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Reward for the first MDB Millionaire. Just an Idea


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Hi All

Although I don't think there will any bigger reward than having a million dollars sitting in your bank account (or your safe at home) but it might be a good motive if we setup a reward for the first person here to reach a million dollars through MDB. Obviously a good track record to back up the claim would be a necessity but lets see if anyone gets there before end of 2014.

Also if anyone gets there it will be a great motive for everyone else.

Don't know. what do you think?

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Hi All

Although I don't think there will any bigger reward than having a million dollars sitting in your bank account (or your safe at home) but it might be a good motive if we setup a reward for the first person here to reach a million dollars through MDB. Obviously a good track record to back up the claim would be a necessity but lets see if anyone gets there before end of 2014.

Also if anyone gets there it will be a great motive for everyone else.

Don't know. what do you think?

Me thinks it will be a while ! The methods to achieve are all over the board ! One day its this way , the next day its different ! And when all said and done...looks to me its still 50/50 whats gonna come up next, bank or player ! :) Seems to be still a coin toss, heads/tails !

The 2 Mikes that show the most promise,,,,,,,,Mike from Philly (was up to 20K) that plays only on M,T,W at Parx Casino, Philly , has not posted for a couple weeks now...........and Mike from Florida , posts , here and there . Other than them......don't see a lot of success !

Of course there could be successes out there , but just not posting their success.

Mike and Keith , gonna have that upcoming seminar in Vegas........been there and done that........and before I spend bucks for another and attend........I wanna see concrete proof , that the presenter are killing them with what they are teaching ! Have yet to see that !

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Me thinks it will be a while ! The methods to achieve are all over the board ! One day its this way , the next day its different ! And when all said and done...looks to me its still 50/50 whats gonna come up next, bank or player ! :) Seems to be still a coin toss, heads/tails !

The 2 Mikes that show the most promise,,,,,,,,Mike from Philly (was up to 20K) that plays only on M,T,W at Parx Casino, Philly , has not posted for a couple weeks now...........and Mike from Florida , posts , here and there . Other than them......don't see a lot of success !

Of course there could be successes out there , but just not posting their success.

Mike and Keith , gonna have that upcoming seminar in Vegas........been there and done that........and before I spend bucks for another and attend........I wanna see concrete proof , that the presenter are killing them with what they are teaching ! Have yet to see that !

Well, there is only one set of standard rules and they are purely mechanical. The rules for each of the 3 MDB systems have never wavered. Certainly the odds of 4 or 5 3s before there is a 4 is far from 50/50. More like 90/10.

If we see any true improvements we could make to the rules we'll check them out.

For instance, I'm not completely happy with only looking at the event that is highest.

High 1's and 2s: S40 has that well covered

High 2s and 3s: OTB4L has that well covered

High 1's and 4+ S40 M1 has that well covered

But what about high 1's and 3s???

And what about high 2s and 4+???

We can't pretend that only looking at the highest event solves all problems. Because there are two right there it doesn't solve.

We are still missing something.

There has to be a component I'm just not seeing yet.

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If we see any true improvements we could make to the rules we'll check them out.

For instance, I'm not completely happy with only looking at the event that is highest.

High 1's and 2s: S40 has that well covered

High 2s and 3s: OTB4L has that well covered

High 1's and 4+ S40 M1 has that well covered

But what about high 1's and 3s???

And what about high 2s and 4+???

We can't pretend that only looking at the highest event solves all problems. Because there are two right there it doesn't solve.

We are still missing something.

There has to be a component I'm just not seeing yet.

I'm actually really glad to see Ellis post this particular piece of information, because it has been causing me a lot of consternation is my practice when the SAP count is high with 1's & 3's and 2's & 4+'s. Even 3's and 4+'s are a problem for me.

I try to base my system selection on the highest two counts. For now what I'm doing is adjusting my play when these "difficult" counts come up. What I do is simply stop betting until the count moves to one of the more favorable ones, such as high 1/2, 1/4 or 2/3. Until we find a better solution for these "difficult" counts, I'm trying to be a little more conservative in my play.

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Mike and Keith , gonna have that upcoming seminar in Vegas........been there and done that........and before I spend bucks for another and attend........I wanna see concrete proof , that the presenter are killing them with what they are teaching ! Have yet to see that !

I don't know about concrete proof, but I certainly think it would be nice to hear about Mike's recent results in Vegas. He mentioned he was going back for a 4 day trip a week ago or so, it would be informative to at least hear how it went. Especially for those going to the seminar in two weeks. (Note: I'm not going, would like to, but family obligations prevent.) Obviously he has no requirement to tell us squat, but if he's going to be a presenter/instructor at a seminar it would be telling to see what his results with MDB have been. I hope they have been great, I'm rooting for everyone to be successful.

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Well, there is only one set of standard rules and they are purely mechanical. The rules for each of the 3 MDB systems have never wavered. Certainly the odds of 4 or 5 3s before there is a 4 is far from 50/50. More like 90/10.

If we see any true improvements we could make to the rules we'll check them out.

For instance, I'm not completely happy with only looking at the event that is highest.

High 1's and 2s: S40 has that well covered

High 2s and 3s: OTB4L has that well covered

High 1's and 4+ S40 M1 has that well covered

But what about high 1's and 3s???

And what about high 2s and 4+???

We can't pretend that only looking at the highest event solves all problems. Because there are two right there it doesn't solve.

We are still missing something.

There has to be a component I'm just not seeing yet.

How about just going with the most recent event(s) when there is a tough call ?

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Well, there is only one set of standard rules and they are purely mechanical. The rules for each of the 3 MDB systems have never wavered. Certainly the odds of 4 or 5 3s before there is a 4 is far from 50/50. More like 90/10.

Ellis, I certainly don't disagree with your odds on the 3iar's before 4iar's etc. as they relate to winning the secondary progression. In all my practice, I believe I have only once lost my 3 bet of the secondary progression.

My issue is, I'm still not "seeing" how winning the secondary progression saves you from losing the shoe to the primary progression bet losses. I'm still only winning shoes at somewhere just slightly above 50% following the mechanical rules of MDB. It seems the frequent system changes caused by the changing SAP counts, is causing the primary progression bets to lose frequently and you never get far in the secondary progression because it keeps starting over with each system change. The plus is you are betting the zero bet in the secondary progression more often than moving forward to the 1,2,3 bets of the secondary progression I guess.

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Ellis, I certainly don't disagree with your odds on the 3iar's before 4iar's etc. as they relate to winning the secondary progression. In all my practice, I believe I have only once lost my 3 bet of the secondary progression.

My issue is, I'm still not "seeing" how winning the secondary progression saves you from losing the shoe to the primary progression bet losses. I'm still only winning shoes at somewhere just slightly above 50% following the mechanical rules of MDB. It seems the frequent system changes caused by the changing SAP counts, is causing the primary progression bets to lose frequently and you never get far in the secondary progression because it keeps starting over with each system change. The plus is you are betting the zero bet in the secondary progression more often than moving forward to the 1,2,3 bets of the secondary progression I guess.

Excellent remarks gman!

Moreover, it looks like it is going to be mostly you and I designing this system.

Correct, the primary prog is where the money is and success on the primary prog is a function of selecting the right system at the right time.

I don't think we can get away with just looking at the highest count. I think you were right about that - we need to match the highest two counts to the right system. There is no getting away from it. The 2nd high count often decides the issue.

An example is high 2s: Together with high 1's it is clearly S40.

But together with high 3s it is clearly OTB4L.

I think our weakest link at the moment is high 3s.

We are good when high 3s are together with high 2s.

But none of our 3 current systems covers high 3s with high 1's.

It was previously suggested that we also incorporate S40M3 because it beats 1's and 2s and 3s. That is a pretty strong argument.

While M3 with a 123 prog only breaks even on 3s it does make a unit on both 1's and 2s.

Since we are already well covered for high 2s and 3s

I'm thinking about S40M3 with a 102 prog for high 1's and 3s. It would make 1 unit on a 1, lose 1 unit on a 2 and win 1 unit on a 3.

It would lose 3 units on a 4 but a 4 would then put us OTR.

Does this give you any ideas?

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Excellent remarks gman!

Moreover, it looks like it is going to be mostly you and I designing this system.

Correct, the primary prog is where the money is and success on the primary prog is a function of selecting the right system at the right time.

I don't think we can get away with just looking at the highest count. I think you were right about that - we need to match the highest two counts to the right system. There is no getting away from it. The 2nd high count often decides the issue.

An example is high 2s: Together with high 1's it is clearly S40.

But together with high 3s it is clearly OTB4L.

I think our weakest link at the moment is high 3s.

We are good when high 3s are together with high 2s.

But none of our 3 current systems covers high 3s with high 1's.

It was previously suggested that we also incorporate S40M3 because it beats 1's and 2s and 3s. That is a pretty strong argument.

While M3 with a 123 prog only breaks even on 3s it does make a unit on both 1's and 2s.

Since we are already well covered for high 2s and 3s

I'm thinking about S40M3 with a 102 prog for high 1's and 3s. It would make 1 unit on a 1, lose 1 unit on a 2 and win 1 unit on a 3.

It would lose 3 units on a 4 but a 4 would then put us OTR.

Does this give you any ideas?

S40M1 may work for High 1's and 3's , IF we bet opposite after 3 iar instead of repeat when 1's and 3's are high.

Then bet back OTR if we lose the opposite bet.

In the shoes I see it wouldn't hurt to bet opposite after 3 iar always with s40m1. Its purpose is no longer to be a streak system . Right?

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S40M1 may work for High 1's and 3's , IF we bet opposite after 3 iar instead of repeat when 1's and 3's are high.

Then bet back OTR if we lose the opposite bet.

In the shoes I see it wouldn't hurt to bet opposite after 3 iar always with s40m1. Its purpose is no longer to be a streak system . Right?

S4 is still a streak system, it's purpose I believe is to get you on runs quicker. Your idea might work as a tweak to S4 in a high 3's and 1's situation.

I'll have to think it through some more, but this might work. Not sure what the consequences will be if a run of TT or 4+'s hits before the SAP count points to a different system, but I think we can test it out.

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S4 is still a streak system, it's purpose I believe is to get you on runs quicker. Your idea might work as a tweak to S4 in a high 3's and 1's situation.

I'll have to think it through some more, but this might work. Not sure what the consequences will be if a run of TT or 4+'s hits before the SAP count points to a different system, but I think we can test it out.

If we lose our opposite after 3 iar and win the bet back I would bet repeats until the run ended.

The TT's occur before the tweak, so the consequences will be the same. Hopefully with high 3's we will get to OTB4L,or s1 before losing our prog. Higher 2's may have to come at the expens of 1's or 3's.

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S40M1 may work for High 1's and 3's , IF we bet opposite after 3 iar instead of repeat when 1's and 3's are high.

Then bet back OTR if we lose the opposite bet.

In the shoes I see it wouldn't hurt to bet opposite after 3 iar always with s40m1. Its purpose is no longer to be a streak system . Right?

Hmm, well no, we need S40M1 for streak, esp high 1's with high 4+.

But I like TBL for high 1's and 3s but W/O the 0 bet.

But that is not our main problem according to your notes.

The main problem is failure of our primary prog. You also mention success of the secondary prog. That part seems OK. But our primary prog is not holding up. That means our SAP system selection is not working in preshuffled cards.

BTW, I AM getting good reports for regular cards.

As I mentioned at the beginning System selection is less important with preshuffled because in preshuffled the cards have less memory and are closer to random.

I've been giving this a lot of thought along with the rest of your comments.

One thing I picked up from your comments is that in preshuffled a lack of 3s is seldom a problem.

I agree with that from my own play with preshuffled.

Work with me on an experiment. I'm wondering if the 0 bet is doing us more harm than good with preshuffled???

Lets try going back to the origional way of playing this. We were getting about a 90% win rate before we started "improving" it.

Play your same shoes over ONLY using S40.

So OK you automatically win all 1's and 2s.

The question is what to do with 3s???

The first 3 of the shoe our SAP count is at 0,0 for 3s and 4+ and therefore useless at that point.

You could almost go by the play number for the first 3. But lets try the OR count.

At your first 3 of the shoe your OR count will usually be plus.

In the rare situations where the OR count is - or 0 at the first 3, bet the 3 will go 4.

But when the OR count is +, bet the 3 will stay 3 - 1 unit.

So your primary prog is still 1,2. But your secondary prog is 1235 - since you did good with that.

You will usually be betting that the first 3 stays 3 but that doesn't seem to be a problem.

Later in the shoe you can go by the SAP counts: High 3s bet 3s stay 3. High 4+ bet 3s go to 4.

For now, play runs the same as before but I'm thinking about a change there too. But lets just look at one change at a time.

This is a much simpler way to play preshuffled.

Let me know how it does - I'm hoping a lot better. This is the way we first played this system with great success. I'm hoping it is the answer for preshuffled.

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Excellent remarks gman!

Moreover, it looks like it is going to be mostly you and I designing this system.

Correct, the primary prog is where the money is and success on the primary prog is a function of selecting the right system at the right time.

I don't think we can get away with just looking at the highest count. I think you were right about that - we need to match the highest two counts to the right system. There is no getting away from it. The 2nd high count often decides the issue.

An example is high 2s: Together with high 1's it is clearly S40.

But together with high 3s it is clearly OTB4L.

I think our weakest link at the moment is high 3s.

We are good when high 3s are together with high 2s.

But none of our 3 current systems covers high 3s with high 1's.

It was previously suggested that we also incorporate S40M3 because it beats 1's and 2s and 3s. That is a pretty strong argument.

While M3 with a 123 prog only breaks even on 3s it does make a unit on both 1's and 2s.

Since we are already well covered for high 2s and 3s

I'm thinking about S40M3 with a 102 prog for high 1's and 3s. It would make 1 unit on a 1, lose 1 unit on a 2 and win 1 unit on a 3.

It would lose 3 units on a 4 but a 4 would then put us OTR.

Does this give you any ideas?

To me S40M3 with 102 prog would be a more appealing system to use instead of S4 especially at shoe starts. My experience is that 2s and 3s are the most uncertain events until after either of them has became stable. When that happens it would be clear to us whether it is to play S1 or S23.

When 2s has the highest count, S23 is for sure is the system for me. When 1s and 3s are at high counts with 3s count much greater than 2s, I would always bet 2s will go 3 following the SAP LC rule. Now that if 2s count is higher than 3s or becoming high, my observation is that it is most of the time the 4th unconfirmed 2s will go to 3s. However this is not always certain. A great percentage of the shoes will have 2s dominating over 3s and when that happens it makes our secondary prog a fool of itself when we bet every other 2s will go 3s. Therefore in my opinion our SP betting rule is mediocre between 2s and 3s causing all the confusion and unconfidence.

So my favorite way to play primary prog would be switching between either S1 or S23. S4M3 would be an optional play when 3s are high. It may be more efficient to place our secondary prog of S4M3 on no 4 3s before there is a 4s instead of no 4 2s before there is a 3s. It would also cover our ass of playing S23 at an unconfirmed 3s.

This is because we can only have one of the 1s 2s high (S1), 2s 3s high (S23) or 1s 3s high (S4M3). Playing S1 would already cover the purpose of SP betting there is no 4 2s before there is a 3s. We do that when 2s SAP count is higher than 3s. And then S23 would have no issue for the flip flopping 2s and 3s as it kills them all. S23 takes care of everything when 2s is competing with 3s. Now then it is the high 3s with the pitfall of it going 4s is our problem. When that happens often, we leave the S23 system and go S4M3 instead. SAP would tell us to do that also.

Now that what about when S4M3 goes higher to 5s, 6s and 7s? It is certainly our S4 system OTR playing SAP going by the MC rules. At an unconfirmed 5s or 6s I would be very careful and bet opposite if OR count is positive or no less than -3. If OR count favors repeat I would bet both 5s and 6s would go higher. When 7s occurs I bet 7s will go 8s no matter what the OR count is.

Would Ellis verify my above observation can be valid and logical? If it does, I need to continue my programming accordingly. What is puzzling me is the rule “1’s and 3s is S1â€.

Good Luck everybody!

AYS

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Let me know how it does - I'm hoping a lot better. This is the way we first played this system with great success. I'm hoping it is the answer for preshuffled.

I'm not having any better results this way either. I've tested quite a few shoes this morning and I'm getting basically the same shoe win rate of just over 50%. Something is just not working here. Hell, maybe it's just me.

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I don't know about concrete proof, but I certainly think it would be nice to hear about Mike's recent results in Vegas. He mentioned he was going back for a 4 day trip a week ago or so, it would be informative to at least hear how it went. Especially for those going to the seminar in two weeks. (Note: I'm not going, would like to, but family obligations prevent.) Obviously he has no requirement to tell us squat, but if he's going to be a presenter/instructor at a seminar it would be telling to see what his results with MDB have been. I hope they have been great, I'm rooting for everyone to be successful.

I went for 4 days and extended it to five. I didn't play a whole lot as this trip was my annual Hard Rock Rehab pool party trip, but I managed to hit 3 shoes at Mirage on Friday night to +5, then several shoes at Hard rock on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday I was very tired and having a hard time concentrating. Not sure if the shoes were that much tougher or just 4 days with limited sleep catching up to me. I lost one shoe because I grew impatient at HR, then went to Luxor and captured +10 on re-used cards, followed by +9 at Mandolay Bay. I then went to Aria barely holding my head up. I was at +5 and placed a 1 bet which I lost then proceeded to place a 2 bet but mistakenly placed it wrong and the cards were dealt too fast for me to change it. It would have taken me to +6 and I would have left. Instead I was at +3 and so tired and irritated that I just quit. In any case, I found MDB to take several shoes into the 40+ hands, but each one made it to plus 5. The downside is the party cost me 6K, so all of my winnings all weekend had to pay for the trip, not pad my bankroll.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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One other note. I met with my Host at Hard Rock in Vegas on Tuesday morning. Although I played every day, he told me I had less than 3 hours of table time in 4 days, and I was up over $5000, which was after my morning bad shoe. I was playing $200 units the entire time. He wasn't particularly happy that had agreed in advance to comp a $1000 a night suite for 4 nights to get me to play there instead of playing in the MGM family. Based on my results at Hard Rock, I'll certainly go back and give him more table time because he had confirmed (as did my scorecards because I also note times) that I was hitting +5 and quitting playing 30 minutes per shoe. I'll be back in Vegas on Friday the 20th if anyone is interested in playing before the seminar.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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I went for 4 days and extended it to five. I didn't play a whole lot as this trip was my annual Hard Rock Rehab pool party trip, but I managed to hit 3 shoes at Mirage on Friday night to +5, then several shoes at Hard rock on Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday I was very tired and having a hard time concentrating. Not sure if the shoes were that much tougher or just 4 days with limited sleep catching up to me. I lost one shoe because I grew impatient at HR, then went to Luxor and captured +10 on re-used cards, followed by +9 at Mandolay Bay. I then went to Aria barely holding my head up. I was at +5 and placed a 1 bet which I lost then proceeded to place a 2 bet but mistakenly placed it wrong and the cards were dealt too fast for me to change it. It would have taken me to +6 and I would have left. Instead I was at +3 and so tired and irritated that I just quit. In any case, I found MDB to take several shoes into the 40+ hands, but each one made it to plus 5. The downside is the party cost me 6K, so all of my winnings all weekend had to pay for the trip, not pad my bankroll.
One other note. I met with my Host at Hard Rock in Vegas on Tuesday morning. Although I played every day, he told me I had less than 3 hours of table time in 4 days, and I was up over $5000, which was after my morning bad shoe. I was playing $200 units the entire time. He wasn't particularly happy that had agreed in advance to comp a $1000 a night suite for 4 nights to get me to play there instead of playing in the MGM family. Based on my results at Hard Rock, I'll certainly go back and give him more table time because he had confirmed (as did my scorecards because I also note times) that I was hitting +5 and quitting playing 30 minutes per shoe. I'll be back in Vegas on Friday the 20th if anyone is interested in playing before the seminar.

I think his results are pretty close to inline with what I have been experiencing in my practice. Maybe slightly better. Here's how I break it down based on what Mike has reported:

3 shoes won at Mirage to +5 each.

Several shoes at HR on Sunday and Monday. (I call several 3 shoes without anymore clarification and had to be losses to offset reported winnings.)

Lost one shoe at HR. Amount not reported.

+10 one shoe at Luxor.

+9 one shoe at Mandalay Bay

+3 one shoe at Aria

This is a total of 10 shoes. 6 wins for total of +37 units. 4 losses, unknown amount, but had to be at least a total of -10 units.

6 wins/4 losses = 60% shoe win rate.

This would give a net win of +27 units. Since he reported playing $200 units, this is a win of $5,400. Which corresponds to his reporting being up over $5,000. Nice job! That's a good win for only a few hours of play.

Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, this is just what I got out the two posts.

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gman,

good wrap up, however the losses I suffered came from playing tired and not following MDB rules which is a bad habit I have. I posted all except two of the mirage shoes (don't know what happened to those cards, but were both winning shoes) and I had a three more shoes at HR, one was +6 at $100 units which I lost the card for and another one was more of a quick gamblers hit where I was showing off for a friend jumped in for a few hands, made $1000 and left. Didn't record anything. The losses at HR were from the last shoe I played in HR at 6AM and lost 2K, then played same shoe 4 hours later (nobody had been at the table since) and lost another 1600. I was playing $400 units for that shoe. Apparently I didn't write down anything on that shoe because it isn't in my book. Either that or I ripped it up because I was upset for breaking my winning every day streak!

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.  Figure out a way to win at baccarat that fits your lifestyle, you don't have to eat fish anymore!

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gman,

good wrap up, however the losses I suffered came from playing tired and not following MDB rules which is a bad habit I have. I posted all except two of the mirage shoes (don't know what happened to those cards, but were both winning shoes) and I had a three more shoes at HR, one was +6 at $100 units which I lost the card for and another one was more of a quick gamblers hit where I was showing off for a friend jumped in for a few hands, made $1000 and left. Didn't record anything. The losses at HR were from the last shoe I played in HR at 6AM and lost 2K, then played same shoe 4 hours later (nobody had been at the table since) and lost another 1600. I was playing $400 units for that shoe. Apparently I didn't write down anything on that shoe because it isn't in my book. Either that or I ripped it up because I was upset for breaking my winning every day streak!

Hey Mike, Thanks for the additional color. I know we all appreciate hearing how others are faring in their play.

Mostly what I'm trying to figure out is a realistic shoe win rate. I believe as long as we can keep it up over 50% we can get ahead +units following disciplined stop losses, just not at as fast a rate as our MDB schedule would like. Obviously if we could win at a 90% rate it would seem that much more achievable. I'm just not seeing anything close to that yet.

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Hi gman,

I have almost completely forgotten the length rules for zz runs playing the MDB systems.

I had hoped they would be written in the NEW mdb rules thread.

Are you letting the zz runs run to the end or are you following rules similar to the ST runs ?

If you could point me to where the zz rules are written , I would appreciate it.

Thanks

Wendel

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