Pando

There are a lot of questions here and there is not one answer Can I illustrate my view by example of a shoe today B121131111111311131121421412317111111111112114 (+24) $600 Points to note: The first 4 is what I call a weak trigger, as it is preceded by multiple 3's, and it was well into the shoe Because the 4 was only 4 and not longer, that makes it even weaker. If it had been 7 or 8 I would have been happier. But then we did have another 4, a 7, then another 4 at the end. I had cashed out by the time the last 4 came. That's about as weak a shoe as I would play this, but still it came trough OK, as the 3's dried up once the first 4 arrived (As Wolfat said we have to adapt our game to the shoe as it unfolds) The upside of the shoe was that the 1's were very high (33), and the 2's were low (5) Í ignore the 2's, I don't play them at all. If the 2 stays 2, and we start to see 1's then I play opposites (as in S40M1) which worked out nicely If 2 goes to 3, I consider whether its wise to bet 3 goes to 4, to just sit out the hand (Oz/Norm would attest to this) That all depends on how strong the trigger is - today it was weak I finished the shoe +24 units, flat betting 2 units with an occasional 3 when I was ahead (positive progression) Win 23 bets, lost 10 bets, which is 70% success rate, right on my running average I am happy with that My other shoe was B225241121112311121111142114331132 (+8) 2's were high early (warning, warning) but I picked up a few units here and there Not a bad day, +32 units (+$800) in 2 shoes

Fair enough Baccman That's how I usually play (flat or 2 3 loop) and yes that wins very well around 70% I was just thinking aloud really

To Oz and CT70, you have made my day This information is pure gold, from two of the clearly best and successful players around On behalf of all of us, thanks a million

In shoes where there has already been a 7IAR, and we expect another long IAR run, maybe we can play the 1-3-2-6 progression For illustration, assume a bankroll of 10 units 1) First bet 1 unit, if loose -1 unit, [bankroll 9 units], if win +1 unit, bankroll 11 units 2) Assuming winning the previous bet, next bet 3 units, if loose -3 units, [bankroll 8 units], if win +3 units, bankroll now 14 units 3) Assuming winning the previous bet, next bet 2 units, if loose -2 units [bankroll 12 units] if win +2 units, bankroll now 16 units 4) Assuming winning the previous bet, next and final bet 6 units, if loose -6 units [ bankroll 10 units], if win +6 units, bankroll now 22 units You can see the maximum risk is only 2 units The possible outcomes are losing 1 unit, losing 2 units, winning 2 units, winning zero units, or winning 12 units I think its a really good option when there are consistent long streaks in a shoe

I like the idea of checking if 3's are MC and betting accordingly, and to follow all the way OTR if 4+ is stronger than 4 Good thinking Baccman

Brilliant post OZ, thanks a million, we love having you here For my own part I start flat betting in every shoe, and then advance to play a 2/3 loop when I am ahead

Yes to both of those is a good conservative position I do see shoes where all of the runs stop at 4 or 5 When I have time I want to chart the first IAR run in a shoe verses later IAR runs in a shoe If it shows that there is a high percentage of shoes when the first IAR is a good indicator of later runs, then we are in great shape with this play

Fantastic result Baccman, brilliant Staying on the run is a bit subjective, in other words it depends on many factors If the runs are only 4IAR, then I win 3 goes to 4, and loose 4 goes to 5, ie: even If the run is 5IAR, then I win 2 bets and loose 1, so nett +1, and so on So I look at the history of the runs to see how long they are, it usually a pretty good guide as to what will happen, mostly anyway If they are already long, that will probably continue, but nothing is set in concrete. Secondly I also look at my position in the shoe. Am I just starting the shoe, am I ahead, or way ahead That will determine whether I stop the run, (at 5 for example) and take a 1 unit profit. So I cannot give a definite answer except to say that you only loose the last bet when on the run. So unless I have other factors to convince me otherwise (as above) I usually stay until then end I have had some amazing runs, I think 18IAR is the most. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Statsforprofits is part of BTC - I have loaded my shoes into the website and it does analysis of the shoes. Its brilliant

I have some statistics from my local casino which I propose applies to most others. It doesn't exactly answer your question as you wrote it, but it is close. I have computed statistics for over 200 shoes, and additional unwritten observations and playing records which show that 1) After a 4IAR or more, the likelihood of another 4IAR or more, before I see three x 3IAR's, in the same shoe, is 92% 2) The longer the IAR run is, the more likely another or multiple longer IAR's will occur 3) There were very few shoes (less than 2%) where there was only one 4IAR or more in the shoe When I see a 4IAR or more, I play every 3IAR to become a 4IAR unless there have been three 3's staying 3 without going to a 4IAR. In that case I find another shoe. Sorry I do not have the same stats for ZZ runs but by observation, I suspect they are less reliable But the way you have written the question, I would answer by saying probably yes. Because playing the way I describe here wins almost 70% of all bets The only thing to decide is whether to play the IAR's until the end or not. Some times I will see nothing longer than a 4IAR, in which case I break even on the sequence. The longer the first IAR sequence, the better. Hope this helps

It is a probing bet to some extent. At my casino the shoes tend to be similar on different days, so if I see other shoes that are starting with anything but 1's then I am prepared to begin the shoe at the second hand and hope its not starting with a 1. I also have my theory about cutting the shoe. I do this at every opportunity, I will wait for a new shoe and try to cut it. My records show that when I cut the shoe according to my criteria, the chances of a long streak is very high. That helps a great deal.

There is nothing hard about it, no decisions to make except 1) Whether to chip up when there is a long run 2) When to switch to playing opposites. I do that after seeing 2 x 1,s (such as 211) I always look for a shoe that starts with no 1's, such as 324, something like that but it can be played from the second hand of the shoe

First hand is B So after the first B I would bet banker on the next play (win). That's BB Then I wait to see if the B2 stays 2, or goes to a 3. It went to B3. That's BBB Then I would play B again, but it didn't follow (loss) That's BBBP So now I would play P again (win) That's BBBPP Now I am waiting to see if the P2 stays 2, or goes to P3. It stayed P2. That's BBBPPB Now I bet banker again (this is looking like a running shoe now), wins. That's BBBPPBB Now I am waiting to see if the B2 stays 2, or goes to B3. It went to B3. That's BBBPPBBB Now I bet B again, wins. That's BBBPPBBBB. Now I am OTR with B, and its also the strong side So all I am doing is avoiding the 2's. Later in the shoe when it isn't a running shoe, I need to switch to playing opposites. That's my basic method, just staying away from the 2's. As it transpired, there were only 2 x 2's in the shoe but we weren't to know that

Yes that shoe is basically S40 and SS - nothing else really gets a look in. KISS - cant keep saying it enough

I see plenty of SS shoes in pre-shuffle factory shoes, and even stronger SS shoes in machine shuffled (auto shuffled) shoes. I personally don't think there is any reason to fear any kind of card preparation - as Brad says they throw us curve balls all the time

I personally operate on the KISS principle, maybe because I am not able to determine a bias within a bias perfectly. I therefore take an easy approach, S40M1 and stick religiously to that. There are enough opportunities to do that alone most days, although its variable. I go for less risk, and regular smaller rewards, although on occasions there are some high rewards in the better shoes. Sometimes though there are no reasons to play any shoe at all. We are all different and have different approaches, and its a matter of what suits us individually. There are enough ways to enhance our play, for example through good Money Management, rather than trying to do too much, in my view. If we can tweak an extra unit here or there by good MM then surely that's better than making wrong betting decisions.

Thanks Oz. Like you I almost always flat bet, perhaps a 1-2 loop in a good shoe, so I see where you are coming from If I happen to be behind in the shoe I only flat bet until I get my loss back. I am very conservative, so I figure if I cannot get back to even by flat betting then I should not be in the shoe. I consider 2's to be the most unreliable unless they are clumped (2222) but a 21212 situation is very dangerous. As you say its a 50/50 proposition unless there is a strong bias I really appreciate your input.

Yes I agree Brad, especially your point about the 2's. That's why I maintain 2's are everything - they are the key to most shoes. They ARE unreliable, and waiting for a 3IAR is a very good approach. This is a great discussion

Great post Oz, you put it much better than me and with more detail. Excellent stuff.

Brad, I also incorporate that into my betting now where I look to see, for example, does a strong sided shoe over ride the pattern that should occur, such as a run of opposites. A classic example would be if I see say a banker 6IA streak, then a player, then a banker, is the next play going to be banker or player. The way I see it is that it should normally be a player (opposite) as its looking like a S40 shoe, but that in this case I would bet banker as it is the much stronger side. Actually if it was a banker, it is still a S40 shoe, but the streak is running rather than the chop. I think the strong side, if there is one, dominates shoe in most cases. If the next banker run was short, say a 2, then I would bet opposites when the next banker came.

I used to feel sorry for people like her, but they do what the want, and that's up to them. I suspect she wasn't a novice in terms of playing experience. I once got on the right side of a 12IAR, an older lady bet against the run every time, lost her bankroll. Then she went to the cage and got more money, fronted another table and played the same way. Some people cannot be helped

I saw something like this on Sunday I was turning the cards as I had already had a good shoe when a 10IAR streak started (there had already been a 6IAR and a 5IAR) A pretty young thing sat down and started betting against what was then only 2IAR Her bets started at $50 (4 of them), then 3 at $100, then 2 at $200 and 1 at $300, all against the run. She lost every hand and her bankroll pretty damn quick. Conversely, I won every hand in the 10IAR The interesting thing was that in the vast majority of her cards dealt were horrible pairs of 10's, and invariably she drew a rubbish 1 or 2, or another 10 as the 3rd card My hands were not brilliant, cant remember any naturals, but it was that hers were so very poor Only the last play of the 10IAR I drew a 10 and a 2, she drew a 10 and 1. Then I drew another 10, to stay on my total of 2. And guess what, she drew a 9 to go with her 1 for a total of zero, and quickly left. So the good cards don't have to be miracle cards, just better than the other side.

OK, here are my shoes from Sunday B1121111215211124312113211222122112213211 (I came in at the end of this shoe, got caught actually too many 2's, lost 4 x 2 unit bets nett -8) B1111121111111111111142234211 (nice +17) I cut this shoe B51413211111111111113113 (out at +12) - only one 2. Came into the shoe just as the 1's started, left when the 3's arrived P61152111111(10)1321 (out +20). Love the 6,5,10 IAR, and only two 2's. I cut this shoe, there was a distinct mark in the mark in the deck which is where I cut it, and perfectly it started with a 6IAR. I then knew I had a 95% chance there would be more streaks (based on my own shoe data) Overall +$1000, 40 units @ $25

The last 3 posts from Oz, Brad and Avion are worth their weight in gold We are never too old to learn, I only started playing this game less than 2 years ago The information is all here, all we have to do is use it and practice.

That's a priceless post Oz, than you. And OK, I am 65 too