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Mama Told Me ( Not to Come)


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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

All this talk of pre-shuffled/"engineered" shoes...Can it be for-real?

The Band THREE DOG NIGHT HAD THIS ALL FIGURED OUT IN 1970, almost 45 years ago...just ''Google the lyrics" to the song, you'll get it...

Here is a shoe "hot-off-the-press" from the RED ROCK casino in Las Vegas...not even an hour old...

I only play NOR/4D system, so see what Y.O.U. might have done with this one, never going more than a 2-bet...but sitting out when the going get's rough ( another song...don't get me started!)

Reminder 4D records all elements of each hand ( whether played or not, ya' still gotta' write it down...)

B

P

O

R

OTBL

TBL

OO

TT

Here you go...I started with $700 ( 14-$50 units... table minimum I had to ask them to lower from $100)...left with 30 units ($1,500), as this was great ROI to me, and obviously this was what we are referring to a pre-shuffled/engineered ( outcome) shoe ( p.s. that is just speculation, but it WAS pre-shuffled cards, and you know what Ellis has been teaching us...)

Give it a try, one hand at a time...likely many of you "smarties" can do better than me, but r.e.m.i.n.d.e.r...

YOU have the advantage of seeing the whole shoe...I had to play it "one-hand-at-a-time"...with real $50-$100 on the table...

Oh....and......(Not in columns of 20...that's your job!)

B2132136611411124124123113412 ( not including ties)...got down to last few hands, and me up 16 units, time to head-for-the-exits...

( PS- I enjoy a tremendous advantage...the casino is 2 miles down the street...used to have to drive 4+ hours to Biloxi from FL. !!!)

( This is a BIG Advantage, so I admit that EZ come/EZ go access can affect the outcome...)

Purpose of posting this shoe is NOT TO SHOW YOU HOW SMART I AM!

It's to show you what Ellis has been preaching we are collectively "up against"

I choose to approach/attack with my version of NOR/4D...some use SAP, some use MDB+/5-of-a-kind...its all good, but better heed Ellis' advice and stay right-on-top of how/when to switch modes...

- what are the trigger-points?

- when to switch? And why not to...

-oh, and it is not a "switch of systems"...IT IS THE SYSTEM

In any event, give it a try...you will be amazed at how the shoe "hovers" on all 4D ( D=Disparity) aspects, almost beginning to end...

AND BEATING THIS IS WHAT THIS FORUM IS ALL ABOUT...

Kevin

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Hi Kevin,

Great job picking up 16 units with 4D. Mostly focusing my play these days on MD+, which continues to look like a consistent winner with large units. On this shoe there are 5 triggers and each of them wins the first bet in the progression. Make 5 bets; win each one; walk away with $4,850 profit net of commissions. That's even worth the drive out to Red Rock. Haha.

By the way, if you used the OvT as a companion system, you would pick up another 20 units in this shoe. I typically play the companion system at a unit size of 20% of my MDB+ unit, so the companion system would have netted about $3,800 for total of $8,650.

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Way 2 fast...

I get it, and wish all private forum members could play the large units!

3's staying at 3, then switch back to other side for a few-in-a-row

4-or-more's staying same for a few turns-in-the-barrel...then back to "3IAR, then switch'

And OvT, yowzah, this shoe had it going on!

There is hope and reason to believe in what Ellis is espousing...keep your eye on the prize, stay focused and put-together the best of all systems to date and voila!, look what can happen...

Even smaller-unit players can pull up a seat-at-the-table, despite what the casino is serving for dinner....

yum.

But who would have thunk that some long-haired rock band could have hit on this in 1970 ? !?

Now, that is special...

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Way 2 fast...

I get it, and wish all private forum members could play the large units!

Ah, but they can Kevin! I'm playing with a bankroll built up from BTC inspired winnings. Also, playing fewer bets, but VERY HIGH percentage winning bets, allows for bigger units with MDB+.

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

ha,ha,ha,ha,ha!

Got somebody's attention, huh?

"Want some whiskey in your water, sugar in your tea?

What's all these crazy questions you're asking me?"

( Is it the cocktail waitress? you don't know how to play this game?

Or is it Ellis, answering even the most mundane of questions...for the 100th time!?)

"This is the craziest party there could ever be

Don't turn on the lights, 'cause I don't wanna see"

( you been to a casino lately...hardly any windows, no clocks?

uh, madam, you do understand those chips are like real money, right? )

"Open up your window , let some air into this room

I think I'm almost chokin' from the smell of stale perfume

And that cigarette you're smokin', 'bout scared me half to death

Open up the window, sucker, let me catch my breath"

( you been to a table game lately? sorry, but our windows don't open, but...

sure, you can catch your breath on the drive home...after we have all of your money!)

" The radio is blastin', someone's knockin' on the door

I'm lookin' at my girlfriend, she's passed out on the floor"

( TV's front and center, live music or DJ himself? Cocktails, anyone?)

"Mama told me not to come

That ain't the way to have fun, son

That ain't the way to have fun, no"

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AND ALONG CAME DR. E. !!

YES, HE IS OUR REMEDY FOR ALL OF THIS...

And that is why we simply have to collectively put our heads together to beat the casino...

( amazing analogy?

or, Who let the dawgs out?)

Why, it was THREE DOG NIGHT, that's who...almost 45 years ago...think they ever sang this song in a casino ? Not sure...

HA!

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Well, let's get real serious here for a minute. I wish I had had this Kachatz1 shoe last night for the MDB sales meeting.

Here is that shoe in our BTC short cut method:

B21321362

P4114111241

P241231133

P112

It demonstrates the difference between regular and preshuffled cards very nicely and why we need to treat each differently.

That is what the MDB forum is all about. This shoe gives me the opportunity to show you what kinds of things we get into on the MDB forum

and how these insights can greatly improve and greatly expand your overall play while simplifying your play at the same time.

This shoe is very typical of preshuffled cards. How So?

First, P and B run much closer than regular cards.

Second, SAP counts tend to equalize rather than fly apart.

If you were to do a complete SAP count all the way up to 5 or mores (5+s) it would look like this:

12 1's X 1 = 12

* 6 2s X 2 = 12

* 4 3s X 4 = 16

* 2 4s X 8 = 16

* 2 5+ X 8 = 16

See how the weighted totals are so close? This simply doesn't happen with regular cards.

Regular cards have much greater disparity in the SAP totals. SAP is a weighted measurement of bias.

Those totals mean the shoe lacks bias. NOR functions on bias. Therefore NOR is often a poor choice when playing preshuffled.

This means that these cards are running very close to perfectly random -

exactly what the casino wants because they believe random can't be beat.

But random CAN be beat. In fact, whether BJ or Baccarat, random cards are the easiest to beat

AND they can be beat purely mechanically and very simply.

One way is to play SAP backwards. Bet the highest SAP count goes down while the lowest goes up. You are essentially betting

the game goes toward normal rather than away from normal. That is something we will be getting into on the MDB forum.

Sure, MDB+ will beat this shoe just like it beats virtually all preshuffled cards.

But I can't discuss that system on this forum.

But lets look at a simple way already thoroughly discussed on the MDB forum:

PvB Net Bet 36 U1D2M2. Unlike NOR this system loves random cards.

Don't get me wrong. NOR is still the best way there is for regular cards - just not every single shoe.

On the MDB forum we'll teach you the brand new OT system that beats regular cards when NOR is weak.

But the shoe in question here is preshuffled cards and therefore close to random.

So I select PvB NB because P and B are running close per usual with preshuffled cards.

The 1st column PvB is 8v12; 2nd col 11v9; 3rd col; 10v10 and the 4th col is insignificant.

I select NB 36 because the shoe is streaky - the OR count runs negative right off the bat.

I can start at play 1 because I do not yet need to decide which of our 2 PvB systems is best.

I make that decision at play 6 - my first 3 entry.

The OR count is minus at that point telling me to play NB36.

And the OR count stays minus so I stick with NB 36.

If it was positive, I would select NB 1-5.

So how do we play NB 36?

We bet U1D2M2 straight down our card stopping at 3 or 6 entries and waiting for a 2iar on that side to continue betting.

That's it - ONE rule completely mechanical and totally simple.

Here is what the kachatz shoe looks like played PvB NB36 purely mechanically right from the MDB forum:

post-8-14500262497476_thumb.jpg

BTW, I didn't need the PvB or OR or SAP counts on my card. I just put them there so you could follow

my system selection decision making. Everything was decided at play 6.

So is this the best way MDB members could play this shoe?

Well no, as good as it is.

I teach MDB players to pay attention to high OR counts whether they be plus or minus.

Anytime we see lots of straight runs on a tote board or lots of ZZ runs on a tote board or a table (they are very obvious) we are looking at opportunity. And this is true whether preshuffled or regular cards.

We drop all systems and simply bet Repeats or Opposites whichever the case may be.

You can't get any simpler than that.

Except for plays 4 and 9 this shoe is minus OR all the way. Now maybe this table has been streaky right along so we already knew before the shoe started. But surely we know by the second early 3iar and for sure, somewhere during the first 6iar. We either started right out betting Repeats or we drop everything and switch to Repeats during the 6 iar.

What's the best prog to use?

U1D2M2

Why? Becuse the M2 gives us a big advantage on runs.

So how would this look? I'll show you.

post-8-14500262500733_thumb.jpg

So that should give you some idea of the discussion on the MDB forum.

Sure, it is advanced Baccarat!

But it is also simplified purely mechanical Baccarat ANYONE can learn

AND we can beat preshuffled cards to boot.

See what you are missing? Anyone wanting to join the MDB forum

can use our automated sign up system or call me personally. 901 405 1723.

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Right Steve. NB U1D1 works out great if P and B end up relatively equal like they did here.

But that is mostly a luck thing. And luck can go bad.

NB 36 U1D2 eats up a LOT of disparity and is FAR safer to play with fewer drawdowns.

Anyway, good job of shoe posting!

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

Wish I knew how to post like SteveO!

( don't we all???????????)

Most important is we got dialog going member-2-member, with real-life situations....

T.H.A.T. is the "value quotient" this forum...

Anyone on the sidelines, thinking ForumMembership is too rich for them, 'going to find out real-soon the how to s.t.r.e.t.c.h... a dollar into $10...into $50..into $500

We all want to "have-our-cake, and-eat-it 2"

Get on Board THE LOVE TRAIN....

( make it the best financial decision you ever made...)

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
Well, let's get real serious here for a minute. I wish I had had this Kachatz1 shoe last night for the MDB sales meeting.

Here is that shoe in our BTC short cut method:

B21321362

P4114111241

P241231133

P112

It demonstrates the difference between regular and preshuffled cards very nicely and why we need to treat each differently.

That is what the MDB forum is all about. This shoe gives me the opportunity to show you what kinds of things we get into on the MDB forum

and how these insights can greatly improve and greatly expand your overall play while simplifying your play at the same time.

This shoe is very typical of preshuffled cards. How So?

First, P and B run much closer than regular cards.

Second, SAP counts tend to equalize rather than fly apart.

If you were to do a complete SAP count all the way up to 5 or mores (5+s) it would look like this:

12 1's X 1 = 12

* 6 2s X 2 = 12

* 4 3s X 4 = 16

* 2 4s X 8 = 16

* 2 5+ X 8 = 16

See how the weighted totals are so close? This simply doesn't happen with regular cards.

Regular cards have much greater disparity in the SAP totals. SAP is a weighted measurement of bias.

Those totals mean the shoe lacks bias. NOR functions on bias. Therefore NOR is often a poor choice when playing preshuffled.

This means that these cards are running very close to perfectly random -

exactly what the casino wants because they believe random can't be beat.

But random CAN be beat. In fact, whether BJ or Baccarat, random cards are the easiest to beat

AND they can be beat purely mechanically and very simply.

One way is to play SAP backwards. Bet the highest SAP count goes down while the lowest goes up. You are essentially betting

the game goes toward normal rather than away from normal. That is something we will be getting into on the MDB forum.

Sure, MDB+ will beat this shoe just like it beats virtually all preshuffled cards.

But I can't discuss that system on this forum.

But lets look at a simple way already thoroughly discussed on the MDB forum:

PvB Net Bet 36 U1D2M2. Unlike NOR this system loves random cards.

Don't get me wrong. NOR is still the best way there is for regular cards - just not every single shoe.

On the MDB forum we'll teach you the brand new OT system that beats regular cards when NOR is weak.

But the shoe in question here is preshuffled cards and therefore close to random.

So I select PvB NB because P and B are running close per usual with preshuffled cards.

The 1st column PvB is 8v12; 2nd col 11v9; 3rd col; 10v10 and the 4th col is insignificant.

I select NB 36 because the shoe is streaky - the OR count runs negative right off the bat.

I can start at play 1 because I do not yet need to decide which of our 2 PvB systems is best.

I make that decision at play 6 - my first 3 entry.

The OR count is minus at that point telling me to play NB36.

And the OR count stays minus so I stick with NB 36.

If it was positive, I would select NB 1-5.

So how do we play NB 36?

We bet U1D2M2 straight down our card stopping at 3 or 6 entries and waiting for a 2iar on that side to continue betting.

That's it - ONE rule completely mechanical and totally simple.

Here is what the kachatz shoe looks like played PvB NB36 purely mechanically right from the MDB forum:

[ATTACH]3122[/ATTACH]

BTW, I didn't need the PvB or OR or SAP counts on my card. I just put them there so you could follow

my system selection decision making. Everything was decided at play 6.

So is this the best way MDB members could play this shoe?

Well no, as good as it is.

I teach MDB players to pay attention to high OR counts whether they be plus or minus.

Anytime we see lots of straight runs on a tote board or lots of ZZ runs on a tote board or a table (they are very obvious) we are looking at opportunity. And this is true whether preshuffled or regular cards.

We drop all systems and simply bet Repeats or Opposites whichever the case may be.

You can't get any simpler than that.

Except for plays 4 and 9 this shoe is minus OR all the way. Now maybe this table has been streaky right along so we already knew before the shoe started. But surely we know by the second early 3iar and for sure, somewhere during the first 6iar. We either started right out betting Repeats or we drop everything and switch to Repeats during the 6 iar.

What's the best prog to use?

U1D2M2

Why? Becuse the M2 gives us a big advantage on runs.

So how would this look? I'll show you.

[ATTACH]3124[/ATTACH]

So that should give you some idea of the discussion on the MDB forum.

Sure, it is advanced Baccarat!

But it is also simplified purely mechanical Baccarat ANYONE can learn

AND we can beat preshuffled cards to boot.

See what you are missing? Anyone wanting to join the MDB forum

can use our automated sign up system or call me personally. 901 405 1723.

"I WISH I HAD HAD THIS KACHATZ1 SHOE LAST NIGHT FOR THE MDB SALES MEETiNG"

Ellis, give me an address and I'll send you the exact card....

Kevin

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"I WISH I HAD HAD THIS KACHATZ1 SHOE LAST NIGHT FOR THE MDB SALES MEETiNG"

Ellis, give me an address and I'll send you the exact card....

Kevin

Thanks Kevin But I don't see why I would need it as long as I got the shoe right???

But I meant to mention that Kevin was the first to realize that preshuffled cards are very very often very susceptible to Net Betting.

In fact Kevin was the first to mention U1D1. Het 10 heads are a whole lot better than one.

Look, if you are noting that P & B are always running close at the table or even at the casino you are playing then by all means EXPLOIT with U1D1.

Steveo just showed you what can happen. You can go clear to +40 sometimes.

I would strongly suggest U1D1M2 because it is usually safer and it reduces drawdowns yet usually scores even higher as impossible as that may sound. Maybe we can get Kevin or Steve or anybody to try it that way and post the result. Kevin, you can post the score even if you can't post the shoe.

BTW, if anyone wants to learn how to post a shoe like I did, Call me and we can do it together over the phone. (901 405 1723).

Just be sure you have a scanner and a scanning system in your computer. If you don't, I think HP has the best and you can download it for free.

I like to post shoes played out that way because it so closely resembles your casino score card - hopfully.

But RECOGNIZE that not all casinos with preshuffled cards will have P and B runningt so close.

At the moment at least, Vegas seems to think that this random shoe type is in their best interest. And that makes perfect sense because shoes heavy on one side are easy for street players to beat.

But other casinos have other strategies. Remember, preshuffled started out fixed. A casino can produce ANY shoe type they want. California preshuffled may be totally different from Vegas preshuffled for instance.

So before you jump to Net Betting, make sure either PvB or OvR are running close. Mandatory 2 and Down 2 eat up a lot of disparity. So if your columns of 20 are running 8 v12 or closer, that's close enough.

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Ellis,

You mentioned NB 1-5, how is that played?

Dennis

It is on the MDB forum. It is our net bet system for choppy shoes. For streaky shoes we use NB36.

NB 1-5 We are net betting PvB. Start right at play 1 with 1 vs 1.

Bet U1D2 a 12345 wait for a circle 6.

Other than that it is normal net betting.

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