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SYSTEM 40 MANDATORY 1 seems to be doing OK } ECD GROUP | November 3, 2013


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After the Webinar this morning...I hit the Casino and had the chance to try out S40M1 in 5 shoes..

Some were short shoes because I used my exit strategy when the shoe seemed to be turning

I played 2H because of this being my first time using Mode 1...so my highest bet was a 2 bet

I made a few mistakes but they didn't seem to make a lot of difference in the grand scheme of things.

Shoe 1... +16

Shoe 2... +24 (with a high of 28) This shoe started P1 B7 which would normally be an F shoe but S40M1 blitzed it

Shoe 3... +21

Shoe 4... +29

Shoe 5... +7 (with a high of +13...This shoe was hard work and I probably should have exited the shoe much sooner but seeing as I was 90 units in front I ran with it a bit.

I know that this isn't a long enough test but I'm impressed with S40M1 so far.

Remembering that I played a very conservative 2H so my highest bet was 2 units....probably the lowest stress levels I've ever had since I started playing NOR

Note: S40 M3 and M2 would have done ok in 2 of these shoes but the other 3 shoes were a hotch potch of ZZ's of varying lengths... a few 2iar's mixed in with a bunch of 3,4,5,6 and 7iar's

My conclusion...M1 is more difficult to play and you really need to be well versed in S40 M2 and M3 before attempting M1...but it sure seems worth persevering with on today's trial.

Oz

PS: I covered the cost of today"s Webinar after 9 hands in my first shoe of the day...LOL

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Hi Ellis,

Can you post the information you presented at the Webinar on this forum for those of us who paid for the Webinar ,

bit were not able to attend and intended to watch the replay ?

Thanks in advance..

Wendel

N.B. Please ignore the reference to professional blackjack player on my description. It must have been added

by someone who is misinformed as to the level of my blackjack play instead of NOR Baccarat Player.

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Hi Ellis,

Can you post the information you presented at the Webinar on this forum for those of us who paid for the Webinar ,

bit were not able to attend and intended to watch the replay ?

Thanks in advance..

Wendel

N.B. Please ignore the reference to professional blackjack player on my description. It must have been added

by someone who is misinformed as to the level of my blackjack play instead of NOR Baccarat Player.

Yes of course Wendel!

I need to confer with Keith on the best way to handle that - perhaps a mass email to all attendees.

But also I'm having some good second thoughts about what exactly to do when S40M1 loses the 2 bet under a 2 iar??? I slept on that question and I'm thinking this is no time to make a 3 bet - esp. if it is the first 2 of the shoe. We have no evidence to support a 3 bet. I'd like to talk privately to the list about that. I'm thinking there is a better way to make up for that losing 2 bet.

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Yes of course Wendel!

I need to confer with Keith on the best way to handle that - perhaps a mass email to all attendees.

But also I'm having some good second thoughts about what exactly to do when S40M1 loses the 2 bet under a 2 iar??? I slept on that question and I'm thinking this is no time to make a 3 bet - esp. if it is the first 2 of the shoe. We have no evidence to support a 3 bet. I'd like to talk privately to the list about that. I'm thinking there is a better way to make up for that losing 2 bet.

err...Now you tell me.:rolleyes:

Well...I'm keeping my 97 units even if I played it wrong...You can't help bad luck...LOL

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After the Webinar this morning...I hit the Casino and had the chance to try out S40M1 in 5 shoes..

Some were short shoes because I used my exit strategy when the shoe seemed to be turning

I played 2H because of this being my first time using Mode 1...so my highest bet was a 2 bet

I made a few mistakes but they didn't seem to make a lot of difference in the grand scheme of things.

Shoe 1... +16

Shoe 2... +24 (with a high of 28) This shoe started P1 B7 which would normally be an F shoe but S40M1 blitzed it

Shoe 3... +21

Shoe 4... +29

Shoe 5... +7 (with a high of +13...This shoe was hard work and I probably should have exited the shoe much sooner but seeing as I was 90 units in front I ran with it a bit.

I know that this isn't a long enough test but I'm impressed with S40M1 so far.

Remembering that I played a very conservative 2H so my highest bet was 2 units....probably the lowest stress levels I've ever had since I started playing NOR

Note: S40 M3 and M2 would have done ok in 2 of these shoes but the other 3 shoes were a hotch potch of ZZ's of varying lengths... a few 2iar's mixed in with a bunch of 3,4,5,6 and 7iar's

My conclusion...M1 is more difficult to play and you really need to be well versed in S40 M2 and M3 before attempting M1...but it sure seems worth persevering with on today's trial.

Oz

PS: I covered the cost of today"s Webinar after 9 hands in my first shoe of the day...LOL

I supplied the shoe that Ellis worked the S40 mode 1 from Foxwoods in CT.

A couple of questions :

Do you stick to the -8 stop loss?

What was the biggest draw down?

Thanks, Ed

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I supplied the shoe that Ellis worked the S40 mode 1 from Foxwoods in CT.

A couple of questions :

Do you stick to the -8 stop loss?

What was the biggest draw down?

Thanks, Ed

Right Edgonsal, everyone Knew you supplied the shoe because your user name was at the top in big letters. Thanks.

Yes, we stick to -8. Your shoe went from +46 to + 40. But the way I'm now realizing we should play 2s it would have finished at +43. It is a very high scoring system under the right conditions and as Oz noted, those conditions come up quite often. Every column moved upward very steadily.

But it will be interesting to see what Oz's biggest drawdowns were.

Oz I think Ed means how far below 0 you went???

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Right Edgonsal, everyone Knew you supplied the shoe because your user name was at the top in big letters. Thanks.

Yes, we stick to -8. Your shoe went from +46 to + 40. But the way I'm now realizing we should play 2s it would have finished at +43. It is a very high scoring system under the right conditions and as Oz noted, those conditions come up quite often. Every column moved upward very steadily.

But it will be interesting to see what Oz's biggest drawdowns were.

Oz I think Ed means how far below 0 you went???

Yes - I do want to know how close to the stop loss you came and if there were any warning signs such as O/R patterns rising or falling, new patterns in the shoe - iar's or zz's. I have been looking at sequences of 5 plays from the beginning of the shoes with the direct correlation of O/R movement and OTL/TBL runs. Would be nice to have some thoughts from others on that.

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I supplied the shoe that Ellis worked the S40 mode 1 from Foxwoods in CT.

A couple of questions :

Do you stick to the -8 stop loss?

What was the biggest draw down?

Thanks, Ed

OK...The first 2 shoes ...My first bet won and I didn't look back from there

My third shoe was a bit tough at the start and I was up and down like a yo-yo...I went as low as -5 with a 2 bet to follow which won so I risked hitting -7 which (Playing2H...I normally would have exited the shoe much earlier when I hit -1 for the 4th time) I played out the shoe again on paper with U1D1M2 with -1 being my lowest with a 3 bet to come (which won) U1D1M2 would have won 30 units after a high of 35 units with a highest bet of 5

Interesting point...nothing else beats this shoe...It started out looking like SS F but kept switching sides...OTB4L looked ok for a while but 5iar followed by ZZ6 kinda would have caused some concern...LOL...and apart from that one ZZ run ...no way would you have played S40 in M2 or M3

The 4th shoe was a piece of cake (mostly ZZ interspersed with 3's and 4's) and S40M1 sailed through the whole shoe...There was even a run of TT's but M1 got me on board for those as well.

The 5th shoe seemed a bit of an effort at the time...but looking back...I missed my first bet...but after that I didn't ever look like going below 0 so I don't know why it seemed so tough. (maybe ...because although it was winning... it wasn't going anywhere fast) I think the earlier shoes spoiled me a little

Hope this helps

Oz

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Yes - I do want to know how close to the stop loss you came and if there were any warning signs such as O/R patterns rising or falling, new patterns in the shoe - iar's or zz's. I have been looking at sequences of 5 plays from the beginning of the shoes with the direct correlation of O/R movement and OTL/TBL runs. Would be nice to have some thoughts from others on that.

I'll have to get back to you on that because I've got to head off now...but suffice to say...the only shoe had probs had every conceivable event or series of events and would have had you tearing your hair out normally...LOL

What looks good to me about S40M1 is that you can be sailing along playing S40M2 or M3 and if you start hitting 3iar's with 4iar's or longer runs...it's a simple matter to switch to M1 which seems to take care of most of those events

Oz

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I'll have to get back to you on that because I've got to head off now...but suffice to say...the only shoe had probs had every conceivable event or series of events and would have had you tearing your hair out normally...LOL

What looks good to me about S40M1 is that you can be sailing along playing S40M2 or M3 and if you start hitting 3iar's with 4iar's or longer runs...it's a simple matter to switch to M1 which seems to take care of most of those events

Oz

Thanks Oz,

S40M1 seems like such a simple concept to play. You always bet for 1 to change to an opposite, 2's go to 3's, 4's go to 5's etc. Only odd numbers. So I guess that a default or switch mode would simply be a combo of OTB4L & F where you only play for even numbers. I'm sure that Ellis will have his take on this and offer some precautionary thoughts on the best way to play this. Great job on those 5 shoes!!!!

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We should remember, guys, that specifics about the webinar and the new concepts shouldn't be given in open forum.

Hey Bluetri,

Although I didn't do this seminar, (I did the Bethlehem trip) S40M1 is very obvious to me just by looking at Ellis's scorecard. I totally understand that this site is a business, however we should keep in mind that if we all unite then we have a much better chance of helping each other "Beat The Casino".

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This is just something that I wrote about. I played that shoe and commented on what Ellis came up with to beat it. It wasn't anything released by anyone that did the webinar. The material covered yesterday should help you win. I'm sure over time that everyone will benefit from the webinar.

Good luck to you and win some money :) Ed

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Hi,

S40M1 is too good to be true. I cant find any shoe so far that can is so perfectly without 2's until the end of the shoe.

Over here in Asia, never have such a perfect thing. Mixed shoes, ding dong, then OTb and streak ....... or the other way round you name it......

regards,

Vincent

Vincent, I'm quite certain the cards don't know what country they are in. Every shoe ever dealt is low in something, either 1's, 2s, 3s, or 4+s. That is a given.

S40M1 prefers shoes low in 2s. Normal 2s are 9 per shoe - about 2 per col. But you can have as few as zero. Low 2s will occur in nearly half of all shoes. Look at it this way: 2's are either high or low or dead even. It is pretty much 50/50.

All 3 NOR systems like 2s:

S40 likes 2s

OTB4L loves 2s

F3 likes 2s

At first glance NOR doesn't seem to have a system that beats the half of shoes low in 2s.

But NOR, in fact, does. S40M1 LOVES low 2s.

The problem that occurs is that as soon as I draw your attention to a specific NOR selection, Students start trying to play it exclusively rather than only in the shoe type that likes that selection. When I tried to introduce OTB4LM1, I FIRST said this is ONLY for low 3s and high 4+s - also about 50% of all shoes. But I no sooner introduced it than students were trying to play it exclusively W/O first noting the shoe type at hand. So I stopped teaching it because I was doing more harm than good. I asked one member who had posted a shoe he had lost why in the world was he playing OTB4LM1. Answer; "Because I always play OTB4LM1".

Look, NOR is about matching the right system and the right mode to the shoe at hand. I said at the beginning: "The most important factor of NOR is to know what each system likes and what it dislikes and I've posted the likes and dislikes of each system many times.

vinfong, you said "Mixed shoes, ding dong, then OTb and streak ....... or the other way round you name it......"

You've just described Baccarat everywhere.

But, nevertheless, EVERY shoe ever dealt is high in something(s) and equally low in something(s). That is not an opinion. It is a pure mathematical FACT.

And that is what decides which system and which mode we play.

Shoes don't catch up. Usually whatever is low stays low and whatever is high stays high. IF shoes caught up, EVERYBODY would beat Baccarat. We would simply bet on whatever is behind. There are such systems on the internet. Those systems are largely responsible for the impossibly high casino Baccarat profits. Casinos MARVEL at the stupidity of players. I marvel at the stupidity of system designers. Most don't have a clue. All players need to do, as every casino knows full well, is to bet the exact opposite - that whatever is behind will go further behind and whatever is ahead will go further ahead.

OK here we go again:

Mode 2 is our streak mode

Mode 3 is our chop mode

Mode 1 is a super streak mode

BTW, the best thing to do with super chop is simply bet straight opposites.

S40 likes high 1's and low 3+s (2s are good)

OTB4L likes high 2s and low 4+s (3s are good)

F particularly likes Strong side and long straight and/or ZZ runs

F2 hates 2s on the weak side

F3 hates 3s on the weak side.

Now, note that there is no system there for low 2s except F2 but F2 does not like runs on both sides. That puts a big hole in our armor.

What do we do when we see runs on both sides with low 2s? Well I'll tell you. We LOSE.

Therefore, I'm giving you a system that likes EVERYTHING except 2s - S40M1.

It loves ZZs - wins every bet

It loves 1's, 3s 4s 5s and straight or ZZ runs of any length.

It hates one thing and one thing only - 2s. It LOVES EVERYTHING else.

And half of all shoes has low 2's but particularly streaky shoes. (It is pretty hard to have a choppy shoe low in 2s)

NOW you have a very high scoring way to play this common shoe type that here-to-fore we usually lost.

When you think about it, any time you can turn a losing shoe into a high winner, you do WONDERS for your bottom line.

But can you play it in every shoe? Watch my lips! There is NO system you can play every shoe and win at Baccarat. NONE!

That is the WHOLE point of NOR and why it is composed of multiple systems.

Half of all shoes has low 2s, so I'm giving you the best system for low 2s... S40M1.

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And Ed, I totally agree with cooperation....what I don't agree with is paying a buck thirty yesterday for something others can get for free today. Just saying.

Exactly right bluetri! That is why I said I think it would be better if I correspond with the Webinar attendees in private. That is only fair to the attendees. The little bit said about how to play S40M1 here on the open forum isn't going to help non attendees. In fact, now they know just enough to get them into trouble if they attempt it.

I did consider posting my solution to 2s here because it would be pretty much meaningless to non attendees. But then I thought better of that idea.

I'll do a mass email to the attendees as soon as Keith can give me the Email list. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that in the Webinar example, I didn't play 2s the best way possible.

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Exactly right bluetri! That is why I said I think it would be better if I correspond with the Webinar attendees in private. That is only fair to the attendees. The little bit said about how to play S40M1 here on the open forum isn't going to help non attendees. In fact, now they know just enough to get them into trouble if they attempt it.

I did consider posting my solution to 2s here because it would be pretty much meaningless to non attendees. But then I thought better of that idea.

I'll do a mass email to the attendees as soon as Keith can give me the Email list. But the more I thought about it, the more I realized that in the Webinar example, I didn't play 2s the best way possible.

Ellis,

That's all fine but, if you want to be fair to all on here - than they should have the option of purchasing the webinar as well to improve their play.

I'm sure that if the players who attended post posative results from the webinar that

Other members will be interested in obtaining it and in turn increasing your overall

Participation at the next event. Win/Win

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Hey Bluetri,

Although I didn't do this seminar, (I did the Bethlehem trip) S40M1 is very obvious to me just by looking at Ellis's scorecard. I totally understand that this site is a business, however we should keep in mind that if we all unite then we have a much better chance of helping each other "Beat The Casino".

Right! Unfortunately we have to make money. Otherwise there would be no site. Webinars is just a cheaper way to do seminars - cheaper for you guys and cheaper for us. And right, Ed did donate that game so he did see it played out. And Ed is a very sharp guy, certainly sharp enoughb to understand it once he saw it played out. But Ed has his own way of playing regardless of what I say. And he seems to be doing OK with it so far. So I'm not surprised that he would elect not to attend the Webinar. What can I say after losing the first 2 shoes at Sands. I shouldn't have been playing at all that night but I didn't have that choice.

You know, when I played full time I had a test I ALWAYS did before each session - religiously. If I couldn't count down a deck of cards in 13 seconds and tell you what card you removed, I didn't play. That night I couldn't have counted down a deck in a half hour. But I did snap out of it and ended up OK. Unfortunately not many were still playing with me. But those who were did pretty good.

That's the problem with seminar play sessions. You can't pick your time and place and game. And that is half the battle. Ordinarily I wouldn't be caught dead playing on a Sat night. It is suicidal. Bac and BJ both are best played weekday mornings and worst played Saturday nights.

But it is not ALL about money.

Keith and I discussed haveing a free Webinar (at our expense) on NOR basics. Unfortunately we have too many newer members that are still totally lost.

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Right! Unfortunately we have to make money. Otherwise there would be no site. Webinars is just a cheaper way to do seminars - cheaper for you guys and cheaper for us. And right, Ed did donate that game so he did see it played out. And Ed is a very sharp guy, certainly sharp enoughb to understand it once he saw it played out. But Ed has his own way of playing regardless of what I say. And he seems to be doing OK with it so far. So I'm not surprised that he would elect not to attend the Webinar. What can I say after losing the first 2 shoes at Sands. I shouldn't have been playing at all that night but I didn't have that choice.

You know, when I played full time I had a test I ALWAYS did before each session - religiously. If I couldn't count down a deck of cards in 13 seconds and tell you what card you removed, I didn't play. That night I couldn't have counted down a deck in a half hour. But I did snap out of it and ended up OK. Unfortunately not many were still playing with me. But those who were did pretty good.

That's the problem with seminar play sessions. You can't pick your time and place and game. And that is half the battle. Ordinarily I wouldn't be caught dead playing on a Sat night. It is suicidal. Bac and BJ both are best played weekday mornings and worst played Saturday nights.

But it is not ALL about money.

Keith and I discussed haveing a free Webinar (at our expense) on NOR basics. Unfortunately we have too many newer members that are still totally lost.

Ellis,

I have worked for myself for lots of years now and still don't like doing things for free.. However, sometimes I make the decision to do so for the greater good and the potential of refferals and the opportunities that may come from it.

I read these logs on a daily basis and go back to the manual often.

Learning to trust NOR 100% will take time for me but I'm confident that with enough practice, that I will be a better player with casino money

in my pocket on a regular basis. That should be our goal every time we hit the tables!

I know that you are a very smart & logical thinker, other wise I wouldn't have joined in the first place.

You may be misunderstanding my intent - IMO, both you and Keith want us all to win, correct?

We should all aspire to play as well as both you and Keith do. You both know how to read the shoes and adjust accordingly.

I'm simply stating that from one business owner to another - please don't penalize the other members of this forum

For not attending the first time around.

It's not my place to speak for anyone else on this site, but I hope that other members will chime in on their need to have the latest winning formula at their disposal. And of course to be fair to the members who attended - PAY FOR IT.

I'm not asking for anything for free. As you profess often - this is the best approach to Baccarat

And the best site. Let's all keep up the good work and learn as much as we can from each other.

Thanks for all of your hard work :) Ed

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Another thing we discussed is doing a BJ Webinar for Bac players.

You know, when I played full time I had a huge advantage over most of you guys. I could play either game. And at any given time in a casino, one is usually a whole lot better than the other.

But there is something going on in BJ you should be made aware of. Back then (when I played full time) casinos were 95% BJ and 5% everything else. There were about 500 BJ players for every Bac player. It was common to walk into a casino and see 6 or 7 BJ pits and maybe 100 BJ tables. And I'm talking pure straight forward BJ, not these abominations we see today. Meanwhile Hollywood was cranking out BJ movies and libraries were full of BJ books. BJ had the casino's full attention. But in their successful maneuvers to beat card counters they ruined the game. Players lost interest. Casinos killed the goose that.....

But today, casinos have totally taken their eye off that particular ball. They are watching the Baccarat ball because it has become their biggest table game money maker. Today, they have totally taken their eye off of BJ and the game has become very easy to beat.

Yes, BJ is far more complex than Bac. BUT there is a very simple way of playing today's BJ game wherein you don't need to know card counting or even Basic Strategy. All you need to know is when to hit to 17 or better and when not to and you can tell from the last card dealt and be right most of the time. And, like Baccarat, that is the name of the game, being right most of the time.

If you guys would like to learn, I'd be more than happy to teach you.

You know, sometimes, especially these days, there simply is no good Bac game going on or if there is, there's no seats. So what do you do. You do exactly what you should never do - you play anyway. What would I do? I'd go play BJ.

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  • Keith Smith changed the title to SYSTEM 40 MANDATORY 1 seems to be doing OK } ECD GROUP | November 3, 2013

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