Real play SAP/RSAP flat bet.

[brad01]

hi guys after seeing people asking for the rules I was like I should play a real shoe online the way I play it which I think is pretty much the correct way Ellis would want it played.

I played Black Orchid online for real money and it couldn't have gone better.

I have the results and will post but its a bit too messy and I want to redo it first.

31 bets made on 60 play shoe

Won 22 and lost 9

That's a 70% hit rate and 15 units won for mostly flat bets with a 1,2 progression when I was OTR kicking ass

I don't know why more people aren't recording SAP counts, identifying MC, and LC and playing the high % bets with flat bet

Its really not that hard.

Give Ellis a break, record SAP counts, identify the MC, and LC and start betting the high % bets

If the counts are equal then play RSAP when you see the opportunity.

[Dazza]

Hi Brad01

Looking forward to seeing your scorecard and how you played it live mate

Thanks

Dazza

[brad01]

Neat scorecards is my weak point but will do it asap.

B124126121

P111211111223111

B1311311

Sap identified the early 4+'s and early 1 and 2's and lack of 3's

Made most of my units on zz runs and 2's

Actually predicted the first 3 stays 3 with reverse sap but lost an mdb bet on the last 3

Ok so a shoe high in 1's and 2's is pretty easy to beat but the point is sap identified the 1's and 2's and the lack of 3's

A good point is the current movement in the sap count can be as important as the count itself

[Dazza]

Hello Brad

Did you get any chance to do a scorecard for the live play that you did mate...

THanks

Dazza

[brad01]

Hi Dazza yeah I just figured out how to post shoes off excel so will do it for you

[Dazza]

Hi Brad

Thanks mate really appreciate it.

Dazza

[brad01]

Well I am still just coming to terms with how to produce these Jpeg images so didn't finish but thought would post 1st column to show the set up of SAP count and the first bet staying away from LC event:

This is how Ellis taught to set up SAP count with weighted totals for 1,2,3,4+

At the end of the first column you can see that 4+'s are most common but due to their heavy weighting and 2 early events it gives a bit of an artificial lead

The important thing I think is lack of 3's

Then I also think its important that although 1's and 2's are not showing on SAP count as MC due to weighting they are next in line and in actual numbers they are MC

Being that 3's are LC it means that by betting 1's and 2's then we should win a high number of bets while staying away from LC 3's

Will post next column later when have time but that's where I kicked ass playing 1's and 2's only

I mean its all there for you guys - record SAP counts, identify MC, LC and then make a game plan to bet accordingly around the SAP count.

[Pando]

Nicely explained Brad

In that shoe I would play a 1,2 progression on the 1's and 2's

and if any 2 went to a 3, then I would bet it would go to a four.

Pando

[brad01]

Hi Pando that's pretty much what I did except there were no 3's till right to the end and I actually then picked the 3 as usually at the end of the shoe crazy stuff starts happening which often goes against the whole trend previously. This can screw a lot of players up and turn winners into losers. Will post rest asap when not tired

[brad01]

Hi guys / Pando I will post the rest of shoe soon to show where I killed it on 1's and 2's but was just thinking about this SAP / RSAP thing:

If we see a SAP count like:

5 2 16 4

then we know that the MC is the 3's and LC is the 2's

So easy we play SAP and bet all 1's stay 1, and all 2's got to 3 and maybe even 3's stay 3

If we see a shoe with a SAP count like this:

5 6 4 4

It is relatively equal so there is no standout MC and LC

So we will play RSAP and wait for 1 count to go up and bet that all the other events will catch up - that's MDB so don't want to say too much on that.

But what about:

5 4 12 12

Ok so there is no standout MC or LC

Playing SAP we could wait for a 2 and then bet it goes 3 or 4+

But playing RSAP we don't have to wait for ALL counts to equalize but look at 2 equal neighbouring counts and play RSAP on just those 2

So the 3 count is 12 and the 4 count is also 12

They are neighbours so as they are equal we could wait for 2 or 3 of either without the other and bet that the next event will go to the one that missed.

MY POINT OF THIS IS THAT WE DONT HAVE TO WAIT FOR ALL COUNTS TO EQUALISE - JUST 2 NEIGHBOURS TO FIND RSAP BETS

This may be easy stuff for some but it only just occurred to me as I was looking to just play normal SAP based on MC and LC or MDB based on completely equal count - this way we can find RSAP bets with just 2 equal counts?

[brad01]

Play 21 - 40

Bet 1's and 2's started out flat bet but went to 1,2 as hit rate high.

Got to the end of the line and actually anticipated the 3 as thought there would be at least 1 in the shoe by the end

Just a guess

4+'s never kept up their high count

3's stayed low

1's and 2's dominated

SAP tells you what to play

[muling427]

Thank you, Brad for sharing your play , your interpretation of the game and animating this thread as Elis must have health problems.

You say in your comments '' start to play 1s and 2s are they are MC '' but for me , 4s+ are MC with the weighting. Up to hand 25 where 1s ,2s and 4s are equal .

[brad01]

Yes you are correct in that 4's is most common as a single event

But don't forget 3's are least common

That means that we cant get to a 4+ without a 3 and 3's are LC so that reduces the chances of 4+'s occurring

The fact that 4+'s are weighted so highly can give false indication as all it takes is 2 of them close together and our count is way up

Here we are looking for them and there may not be any occur for long time or even at all again this shoe

BUT MEANWHILE what's going on?

Well if 3's are LC then 1's and 2's have to be occurring

Although individually they are not MC, they are neighbouring events - add them together and they are MC as a sum

Because they are neighbouring events we can use a 1,2 progression and win on both of them

This is my thinking on this and it works on this occasion

I'm open to comments?

Can 2 neighbouring events added together be MC and be bet on with a 1,2 progression?

Could a high count especially with 3's and 4+'s throw us off possibly but not always because of the weighting?

Much the same way as a mathematical average doesn't take into account the median and can be thrown off by several high or low values

I just think SAP/RSAP is very good but it is an approach not a mechanical system and we need to practise interpreting the SAP count and then use it to determine the best betting strategy.

[muling427]

yes I understand your reasoning, it is quite logical .

[brad01]

Well here is the last part of the shoe - about 60 plays with 6 decks online format

Didn't end up too bad but the 3's and 4's threw me off as 4's started out strong and 3's were none and then at the end 3's came and overtook 4's and 4's were non existent!

I guess for RSAP we want to see a pretty consistent spread throughout the shoe and not irregular grouping of events like in this one

I think RSAP is harder to pick and harder to pick right but in the right conditions very strong as MDB+ is the proof of that.

[Guest]

Well OK Brad. But here is how I'm trying to get you to think:

Shoes are NOT always either SAP or RSAP

When 1's and 2s are your highest numbers, SAP is TELLING you to play S40.

The fact that 3s and 4+s reversed positions - thats telling you to change modes.

First it was telling you to bet 3s go to 4 (Mode 2)

But then it switched to telling you to bet 3s stay 3 (Mode 3)

SAP is telling you how to best beat the shoe at hand - virtually every shoe there is

But it takes some thinking to convert SAP's information to accurate betting.

SAP is also telling you when to back off vs when to go for the jugular.

This was definitely a jugular shoe! See that?

SAP is the best guide there is for how to beat a shoe.

But you've got to keep ALL of your options open.

Practice makes perfect!

Hints:

Hi 1's and 2s is S40

Low 2s is TB4L

H1 1s and 4+ is TB4L

H1 2s and 3s is OTB4L

Don't forget Strong Side

High SAP disparity is SAP (biased)

Lo SAP disparity is RSAP (random)

Edited May 19, 2015 by Ellis

[brad01]

Hi Ellis thanks for your reply. I knew you would be back sooner or later.

Yes I was totally thinking when playing this shoe that s40 would have absolutely killed it and yes the 3's and 4's would have just helped me get the mode right.

In reality everything on this forum in a way ties into everything else in some way because at the end of the day its all different ways of looking at how to make that decision of whether to bet banker or player?

Netbet although not the same is really very similar to NOR systems, although there are circumstances where netbet will excel and NOR will not do that well from your examples

Question for you Ellis:

I guess a lot of members were expecting to learn a new universal netbet system that was going to guarantee them of winning 5 units + on every shoe. One that was mechanical and they could play while watching tv, half asleep, checking out the short skirts at the casino - whatever!

Now this section has become SAP / RSAP I guess a lot of members are feeling they missed out on that mechanical universal system.

I myself love it as I can see the value in using the SAP count to determine whether and how to play NOR or MDB+

Here's the question:

Do you think you could write a set of mechanical triggers for SAP on this forum kind of like MDB+ exactly in reverse?

To allow guys to go in and play exactly like MDB+ but exactly in reverse in that its SAP and not RSAP?

A set of triggers that under the right SAP count conditions can produce a high hit rate similar to MDB+ and using flat bet, 1,2 or 1,2,4 or whatever?

Just a thought to keep the guys that wanted that mechanical system happy so they can take the list of triggers and go and play exactly by them.

Whatever you decide Ellis I'll be here as long as this forum is - Thanks

[cookie0410]

I have to agree with Brad,

I think for us newbies this would be much easier. When i personally payed for the universal system i wanted something i can learn and impalement in the casino, do i care if its netbetting or 2hi? no of course not, SAP/RSAP seems great and a great direction to go. We can chose what progression we play also

Cant we have a set of rules and go from there?

[muling427]

Thank you Brad for expressing what most of us are feeling !

But by experience , I think that no fully mechanical system can win on the long run . There is always a part of subjectivity and player's appreciation. That is what makes the difference between winning and losing players.

Creating such a system is really a challenge for Ellis and it will be his Holy Grail !

Anyway ,thanks to him !l

[MasterP]

Hi Ellis,

I see that the SAP count can be kept as only 1's, 2's 3's and 4+'s. But, I have seen that in other places in the forum that the SAP count be kept as 1's, 2's , 3's , 4's and 5+'s. Which is better to use ? What does the extra 5+'s help with? I want to make sure I'm performing the SAP count properly.

Thanks.

Edited May 20, 2015 by MasterP

[brad01]

To quote Ellis, the higher the event the less meaningful it becomes but I'm also curious if there would be any benefit in tracking 4's as well. I'm starting to think no. The money's in the 1's, 2's, 3's I think

[MasterP]

To quote Ellis, the higher the event the less meaningful it becomes but I'm also curious if there would be any benefit in tracking 4's as well. I'm starting to think no. The money's in the 1's, 2's, 3's I think

Hi Brad,

Thanks for the reply. The only advantage I see is that when you are playing OTB4LM3. When tracking the 4's you have a better indicator if M3 will work well or not. I do agree that with the other systems like S40, F or TB4L the count for 1's , 2's , 3's and 4's are the only ones needed. But, I have also been seeing more shoes with a combination of 3's and 4's which have been a nemesis for such systems as S40 ( when in the wrong mode ) and net betting and OTB4LM2 ( with the 4's ).

There maybe an added benefit in knowing 4's and 5+'s. I'm just wanting to understand it better to utilize it better.

[Guest]

Right, net bet is good but unfortunately NOT when constrained to 2 Hi. The two sides, whatever we make them,

never stay in the perfect balance needed for 2Hi net bet. Net bet thrives on the higher bets.

But the mission was 2Hi. Well SAP has always thrived on 2Hi betting. So, if we want to keep it 2Hi,

our best base is SAP, not net bet, in my opinion.

But SAP had 2 problems: 1.) Complexity and 2.) random shoes - shoes close to random frequency of occurrence.

Random shoes were a rarity but Vegas made them common with preshuffled cards and many casinos are going that

route because preshuffled (random) creates higher casino profits because few can figure out how to beat random shoes

and they are now a fact of life.

Well I think the new method of teaching the SAP count solves the complexity problem. We've got it down to a simple score card

set up that anyone can follow W/O error.

And I think RSAP solves the random shoe problem. Not just solves but thrives on it - just as MDB+ thrives on random.

The fact is, in spite of what casinos and mathematicians think, Random Can Be Beat and in fact, is really the easiest bias to beat -

just as it is in BJ. Way2fast has demonstrated that beyond all doubt.

And not only can we keep our betting 2Hi, we can even do quite well flat betting.

But we can't ALWAYS count on preshuffled cards producing random just as we can't always count on regular cards producing bias.

USUALLY they do but not always.

Put yourself in the pit bosses shoes: If you are using cards coded random at your table but the players are winning -

what are you going to do? You are going to change to biased cards.

Just as - if the players are beating choppy cards, you are going to change to streaky cards.

Well you need a way to know what kind of cards the pit boss is deploying at YOUR table.

You have 4 tools at your disposal:

The P/B count

The O/R count

The O/T count and

The SAP count

Well the P/B count is already right there on the tote board. You only need to keep it if the table has no tote board.

The O/R count I recommend you always keep.

You don't need to keep an O/T count.

If 2s are high it is an OTB4L shoe.

If 2s are low it is a TB4L shoe

and SAP tells you that already - and it tells you precisely

It is simply a question of understanding what the information at your table is telling you.

The shoe you posted, for instance, 1's and 2s were high. That is ALWAYS S40

Lo 2s is alwats TB4L.

Hi 2s is always OTB4L.

But especially with preshuffled cards we get shoes where nothing is really standing out as Hi

and Nothing is standing out as low. Fine, that is MDB+.

But suppose you don't know MDB+? Fine, play RSAP

Simply bet the highest count(s) will go down and the lowest count(s) will go up.

But Ellis, the 2 middle counts - we don't know if they are Hi or Lo???

Well right because you don't know the "mean" count - the "random" count.

Ha, well here is a little trick of the trade.

The mean count is ALWAYS 1/4 of the play number. - a simple fact of Math.

For instance at play #8, your mean count is 2.

Therefore at play 8, an event with a count more than 2 is running ABOVE normal. Less than 2 is BELOW normal.

This BTW is one of the reasons we completely ignore ties - as if they never happened.

Because ties will screw up your play number. Never record ties.

So a normal full shoe of 72 plays not counting ties your mean counts at play #72 is 18,18,18 and 18

At play #36, your mean counts are 9999.

At play #18, your mean count is 4.5. for all 4 events.

At play 16, your mean count is 4444

Get it?

Now you know exactly which events are occurring more than normal and by exactly how much -

As well as which events are occurring less than normal and by exactly how much n- each and every play of the shoe.

You have at your disposal a perfect Mathematical analysis of the shoe play by play.

THAT is the strongest tool ever in the entire history of systems.

But BEFORE you can use it effectively you need to know ONE thing.

What is the general trend of the table, the casino, the SHOE at hand?

Are the SAP counts dispersing wider and wider ? (SAP)

Or are the SAP counts tending to equalize ? (RSAP)

We can't simply go by regular cards vs preshuffled. Regular cards = SAP; preshuffled = RSAP

Yes that is USUALLY right. and That is the way we've BEEN playing.

But the fact is, especially today, USUALLY is simply not good enough.

We need to know for a FACT the trend of the shoe we are playing right now.

BECAUSE if we know THAT, we can beat every shoe there is, anywhere, anytime. See that?

AND, we can even do it flat betting.

BECAUSE we have a solid Mathematical way of predicting every single play - See that?

NOW, I don't care what any Mathematician says: The flip a coin table odds of every bet are 50/50. That's just our starting point.

But through Mathematical skill - through Mathematical selection - through SAP/RSAP, we can beat 50/50.

We already proved thjat with MDB+!

So sure, some shoes our hit rate will be 51%. Fine, flat bet. Go for 2 units.

But other shoes our hit rate will be 80%! Don't be caught flat betting in a 30 unit shoe. See that?

So OK, some of you are already understanding exactly what I'm saying.

Others are scratching their heads. They need further discussion.

Well, how was that for openers?

Edited May 20, 2015 by Ellis

[Guest]

Hi Ellis,

I see that the SAP count can be kept as only 1's, 2's 3's and 4+'s. But, I have seen that in other places in the forum that the SAP count be kept as 1's, 2's , 3's , 4's and 5+'s. Which is better to use ? What does the extra 5+'s help with? I want to make sure I'm performing the SAP count properly.

Thanks.

Right, I started with the intention of including 5s. But then I realized it simply isn't necessary:

There are only 4.5 4 or mores per shoe. So it's easy to see if the 4s are going to 5 or not.

Why screw up our score card?

[MasterP]

Right, I started with the intention of including 5s. But then I realized it simply isn't necessary:

There are only 4.5 4 or mores per shoe. So it's easy to see if the 4s are going to 5 or not.

Why screw up our score card?

Thanks Ellis.

Does that mean that the 4+'s have the original multiplier of 4. That would make the SAP scorecard easier to use.