Parrondo's Paradox

[brad01]

Parrondo's Paradox is a phenomenon where 2 losing games can be combined to create a winning game.

the reason why this is possible is because is because one is able to vary the time and capital between the 2 games to avoid unfavourable conditions. 

How does this apply to baccarat or gambling? 

Take 2 strategies that have a mathematical negative expectancy but can win under favourable conditions and combine them and one is able to create a winning strategy by avoiding the unfavourable conditions of each.

example: nor and mdb+ 

vin-norsap

 

look it up

[ECD]

2 hours ago, brad01 said:

Parrondo's Paradox is a phenomenon where 2 losing games can be combined to create a winning game.

the reason why this is possible is because is because one is able to vary the time and capital between the 2 games to avoid unfavourable conditions. 

How does this apply to baccarat or gambling? 

Take 2 strategies that have a mathematical negative expectancy but can win under favourable conditions and combine them and one is able to create a winning strategy by avoiding the unfavourable conditions of each.

example: nor and mdb+ 

vin-norsap

 

look it up

Hey Brad,  didn't know that.  That is some good research on your part.  

Kudos

[brad01]

Thanks. 

Parrondos Paradox: in game theory is described as: a combination of losing strategies becomes a winning strategy. Named after its founder Juan Parrondo who discovered it in 1996

[Pando]

Here is a quote from Wizard of Vegas (hope its OK to post here)

 

Personally I don’t see what is so interesting about Parrondo’s paradox but you are not the first to ask me about it so I’ll give you my thoughts on it. The thrust of it is that if you alternate between two particular losing games the player can gain an advantage.

As an example, consider Game 1 in which the probability of winning $1 is 49% and losing $1 is 51%. In Game 2 if the player’s bankroll is evenly divisible by 3 he has a 9% chance of winning $1 and 91% of losing $1. In Game 2 if the player’s bankroll is not divisible by 3 he has a 74% chance of winning $1 and 26% of losing $1.

Game 1 clearly has an expected value of 49%*1 + 51%*-1 = -2%.

In Game 2 you can not simply take a weighed average of the two possibilities. This is because the game quickly gets off of a bankroll remainder of 1 with a win, and often alternates between remainders of 0 and 2. In other words the bankroll will disproportionately play the game with a 9% chance of winning. Overall playing Game 2 only the expected value is -1.74%.

However by alternating two games of Game 1 and two games of Game 2 we break the alternating pattern of Game 2. This results in playing the 75% chance game more and the 9% less. There are an endless number of ways to mix the two games. A 2 and 2 strategy of playing two rounds of Game 1 and two of Game 2, then repeating, results in an expected value of 0.48%.

I should emphasize this has zero practical value in the casino. No casino game changes the rules based on the modulo of the player’s bankroll. However I predict it is only a matter of time before some quack comes out with Parrondo betting system, alternating between roulette and craps, which of course will be just as worthless as every other betting system.

[brad01]

Never read the Wizard Of Odds or been a fan. Even more so now:

What he has done is copied a mathematical analysis off of google pretty much word for word but changed the variable symbols to make it look different

Then he says its worthless as it cant be applied to 2 different games - missing the point.

What about 2 different strategies applied to the same game?

I first heard of this on a roulette forum about 10 years ago where a guy used 5 of 6 lines as a unit building method and then 2 of 3 dozens as a recovery system when he lost the 6 line method

Switching between the 2 they worked perfectly to allow him to build small units most of the time and recover the small unit loss with the other method.

He referred to Parrandos Paradox then.

Applying this to baccarat when a NOR bias is running say OTBL and you bet 2's and 3's then you wait till you see x amount of 3's and apply MDB+ to wait or to bet this theory is Parrandos Paradox

What it means is what kachatz has been saying for a while - you need a range fo tools to beat bacc and 2 or more strategies combined to take advantage of strengths and weaknesses of each will allow you to do better than with just 1 strategy.

 

[Fedda]

Doesn't "Wizard of Odds" say that any casino game can't be beat because of house edge?

If so, as you know he's terrible wrong.

[brad01]

He's right in theory. 

Fortunately theory often goes out the window in the real world. 

According to mathematical calculations based on the surface area of a dragonflys wings, weight, speed that it's wings oscillate etc it should not be able to fly

[Pando]

Haha

Fair call Brad

Pano

[ECD]

On 12/25/2016 at 0:13 PM, brad01 said:

He's right in theory. 

Fortunately theory often goes out the window in the real world. 

According to mathematical calculations based on the surface area of a dragonflys wings, weight, speed that it's wings oscillate etc it should not be able to fly

That's pretty much what my wife said about my Hangliding exploits in the old days...Given the amount of time I spent hung up in trees or in Hospital Casualty...she was right