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What system would you use on this shoe?


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PPBBPBBPPPPPPBPBBBPPBPPPBPPPBBBBPBBPBBBBBBPPBPPB

I started with OTB4L and stuck through it. I exited at +23 after 149 units wagered for a 15% PA, however now that I am looking at it again, maybe this wasn't the best system. In any case, no complaints at +23.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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you profited 23 units up with 149 units wagered??, may i ask what was your progression?? cause it sounds pretty dangerous to me. cause if you using OTB4L and you have to wger 149 units to only gain 23+. i dont really think OTB4L was the good system for that shoe. you need to have a second thought about that. causes it's too obviouse because you said you have to wager 149 units :) if you really pick the right system. it wouldn't let you go through that risk and earn only 23+ :)

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("-_-)-_-*)

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you profited 23 units up with 149 units wagered??, may i ask what was your progression?? cause it sounds pretty dangerous to me. cause if you using OTB4L and you have to wger 149 units to only gain 23+. i dont really think OTB4L was the good system for that shoe. you need to have a second thought about that. causes it's too obviouse because you said you have to wager 149 units :) if you really pick the right system. it wouldn't let you go through that risk and earn only 23+ :)

Tang, check your arithmetic. That is a 15.4% Player Advantage which is Excellent play!

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I use up 1 down 1 with no stop loss. I rely on a 100 unit bankroll and NOR bet placement to keep me in the game, however I should have gone OTR a few times, but didn't. Would have changed to about 140 units bet and +25.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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I use up 1 down 1 with no stop loss. I rely on a 100 unit bankroll and NOR bet placement to keep me in the game, however I should have gone OTR a few times, but didn't. Would have changed to about 140 units bet and +25.

I invented the U1D1 25 years ago and it is a very courageous betting method when you KNOW you are in a good shoe and playing the right system. Not for the meek!

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It is not without some heavy heartache, but wins are typically in the +20 range while still exiting before the end of the 3rd column. I can usually hit +10 in the first column and if I am playing black I will usually exit at this point.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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It is not without some heavy heartache, but wins are typically in the +20 range while still exiting before the end of the 3rd column. I can usually hit +10 in the first column and if I am playing black I will usually exit at this point.

Right. It's a good progression but a bit of overkill for a good NOR player. Sorta like shooting a canary with a 12 gage. It requires a bigger buy-in than I'm comfortable with for new players. Our progressions hit +10 in the first col quite often too and +20 or +30 are quite achievable when you can advance to the 234/345. Even +40. But I like the idea of new players never having to bet more than 5.

I'd rather have them increase their profits by increasing their unit size which is a whole lot easier with our NOR progs than with an U1D1.

But either way is a whole lot better than the 89 unit bets some sites have you making. Those are fine on your kitchen table but in a casino they could give you a heart attack!

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Yes I agree with the +10 units with black I have a question regarding PA% advantage calculation.

Pardon my question and I am still in the learning curve but perhaps I missed it in the manual

how do you calculate PA advantage?

Thanks

Don't apologize for questions. I realized watching the seminar tape that one of you had P.A. (Player Advantage) totally wrong. It is simply money or units won divided by total money or units bet. It has nothing to do with your buy-in money.

At the PA seminar I played 6 shoes and won 55 units. I bet a total of 211 units in those 6 shoes. So my P.A. is 55/211=.26 or 26%. This is undoubtedly a world record for 6 shoes by a country mile. But one of their doubting Thomases recorded every single play. And the whole trip is posted at ImSpirit for the whole world to see. Sure, you can get lucky and hit 26% in one shoe but when you hit 26% for 6 consecutive shoes at 4 different tables at two different casinos, luck had nothing to do with it.

Again, by comparison, the card counter goes through all that study and practice in an attempt to achieve a 1/2% P.A. but never quite makes it. This means that a perfect card counter betting the same 211 units would be trying to win ONE damn unit. And he very likely won't even make that! Again, to me this is waitress change and a complete waste of time. Yet, you will never find a card counter that even averages their 1/2% P.A. goal. All those movies and books and sites are about nonsense. But that is Hollywood for you.

Our NOR P.A. goal is double digit or ten %. Not only do we make it, you will see many NOR trip reports with PAs in the teens and low 20s. Nearly all gaming experts and gurus will tell you that double digit PAs are absurdly impossible. They will call us liars. Well, they are right! Double digit PAs ARE impossible - FOR THEM!

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Yes I agree with the +10 units with black

To each his own and I have played U1D1 far more than any other player. But you simply don't need to take that kind of risk to make ten units. Mike is obviously a very good player. But I know from experience that Mike has a lot of shoes he wished he'd have quit before -8. But you simply can't afford to do that with U1D1.

But again, if all the casinos had to suddenly give back all the money players lost beyond -8, think of how many winning players that would create.

BTW Aegis will tell you that a few years back we tested U1D1 net betting straight OTB4L for 1000 shoes - or maybe it was 10,000. The test achieved a 34% P.A. BUT, it had some huge draw downs along the way.

There was a site back then that offered a $30,000 reward to anyone who could beat 10,000 shoes with any system. They withdrew their offer right after we posted our test results. BTW 1000 or 10,000, it makes no difference.

Top computer experts tell me that NOR could be tested the same way but I'm not so sure. How in hell do you program table selection??? System selection would be way beyond my capabilities but I see no way to accurately program table selection. It would end up too wild a simulation to be trustworthy in my opinion - but I'm no expert.

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Ty for your quick response to my question Ellis

I think NOR is possible to program in computer simulation but would definetly be a difficult task. I have toyed with the idea but nor ready for the challenge yet, I am still having difficulty as to deciding what system to use on a shoe at the start. I do not see a clear definitive answer as what determines this other than a pattern at the beginning and not sure as to know when to wait for twelve hands played or does the twelvfth hand confirm you've chosen the correct system for that shoe

Please clarify this for me,

Thanks

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Ty for your quick response to my question Ellis

I think NOR is possible to program in computer simulation but would definetly be a difficult task. I have toyed with the idea but nor ready for the challenge yet, I am still having difficulty as to deciding what system to use on a shoe at the start. I do not see a clear definitive answer as what determines this other than a pattern at the beginning and not sure as to know when to wait for twelve hands played or does the twelvfth hand confirm you've chosen the correct system for that shoe

Please clarify this for me,

Thanks

Well for system selection you should start with the OR count:

Significantly plus = S40

Significantly Minus = F

Hovering 0 = OTB4L

Nothing else is possible

That is usually very accurate.

Down the road a little you will find you no longer need the OR count to go through this process. You will automatically pick up on what events each system likes AND DISLIKES.

But for now:

1's = S40

2s = OTB4L

3 or mores = F

Nothing else is possible. Forget ties. All they do is screw up your score card.

Down the road you will see that 40 handles but dislikes straight runs.

OTB4L handles but dislikes both straight and ZZ runs but loves TT runs (BB PP BB PP) and it likes 3s and single 1's. We call those sporadic 1's.

But all 3 of our NOR systems like Sporadic 1's by design so they are nothing to worry about (Half of all 1's are Sporadic (single) 1's but some shoes favor Sporadic and some favor Multiple 1's.

F dislikes 2s and/or 3s on the weak side.

F LOVES a strong side, the stronger the better. Like the 313s or 212s or 414s.

All 3 systems also like the 21212s which is the most common pattern after straight and ZZ runs.

F does not particularly like the TTs because it forces F into Mode 3. But OTB4L loves them and S40 likes them.

That is really all the patterns there are.

Right now everything is a little collidesscopic for you and you are trying to learn a lot of different principles at the same time. But it won't take long where you can spot a good tote board W/O breaking stride down the isle and automatically know which system to play and which Mode to start in. But EVERYBODY started right where you are right now and were just as confused as you are. Now, most of those guys win every trip and losing has become a thing of the past.

12 hands might be OK starting out but you will soon find you needn't wait that long. Unless I wasn't there for the beginning of the shoe I nearly always start somewhere in the first 5 hands. If you still don't know what to play after 7 or 8 hands, the shoe is likely not worth playing at all. You want pronounced decisive biases.

I keep seing the question: Which system would you have played in this shoe??? Those guys have got it backwards. There is no point in lingering at a table where the answer isn't clear right off the bat. You are there to kill them - not to experiment. If the system isn't clear keep on trucking.

I think the hardest part for me is breaking old habits people have acquired mostly by watching others make the same mistakes. Remember, those other guys lose to the tune of 26%. WE are in a league of our own!

Ha, A guy called to say he had a great system that beat everything except the 212s. I said forget it. You will lose every shoe. There is no such thing as a good system that loses to the most common pattern there is. He tried it anyway. Yep, he lost!

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Thanks for the help it definately cleared things up for me. As you know from our previous phone conversations I am a serious player and have a tendency to analyze this game to death. Although this is true once I am on the right track. The casino staff knows me all to well as an advantage player and have even approached me one time and accused me of card counting with baccarat.... Can you believe it? I told the security staff and pit boss that I was not doing anything of the kind and suggested to them that they are watching too many movies. Since then, I don't like the eye in the sky to see my card and often cover it up as much as possible to the extent of placing chips on top of it as well. Have any NOR players receive any heat with the system?

The OR count helps as I see it and I was more focused in the paterns

Thanks for clearing this up

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accused me of card counting with baccarat.... Can you believe it? I told the security staff and pit boss that I was not doing anything of the kind and suggested to them that they are watching too many movies.

The OR count helps as I see it and I was more focused in the paterns

Thanks for clearing this up

Ha, that was an excellent suggestion! Card counting makes even less sense in Baccarat than it does in BJ. Casino peans have no idea of what is really going on. Casinos operate on a need to know basis just like most U.S. corporations. The casino peans often end up making fools of themselves while trying to make a name for theirselves. No casinos give any heat to Bac players. It just that some casino employees never get the word.

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Well. They did embarrass themselves cuz the whole table roared with laughter when I told the security guy that he has been watching too many movies. Lol

I kept my and contunued to play and they left me alone

They Asians have often followed me in the past, in our local casino here, they call me "Moneytree'. The casino is my backyard to go get the money from the tree.

I try to keep my identity anonymous as possible there other than Moneytree

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Ty for your quick response to my question Ellis

I think NOR is possible to program in computer simulation but would definetly be a difficult task. Thanks

I was thinking of taking on this task in the new year.

Wish me luck! LOL

"If you don't think too good, don't think too much!!"

-----------------------

John

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Well. They did embarrass themselves cuz the whole table roared with laughter when I told the security guy that he has been watching too many movies. Lol

I kept my and contunued to play and they left me alone

They Asians have often followed me in the past, in our local casino here, they call me "Moneytree'. The casino is my backyard to go get the money from the tree.

I try to keep my identity anonymous as possible there other than Moneytree

HEy, when the Asians start following you that is a VERY good sign. I love the bastards!

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Most Asians are good people and they love the game, besides. My wife is from Hong Kong

We were in Macau last year and I went into the biggest casino there I've never seen so many baccarat tables in my life!! I lost count after 40 wish I lived there

I believe Macau has 450 Bac tables. My girl friend is Cherokee Indian. I'm not sure what the hell I am. Nor, does it matter.

Look, we all have something in common. Let's be friends. We are not responsible for the mistakes of our ancestors. Let's rise above all that bull shit. We are better than that. Let's show the whole world a new way. We are all humans, all brothers. We all have something to learn from each other. We have a common enemy - the casinos. Hey, that is an enemy formidable enough. Let's all work together. Lets beat the bastards. I don't give a hoot whether your name is Tang or Tom. EVERYONE is welcome here. We have a common interest - a common goal. Together, let's be a truly international force to be reckoned with! Hey, what's wrong with that?

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