An idea to discuss

[pauld]

Here is an idea I have been playing with some good results. With any idea, I think it is important to outline our theory of why it works or should work, so here goes – looking forward to the discussion…

Observation: I know we often talk about ‘this is definitely an OTBL shoe’, or ‘S40 cleans up in this shoe’, etc. But my personal experience is that yes, all shoes show ‘segments’ that match and are profitable to one of the various ideas we have worked on in the forum, from net betting, O/R, OTBL/TBL, NOR, MDB+, etc. BUT then what I see is a bit of chaos for a few hands and then a different thing/idea is winning – my theory is that this coincides with the idea that everything eventually returns to a balanced world. No matter the laws of probability, I cannot image a shoe of 80+ hands being B-P-B-P-B all the way through.

Idea: I started tracking Opposite/Repeats and OTBL/TBL – numbering them as they happen – see attached example (Should/could include P/B, but have not). With the idea that nothing lasts forever, I tracked and saw which made it to 8 or 10 first (still playing with what is best), once I hit that, I would bet on the reverse of that. Trying to figure out the ‘frequency’ of the shoe, per se, - I’ve always felt a kinship with 8 hands / 64 per shoe idea. The idea is to figure out what the average length of a ‘Type Run’ would be – it may be 8 or 10 or 12 or?

So for example, if OTBL got to 8 before everyone else, I would start to bet on TBL, and start my count over. I would continue on TBL until 3 losses, then see if anything else now had 8/10 accumulated since start of new count, if so, would bet on the opposite of that, or wait until something has 8/10, then bet on the opposite. Playing with U1D2M2, but 3-4-5 is working better – more profitable. Perhaps there is a better progression for this idea I haven’t thought of yet.

Thoughts?

20thJun.pdf

Edited July 8, 2015 by pauld

[Rich333]

You may want to check with brad01. We talked about a rolling count of the last 8 events with a possible +2/-2 range for netbet and using a Nor system for a count outside +2/-2... i don't know if he tried it. So far i have been using +4/-4 for the entire shoe. i can usually hit my goal in 20-45 hands. Resetting the count or keeping a rolling count...see what works for you

[kachatz1]

Pauld-

My own experience " suggests" that counts for 4D, whether:

P/B

O/R

OTBL/TBL

OO/TT

Resulting in a range of +2/-2

Would indicate for that particular indicator an OTBL bet next hand.

B.U.T., the other 3 indicators outside of the narrow range of +2/-2 might indicate a bet on the other side...

I have no long range empirical, hard-and-fast statistical evidence would support yours, or my experience.

I can only say that it works for me, enough times more than it doesn't, that I am compelled to " keep doing it"

Yet, in the wide,wide world of casinos worldwide, certainly my sample size is too small, and won't work all situations/all casinos/all shoes....

( Even though it has worked wonders for me for several years now...preshuffled cards or 8 decks of newbies)

Which is why ULTIMATELY we might want to move such discussions on this forum into the realm of the digital age, where theories, ideas, " just thinking" could be proven/dis-proven to be of value across a wide range of casinos, a large number of shoes...

Not sure, but I think too many of us seek to be spoiled by the " quick and dirty " ( aka SIMPLE) answer, when no real evidence exists ?

Is there truly a one-size-fits-all " Baccarat Nirvana" ??

NOT.

Just my thoughts.

Computer model, actual testing will be something for the Keithster to consider, but know that it would come with a price-to-be-paid...

Again, Plain and Simple.

If we want " evidence" how/why/where/when something " works" , or even THAT IT REALLY DOES WORK

( or not)

We'd have to be willing to pay for same...

But if we confined our quest to just a couple of " systems" and relied on same to " improve" those couple of systems, perhaps it would be within our reach...

More evidence, more confidence.

More confidence, more focused betting.

More focused betting strategy, higher win %

Even Captain Kirk would agree.

PRICELESS.

[brad01]

Yeah you are right Dean nothing lasts forever - have been thinking about this myself lately.

You bet a NOR bias and you win

You bet again and you win

How many times in a row can you win without a loss?

So do you pick a point where you think the bias cant go any further and bet against it?

Or do you keep betting hoping it will last when you know it cant - thereby forcing yourself into a loss.

This is like MDB+ or reverse SAP - there was 3 x 3's with no 4 so the next 3 cant possibly stay 3 it must go to 4

Or do you say there was 3 x 3's so the next 3 will stay 3

Depends on your thinking and whether the shoe is biased or random.

But how biased can it possible be?

I have a list of triggers for biased shoes and roulette and I look for short term bias and bet with it or a long boas and bet against it

I record ZZ's as well - you can see the same on ZZ's as you can on straights - sometimes more

I record like this:

B121123142115

42 32 4

ZZ's below the end of the run

Really to me netbetting is mostly betting chop

If a shoe is choppy its generally switching back and forth and and the count stays near 0

If it streak it can streak both ways and and return to zero and you can bet the SS but its hard to pick

I haven't sat down and nutted out 4D yet but I will one day

I want to see what I'm missing and what Kevins got going on

I think 4D is just a different way of looking at bias or lack of bias - bet with a high count or netbet a zero count

In roulette they have sleeping numbers and woken numbers and hot numbers.

In baccarat we can look at it the same way

Low 2's - 2's are sleeping - how long can they sleep before they wake and when a 2 comes up its awake and how often do you then see them come on strong then?

In roulette there are people who wait for a sleeper and then wait for it to wake up and appear then they bet it

There's a lot of people who have a lot of success this way

[Baccarat A]

Betting against things happening can be extremely dangerous. A couple of years ago I was playing at the Goldstrike. About 2/3's the way thru the shoe I noticed that there hadn't been any threes for a while so I began betting no three. There were no threes the balance of that shoe, no threes the entire next shoe and no threes the first half of the next shoe. That was around 160 hands in a row with no threes. Rare yes, but it happened. Then I went next door to the Horseshoe and saw a perfect S40 shoe. Nothing higher than a three the entire shoe. There was one guy at the table betting that the 3 would turn into a 4. He eventually left the table pissed off and broke.

[brad01]

Hello Baccarat A

I agree with you

BUT

Yes betting against the bias can be dangerous but so can betting with the bias.

Everything is dangerous if you don't have a plan.

Whether you chase a bias or a lack of bias you have to have a plan with bet selection and stop loss

I don't chase a bet selection more than 2 - 3 times before writing it off

I select the bets I select because I have stats that say I will be right more times than I am wrong.

Nobody can be right all the time.

It would be just as silly to blindly keep chasing a bias you see and think will continue when it doesn't as chasing a bias you think will end and it keeps going.

If I'm wrong I write it off and look for the next bet

In the early days I used to get frustrated and pit myself against the casino that I could be right and keep betting that within the next few hands I would win usually increasing my bets much like the guy you described

This is the type of mentality that keeps casinos in business.

By the way MDB+ is based on betting a small bias in a shoe with a lack of bias will not continue and in the original plans it will do that for up to 3 losing bets in a 3 step martingale

way2fast has proved that it can work beyond doubt.