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MDB+ The Ed Gil Example


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Ed drew out this example to play 7 and got the 1 bet at play 7 correct.

However, he missed his 1's stay 1 progression start at play 6.

His question was where to make second bets.

So I drew out the example to play 27 to answer that question.

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First, we don't know that an event is confirmed until the next play confirms it.

So, play 3 confirms the first 2 and play 5 confirms the 2nd 2.

So at play 5 we have TWO confirmed 2s with no 1's or 3s between which triggers that 1's stay 1 (play6) as well as that 2s go to 3 (play 7)

We win our 1 bet at play 7 so our prog that 2s go to 3 is complete.

However we lost our 1's stay 1 bet at play 6 so we wait for an opposite (play 8) and make our 2 bet at play 9 that 1's stay 1. We win so now both progs are complete to we are looking for another pair.

Play 12 confirms our 2nd 3 with no 2s or 4s between. (the neighboring events to a pair of 3s are 2s and 4s).

Therefore we can bet the next 2 stays 2 (play 14)

And that the next 3 goes to 4 (play 15)

We lose our 1 at play 14 so we wait for the next 2 (play 17 and bet 2 that the 2 stays 2 (play 18).

We win so all progs are complete and we are looking for another pair to start new progs.

Play 21 confirms a 2nd 2 with no 3s between. So we bet 1 at play 23 that 2s go to 3. End of prog so we are waiting for another pair.

Play 26 confirms a 2nd 2 with no 1's between so we bet 1 at play 27 that 1's stay 1.

We win so our score is now +6.

See, whenever we lose a bet, for instance that 2s stay 2, we wait for the next 2 and then bet 2 that the 2 stays 2.

So see, the only way we can lose our entire 124 progression is when the shoe produces 5 of a kind - 5 of the same event W/O producing any neighboring events. This is highly unlikely with new preshuffled cards because they are too random to keep producing the same event.

But, it WILL happen every now and then.

So OK, let's say the worst happens and you lose a 124. THAT, by itself, is, of course, -7. BUT it is highly likely that you won some progs along the way at either the 1 ot the 2 or the 4 bet level.

SO, your AVERAGE losing score is NOT -7. It is closer to -3 or -4.

You could even lose an entire 124 and still win the shoe.

So what questions do you have about any of the bets I made???

Now, let's take another look at another example I drew out. Maybe it will be clearer this time

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It should be obvious to everyone that with MDB+ or the 5 of a kind system, whichever you want to call it, that to play this system by itself (recommended) we not only need a touch game (also recommended) we also need a table with other players playing because, by ourselves, we are not betting every hand. We are betting too seldom to keep the dealer dealing. Of course we also need a table with some open seats.

Therefore we are looking for touch games with other players already playing and with open seats. That is the whole idea of the Baccarat Crawl coming up very quickly. While such games are plentiful in Vegas, we want to find them quickly while keeping the whole group together. THAT is the job of the limo driver. Find touch games in progress with open seats. AND, don't lose anybody along the way.

Now, let's talk about the question of whether or not we should wait for 3 2s before we bet on 1's.

I think we can use our heads about this. The answer is yes and no.

If the first two 2s are spread out. I think 2 2s is sufficient.

But when we get 2 2s very early in the shoe, especially back to back, nows the time to wait for 3 2s.

Such as 22 or 232 very early on - not a good sign - let's wait for a 3rd 2 before we bet on 1's.

Does everybody get that?

Now, if we must play head to head we need a "partner" system to play along with MDB+.

I think the system that fills the bill best is net betting PvB.

BUT, I think we should play it with lesser units if possible.

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What does net betting player versus banker mean? Can you post a shoe showing this?

There is a thread called The Art Of Net Betting you should read.

For PvB net betting we run a 12345 prog dwn both the P and B sides usually Up 1 on a loss Down 2 on a win.

But we don't actually play both sides. We subtract the low entry from the high entry and bet only the difference on the side of the higher entry.

It takes a bit of know how and practice to do it successfully.

But it works best when the two sides you are betting are running fairly close. That is usually the case with preshuffled cards. P and B seldom get very far apart. Kevin demonstrated this on his recent Vegas trip.

Here is Ed's same shoe net betting PvB U1D2. You'll see it does pretty good in spite of 15 Players vs 12 Banks.

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Awesome Ellis-- Thanks for the breakdown ----This is a great demo --- and Ed --- you and I have talked about this before-- well done on your work....

I think you guys are gonna kill it at the crawl.

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Ellis, thanks for the net betting sample. What would you do when you are net betting and get a straight run of 6 or more which goes past the 5 step progression?

Ha, that of course is the million dollar question with net betting.

But I'll show you my favorite way of net betting that has made me a LOT of money.

It is called The Skip System and it makes runs your friend. I'm showing you the 36 version which means you skip after a losing 3 or 6 entry. Then that side waits for a 2iar to resume. This way you make big money on the common sporadic 1's and just about everything else that can happen.

Both sides bet U1D2M2

M2 means mandatory 2. You ALWAYS enter a 2 after the 1 regardless whether the 1 wins or loses.

It is a 4 Hi system so if you should ever get to a 6 entry (very rare) you oppose it with a 2.

Your goal is +20.

I played the same shoe except I added a 6iar near the bottom so you could see how it handles runs.

Note that we make money on every run in the shoe except we broke even on the 4. We also killed the Sporadic 1's.

The longer a run is the more we win. We also kill ZZ and TT runs. And we also kill garbage.

It is perfect to go with MDB+ because it bets nearly every hand from play 3.

It also handles pretty big disparity. Note that we have 21 Players vs only 16 Banks.

Also note that we are at +12 and only half way through a full shoe.

Also note that our score never went negative!

post-8-1450026240529_thumb.jpg

OK so how did I arrive at my score?

You subtract the low entry from the high entry and only bet the difference always on the side of the higher entry.

Tied entries - you have no bet that play.

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Ellis, attached please see the 3 shoes I played today using your MDB+ system. I played at Casino Rama in Barrie, Ontario, Canada. I won all 3 shoes, 8 units in total playing $100 units. I never got past a 2 bet in my progressions! Yay! Here is how I played the shoes:

1) I played at touch tables with pre shuffled cards fresh deck of course for each new shoe.

2) I waited for 3 2's to appear before comencing my first bet.

3) During my first shoe, all the players accept myself, left the table. So I left the table as I needed the other players to place bets so I could get the cards delt to me.

4) In shoe #2, I stopped playing at hand 60 as my next indicator suggested I look for a 4 to go to a 5 but because I was past hand 40 (the half way point) I did not start that progression at all and left the table.

5) In shoe #3, I stopped playing because I only had 15 hands left in the shoe to play and I realized the risk in starting a progression that I may not be able to win as I may run out of hands left to be delt in the shoe. So I took my 2 units of profit and walked away a winner!!

This is the most conservative and highly effective system I think you have developed. I noticed all the other players at my tables today betting $1,000 or $2,000 per hand based on a hunch. Some times they would win a big hand, and some times they would lose a big hand. But by the end of the first 2 shoes they had lost it all and left the table a loser. I can understand that the MDB+ system is designed for larger bets. I bet on less than 10% of the hands delt and won over 66% of my bets placed. I never bet more than 2 units.

I will post a blank score card that my boyfriend Dr.Ken designed for me. I find it very helpful in keeping organized with multiple progressions in play at one time. I hope it helps someone else.

Your MDB+ system will bring Vegas to her knees$$$$!![ATTACH]3078

post-6876-14500262407548_thumb.jpg

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Looks interesting. If it kills pretty much everything why haven't we used this skip system from the start? First I've heard of it.

Ha, that of course is the million dollar question with net betting.

But I'll show you my favorite way of net betting that has made me a LOT of money.

It is called The Skip System and it makes runs your friend. I'm showing you the 36 version which means you skip after a losing 3 or 6 entry. Then that side waits for a 2iar to resume. This way you make big money on the common sporadic 1's and just about everything else that can happen.

Both sides bet U1D2M2

M2 means mandatory 2. You ALWAYS enter a 2 after the 1 regardless whether the 1 wins or loses.

It is a 4 Hi system so if you should ever get to a 6 entry (very rare) you oppose it with a 2.

Your goal is +20.

I played the same shoe except I added a 6iar near the bottom so you could see how it handles runs.

Note that we make money on every run in the shoe except we broke even on the 4. We also killed the Sporadic 1's.

The longer a run is the more we win. We also kill ZZ and TT runs. And we also kill garbage.

It is perfect to go with MDB+ because it bets nearly every hand from play 3.

It also handles pretty big disparity. Note that we have 21 Players vs only 16 Banks.

Also note that we are at +12 and only half way through a full shoe.

Also note that our score never went negative!

[ATTACH]3077[/ATTACH]

OK so how did I arrive at my score?

You subtract the low entry from the high entry and only bet the difference always on the side of the higher entry.

Tied entries - you have no bet that play.

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Looks interesting. If it kills pretty much everything why haven't we used this skip system from the start? First I've heard of it.

It can be risky with regular cards. But preshuffled either new or used tends to have less disparity.

Of course you can also play it OvR - whichever is running closer.

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Ellis, attached please see the 3 shoes I played today using your MDB+ system. I played at Casino Rama in Barrie, Ontario, Canada. I won all 3 shoes, 8 units in total playing $100 units. I never got past a 2 bet in my progressions! Yay! Here is how I played the shoes:

1) I played at touch tables with pre shuffled cards fresh deck of course for each new shoe.

2) I waited for 3 2's to appear before comencing my first bet.

3) During my first shoe, all the players accept myself, left the table. So I left the table as I needed the other players to place bets so I could get the cards delt to me.

4) In shoe #2, I stopped playing at hand 60 as my next indicator suggested I look for a 4 to go to a 5 but because I was past hand 40 (the half way point) I did not start that progression at all and left the table.

5) In shoe #3, I stopped playing because I only had 15 hands left in the shoe to play and I realized the risk in starting a progression that I may not be able to win as I may run out of hands left to be delt in the shoe. So I took my 2 units of profit and walked away a winner!!

This is the most conservative and highly effective system I think you have developed. I noticed all the other players at my tables today betting $1,000 or $2,000 per hand based on a hunch. Some times they would win a big hand, and some times they would lose a big hand. But by the end of the first 2 shoes they had lost it all and left the table a loser. I can understand that the MDB+ system is designed for larger bets. I bet on less than 10% of the hands delt and won over 66% of my bets placed. I never bet more than 2 units.

I will post a blank score card that my boyfriend Dr.Ken designed for me. I find it very helpful in keeping organized with multiple progressions in play at one time. I hope it helps someone else.

Your MDB+ system will bring Vegas to her knees$$$$!![ATTACH]3078

Wow! Very, very well done!

Dr. Ken is an excellent Designer - everything you need to know but nothing more.

I think 2Hi games will be quite common - the odds are so high on your 2 bet.

I also think it is good to play safe and quit early.

2 or 3 or even 4 solid units is better than 5 or 6 risky units. You can raise your unit size faster playing conservative and with greater confidence.

66% hit rate! There are players who would kill for a 51% hit rate! 66% is supposed to be impossible. But that was before Ellis! Your progression hit rate was 100% - also "impossible"!

BTW you might consider having some BTC business cards made up that tell folks to say "Golfgirl sent me!"

We pay hefty commissions you know.

So OK, you won $800. Now you've only got $999200 to go. Think Norm!

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It can be risky with regular cards. But preshuffled either new or used tends to have less disparity.

Of course you can also play it OvR - whichever is running closer.

You are the man Ellis. I took out my 8 deck random shoe and played this twice and won + 20 both times. Not bad for learning how to play the system in 5 minutes! I hit -10 at one point but skyrocketed back up.

The only thing I don't understand is how it is a 4hi system. I must had done something wrong because I got to a 5 bet. This happened when I was already waiting for 2 players to start betting player again (previously lost the 3). Lost the 2 and 3 bet on bank (which now made me wait for 2 banks before continuing). Picked up where I left off with a 4 and 5 bet on player. Is that correct?

Also what do you recommend the stop loss be? Or maybe at a certain bet level just start over at 1,1?

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You are the man Ellis. I took out my 8 deck random shoe and played this twice and won + 20 both times. Not bad for learning how to play the system in 5 minutes! I hit -10 at one point but skyrocketed back up.

The only thing I don't understand is how it is a 4hi system. I must had done something wrong because I got to a 5 bet. This happened when I was already waiting for 2 players to start betting player again (previously lost the 3). Lost the 2 and 3 bet on bank (which now made me wait for 2 banks before continuing). Picked up where I left off with a 4 and 5 bet on player. Is that correct?

Also what do you recommend the stop loss be? Or maybe at a certain bet level just start over at 1,1?

Well I used to play it with a -20 stop loss because my winning shoes were usually +20. I meant your table bet is seldom more than 4 because if you get to a 6 entry you can oppose it with a 2.

Yeah, the nature of it is your score goes all over the place but overall makes good headway. You want to catch it at a high point and quit.

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Looks interesting. If it kills pretty much everything why haven't we used this skip system from the start? First I've heard of it.

That's probably another reason it makes sense to call it the skip system, why?

Because Ellis skipped it:)

Better learning Late than never I always say...

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Have to think some more about this Skip U1D2M2 approach. Probably need to see how it does in other circumstances. In this ONE shoe, it shows it does OK when there are lots of 2s and 3s with some sporadic 1s. But OTBL is a much better choice for a shoe rich in those events. OTBL wins 20 units in that partial shoe while making just one 4 unit bet (net betting makes three 4 unit bets). Also, how does this net betting approach work with the common TTs? I'm thinking not too good -- lots of consecutive loosing bets. This shoe starts 223 which just screams OTBL. If I see that at the start of the shoe, my mind wouldn't even consider some kind of net betting approach hoping for low disparity -- I'm looking instead to capitalize on the EVENTS. Maybe it's just me?

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Here is a shoe I just played from my 8 deck shoe. Completley random. This is how I interpreted the Skip rules. Please let me know if I made any mistakes. I will take it down if it’s not correct so nobody gets confused.

Obviously this is only a single shoe and results will vary. But you can see that high 2’s clumped together can cause some problems. There was a lot going on in this shoe, but it handles it well. Started off kind of rough, but it held up in the end. I don’t know – maybe somebody can find something meaningful from it.

But this is Ellis’ system! Not mine – he would know more about it.

You will also notice that the MDB+ bets all also would have won. BUT there were 5 2’s without a 3+. It would have won if you waited for 3 2iar’s to start betting.

Good luck at the crawl this weekend everyone!

post-3814-14500262412314_thumb.jpg

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I have also been following this on my shoes ztomsk.... I would have played it the same way you have played it ....

It does make for some interesting play ....... Have only lost 3-shoes out of 15 played . With a stop loss of 20-points....Regular cards out of the box and hand washed ....

I do like the constant action it provides , but hate the draw down when it starts ....it can get very steep very fast .......... I also noticed that if i hit the +20 profit with-in the first 30-40 hands . I'll push it some more ( stop loss of 12 ) , And see if i can take it to 30 or more for profit....

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Have to think some more about this Skip U1D2M2 approach. Probably need to see how it does in other circumstances. In this ONE shoe, it shows it does OK when there are lots of 2s and 3s with some sporadic 1s. But OTBL is a much better choice for a shoe rich in those events. OTBL wins 20 units in that partial shoe while making just one 4 unit bet (net betting makes three 4 unit bets). Also, how does this net betting approach work with the common TTs? I'm thinking not too good -- lots of consecutive loosing bets. This shoe starts 223 which just screams OTBL. If I see that at the start of the shoe, my mind wouldn't even consider some kind of net betting approach hoping for low disparity -- I'm looking instead to capitalize on the EVENTS. Maybe it's just me?

Correct! Net betting is only for when you see no obvious NOR bias which is often true of preshuffled cards. But it is also often untrue. Since preshuffled cards favor random more than regular cards we get more opportunities to net bet and fewer NOR opportunities. But we STILL play NOR in NOR shoes.

ALSO, we don't always play the skip system when net betting. The skip system likes streaky shoes because it takes advantage of both ST and ZZ runs. The mandatory 2 in the skip system is geared to streaks. So is waiting for a 2iar to resume.

But in choppy shoes (+OR count) we are better off net betting a simple 12345 prog with no mandatory 2 and resuming after a single circle. Yes we lose a little on 4 or mores but we kill on 1's and 2's and 3s which are most plentiful in choppy shoes.

In your first example: P131121432122221112 the OR count runs mostly plus and finishes +3. Here you want to net bet a simple 12345 prog with no mandatory 2 U1D2. You finish at +14 with a worst drawdown of -2 at play 4.

But in your 2nd example 114811124116 the OR count runs mostly minus finishing at -8. THAT is where you want to play the Skip system, which you did play correctly finishing at +23.

To handle the common TT runs PP BB PP BB you always want to slip into your 12345 chop mode if you aren't in that mode already - as you were (should have been) in your first example. Your score was +7 when the TT run began and +12 when it finished. See that?

Net betting is a bit of an art form that takes lots of practice to see what beats what but almost any shoe can be beat net betting.

And we haven't even begun discussing OvR net betting yet.

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Have to think some more about this Skip U1D2M2 approach. Probably need to see how it does in other circumstances. In this ONE shoe, it shows it does OK when there are lots of 2s and 3s with some sporadic 1s. But OTBL is a much better choice for a shoe rich in those events. OTBL wins 20 units in that partial shoe while making just one 4 unit bet (net betting makes three 4 unit bets). Also, how does this net betting approach work with the common TTs? I'm thinking not too good -- lots of consecutive loosing bets. This shoe starts 223 which just screams OTBL. If I see that at the start of the shoe, my mind wouldn't even consider some kind of net betting approach hoping for low disparity -- I'm looking instead to capitalize on the EVENTS. Maybe it's just me?

I agree OTB4L would kill this shoe. Net betting is simple but, risky if you get carried away playing this.

Be a Tracker and Hunt wisely!

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Well, don't forget that we have players at all different levels of learning playing at different stakes.

And don't forget I'm only recommending net betting when no NOR options look good.

way2fast is an excellent MDB+ player and plays for high stakes. In that situation they will usually deal the cards no matter how seldom he bets.

Plus, way2fast has figured out a few additional MDB+ bets and so has Art - both using the same MDB+ mathematics.

We will soon add these bets to the official MDB+ rules.

Art had no problem playing solely MDB+ all day Sunday at a $25 no touch table because there were always at least 3 other players in the game. He won every shoe all day long except the last shoe he played late Sunday afternoon. But Art was playing a $100 unit.

BUT at low stakes tables they might not deal to a low stakes MDB+ player because he doesn't bet enough.

Therefore a low stakes MDB+ player may occassionally need a supplement system that plays most every hand.

His FIRST choice should be a NOR system like OTB4L, TB4L, or S40.

I certainly wished I had also played TB4L in the second shoe Saturday. There were no 2s in the entire shoe making it horrible for MDB+ but excellent for TB4L.

But then Art won a trip total of 17 out of 20 playing strictly MDB+. That is very, very good but it could have been even better if Art had some supplememt systems up his sleve.

What makes a shoe good for MDB+ (randomness) also makes it good for net betting PvB as long as the player knows when to play a 12345 prog (chop) vs when to skip bet (streak).

That is the only reason I mention net betting.

Well and one other reason. For players playing preshuffled cards who are not yet competent with MDB+.

Katchaz demonstrated that proficient net betting also does well with preshuffled cards. Fine, as long as you are a proficient net bettor. But MDB+ is just as easy to learn.

Oh, and for one other player type. Some players simply don't have the patience for MDB+ - sitting there and not betting. Those guys would probably be better off net betting when playing preshuffled cards as long as they are proficient net bettors.

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I would like to see more discussion of the 36 Skip Bet methodology. I've used this about a half dozen times and won with it 4 times. I like this and would really like to see more discussion.

Right, and if you had known when to skip bet vs when to net bet the 12345, you might have won all six.

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