brad01

Hi guys most info you read on gambling will break it down into 3 areas: Bet Selection - How to determine what to bet on and when Money Management - How to determine how much to bet on and when Psychology Of Gambling - How to control the human emotions that will prevent one winning at gambling There has bee much talk about bet selection on this forum and there are many approaches different people use to gain a better than 50% edge in bet selection There has been not enough talk on money management in the past and as Keith says we have been too focused on Up As You Lose Negative Progressions as opposed to Up As You Win or Flat bet Approaches. Keith has addressed this with 221 approach. I have added the thread of money management with flat bet approach I recommend and a level up to increase unit size the last part of the puzzle is psychology of gambling and in the past I have ready that this is the most important aspect. I did not believe that as I thought that it was just use common sense and be focused etc and there was a magic system of MM and Bet Selection that would always pull you through. I now would say that this is the most important and difficult part of gambling and I would like to start this thread to discuss this. The first thing I would like to discuss is the 'constant mental training and conditioning' that is required to keep human emotions under control. We are all human and we all have certain tendencies and weaknesses. This is what the casino relies on. the fact that they have no emotion in what they do because it is a business that they have set up so that emotion doesn't come into it. You can pretty much learn a bet selection and MM approach in an hour or less and practise it and refine it and never really forget it Human emotion is not the same - you need constant training and mental conditioning to keep your emotions under control or they will slip back to where 99.9% of gamblers emotions are - vulnerable to lose. I would like to promote some discussion on the types of weaknesses and mindsets we want to avoid, the ones we need to develop, and ways to keep emotions under control.

Hi Tomas welcome to the forum. I don't know if we have any members from Netherlands. Good to hear you still play baccarat over there! Observant of you to notice the same bias on all 3 tables. Is it done by the casino? Well the answer would be the way they prepare and shuffle the cards? If its the same technique they use at every table which it probably is then highly likely it will be the same. Did they bias it to be neutral on purpose - who knows? Does it make it harder for the average player to win? Then they probably did it on purpose. The fact is that every casino tends to have similarities in their bias overall. That's what STATS FOR PROFITS software is for - to enable you to enter the shoes from your casino and find the similarities. Then you have half the battle won when you know which bias is more likely.

Hi trillion yes that's true and not true I joined as a public member and sat on the fence for many years about whether to join. I joined as MDB+ member 14 months ago and then joined netbet2hi as well so when I say I have only been member for 14 months I mean a payed member with access. Think about the forum before with some people with full access, some with only nor, some with mdb+ - it was not good and if you wanted to upgrade you had to outlay a lot of $$ $50 per month and everyone is on the same page less if you got the deal for mdb+ members

they are not always monitoring but they will get back to you within few days usually

Guys i joined about 14 months ago and only recently have I settled on my playing method its taken me a year of solid practise to see things clearly I am 53 units into a 57 unit base x10 plan - read money management members only post when I complete that (I expect this weekend) I will start a new one and on completion I will be playing 100 x my base and full time 1 more is 1000 x my base and that's big $$ that's all flat bet it is totally possible. all the info is here and if anyone wants to pm me or go on chat I'm happy to play an online shoe live with you so you can see how I play - you give me the results and i'll give you my plays and lets see if we are up by the end theres better players here but I'm making the offer to you guys Please support keith and mike and the forum who have invested a lot of money into it and stats for profit and give members access to EVERYTHING - PAST AND PRESENT AND FUTURE FOR ONE FEE PER MONTH If you PM me and learn $50 per month will not bother you any more because you will get that money back within weeks and much more put that scammer out of your mind - all you need is here there are low lifes in every walk of life just stay away from them

Premium section I believe

3EM 3EM 3EM!

Hi Try, I average 2 -3 units per shoe Sometimes I play a partial shoe and only target 1 unit Because I have a lot of commitments in my business I usually play very early when I wake up or late when I'm tired so not really ideal That's why I have to lower my win target to be very low and only take the best bets I would say average 20 shoes but most only partially played. Have you read my concept of base x 10 level up in Money Management? I'm striving to complete 2 of those which means once completed I will be playing 100 x my base unit and that will be enough for full time. That's 59 units x 2 = 118 units to win to complete. Of course you have losing sessions, commission depletion, and losses due to level up crossover to consider. I was real close to completing my first base x 10 and then 2 losing sessions of total 9 units Now a bit of time off to practise and then keep climbing.

+44 units until the other night played when very tired 9 units to make back. I still have those lapses every so often unfortunately

Thanks for the feedback Yeah the triggers are purely based 3 wins in a row or 3 of 4 etc for a particular bias and so we are assuming that shoes will change bias regularly but if a sequence is winning 3 iar or 3 of 4 it should be able to win 1 or 2 more (hopefully!) Of course you cant beat the maths of the game and being selective in when you take which triggers will increase hit rate. Then there is major trends in shoes in which they will have a tendency to go longer on certain biases and keep going back to certain biases If you can pick that and use the short term trigger to tell you when the major trend is coming back that is truly powerful You can go OTR until 2 or 3 losses too if you think it will sustain - get a TBL / S40M1 bias that goes for 30 hands without 3 consecutive OTBL results and you really clean up Same goes for other biases just S40M1 seems to go longer in general (ask Pando)

Hi Try, Thanks for contributing to the forum with the 4D analyser mod. In regards to hand shuffled cards you will expect to see some bias there. There has been a lot of talk back and forth about hand shuffled produces this, factory shuffle produces that. NOR is designed for hand shuffle MDB+ is designed for factory The above statements may have some legitimacy to it but in reality its not that easy to win with NOR on hand shuffle nor is it just that easy to win with MDB+ for factory shuffled cards There is an overlap - you can find sections of bias in factory AND you can find MDB+ bets in hand shuffle. You never really know what you are going to get. As kachatz (25 year veteran player / member) says: We are facing minefields out there today. My advice is to do what you are doing and read everything and TRY everything! Eventually you will find a technique you like that will suit your personality, your method of play, the type of shoes you often encounter You will create your own style that works for you. Whether it be MDB+, NOR , 4D, 5D, SAP exploits, 3EM, or a combination you will find a way to gain that better than 50% edge over the casino. And if your not sure of something and something is bugging you then ask people here - we will answer you. Last advice from me: Whatever strategy you decide to play to make your bet selection there are 2 other aspects to gambling which are just as important and in fact MORE IMPORTANT: How much will you bet and when and how you manage your BR Psychology and mental training - patience, control your emotions, stick to the game plan etc etc A LAST COMMENT THAT THE NEW ASPECT TO THIS FORUM WHICH MAKES IT UNIQUE TO EVERY OTHER FORUM IS THE STATS FOR PROFIT SOFTWARE AND THE ABILITY FOR US TO DTERMINE CASINO DEPENDANT BIASES. IF WE CAN DO THAT AS KEITH HAS BEEN SAYING THEN IT MAY ALL COME DOWN TO OPPOSITES VS REPEATS AND AN UP AS YOU WIN PROGRESSION - DONT FORGET TO CONSIDER THIS AS KEITH AND MIKE HAVE INVESTED A LOT OF TIME AND MONEY FOR US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS. All the best Brad

And don't get distracted by the short skirts! There were 2 Asian girls at the roulette table yesterday. Damn they were hot Chinese - maybe from Hong Kong I think Tattoos, one with a black dress, one with grey. Could have been hookers. Cant remember if I won the bet at that table!

I've often said Australian casinos are bad Crown is owned by James Packer and his major asset is gaming He maximises profits Small things he does to make it much harder to win and deter you. All our shoes go through auto shufflers and you don't get a chance to touch them. Put up your money or they don't deal Here is one shoe just played: B21321212212121231621764321311 Mostly OTBL type shoes we seem to get here with twists thrown in Remember my post everything but the 4's - this is why I did that look at this shoe. Look at this sequence within: 764(3) I was the only person at the table who bet 3 stays 3. All chinese players betting on repeat Big big $$ lost by everyone except me on that bet But I got sick of their policy and so I mostly play roulette red black now I can walk up anytime its fast play and they will spin the wheel even if you don't bet all the time.

This brings up the topic of playing with and around other people. I personally don't like it as it puts pressure on you to perform or at least it can make you feel uneasy when you know people are watching you. This can have an influence on your bets. If you had the right partner to play with it could help you. In Australia they will not deal unless you bet all the time. When a table is busy you can place side bets when everyone is playing. When everyone leaves a table it stays empty until someone comes in and starts betting every hand. 2 people could play alternate sides minimum bet to force them to draw cards. Back to the point of the topic - playing with and around other people can influence your bets.

Yeah don't play with any alcohol in your system. Not even 1 drink That's one of my personal rules.

The triggers don't do too bad. I believe better than 50/50 I have not had access to scanner over weekend to post the rest If selective about which ones to take and when to use 1,2 then you can stay ahead.

Not a BJ player would like to learn. Theory of NBJ seems good

1. I think to win $10k betting $200 max in a short time frame is either a lot of luck or a lot of skill. I think it is a good result. 2. Seems highly unlikely but the idea was table selection was used and playing at same casino every day with same cards maybe you could pick the techniques needed.

what you are saying is correct. 243 loses first bet after trigger but wins second. with 1,2 progression LW result wins. not sure if this is what I meant. will post all triggers on scoresheet this weekend

not a big fan of rd1 don't mind it but would just rather play repeats

CT70 was a big RD1 fan. He used to use it on roulette as streak after streak it would clean up. I agree that is the strength of RD1 - repeats and those ZZ 2;s Its the only system that deals with them really well. Problem is when its not streaky it doesn't do so well He used to avoid the losing pattern when he thought it was coming.

Hi Lou, Well I really believe we should learn from other types of investing. What we do is hopefully closer to investing than gambling - well that's what I hope anyway. Sports betters can do the best they can with picks and still lose and there's nothing they can do. We can change approaches or biases, they cant - they can only choose what they believe to be the winning team or result. Therefore they rely on a very solid Money Management and Bank Size to get them through. Stock Traders as I see it have very defined targets in place. They can predict how they think the market will go but they still can be wrong. I like the way they use an automatic stop loss and trailing stops in their trades. That way they can sleep and if the market falls there's an automatic sell option there locking in a profit. I think we should learn from that in having automatic stop losses but also defined win goals. Its easy to say when it goes your way keep betting but what is your target? Many people play with no win goal per bet or per session. I believe we should treat every bet like an individual trade in itself - it must have a stop loss and a win goal. The course I did taught this type of technique they called ABC trading which the diagram shows. Eg If you see 4 players in a row and you choose to go with the bias (rising market) - what is your stop loss? 1 unit? - then you can only bet 1 unit and if you lose you have hit it - you lost that trade - move on If you win you won 1 unit - what is your win goal? If its 1 unit then you should not bet again. If its more than 1 unit then you bet again. Where is your trailing stops? -1 unit? The if you lose the next bet you have hit the trailing stop.

I know of 3 market types Rising (bull) Falling (bear) Sideways Most basic traders only look for rising market More experienced can short trade on falling market Nobody likes sideways that I know of and that's quite often how the markets go

A - the point where things plateau out and a rising trend starts falling B - the point where the falling trend hits an expected low and starts rising C - the point where a rising trend hits an expected plateau and starts falling.

Hi Fred, At the moment I am just playing 1 bet after trigger but recording the second. I am trying to see if the first bet after the trigger has terrible results then I will bet for the second instead. If they both have reasonable results then I will bet on both. What I found so far is the following: The first bets are pretty good - better than 50% I believe but of course not always - like any strategy there are times when t doesn't perform as well as we'd like BUT I have never seen it do really badly and at worst be down 1 or 2 units or break even. More often than not it wins on balance averaging a few unit. The second bet is usually also pretty good. I would nearly say bet on both but I don't quite have enough results yet. Last night I tested a shoe that was like: ww Lw Lw LL Lw wL ww Lw The first bet broke even The second bet won on balance But betting on both won on balance too I will let you know any updates but at this moment I would say betting on 2 bets is just as good. I record like this OTBL 22 wL (7) what that means is OTBL trigger (you don't have to record that if you don't want once you memorise the triggers 22 is the actual trigger wL is the first and second trigger results (7) is the number of plays the bias lasted for. Example of this: PPBB - that's the trigger - its a 22 with an UNCONFIRMED 2 (I WILL PUT EXPLANATION OF THIS ON LAST 3 EVENTS METHOD POST) PPBB - this gives 3 wins in a row for OTBL bias - www - so we bet next result is OTBL which would be P The whole sequence will be: PPBBPBBPBP - THIS WILL PRODUCE - WWW(WL)WWLL - THE FIRST 3 WINS ARE THE TRIGGER THEN THE 2 RESULTS IN BRACKETS ARE THE FIRST AND SECOND WINS AFTER THE TRIGGER AND THEN I RECORD THE REST OF THE WINS UNTIL 2 LOSSES AS 2 LOSSES IS A TRIGGER TO END WHEN FLAT BETTING AND THATS WHAT THIS METHOD IS BASED AROUND SO YOU CAN SEE THERE IS 7 PLAYS OF OTBL BIAS SO THE RESULT IS RECORDED AGAIN AS: OTBL 22 WL (7) NOW IF YOU RECORD THE LENGTH OF THE BIASES YOU WILL SEE THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST 1 LONG BIAS PER SHOE OF 15 PLAYS OR MORE IF YOU GET 2 OR 3 SHORT BiASES OF 7 - 10 PLAYS YOU COULD REASONABLY PREDICT A LONG ONE IS COMING THIS IS WHAT I'M TRING TO DO TO PREDICT THAT AND BET AN UP AS YOU WIN ON THAT ONE SO WE CAN NET A 1,2 OR A 1,2,2, OR A 1,2,3, OR A 1,2,4 IF YOU WANT OR FLAT BET UNTIL 3 LOSSES Keeping a SAP count also helps to predict results and when to take or not take triggers I also find it tells you the tendency of the shoe to either equalise a SAP count or to stretch a SAP count wider Short term NOR is obviously better when SAP count is widening MDB+ is generally better when a SAP count equalises or you see 'chaos' NTR said he also finds a SAP count beneficial to his MDB+ play in that a equalising SAP count will mean original MDB+ triggers will probably be best. Sometimes you will see a really strong bias and in that case NOR in original form works better and its much simpler to play EG when you see 1's and 2's that are strong with a few 3's and nothing past a 3 then you may want to consider dropping everything and applying a 1,2,2 progression with S40M3 I will be sure to update you on the progress of this but I believe we have all bases covered now with short term NOR for constantly changing biases, MDB+ for 'chaos' or minimal biases, and standard NOR when a SAP count shows the bias is so strong and consistent that all you need to do is select a mode and play it through. I really don't see any other possibilities for shoe characteristics. I usually find a SAP count will either equalise or it wont and if you can determine that then you will know what to play.