Would you play this s40 or otb after 20 hands

[bac-cracker]

I saw this shoe when it was around 20 hands. To me it started out s40, but then otb around hand 5+ or even hand 9+.

B1112113221221

P1111132241

Right when I jumped in at hand 21 it totally switched on me and got me out pretty quick as I already mentioned in a recent post, I also tried going back to s40 after all the 1's up to play 26... again wrong time... I just figure that its always better to play s40 than otb because it beats all 2's

Just unfortunate timing I guess, wondering your thoughts as I went with 2's because momentum was going that way near the end it still would have survived if I still played, better than 1's, I think.

Even with all the 1's I could have played otbm3 and switched otr and run too, but would you ever choose otb at hand 20

[MVSeahog]

I saw this shoe when it was around 20 hands. To me it started out s40, but then otb around hand 5+ or even hand 9+.

B1112113221221

P1111132241

..... but would you ever choose otb at hand 20

Killeu,

Hmm, looks like an O/R count of +6 at hand 20 and still increasing to +12 by hand 26.

For ME, this had S40 written all over it at hand 20.

MVS

[Guest]

I saw this shoe when it was around 20 hands. To me it started out s40, but then otb around hand 5+ or even hand 9+.

B1112113221221

P1111132241

Right when I jumped in at hand 21 it totally switched on me and got me out pretty quick as I already mentioned in a recent post, I also tried going back to s40 after all the 1's up to play 26... again wrong time... I just figure that its always better to play s40 than otb because it beats all 2's

Just unfortunate timing I guess, wondering your thoughts as I went with 2's because momentum was going that way near the end it still would have survived if I still played, better than 1's, I think.

Even with all the 1's I could have played otbm3 and switched otr and run too, but would you ever choose otb at hand 20

No, more than likely not. I would have got in sooner with S40 M3. You beat everything until you get to the 4. There the system is telling you to bet on the 4 that it will go 5. Since it is your first 4 bet, you should bet 1 unit ON the run. BUT, look at the shoe. Nothing more than 2 3s. 1's, 2s and 3's are all way above normal. Very extreme chop thus far. Personally I just could't bet that there is suddenly going to be a 5 in such a consistently choppy shoe. I would be extremely inclined to bet 4 units straight down, that the 4 will stay 4. No, it's not a book play. It is a gut play based on experience and I've made that bet hundreds of times playing both S40 M3 and F3 in super chop shoes with no runs. It USUALLY works.

Remember, S40M3 beats 1's, 2s, AND 3s - EVERYTHING in that shoe- until you get to the 4. You win every progression and you are up a lot of units, what are you going to do? I know what I would do.

[Norm A]

No, more than likely not. I would have got in sooner with S40 M3. You beat everything until you get to the 4. There the system is telling you to bet on the 4 that it will go 5. Since it is your first 4 bet, you should bet 1 unit ON the run. BUT, look at the shoe. Nothing more than 2 3s. 1's, 2s and 3's are all way above normal. Very extreme chop thus far. Personally I just could't bet that there is suddenly going to be a 5 in such a consistently choppy shoe. I would be extremely inclined to bet 4 units straight down, that the 4 will stay 4. No, it's not a book play. It is a gut play based on experience and I've made that bet hundreds of times playing both S40 M3 and F3 in super chop shoes with no runs. It USUALLY works.

Remember, S40M3 beats 1's, 2s, AND 3s - EVERYTHING in that shoe- until you get to the 4. You win every progression and you are up a lot of units, what are you going to do? I know what I would do.

Ellis, what do you mean four units straight down isn't that going on the run, do you mean four units opposite side ??

Are you saying straight down from the four in a row ?

[Guest]

When the majority of the events thus far are 1's and 2s it is decidedly S40.

If it is strongly favoring chop, it is DECIDEDLY S40M3.

When the majority of events is 2s and 3s NOW you play OTB4L.

You can't be changing systems every time you see a 2. The average shoe has NINE of the darn things.

[Plus One]

Look at the or count

[Guest]

Ellis, what do you mean four units straight down isn't that going on the run, do you mean four units opposite side ??

Are you saying straight down from the four in a row ?

No Norm, my 1 2 3 and 4 bets are "straight down". I'm making my 4 bet straight down instead of across because a 5 is so unlikely given the history of the shoe. Draw it out S40 and you'll see what I mean. I'm betting the run will end at 4. (Against the run.)(straight down). I'm sure we're on the same page here, It is just semantics. You'd likely do the same thing except you'd likely bet 2. Ha, I probably should too but you know me.

Right Brendan and MVS - "Look at the OR count!"

[Natural_9]

When the majority of the events thus far are 1's and 2s it is decidedly S40.

If it is strongly favoring chop, it is DECIDEDLY S40M3.

When the majority of events is 2s and 3s NOW you play OTB4L.

You can't be changing systems every time you see a 2. The average shoe has NINE of the darn things.

It's this kind of wisdom that needs to be put into another manual.