Switching

[ztomsk]

Just curious on anyone's thoughts about switching. I know what to look for and what events for each system. But since OTBL has such a wide coverage it makes me apprehensive about switching (once I start in an OTBL shoe).

A recent trip the shoes were OTBL. I played the first one and won +15 without even thinking - almost all events were 2s and 3s both straight and ZZ. Wish they were all like that haha. Now the second shoe started out kind of teetering on the edge of OTBL and S40. But def more towards S40 I would say. I kept hitting my 4 and 5 bets but was winning them. In the back of my head I knew I should be playing S40 so I quit when I got to +4 playing OTBL.

I've become so proficient at OTBL and it has such a wide coverage that I'm afraid to switch once in it. And I am concerned that a trigger to switch might just be a only rough spot in the shoe. So am am just curious - is it better to switch when everything sais switch or to stick it out with OTBL (or whatever system you start in and/or you don't hit your stop loss) and shoot for a lower stop win? I guess both are a bit of a risk...

I was playing quarters - so a $100 on a tough shoe was fine by me so I chose to quit instead of switch.

[Guest]

Just curious on anyone's thoughts about switching. I know what to look for and what events for each system. But since OTBL has such a wide coverage it makes me apprehensive about switching (once I start in an OTBL shoe).

A recent trip the shoes were OTBL. I played the first one and won +15 without even thinking - almost all events were 2s and 3s both straight and ZZ. Wish they were all like that haha. Now the second shoe started out kind of teetering on the edge of OTBL and S40. But def more towards S40 I would say. I kept hitting my 4 and 5 bets but was winning them. In the back of my head I knew I should be playing S40 so I quit when I got to +4 playing OTBL.

I've become so proficient at OTBL and it has such a wide coverage that I'm afraid to switch once in it. And I am concerned that a trigger to switch might just be a only rough spot in the shoe. So am am just curious - is it better to switch when everything sais switch or to stick it out with OTBL (or whatever system you start in and/or you don't hit your stop loss) and shoot for a lower stop win? I guess both are a bit of a risk...

I was playing quarters - so a $100 on a tough shoe was fine by me so I chose to quit instead of switch.

And you may very well have been exactly right ztomsk. On the other hand, a critical switch at the right time can be very rewarding. The key word there is can because a switch that seems right can also be devastating. Yes, we have "Overlay" and we have the "OR count". But sometimes these tools are like trying to use a pick axe to fix a china plate.

No matter how many tools I invent, switching is truly an art form What works one day in one casino, backfires the next day in a different casino.

We are left with using our tools only as a rough guide, as a compass. Sure, maybe our compass says go straight North. But what if there is a swamp straight North and it is pitch black out? Ha, been there before in the Army. You don't step off a log into 6 feet of muck in total darkness like some did. You go AROUND the swamp. Compasses can do that!

We end up doing what is right THAT day at THAT casino at THAT table.

The last Vegas trip was an excellent example. And the same thing was happening all over Vegas. EVERY shoe, no matter where we played. Every shoe was about half S40 and half OTB4L. Overlay kept shouting at us to switch. But DAMN, every single time we tried to switch, we were too late - the shoe went right back to whichever we were trying to switch from. It was like freaking clockwork.

So the name of the game that trip became DON'T SWITCH. Either quit or ride it out. But if you ride it out, be prepared for some 5 bets. But that is about as high as it ever got. It took us a couple shoes to figure that out but once we did, bingo, we were on our way, no matter how strange that way seemed. It was strange but it worked every time. Sure, try our tools because they usually work. But in the end there is one rule that trumps everything - Let the shoe tell you what to do. Get your fingers burned a time or two. But then, play what works - even when that means quit with a small win instead of fighting city hall. Or even when it means stick it out no matter what.

Always remember, the same Baccarat shoe has never been dealt twice. And, Baccarat shoes don't know our rules - they just seem to sometimes. We must do what we must do - the shoe is boss - not us. Let them lead the way. The name of the game THAT trip was Don't Switch. Next trip it will be something else. Don't have hard rules. Be flexible - Even when that means quit. Sometimes quitting is our strongest weapon. And sometimes +20 is simply out of reach that day - but +6 is easy. Go with it!

[ztomsk]

I love your analogies, Ellis haha. Helps to get me in the right state of mind when playing.

I know you talked about this before in a different thread but I can't seem to find it...

About switching when you are losing or hit your stop loss. Last time I quit and didn't switch because I was ahead and wanted to take the win. But what do you recommend when you hit your stop loss? Do you change tables/take a break. Or pick up where you left off in the same shoe with a different system (with a 1 bet)?

By the way... is -8 always the general consensus for the stop loss? I know -12 has been talked about. I sort of like 12 when playing U1D2... But I guess it's like you said it depends on the conditions at the time. I suppose if you are riding it out then -12 is ok.

[ECD]

I don't like switching too much mid shoe...but I do switch.

F shoes I keep a really close eye on because they can turn to poo really quickly... I won't switch to S40 if the shoe is ZZ a bit because F still beats ZZ but if I see a series of 2's and 3's I'm going to have a good look at switching to OTB4L even if F is keeping my head above water coz the change for me mostly works out pretty good.

I'm finding that I switch from F more than any other shoe. If I've done the change sides bit ...missed out and then the change back misses as well I reassess...I've just lost 4 (F2) or even 5 (F3) bets in a row and don't have many more chances to get it right (if any). If the shoe is turning ZZ then I most likely won't be hitting a 4 or 5 bet in the first place (mostly) ...so I'm looking to see if OTB4L is likely to work. If not...I make the decision to either get the heck out of "Dodge" or risk one more bet on F or even 1 or 2 zero bets

Also...I don't rely on the OR count too much when assessing whether to switch from F as a few zzs can stuff up the count real quick even though I am still winning every second bet

If the shoe starts out a really good S40 shoe but moves into a not so good or even a losing shoe, I look at the reason... Mostly...a few long straight runs aren't so bad if I'm in the right Mode because I'm getting on the run earlier but short consecutive straight runs of 3 and 4 can be a real bummer and mostly OTB4L copes pretty well so I'll definitely be either switching to OTB4L or cutting my losses and leaving the shoe.

I'm much more reluctant to switch when I'm playing OTB4L ... so saying...If I keep hitting 3 bets or I've hit a 4th losing bet iar... I definitely have to reassess.

(If I'm playing U1D1M2 the occasional 3 bet can be a good thing because these shoes can turn into your biggest winners) But, in this situation (especially after a 4th losing bet iar ) I look at what I don't want to happen (what would leave me with the arse out of my pants) as I can't have many more bets available so I've got to get it right."I don't want a run of ZZ and I don't want a straight run of 4+' so I try to figure out the most likely possibility... If I stick with OTB4L (even if I am in ZZM2) I am going to have at least 2 more losing bets if the shoe is inclining towards ZZ(ARGHH not good) This is where I definitely let recent history be my guide...If the shoe has been moving towards ZZ ...I am definitely going to switch to S40 which gives me more chance to hit my next bet or the one after. The other option would be to switch modes to M1 to cover for the ZZ possibility but I need to be guided by Ellis on this one (any thoughts Ellis?)

If the reason I hit my 4th losing bet iar is a straight run of 5...I look at whole shoe history...If it has been bordering on F (but only if it's SS) I am going to look at switching. Part of my reasoning for switching is that in this case both S40 and F will put your next bet on the same side (the opposite to your next OTB4L bet) ...2 chances out of 3

If the shoe reverts immediately back to OTB4L then I lose my first bet in either S40 or F but at least my second bet is going to be on the same side as OTB4L which means that all 3 systems are saying to bet on the same side (which can't be a bad thing)

There are of course other variables that come into play...(which I won't talk about now) because all this thinking is making my head hurt...LOL

All my reasoning on this subject could be wrong...Unless Ellis agrees then I'm not advising anyone to play this way...I've only just been released from the "Naughty Corner" and I'm in no hurry to get back there (the view sucks and watching paint dry isn't my idea of a good time)

I'm thinking that I could be in line for a good "BUTT KICKING" from Ellis if I've got this wrong...DAMMIT!

Oz

On second thoughts...If I want my headache to go away...maybe I should forget about OR count and switching altogether...LOL

[ECD]

I love your analogies, Ellis haha. Helps to get me in the right state of mind when playing.

I know you talked about this before in a different thread but I can't seem to find it...

About switching when you are losing or hit your stop loss. Last time I quit and didn't switch because I was ahead and wanted to take the win. But what do you recommend when you hit your stop loss? Do you change tables/take a break. Or pick up where you left off in the same shoe with a different system (with a 1 bet)?

By the way... is -8 always the general consensus for the stop loss? I know -12 has been talked about. I sort of like 12 when playing U1D2... But I guess it's like you said it depends on the conditions at the time. I suppose if you are riding it out then -12 is ok.

If I'm playing U1D2 I never exceed the -8 stop/loss...but if I'm playing U1D1M2 I move to a -12 stop/loss because for me it seems to give me just that little longer to get it right and the advantages for me seem to outweigh the disadvantages. If I'm playing U1D1M2 in a shoe... I'm expecting that shoe to be a +30 or more so it seems worth the risk of another 4 units.

Of course...if Ellis disagrees...it's back to the "Naughty Corner" for Oz

[Guest]

If I'm playing U1D2 I never exceed the -8 stop/loss...but if I'm playing U1D1M2 I move to a -12 stop/loss because for me it seems to give me just that little longer to get it right and the advantages for me seem to outweigh the disadvantages. If I'm playing U1D1M2 in a shoe... I'm expecting that shoe to be a +30 or more so it seems worth the risk of another 4 units.

Of course...if Ellis disagrees...it's back to the "Naughty Corner" for Oz

No, I don't disagree at all. Of course the M2 (Mandatory 2 whether you win the 1 or not) is pretty steep for new players. But now is as good a time as any to start seeing the rewards awaiting those who have mastered NOR basics. Once you've got your hit rate above 50% there are all kinds of doors waiting to be opened. We don't talk about that much but we probably should.

Also, I think we need to look at switching as a necessary evil. We want to avoid it as much as possible but avoiding it altogether is an even bigger mistake.

The shoe doesn't know what it is SUPPOSED to do - yet sometimes it seems to.

Other times it seems to know what not to do and in spite of all our efforts, the shoe decides to take a different course. Here, we have to let the shoe tell us what to do and often it is saying switch in a very loud voice. But I have to be very careful here because some players switch whenever they lose 2 bets. You have to give the system you are playing a chance to win. The idea is to always note which system would be winning the most thus far. Often it is the system you are playing. But even in the best of the highest scoring shoes, you are going to lose two in a row now and then.

So if you were winning and lose 2 in a row - that's one thing.

But if you were losing and then lose two in a row - that's an entirely different thing.

The question always is: Which system would be doing the best thus far in this shoe? - Including but not limited to the last two plays. You can't always avoid 3 bets. They are a fact of life. I don't like the darn thing either but winning requires occassional 3 bets. You switch when you are getting too many of them - even though you might be winning most of them. The RIGHT system is the one that is winning its 1 and 2 bets the most often.

No, you can't wait until you hit your stop loss. It is too late to switch then. When you hit your stop loss you quit and switch tables.

[ECD]

Thanks for that insight Ellis.

I'm thinking that maybe we don't spend enough time explaining the right reasons and timing for switching (including sample shoes).

My feeling is that the majority of new (and not so new) players have as much difficulty in deciding if and when to switch as they originally did when deciphering Modes. (I'm including myself here and would be most appreciative for any more of your insights into "switching"

Every bit of info you give us on this subject can't do anything but improve our game.

You stated once that your aim is to have us all play as you do...Funny that...I have the same aim

Good health old fella:wink:

Oz

[Guest]

Thanks for that insight Ellis.

I'm thinking that maybe we don't spend enough time explaining the right reasons and timing for switching (including sample shoes).

My feeling is that the majority of new (and not so new) players have as much difficulty in deciding if and when to switch as they originally did when deciphering Modes. (I'm including myself here and would be most appreciative for any more of your insights into "switching"

Every bit of info you give us on this subject can't do anything but improve our game.

You stated once that your aim is to have us all play as you do...Funny that...I have the same aim

Good health old fella:wink:

Oz

I was giving this very thing much thought last night. When you think hard about it, the reasons for starting with a certain system are the same reasons we might want to switch later on.

There is a very simple but very accurate way of looking at this that beginners might really like having to do with events and which events which systems like and dislike.

But before a beginner can determine what a shoe is high or low in, he must know what is normal (random).

Normally:

1's occur once every 4 plays

2s occur once every 8 plays

3s occur once every 16 plays

4s occur once every 32 pays

5s occur once every 64 plays and

6s occur once every 128 plays and so forth

We call that The 50% rule.

Got it so far? Here is a simple way to use it:

High 1's = S40

High 2s and 3s = OTB4L

High 4 or mores = F

Strong Side =F

That's it! That is the whole secret. Now, no matter how you look at it, OR count, OT count, SAP or whatever, it all boils down to that one simple rule. Everthing else eventually arrives at that same simple conclusion. So why bother with anything else esp when you are first starting out. Keep life simple.

Sure, I could also tell you what each system dislikes but how does that really help you???

Once you know which system to play, Mode is determined by the 3rd bet rule which is as simple as pie.

Just one more thing:

Math dictates that whatever a shoe is high in, it must be equally low in something else.

That rules out the spectre of a shoe being high in everything - simply can't happen.

So the simple rule above ALWAYS prevails

What if a shoe is dead on normal for every event?

Simple: Change tables because you have no advantage. Fortunately, that is rare.

That is as simple as it can be put.

Nearly all shoes favor something - Go for it!

Forget all this other crap for now - it will just confuse you. And it all arrives at the same system anyway.

[ECD]

I was giving this very thing much thought last night. When you think hard about it, the reasons for starting with a certain system are the same reasons we might want to switch later on.

There is a very simple but very accurate way of looking at this that beginners might really like having to do with events and which events which systems like and dislike.

But before a beginner can determine what a shoe is high or low in, he must know what is normal (random).

Normally:

1's occur once every 4 plays

2s occur once every 8 plays

3s occur once every 16 plays

4s occur once every 32 pays

5s occur once every 64 plays and

6s occur once every 128 plays and so forth

We call that The 50% rule.

Got it so far? Here is a simple way to use it:

High 1's = S40

High 2s and 3s = OTB4L

High 4 or mores = F

Strong Side =F

That's it! That is the whole secret. Now, no matter how you look at it, OR count, OT count, SAP or whatever, it all boils down to that one simple rule. Everthing else eventually arrives at that same simple conclusion. So why bother with anything else esp when you are first starting out. Keep life simple.

Sure, I could also tell you what each system dislikes but how does that really help you???

Once you know which system to play, Mode is determined by the 3rd bet rule which is as simple as pie.

Just one more thing:

Math dictates that whatever a shoe is high in, it must be equally low in something else.

That rules out the spectre of a shoe being high in everything - simply can't happen.

So the simple rule above ALWAYS prevails

What if a shoe is dead on normal for every event?

Simple: Change tables because you have no advantage. Fortunately, that is rare.

That is as simple as it can be put.

Nearly all shoes favor something - Go for it!

Forget all this other crap for now - it will just confuse you. And it all arrives at the same system anyway.

My headache just returned...LOL

Thanks for that Ellis...Sometimes it helps to have what should be already obvious...put in plain simple English.

I suspect that I am guilty of making NOR much more complicated than it needs to be

[ztomsk]

If I'm playing U1D2 I never exceed the -8 stop/loss...

Now that I have the technical play down I no longer have questions about that, but now am flooded with questions about money management which I didn't realize before since I was focused on learning how to play the ins and outs of Nor+. It is just as important if not more than the plays themselves.

What if you qualify a table as OTBL and you sit down and immediately lose 6 units to a 5iar. The next bet is 4 units OTR. But that would take you to -10 units if you lost taking you past the -8 stop loss. Wouldn't you have to just sort of make the bet and go for it?

I've also noticed since I implied the proper stop win/loss/capture points I don't even get the chance to use the 5 or 6 unit bets (I know - idealy you don't want to have to even get that far). Is this right?

Before I tightened up stop win/loss/capture points I was hitting the occasional 5 and 6 unit bets. And a lot of times it helped keep me in the game and turn it around for a +20. I'm finding it hard to get past +10 without those bets. But I admit shamefully I exceeded the stop loss before and paid the price as well.

[ECD]

Now that I have the technical play down I no longer have questions about that, but now am flooded with questions about money management which I didn't realize before since I was focused on learning how to play the ins and outs of Nor+. It is just as important if not more than the plays themselves.

What if you qualify a table as OTBL and you sit down and immediately lose 6 units to a 5iar. The next bet is 4 units OTR. But that would take you to -10 units if you lost taking you past the -8 stop loss. Wouldn't you have to just sort of make the bet and go for it?

I've also noticed since I implied the proper stop win/loss/capture points I don't even get the chance to use the 5 or 6 unit bets (I know - idealy you don't want to have to even get that far). Is this right?

Before I tightened up stop win/loss/capture points I was hitting the occasional 5 and 6 unit bets. And a lot of times it helped keep me in the game and turn it around for a +20. I'm finding it hard to get past +10 without those bets. But I admit shamefully I exceeded the stop loss before and paid the price as well.

Are you forgetting the first rule when starting to bet" ALWAYS FLAT BET SINGLE UNITS UNTIL YOUR FIRST WIN"

In that case ...you are at -4 after your fourth bet and then you decide whether to continue the shoe or not...4 losing bets in a row isn't going to hurt that much if you have only lost the 4 units considering your winning average.

Normally...I will risk another single unit bet and if that loses...I'm outta there. If it wins...I'm back to -3 and then I start my progression with at least 2 more losing bets required before my next bet would take me over my STOP/LOSS . That's one win from 7 bets for a total of -6 so you probably don't want to hang around anyway.

The problem really occurs when you win your first bet of a single unit and then the shoe turns. Then you are looking at your fourth bet taking you to -9. I guess it's really up to you. But I do suggest that if you make yourself a rule "-9 is your STOP/LOSS at the beginning of a new shoe"...then stick to it. But once you are in the shoe ...you probably don't want to be getting too close to your STOP/LOSS anyway.

Ellis suggests that once you hit +6 in your normal U1D2 progression that you don't really want to get yourself into a minus situation anyway. You've done the hard work ...Don't give the casino their money back and then yours as well.

If I'm playing U1D1M2 then I play differently...I have my STOP/LOSS set at -12 because the risk for me is worth it and sometimes I do sail close to the wind but the shoe turns into a good winner. I try not to "SWITCH" too often...but U1D1M2 with my revised (-12) STOP/LOSS gives me the chance to turn the shoe around.

Just a note on U1D1M2...My hit rate Flat betting is over 13% which gives me the confidence to use the more aggressive betting strategies. "U1D2M2 or U1D1M2"

[ztomsk]

Are you forgetting the first rule when starting to bet" ALWAYS FLAT BET SINGLE UNITS UNTIL YOUR FIRST WIN"

In that case ...you are at -4 after your fourth bet and then you decide whether to continue the shoe or not...4 losing bets in a row isn't going to hurt that much if you have only lost the 4 units considering your winning average.

Normally...I will risk another single unit bet and if that loses...I'm outta there. If it wins...I'm back to -3 and then I start my progression with at least 2 more losing bets required before my next bet would take me over my STOP/LOSS . That's one win from 7 bets for a total of -6 so you probably don't want to hang around anyway.

The problem really occurs when you win your first bet of a single unit and then the shoe turns. Then you are looking at your fourth bet taking you to -9. I guess it's really up to you. But I do suggest that if you make yourself a rule "-9 is your STOP/LOSS at the beginning of a new shoe"...then stick to it. But once you are in the shoe ...you probably don't want to be getting too close to your STOP/LOSS anyway.

Ellis suggests that once you hit +6 in your normal U1D2 progression that you don't really want to get yourself into a minus situation anyway. You've done the hard work ...Don't give the casino their money back and then yours as well.

If I'm playing U1D1M2 then I play differently...I have my STOP/LOSS set at -12 because the risk for me is worth it and sometimes I do sail close to the wind but the shoe turns into a good winner. I try not to "SWITCH" too often...but U1D1M2 with my revised (-12) STOP/LOSS gives me the chance to turn the shoe around.

Just a note on U1D1M2...My hit rate Flat betting is over 13% which gives me the confidence to use the more aggressive betting strategies. "U1D2M2 or U1D1M2"

Awesome - thanks for the advice. That all sounds like good stuff. I do flat bet until my first win... in the shoe start example to losing to a 5iar, don't we win the very first bet on the repeat (2nd hand of the shoe). Right?

[Guest]

Just a note on U1D1M2...My hit rate Flat betting is over 13% which gives me the confidence to use the more aggressive betting strategies. "U1D2M2 or U1D1M2"

Hmmm, the rest of your post was right on the money Oz but you might want to rethink a 13% hit rate. I watch everything you know. Did you mean perhaps that you win 13 more than you lose??? That would be a 56.5% hit rate which is excellent, BTW.

[ChiefAurelius]

Forgive the maths-dummy question, what's the correct calculation for Hit Rate/PA?

Thanks

Chief

[ECD]

Hmmm, the rest of your post was right on the money Oz but you might want to rethink a 13% hit rate. I watch everything you know. Did you mean perhaps that you win 13 more than you lose??? That would be a 56.5% hit rate which is excellent, BTW.

I have no idea how to calculate it TBH... I meant to say that averaged over a substantial number of bets (500 +) I would have been up 13 for every 100 bets made if I had flat bet single units. I don't flat bet...It was just my way of checking my hit rate with NOR+ .

I calculated by the 100 because of the huge difference between online shoes and Sydney Casino shoes...The length of the shoe can vary by 20 or more.

It's extremely rare for a live dealer online shoe to hit 60 (they seem to average in the very low 50s )

What I'm trying to say in my usual convoluted way is that on average...for every 100 bets I had a hit rate of 56.5 wins against 43.5 losses (near as matters) I better let you work it out Ellis...My headache is returning...LOL

DUH...Now I see...56.5 wins = 56.5%...I blame my mother...I'm sure that she dropped me on my head as a baby

BTW: Had a really different (for me ) type of night at the Sydney Casino 2 nights ago. On my previous visits...OTB4L shoes were in abundance...but this was totally different...Strong F (I mean really strong SS) shoes and strong S40 shoes were everywhere. I had a great night...hit rate was even better than normal...but it sure rammed home the necessity of being able to suss out the 3 different type of shoes...and also being ready to switch part way.

[ECD]

Awesome - thanks for the advice. That all sounds like good stuff. I do flat bet until my first win... in the shoe start example to losing to a 5iar, don't we win the very first bet on the repeat (2nd hand of the shoe). Right?

Right on...but I was assuming from your post that you didn't start betting until the third hand of the 5iar...

[Guest]

Forgive the maths-dummy question, what's the correct calculation for Hit Rate/PA?

Thanks

Chief

OK, lets say you bet a total of 60 times in 61 plays and win 35 of those bets. Your hit rate is 60/60+35 or 60/95 or 63.158%.

Just be sure to go by your actual total # of bets rather than the play #.

While we are at it, PA or Player Advantage is units won / units bet. Same as ROI or Return on Investment.

We like to see a hit rate in the upper 50s and a double digit PA (10% +).

In comparison the BJ card counting world used to brag about a 0.5% PA. That was what all that memorization and study and movies were about. Hell, WE tip more than that on a half way good day. But now they admit that they can't even hit that meager goal. That makes card counting a complete waste of time and effort - and also a complete scam aimed at folks who don't have a clue about math! Plus, it gives you a headache to boot.

They readily admit that I consistently beat them in BJ since they've watched me do it so often. But, they say I do it by cheating. Ha, as if there were some way to cheat in BJ.

[Guest]

I have no idea how to calculate it TBH... I meant to say that averaged over a substantial number of bets (500 +) I would have been up 13 for every 100 bets made if I had flat bet single units. I don't flat bet...It was just my way of checking my hit rate with NOR+ .

I calculated by the 100 because of the huge difference between online shoes and Sydney Casino shoes...The length of the shoe can vary by 20 or more.

It's extremely rare for a live dealer online shoe to hit 60 (they seem to average in the very low 50s )

What I'm trying to say in my usual convoluted way is that on average...for every 100 bets I had a hit rate of 56.5 wins against 43.5 losses (near as matters) I better let you work it out Ellis...My headache is returning...LOL

DUH...Now I see...56.5 wins = 56.5%...I blame my mother...I'm sure that she dropped me on my head as a baby

BTW: Had a really different (for me ) type of night at the Sydney Casino 2 nights ago. On my previous visits...OTB4L shoes were in abundance...but this was totally different...Strong F (I mean really strong SS) shoes and strong S40 shoes were everywhere. I had a great night...hit rate was even better than normal...but it sure rammed home the necessity of being able to suss out the 3 different type of shoes...and also being ready to switch part way.

Well, now you know how to do the hit rate calculation. Because of progressions we usually win at a 50% hit rate or better. For instance, take U1D2. We lose a 1,2,3 then win a 4,2. We are even in spite of the fact that we only won 2 out of 5 bets. But our flat bet mathematician is down big time with our same hit rate.

Mathematicians say the same thing in BJ - that you can't bet progressions. They say this in spite of the fact that they agree that perfect Basic Strategy has only a 43% hit rate. Idiots, we are surrounded by idiots!

It is amazing to me how you can keep going to the same casino and keep seeing the same shoe type. But then you go one night and everything has totally changed. Mathematicians would have us believe that this is some sort of freak of nature. They think it silly of us to believe that the casino had anything to do with it. As if casinos were manned by the most upstanding people in the world. They have no clue. It is not about math. It is about anti-math. It is about casino orchestration. How can players consistently lose at a rate far greater than the game odds. They keep avoiding that question while refusing to come out of their own little make believe world.

[ECD]

OK, lets say you bet a total of 60 times in 61 plays and win 35 of those bets. Your hit rate is 60/60+35 or 60/95 or 63.158%.

Hi Ellis, I am not following the math here. If you win 35 of 60 bets, isn't the hit rate 58.33%? The formula you provide ( # of bets / [# of bets + # winning bets] ) gives non-sensical answers. For example, winning 50 of 60 bets (incredibly strong result) is only 54% under the formula. Winning 10 of 60 bets is 85% with the formula.

[Guest]

Whoops, you are correct way2fast and good hearing from you. The formula should be:

# of bets won / total bets made.

I added up to total bets twice. I'll go back and correct my original post. Thanks for noticing that!

[CdnChamer]

Switching can be challenging and takes a good eye to recognize when to act correctly. With practice I have switched up to 3 x's in a shoe but very rarely done so. Last night I hit the shoe from F2 Heaven,,,, stated out OTB4L. And after quick -4 OR count I switched to F2 on next run. Get this. .... 18 Bank in a row! I won every one of them!

Thanks to MOR+ strategy

CC

[Guest]

Switching can be challenging and takes a good eye to recognize when to act correctly. With practice I have switched up to 3 x's in a shoe but very rarely done so. Last night I hit the shoe from F2 Heaven,,,, stated out OTB4L. And after quick -4 OR count I switched to F2 on next run. Get this. .... 18 Bank in a row! I won every one of them!

Thanks to MOR+ strategy

CC

Yep, shit happens in this strange game! And NOR usually puts you on it when it does.