Keeping your winnings -- the ups and downs

[Guest]

I have worked with many of you through the online training and Boot Camps. In these years of helping BTC members master NOR and MDB, I have had the privilege of seeing you go from being an average player -- to pro levels. This is exciting. And many of you have simply learned to play well enough to hold your own when you make the occasional Vegas trip. That too is huge...

But what does it really take to win, and then (more important) hold on to it. How often we are up -- only to find ourselves in a hole a while later. Then, we are discouraged and leave with a loss.

I want to address this phenomena over these posts and share what I have learned about the emotional roller coaster we all experience and the discipline needed to really keep your winnings.

I will start with a simple idea of setting a stop win and stop loss goal for yourself. This will vary from player to player, but here is a little rule I try to live by:

When I am up and I feel I have peaked -- that is -- I can tell that I am not as sharp as I was earlier, maybe I am tired or hungry etc., I stop.--- no matter where I am towards my goal. As my playing partner and good friend Nick can attest to, each time I break this rule, I leave the casino empty handed or down. Each time I keep it, I leave with some or all of my winning goal, and play like a champ next session.... Why? - because I maintained my self discipline. So I am more confident and secure the next round. It really pays off in terms of keeping your head together.

I will get into specifics on such things in future posts, but for now -- let me hear from you. What do you do to keep your winnings and what issues can I help you with?

Steve

[brad01]

Hey Steve this is really great and a great topic you have started.

It could well be the difference for many people between winning and losing rather than looking for a HG mechanical system

I'll start by saying watch out when you have a big winning session or a few winning sessions - you may start to feel invincible and that you have the casino's 'worked out' You go in confident that whatever you play, however you play you cant lose - all it will take is one session to bring you back to earth.

Always remember - every day is a battle at the casino - maybe a battle to win 5 units, a battle to win 1 unit or a battle to just break even because guess what? If it wasn't always a battle do you think there would still be casinos?

[trillion]

I seem to always get ahead at the beginning of my session but before I quit for the day it seems that I will end up losing most of my units back to the casino.

Currently playing MDB+ but I can't seem to grow my bankroll.

Played during the LAS VEGAS summit, won the first 2 days there @ the GOLD COAST, Lost first trigger @ GOLD COAST on the third day, went across the street to PALMS won 2 units there and proceeded to played on the strip and won the other 5 units.

Lost another trigger @ Palazzo and finished the day down 7 units. Quit after going down then even then down again.

After arriving back in St. Louis went to play @ AMERISTAR casino and won 10 units over 2 and half shoe before losing a trigger for a grand total of 3 units.

My point is that I have been having trouble winning and building my bankroll due to winning a few units only to have a losing trigger or 2 and fighting to get back to even.

Mike

[Abby N]

I don't get to a casino very often - once every few weeks or so - and the closest casino does not have baccarat.

I play e-roulette - a version of MDB, five dollar units. I play only a few hours and usually win from 30 - 70 dollars.

I remember one time I had only 7 dollars in winnings. I actually took a photo of that 7 dollars and made it my screen saver on my phone -- every time I looked at my phone, it was a reminder that I did not lose - and I am a winner. The next trip I was in the right frame of mind - I love taking home money from the casino!

My husband thinks gambling is a waste of time - so I call this my little hobby. There aren't many hobbies that actually make money. Thanks to BTC, I have fun and do not lose to the casinos.

I do have a little plan in place to start raising my units - my bankroll needs built up, but I'm getting there!

*** Keeping your Winnings . I have a little treasure box on my dresser , and I put my cash winnings in it. It's fun to watch it fill up.

It's a start.

Next step - pay off mortgage

Next step - pay off my kids's mortgages.

I'm a dreamer-Thanks for all the valuable information and ideas on this forum - I log on every day!

Abby N

[brad01]

Hey Trillion, I have a lower win goal than 5 units.

Actually 2 - 3 because similar to you if I try to go 5 units or more I can end up back to even or in the red.

If you are up, down, up, down then if you try to get to 5 then theres a good chance you wont.

If you are at 3 and you lose then you can quit at 2

If you are at 2 and you lose you can quit at 1

You still walk out a winner

Then have a break, regroup and have another small session.

The key with such a small win goal is definitely to build unit size as fast as possible as 1 or 2 units is not satisfactory low but up high you can spend minimal time at the casino and walkout with good $$

If you are losing a 124 then with a lower win goal you could drop back to 122, 112, 12, or flat bet

Then if you lose a progression its not that bad.

We all play different and have different win ratios / win goals, tolerance to long sessions.

way2fast can lose a 124 and recover.

kevin can play 4D and bet lots of hands and win a high number of units

Oz flat bets and has a win goal of 2-3 per shoe

I have based how I play on how Oz says he plays because it seems to suit me the best.

[Guest]

Yes everyone, this is an interesting and frustrating topic. It seems that you can feel when things are going south. You could be having a great day, suddenly you start to lose...you get that nervous warm jittery feeling --you start to second guess yourself --- and the next thing you know, you lost all you made and then some...

So let's start with this -- what do you do when you feel things are going south? Until you become extremely experienced and recovering, this is a good time to stop for the day. Or, take a long break. Get a cup of coffee or some food. Walk around and clear your head. Later, we can talk about some strategies to help you keep your winnings. But unless your head is clear, you will have difficulty no matter what.

[Guest]

Yes everyone, this is an interesting and frustrating topic. It seems that you can feel when things are going south. You could be having a great day, suddenly you start to lose...you get that nervous warm jittery feeling --you start to second guess yourself --- and the next thing you know, you lost all you made and then some...

So let's start with this -- what do you do when you feel things are going south? Until you become extremely experienced and recovering, this is a good time to stop for the day. Or, take a long break. Get a cup of coffee or some food. Walk around and clear your head. Later, we can talk about some strategies to help you keep your winnings. But unless your head is clear, you will have difficulty no matter what.

[brad01]

This seems like an appropriate thread to put this in

After a big weekend of playing online what I realised is that there is nothing more frustrating than being ahead a long way and then sustaining losses and giving it a lot of it back.

It comes down to what wolfat said in a comment about w/L tracking and sustaining a very high hit rate cannot last in a 50/50 game

He said if you can learn to ride the waves of luck you can gain a real edge in gambling.

Below is what I call wL matrix

record your wins and losses like so;

wwww

 LL

  L

Exactly like a baccarat shoe is recorded.

It is easy that way to see what is your hit rate and how many losses you are sustaining before a win

In that way when you are ahead by a long way I think its time to back off and pick your spots between actual bets and virtual bets.

Its not uncommon for losses and wins to come in 1's and 2's and every so often 3's

If they are coming in 1's and 2's that's 50/50 or close to

If its 2's and 3's that could be under or over in your favour or against it.

When you have won a lot maybe to back off and after 3 losses may be a good time to bet.

If your wins are coming in 2's then after a virtual win might be a good time would be to go for an actual bet.

Until you can ascertain that your luck is back to 50/50 or better after a good winning streak it may be wise to back off and use the wL matrix or similar to pick and choose your shots.

While we spend a lot of time on this forum with WHAT to bet when, I think we could do with ore time talking about HOW MUCH to bet when with $0 also being an amount we need to consider.

 

 

[wolfat]

Thank Brad to take care of my advices, hope more people will do it...

You can play the WL chart  in the way you suggested, anyway I take care also about averages and peaks of high and low.

keeping stats of this is very helpful, usually near peaks you can grab a lot of extra profit.

[pauld]

Thanks Brad, excellent idea.  I am going to add a column to my chart.

[brad01]

Virtual bet has mixed opinions.

I know wolfat believes for him unless real money the bet is not valid so then a low money bet will make sense.

I understand this logic as its easy to say 'I would have played like this and won' but for me (and its different for everyone) if you know the way you play and you are disciplined then you would only record a virtual bet as though it was real money so I feel its valid. (For me)

If you cant be disciplined to do that and virtual bets don't work then use low money bet.

Regardless the principle is the same - using peaks and lows and patterns of wins / losses / luck to maximise and minimise your bets at the right time.

This is something that is not discussed enough I feel. 

A lot about when WHAT to bet BANKER or PLAYER

A lot about how much to bet as a progression and various progressions

But not much about when to bet or not bet or bet more or bet less in relation to your wL patterns or luck cycles.

Anyone can be lucky or unlucky on any given day with bet selection

Anyone can choose an up as you win or up as you lose progression and put it into play

Not anyone except a skilled player can know what is their current hit rate, what is their current wL cycle

What is their average number of winning session before a losing session

And adjust their play accordingly. 

 

[brad01]

Heres a thought - in terms of bet selection it is simply explained that in a 50/50 game that is favouring repeats strongly if you bet repeats at that time your hit rate must be better than 50% provided the bias doesn't change on you at that moment in which case a stop loss comes into play but on the whole if you stick to that mentality you should get better than 50%

The same can be said for betting or not betting.

If you only bet when you know your hit rate is 50% or better and you don't bet when your hit rate drops below then you should win more than 50% of your bets provided at the moment you bet your hit rate / luck doesn't change in which case a stop loss come into play.

On the whole though if you are always betting with a good bet selection strategy and then ONLY at times when you know that strategy is performing at 50% or better then you have to be wining at 50% or better.

Further to that a progression or slight negative progression can get you through small bumps in the road and up as you win at the right time can maximise your wins.

Easier said than done