of a situation in a given moment.Why this snapshot must influence your next hands?

How you can foresee the next decision.Every hand is 50/50: so what?

Sorry,but it's a voodoo approachâ€¦

-random is not the easiest bias to beat.Roulette is by definition the most random game and it's unbeatable.Because cards are not involved?May be

Some more questions:

do you have European students in your group?I'm curious,it's not excluded that I subscribe(600 \$ per year,correct?)

do you have any Ph. D among them?

what ,among your books,do you suggest to me for having a better knowledge of your theories and systems?

I hope to meet you in near future,may be in Montecarlo.

My dream is to spend a few hours to discuss with you about baccarat and BJ,that I know also very well(I used Red seven count and BS of Stanford Youngâ€¦)

Congratulations again

Edited by Ellis
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• Users

I'm Italian and I live 20 km from Montecarlo Casino.

I don't play BJ anymore:too tough at my age to put up with big negative deviations even with positive count.

I play VB at roulette and a system based on "asymmetrical hands" at Baccarat.

In Europe only new sealed decks,re-shuffled at the end of each shoe.

I will try OTB4TL at the 1st shoe.

I watched all NOR videos on Youtube:my feeling is that there are too many SUBJECTIVE choices about shifting from OTB4TL to Mode 2,Mode 3,or OTR..

That's no good:the rules should be much more precise.

May be I'm wrong.

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• 3 weeks later...

Hi Beretta,

I advise you to become a NOR member. This and all your questions can be answered there. Many players pay good money for this information. You too can have access to all of this support by becoming a member.

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