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BAC Exploitation


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Ellis just revealed one of the greatest secrets to winning lots of BAC shoes, and he referred to it as EXPLOITING the bias/biases the shoe is giving us.

Lots of people know this is how I play all the time, as it really is simply the "behind the scenes" roadmap to playing what the shoe is most currently demonstrating as a bias.

Here is my sample take on EXPLOITATION,AND HOW TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT, especially when a sequence of events shows a wide disparity from what would be perceived as normal over a long period of time.(50/50 split)

From the beginning of the shoe, keep track of these six variables after every hand is played:

P

B

O

R

OTBL

TBL

Lets just say hand # 1 results in a player decision. Here is the "score" to record after that play:

P I

B

O

R

OTBL

TBL

Lets just say next hand also a player decision...here is the "score":

P II

B

O

R I

OTBL

TBL

Next, lets say hand #3 results in a banker decision...here is the new score:

P II

B I

O I

R I

OTBL I

TBL

Moving along, lets say we have a "run of B" decisions, resulting in this "score" after the 7th hand, and since one ( or more ) of the 6 variables have now reached a total of 5, I add up the 6 columns and place a numerical value of its summation out to the right of the column, as follows:

P25

P II 2

B IIIII 5

O I 1

R IIIII 5

OTBL II 2

TBL III 3

So you can see the Bank disparity is 5/2 over the Player, and the Repeat disparity is 5/1 over the Opposites.( OTBL/TBL disparity is negligible, at 2/3)

Perfect example of EXPLOITATION, and which do you think would be my first choice for my next bet? Of course, bet for another REPEAT,asthis is the highest disparity.

Now , lets fast forward to where the shoe from the beginning looks like this:

P2511113

Now , our cumulative totals would look like this:

P7

B7

O6

R7

OTBL4

TBL8

So,see the shift? Now, TBL/OTBL disparity is 8/4... so, using the EXPLOITATION guidelines, we should be leaning towards TBL bets...

And moving along,

Lets say we get to this score:

P2511113141

B1

The 6 variables now look like this:

P12

B9

O10

R10

OTBL7

TBL12

Notice where the exploit opportunities are? Well, both TBL and P are the largest, and looks like Player is our best bet for hand #22 ( it is both a TBL and a P Bet...our two greatest biases!)

I think you get the picture...

1) This does NOT replace NOR or NOR+ ... Ellis asked for someone to start a thread on EXPLOITATION, and since I play it all the time I felt qualified to do so.

2) Not every shoe will demonstrate "clearly identifiable" EXPLOITATION opportunities, but once you get playing a lot, you will see how these shoes stand out!

Ellis can take it from here...he is, after all,

THE MAN WITH THE GOLDEN BACCARAT GUN.

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P.S.

To all of you, all over the world, BACCARAT game holds many, many similarities, as expressed in metaphors, in one of our c.l.a.s.s.i.c. AMERICAN MOVIES...TheWizardOfOZ

If you watch it, you will know you have played many, many times with The Tin Man, The Lion, The Scare Crow, The Wicked Witch and the Good Witch right at your table...even Toto( the Dog) earns a place at the Bac table.

You will see how Dorothy goes "all -in" near the end of the movie, and best of all, you will see Ellis behind-the-curtain, directing all of us in heavy traffic, to "see clearly" our friends and enemies at the casino, and just knowing we have an OZ on our side should give you all tremendous confidence, and protect your bankroll from harm

( and those pesky monkey-things? HA! they're just the rest of the players at the table...)

Enjoy the movie!

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Most shoes and tables are not exploitable. We try to grind out our +10 with NOR or our +20 with NOR+.

But a surprising number ARE exploitable - just as kachatz says. And as Donald points out, you need to make sure the bias you are playing maintains itself. What are the other disparities doing? One just might be taking over.

So, I think a good place to start is a discussion of what constitutes an exploitable shoe or table???

Let's take tables first because they are the greatest source of exploitable shoes and usually caused by the shuffle and/or the card prep.

Any table that is maintaining the same bias shoe after shoe, you are watching a table bias. Those are the best because they are the most dependable. They may last for several shoes and they may last several days. Ann and I had a big bac table - new cards every shoe at Foxwood stay Player favorable for 9 days straight. Might have been longer but we had to leave for a seminar in Vegas. Every shoe we played (about 34) was Player favorable by 5 to 10 more Ps than Bs. The odds of that are about the same as flipping 34 tails in a row - completely impossible. But there it was. No, the casino was certainly not doing this on purpose. They were losing their shirts because soon all 14 players were betting Player only which gives the casino no commission, not to mention the casino was losing their shirt. This was an accident somehow caused by the conflagration of the pit crew, the card prep (every shoe) and the shuffle. The casino was just as awed by this as we were. You don't question these things. You just play them. Nobody on either side of the table knows how to make a table Player biased. Opposite or Repeat biased, yes, but not Player biased. The odds of the game supposedly make all tables slightly Bank biased. But how can that possibly help you if you can get 10 or 20 Player shoes in a row. These Bank only players that you often see are just an accident looking for a place to happen. It denotes a total lack of experience. You go by what IS happening - not by what is SUPPOSED to be happening.

Gold Strike Tunica: Every first shoe was OTB4L favorable for 3 years straight. That's what standard card preps can do. It is always good to know what shoe type the standard card prep produces, if any, at the casino you are playing. Sometimes this knowledge can start you off winning every day. I never lost a first shoe or even a second shoe at Gold Strike for 3 years and with 3 tables, that is a LOT of first or second shoes.

It was the same way EVERY shoe at the Hollywood PA casino at their one ten player midi bac new cards every shoe table - until they finally caught on and removed the table. Bastards!

I already mentioned the table at Gold Coast Vegas that stayed choppy for 20 shoes in a row and those were only the shoes that I happened to play. It might have been 50 shoes in a row. Each day I got there I asked the players: "Is it still choppy?" "Yep!"

Does everyone know what a card prep is vs a shuffle? The card prep is what they do with new cards once out of the 8 boxes. It involves a wash. Then they do the standard shuffle each shoe.

We get so involved with NOR that we forget to talk about the obvious. But sometimes we need to forget systems and just bet what is happening.

So much for tables: What about shoes out of the blue. I think the magic number is about 4. Anytime any of the 3 counts (OvR; OvT; PvB get up to 4 either + or - in the first col (20 plays), we need to be thinking Exploit. Of course the sooner a count hits 4 the better. You might test the water with U1D2 but if the count keeps going, the sooner you upgrade to U1D1m2, the better.

From there, you don't even need to keep watching your count. Your bet sizes do that for you. If your bets stay below 6 and you keep getting back to 1, keep on trucking. But DON'T play to the end. If you win a 1 bet in the last column, think about quitting, especially if you haven't been winning a lot of 1 bets lately. But when you win a second 1 bet in the 4th col. QUIT!

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K.,

interesting post.

just a question: when you get the disparity and start betting for it, how long your attack will go on?

IE, till LL, till a stated stop loss or wint, etc...

thanks

Hey,Wolfy Lover...

Stop-loss/stop-win just the same as on NOR/NOR+

Ellis got " down to the bone" by exposing the 6 THINGS EVERY REALLY GOOD BAC-PLAYER SHOULD KNOW.( anyone paid attention, now you know!)

He asked for someone to start a thread about Baxploitation ( BAC EXPLOITATION)

I did it, no way hoping/no way meaning to usurp the power of NOR

( Its all real, actual shoe results from Golden Nugget Biloxi, 9/10/2013 3rd shoe of the day...and, its all real how to identify/exploit the biggest disparities)...I have many, many cards you would see similar results...and many, many you would not! ( Just like all the systems, huh??)

The 6 things can happen any hand dealt? ( after the 2ndhand of the shoe...),they are 4REAL...not me making them up...

VERY, VERY POWERFUL TOOL IF YOU KNOW HOW TO USE IT...(ECD is the master, HE Knows....)

Its BAC-101, just who teaches it? HA!

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There are two halves in a shoe. First Half Hands 1-36. Second Half Hands 37-72. Check if the disparity increases or decreases in the second half.

I have hundreds of shoes played exactly as I described in my post.

Sometimes, the disparity will start showing up in the beginning of the shoe, and keep getting stronger as the shoe progresses.

Sometimes, the disparity will not " reveal itself" until the shoe is well underway.

Sometimes, the disparity will start on say P/B, then switch to O/R or OTBL/TBL, and by the end of the shoe P/B are pretty even ( like 37/35)

Sometimes it will last for 3 or 4 shoes played consecutively!

Think of it this way:

A) The tote board shows the P/B " count"

B) NOR teaches you to keep an O/R "count"

C) Add the OTBL/TBL " count", and right there in plain daylight, you have all you need to know to point out any EXPLOITABLE components of bet selection.

I play this in concert with NOR all the time, and anyone who has ever seen me play knows it. ( and knows IT WORKS, just as Ellis pointed out in the Practice shoe thread)

I just never knew what to call it...

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Hi Kachatz,

How many hands will you see before starting to bet in a new shoe? Or do you need to have a 2 points difference between the 6 counts?

This is refreshing and it can help improve my game more!

Btw i also like your Wizard of Oz story LOL.

Witchy

Yeah, maybe he's seen one too many tornados!

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Hi Kachatz,

How many hands will you see before starting to bet in a new shoe? Or do you need to have a 2 points difference between the 6 counts?

This is refreshing and it can help improve my game more!

Btw i also like your Wizard of Oz story LOL.

Witchy

Hey, you must be the Good Witch Glenda...

I think Ellis and general Forum discussions have provided many good examples of how/ when to start placing actual wagers in a shoe...

Since I am playing this in concert with NOR, I generally wait a few hands before starting to bet...pretty much every shoe will " look like" S40, OTBL or F-type within the first couple of hands...

As stated earlier, by keeping these counts for the 6 variables, I believe they are more useful to me as a guideline for when the shoe is " switching" from one bias to the next, so I may deviate off of the NOR method I have been using more confidently...

Try it with one of your actual shoes, picked at random

See if it helps you " spot" where the EXPLOIT opportunities are, and might it have helped you improve your score? Like Ellis said, few shoes are EXPLOITATION materiel from start to finish.

But, if you pay close attention to the shifting numerical disparity values P/B , O/R and OTBL/TBL I am confident you will " notice" that virtually all shoes have at least one part of the shoe where a shift is taking place, and you will soon see how to capitalize on that .

Really not much extra work at all!

The P/B count is on the tote Board...

You are already noting the O/R count movement.

Just add OTBL/ TBL count to your card, and I really think you' ll be surprised how much using all 3 " disparities" will help you with making best possible decisions to identify particular bets to EXPLOIT, and by default, this helps me with managing my bankroll.

After practicing a bit, you'll be surprised how easy it is to look back 10-15-20 decisions to see if any shifts are taking place, and decide whether to react or not to them...

Hope this helps.

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Sakana, back to your notation re the huge PA difference between U1D1m2 and U1D2, 34% vs 7%.

When you play the shoe below as I did with U1D1m2 you score +49 and your PA is 31% - pretty close to what our tests showed.

But you do quite well with U1D2 also scoring +30 with a 25% PA.

So, you were right. Our test PAs were too far apart.

Why? It has to do withb the size of the highest bet.

When we tested we played 10,000 shoes continuous as if one long shoe. In so doing, our highest bet was about 30 units - still much lower than a table max - usually 100 $100 units.

But recognize that to lose a 30 bet we had to lose every bet on the way to 30. So, at that point we are down a whole lot. But from there U1D2 is going down in increments of 2 so it can get all the way back to a 1 bet and still be down a country mile.

Not so with U1D1: It can't get back to a 1 bet W/O creating a huge win for the pyramid. It automatically wins 29 units getting back to 2 but it also wins one unit for every bet lost which is likely hundreds of units in addition to the automatic 29 units.

Ha, I realize that it sounds like I'm saying that the more bets you lose the more money you win. And, in fact, that is exactly what I'm saying as long as you eventually get back to a winning 2 bet.

So we are seeing the huge PA disparity only because our highest bet was so darn high over 10,000 shoes. But such high bets only occur in testing where we are betting the same way every shoe regardless of the nature (bias) of the shoe.

In the shoe below, either way, our highest bet was only 5. Therefore the disparity was much closer.

So your inference is correct. In actual play, U1D1m2 does not have nearly the advantage that our test indicated.

+49 one way, +30 the less risky way.

Therefore, conservative players may decide that U1D1m2 is too risky given that it only makes about 2/5ths more units or about 40%.

On the other hand, as we go, I'll shoe you some neat tricks of the trade that greatly reduce the risk of U1D1m2.

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Hey, you must be the Good Witch Glenda...

I think Ellis and general Forum discussions have provided many good examples of how/ when to start placing actual wagers in a shoe...

Since I am playing this in concert with NOR, I generally wait a few hands before starting to bet...pretty much every shoe will " look like" S40, OTBL or F-type within the first couple of hands...

As stated earlier, by keeping these counts for the 6 variables, I believe they are more useful to me as a guideline for when the shoe is " switching" from one bias to the next, so I may deviate off of the NOR method I have been using more confidently...

Try it with one of your actual shoes, picked at random

See if it helps you " spot" where the EXPLOIT opportunities are, and might it have helped you improve your score? Like Ellis said, few shoes are EXPLOITATION materiel from start to finish.

But, if you pay close attention to the shifting numerical disparity values P/B , O/R and OTBL/TBL I am confident you will " notice" that virtually all shoes have at least one part of the shoe where a shift is taking place, and you will soon see how to capitalize on that .

Really not much extra work at all!

The P/B count is on the tote Board...

You are already noting the O/R count movement.

Just add OTBL/ TBL count to your card, and I really think you' ll be surprised how much using all 3 " disparities" will help you with making best possible decisions to identify particular bets to EXPLOIT, and by default, this helps me with managing my bankroll.

After practicing a bit, you'll be surprised how easy it is to look back 10-15-20 decisions to see if any shifts are taking place, and decide whether to react or not to them...

Hope this helps.

Thanks Kachatz for your clear explanation. Zap zap!!!

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Here is a little example of what I'm talking about re U1D1m2.

An example of how and why this progression, by itself, wins big time.

Mathematicians say there is no value to progressions.

I say Mathematicians make horrible Baccarat players.

Opposites are dead equal to Repeats in the long run.

Therefore the average OR count in the history of Baccarat is 0.

All the shoes you will ever play put together the average OR is 0.

Take this short example and forget stop losses for this experiment.

P 112712111

The ending OR count is 0.

If you flat bet either opposites or repeats your score is 0 in both cases.

If you bet Repeats U1D1m2, your score is 0

So far the Mathematicians are right!

BUT, if you bet Opposites U1D1m2

your score should be 0 according to the Mathematicians because

"progressions have no value"

BUT, your score isn't 0. It is +6! And you still haven't even finished

your bet pyramid with a winning 2 bet. Not even a winning 3 bet yet.

Furthermore, if you net bet opposites vs repeats U1D1m2

since you didn't know which to bet

Your score Should be 0 according to the Mathematicians

But it isn't. It is +6

Your PA should be 0 according to the mathematicians.

But it isn't. It is an impossible +17.64%!

Yes, this directly compares to the 0.5% PA card counters strive to attain

Therein is the value of the U1D1m2 progression.

The average OR is 0 but U1D1m2 beats a 0 OR.

Regardless whether you bet Opposites or Repeats

or net bet the two.

It does exactly what Mathematicians say is impossible - it wins!

Get it?

I rest my case.

BTW, as a retired Math Professor I think I have earned the right

to say that Mathematicians are prone to make statements

as if they were Mathematical laws rather than what they really

are - generalizations.

They should be required to prove what they say using practical examples

as I do. Otherwise, they can do more harm than good.

Casinos CAN be beat by those who know how

regardless of what Mathematicians profess.

That is how they ALL, to a man, got the shell game wrong.

They used mathematical generalizations instead of Mathematical Fact.

Do you guys know the shell game?

I have conducted hundreds of BJ seminars all over the world.

I opened every seminar with the shell game.

The point of the demonstration was to show that mathematics is not always what it seems.

The casino has hidden agendas which completely change the odds of the game to THEIR favor.

The true odds of the game are not what they seem but you can beat the game by

understanding the true mathematics of it and taking advantage of the true mathematics.

All BJ books are wrong!

All card counting books are wrong!

All internet card counting forums are wrong!

They are all victims of hidden agenda mathematics.

I put 3 cups upside down on the podium.

One has a $100 bill under it.

I ask a member of the audience to select cup 1, 2 or 3.

Let's say they select cup #1.

I turn over cup #3 showing it is empty and ask if they

want to change their mind.

Should they?

...to be continued...

Please don't reply if you already know this -

Let's have some fun with those who don't.

BTW, do you know the movie "21"?

They thought so much of my little starting demonstration

that they started their movie with it!

That took a big dose of Hollywood license -

The mathematics of the shell game has absolutely nothing to do

with the mathematics of card counting. But they didn't let that

bother them any.

No, they didn't pay me any royalties - bastards!

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Dear Ellis, Further to your shell game example, it would appear from my engineering background perspective, that removing one of the cups would still give you a 50-50 probability chance. Would this not be the case? Ellis, please advise.

Kindest Regards, John

Forget engineering. Statistics are clear that by changing your choice you have a 66.7% chance of being correct.

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Here is a perfect example of how/ why at some point many shoes have a " point" at which EXPLOITATION shows itself...

Ironically, I am in Paradise Island , Bahamas at the Atlantis Casino, and played this shoe today....Paradise Island / Nassau Bahamas being the centrifuge of one of Ellis' greatest exploit stories of all time, concerning TEAM PLAY BLACKJACK..

Here is today's BAC shoe, played start to finish ( ignoring ties)

P231213251

P311111411321

B223512212

P2312313

Reminder:

Exploits come from the comparison of Disparity of 3 elements:

P vs B

O vs R

OTBL vs TBL

Note that last 1/3 of shoe where OTBL " ran away" from TBL....all the while P/B and O/R " disparities rocked gently back-and-forth in the Bahamas breeze...

Nothing but flat betting, this is where Jerry Maguire would start his SHOW ME THE MONEY exaltations.

( Is Life " better in the Bahamas"?)

Probably not, but at least for today...

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Forget engineering. Statistics are clear that by changing your choice you have a 66.7% chance of being correct.

Hmmm, why do you say that way2fast? There are 2 cups left. One is right and one is wrong. So why aren't your odds 50/50

whether you change your mind or not?

Anybody?

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Here is a perfect example of how/ why at some point many shoes have a " point" at which EXPLOITATION shows itself...

Ironically, I am in Paradise Island , Bahamas at the Atlantis Casino, and played this shoe today....Paradise Island / Nassau Bahamas being the centrifuge of one of Ellis' greatest exploit stories of all time, concerning TEAM PLAY BLACKJACK..

Here is today's BAC shoe, played start to finish ( ignoring ties)

P231213251

P311111411321

B223512212

P2312313

Reminder:

Exploits come from the comparison of Disparity of 3 elements:

P vs B

O vs R

OTBL vs TBL

Note that last 1/3 of shoe where OTBL " ran away" from TBL....all the while P/B and O/R " disparities rocked gently back-and-forth in the Bahamas breeze...

Nothing but flat betting, this is where Jerry Maguire would start his SHOW ME THE MONEY exaltations.

( Is Life " better in the Bahamas"?)

Probably not, but at least for today...

Brings back fond memories. I've spent a LOT of time in that casino!

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Hmmm, why do you say that way2fast? There are 2 cups left. One is right and one is wrong. So why aren't your odds 50/50

whether you change your mind or not?

Anybody?

Hi Ellis, of course you KNOW this already. When you intially select one of the shells you have a 1 in 3 chance of picking the winner. I think everyone can see the odds start at 33%. The important thing here is that AFTER you made that selection, you are told which of the other two shells is not a winner. So the winner is either the one you picked or the the other remaining shell -- most everyone assumes then that is is a 50/50 choice. But you cannot ignor the facts that have been presented to you (JUST LIKE OBSERVING WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS AT THE BAC TABLE). If you switch to the other shell you have a 2/3 chance of winning. If you stick with your intial decision (AND IGNOR WHAT IS HAPPENING IN FRONT OF YOU) then you only have your original 1/3 chance of winning.

The best way to understand this is to think about your chances of loosing. Switching only results in a loss when your original pick was correct. As that only happens 1/3 of the time, then switching will be the better choice 2/3 of the time.

This is a famous statistics simulation called Monty Hall, named after the game show where they played the same con-game with the three curtains. Street hustlers have made a fortune off the unsuspecting public who do not understand how "real world" mathematics work.

Ellis often makes fun of the mathematicians. I work closely with MANY mathemeticians, PHDs and quants of various backgrounds. It is a fact they are the WORST gamblers ever. They assume every decision must follow the law of math, and they are so busy trying to convince everyone at the table that they understand the game better than anyone else, that they completely miss what is actually occuring in front of them. I saw it again last Friday at Aria where a player at my table kept telling his two companions how you cannot beat this game and following the trends doesn't work. He was an engineer with a math PHD. They got clobbered while I cruised to an easy 23 unit win on a perfect TBL table. As I colored up, I'm pretty sure I heard him utter something about "luck." Damn, I love this game!

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Hi Ellis, of course you KNOW this already. When you intially select one of the shells you have a 1 in 3 chance

of picking the winner. I think everyone can see the odds start at 33%. The important thing here is that AFTER you made that selection,

you are told which of the other two shells is not a winner. So the winner is either the one you picked or the the other remaining shell

-- most everyone assumes then that is is a 50/50 choice. But you cannot ignor the facts that have been presented to you (JUST LIKE OBSERVING WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS AT THE BAC TABLE). If you switch to the other shell you have a 2/3 chance of winning. If you stick with your intial decision (AND IGNOR WHAT IS HAPPENING IN FRONT OF YOU) then you only have your original 1/3 chance of winning.

The best way to understand this is to think about your chances of loosing. Switching only results in a loss when your original pick was correct. As that only happens 1/3 of the time, then switching will be the better choice 2/3 of the time.

This is a famous statistics simulation called Monty Hall, named after the game show where they played the same con-game with the three curtains. Street hustlers have made a fortune off the unsuspecting public who do not understand how "real world" mathematics work.

Ellis often makes fun of the mathematicians. I work closely with MANY mathemeticians, PHDs and quants of various backgrounds. It is a fact they are the WORST gamblers ever. They assume every decision must follow the law of math, and they are so busy trying to convince everyone at the table that they understand the game better than anyone else, that they completely miss what is actually occuring in front of them. I saw it again last Friday at Aria where a player at my table kept telling his two companions how you cannot beat this game and following the trends doesn't work. He was an engineer with a math PHD. They got clobbered while I cruised to an easy 23 unit win on a perfect TBL table. As I colored up, I'm pretty sure I heard him utter something about "luck." Damn, I love this game!

An excellent explanation way2fast!

Let me give it a shot just so maybe more can understand it:

Right, everyone should be in agreement that your initial odds are 1/3 (one out of 3)

But the correct answer is that if you change your mind, your odds of winning double from 1/3 to 2/3.(2 out 0f 3)

The movie 21 explained it that you must consider the latest information. Well, that's a Hollywood explanation that just doesn't cut it

because the latest information is you have 2 cups left making your odds 50/50 whether you change your mind or not.

Lets first consider why if you don't change your mind, your odds stay at 1/3:

Because nothing has happened to change those odds. Yes, I turned over an empty cup but that didn't tell you anything that

you didn't already know. You already knew that one of the other 2 cups was empty - didn't you. See that? So your odds stay

1 out of 3.

The odds of it being one of the other 2 cups were always 2/3, weren't they. But NOW you know which of the 2 out of 3 cups to pick -

don't you. One is empty so the odds on the other cup are still 2 out of 3. So changing your mind increases your odds from 1/3 to 2/3.

And if you try this on your kitchen table you will quickly verify this.

Blackjack is very similar. Your odds are NOT what they seem and they are not 1/2% against you as the casino portends - not even close.

The odds against you are 15%, verified by the casino profit rate.

Before you can beat any casino, you must know what you are actually up against.

Basic Strategy does NOT put the odds in your favor. Perfect Basic Strategy has a hands won rate of only 43% - making the odds

agaist the perfect BS player 14% - only 1% better than the average player - not nearly enough to win. To win at that game you

need a lot more arrows in your quiver. BS alone doesn't begin to cut it. Neither does card counting.

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