Jump to content

Webinar Proposal for Ellis & All BTC Members


Recommended Posts

Ellis

I was looking over our past post exchanges in the other thread, and realized that, although I feel the criticisms are valid and justified, they do nothing to resolve my or anyone else desires. It is just a self-indulgent exercise to complain if you have no possible solutions to offer.

I have received PM's and direct emails that have all, privately, supported my contention that you are doing BTC members a disservice when all you do is take a posted shoe and say "Here is how I would have played it", because that leaves out the all important WHY? If you look back on any number of your own posts, about what you were going to do when the new systems were introduced, you promised with MDB, OvT and others that you would post annotated play by play shoes listing the bets made, why, what might trigger a switch, etc. Except in a few cases when you posted a new system example, you have not done that.

Now, I am aware of your health issues, and the type of work involved in that kind of tedious "Lesson Preparation" may not really be doable for you at this point. So here is what I would like to suggest as a possible solution that benefits everyone.

Why don't you and Steve (or Keith) collaborate and put together a webinar that strictly follows these proposed ground rules:

1) No system teaching - If someone doesn't know a system, they need to learn it on their own time.

2) No questions (absolutely none for any reason) allowed during the webinar - No one but Ellis (including his seminar partner) takes up any teaching time during the webinar - Any questions can be asked on a follow-up thread after the webinar is over in a separate, private thread. Additionally, the webinar could be recorded and put in this private thread for the webinar attendees to review and for anyone else who would pay for access to this thread to see in the future.

3) Neither you or any other webinar presenter asking participants how they might play a shoe situation. This would be all about your (Ellis) thought processes only.

4) All shoes played all the way through until the end without Stop Wins or Stop Losses.

5) The webinar would be all inclusive covering everything on BTC except the 4D (ie: NOR, Net Betting, OvT, MDB with SAP, and MDB+)

This is a webinar that I would be willing to shell out a couple of hundred bucks, putting, as they say, "My money where my mouth is." I want a webinar where you, Ellis, play live, computer generated shoes blind (I do not care whether they would be representative or not) using all the BTC Systems. What I would want to see, and hear, in this webinar, is two shoes (about 150 hands) played for each BTC system. That would be a total of ten shoes to play and would probably take about a 6 hour webinar with breaks. It could be done in two shorter session, over two days, if you felt that a continuous 6 hours might be too much for you.

The way I see it is that you would start a shoe, blind from the beginning. I know you do not like going into a shoe blind, and prefer to see game biases first, but this whole webinar would be about "Process" not about winning. Steve, or any other seminar presenter could handle the on-line game play and marking the webinar scorecard for participants to view and do the video recording.

What I want to see you do is explain verbally, in detail, the game as each hand is dealt:

a) When you decided to start the shoe with the system you are demonstrating and why.

B) What play, bet you will be making for the next hand, before it is dealt.

c) What you are seeing from the shoe pattern and what it indicates to you.

d) Since you are going to play every shoe all the way through, when (and I hope that will happen) a particular system gets in trouble, when and why you would consider a system switch, mid-shoe to something else. No shoe exits allowed and I do realize a shoe could be "perfect" for the system you chose which would not allow you to really demonstrate how you think, but I would be willing to take that chance.

e) Play by Play commentary on what "YOU" are seeing in the shoe (Counts, Patterns, Least Events, Most Events, etc.) that are being used in your decision making process-In sports terms, they would call this a "Play by Play Commentary."

Basically, I do not care whether each shoe turned out to be +100 or -100 units when it ends. Actually, personally, I would prefer to see at least one (preferably more) absolutely disastrous shoe, an example of such might be an OvT shoe where you had a dozen switch signals, none of which really worked . We would all be able to see that this is a shoe that should not have been played, but we would also all benefit from seeing the process you were using in determining switches, even if they failed.

What I am really looking for is the Baccarat Master (you) showing his Disciples (BTC members), the thought processes you go through while you are actually playing live, not after the fact. I want to see, in real time, how you think your way through a shoe. I doubt I would ever be able to duplicate it, but just watching you do it would go a long way to helping developing my own (and others) way of looking at a unfolding shoe. And Ellis, you would have to basically swear that you would adhere to the proposed ground rules religiously. Unfortunately, at most of the seminars I attended (and I have been at all the LV Baccarat ones since 2011) you have allowed yourself to get drawn "Off Track", told amusing stories and discussed what the casinos are doing, etc. This was always interesting, however, what you were suppose to be teaching never seemed to get covered in any meaningful way.

Now, I may be the only member who would be willing to pay for this type of experience, but I do not think so. But, then, what do I know? At this point, I need some help from the other BTC members. If Ellis is going to do something like this, then it has to be worthwhile to him. If this is a webinar you would be willing to pay for and attend, please post your interest on this thread. There are 26 spaces available on the Go To meeting software (25 after me), and if BTC members are willing to fill a webinar up, at a reasonable price for both sides, (I would propose $200 per participant and you would have to be a MDB member (Ellis, this amount is only proposed and is obviously negotiable)) that would be a good payday for Ellis and, I believe, an incredible learning experience for the rest of us.

If it turns out the I am only one of a few BTC members who would want to attend this type of demonstration, then I realize it would not be worth Ellis time to do it. In that case, I guess, I, for one, will always regret never having been able to have that kind of experience before Ellis leaves us for good. Please let Ellis know what you think!

Most Important: Ellis what do you think?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm more than happy with my play ATM...but I too, would be interested in the machinations of the mind of "The Great One". I'm not taking the piss here...Ellis, truly has changed the lives of me and my family, for the better.

I don't much care what it costs...I'm certain that it would be worth it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ellis

I was looking over our past post exchanges in the other thread, and realized that, although I feel the criticisms are valid and justified, they do nothing to resolve my or anyone else desires. It is just a self-indulgent exercise to complain if you have no possible solutions to offer.

I have received PM's and direct emails that have all, privately, supported my contention that you are doing BTC members a disservice when all you do is take a posted shoe and say "Here is how I would have played it", because that leaves out the all important WHY? If you look back on any number of your own posts, about what you were going to do when the new systems were introduced, you promised with MDB, OvT and others that you would post annotated play by play shoes listing the bets made, why, what might trigger a switch, etc. Except in a few cases when you posted a new system example, you have not done that.

Now, I am aware of your health issues, and the type of work involved in that kind of tedious "Lesson Preparation" may not really be doable for you at this point. So here is what I would like to suggest as a possible solution that benefits everyone.

Why don't you and Steve (or Keith) collaborate and put together a webinar that strictly follows these proposed ground rules:

1) No system teaching - If someone doesn't know a system, they need to learn it on their own time.

2) No questions (absolutely none for any reason) allowed during the webinar - No one but Ellis (including his seminar partner) takes up any teaching time during the webinar - Any questions can be asked on a follow-up thread after the webinar is over in a separate, private thread. Additionally, the webinar could be recorded and put in this private thread for the webinar attendees to review and for anyone else who would pay for access to this thread to see in the future.

3) Neither you or any other webinar presenter asking participants how they might play a shoe situation. This would be all about your (Ellis) thought processes only.

4) All shoes played all the way through until the end without Stop Wins or Stop Losses.

5) The webinar would be all inclusive covering everything on BTC except the 4D (ie: NOR, Net Betting, OvT, MDB with SAP, and MDB+)

This is a webinar that I would be willing to shell out a couple of hundred bucks, putting, as they say, "My money where my mouth is." I want a webinar where you, Ellis, play live, computer generated shoes blind (I do not care whether they would be representative or not) using all the BTC Systems. What I would want to see, and hear, in this webinar, is two shoes (about 150 hands) played for each BTC system. That would be a total of ten shoes to play and would probably take about a 6 hour webinar with breaks. It could be done in two shorter session, over two days, if you felt that a continuous 6 hours might be too much for you.

The way I see it is that you would start a shoe, blind from the beginning. I know you do not like going into a shoe blind, and prefer to see game biases first, but this whole webinar would be about "Process" not about winning. Steve, or any other seminar presenter could handle the on-line game play and marking the webinar scorecard for participants to view and do the video recording.

What I want to see you do is explain verbally, in detail, the game as each hand is dealt:

a) When you decided to start the shoe with the system you are demonstrating and why.

B) What play, bet you will be making for the next hand, before it is dealt.

c) What you are seeing from the shoe pattern and what it indicates to you.

d) Since you are going to play every shoe all the way through, when (and I hope that will happen) a particular system gets in trouble, when and why you would consider a system switch, mid-shoe to something else. No shoe exits allowed and I do realize a shoe could be "perfect" for the system you chose which would not allow you to really demonstrate how you think, but I would be willing to take that chance.

e) Play by Play commentary on what "YOU" are seeing in the shoe (Counts, Patterns, Least Events, Most Events, etc.) that are being used in your decision making process-In sports terms, they would call this a "Play by Play Commentary."

Basically, I do not care whether each shoe turned out to be +100 or -100 units when it ends. Actually, personally, I would prefer to see at least one (preferably more) absolutely disastrous shoe, an example of such might be an OvT shoe where you had a dozen switch signals, none of which really worked . We would all be able to see that this is a shoe that should not have been played, but we would also all benefit from seeing the process you were using in determining switches, even if they failed.

What I am really looking for is the Baccarat Master (you) showing his Disciples (BTC members), the thought processes you go through while you are actually playing live, not after the fact. I want to see, in real time, how you think your way through a shoe. I doubt I would ever be able to duplicate it, but just watching you do it would go a long way to helping developing my own (and others) way of looking at a unfolding shoe. And Ellis, you would have to basically swear that you would adhere to the proposed ground rules religiously. Unfortunately, at most of the seminars I attended (and I have been at all the LV Baccarat ones since 2011) you have allowed yourself to get drawn "Off Track", told amusing stories and discussed what the casinos are doing, etc. This was always interesting, however, what you were suppose to be teaching never seemed to get covered in any meaningful way.

Now, I may be the only member who would be willing to pay for this type of experience, but I do not think so. But, then, what do I know? At this point, I need some help from the other BTC members. If Ellis is going to do something like this, then it has to be worthwhile to him. If this is a webinar you would be willing to pay for and attend, please post your interest on this thread. There are 26 spaces available on the Go To meeting software (25 after me), and if BTC members are willing to fill a webinar up, at a reasonable price for both sides, (I would propose $200 per participant and you would have to be a MDB member (Ellis, this amount is only proposed and is obviously negotiable)) that would be a good payday for Ellis and, I believe, an incredible learning experience for the rest of us.

If it turns out the I am only one of a few BTC members who would want to attend this type of demonstration, then I realize it would not be worth Ellis time to do it. In that case, I guess, I, for one, will always regret never having been able to have that kind of experience before Ellis leaves us for good. Please let Ellis know what you think!

Most Important: Ellis what do you think?

Hmm, Well I used to do a reasonable facsimile of this after every Baccarat seminar, perhaps 2 or 300 times and I won every time, not always every shoe, mind you but definitely every session - sometimes I had to change tables but usually not.

I won every time, that is, right up until casinos came up with preshuffled cards. That literally threw me for a loop at first and I failed for the first time at Sands Bethlehem and then in Vegas.

That is how I knew for sure that we needed a whole new way to beat preshuffled cards - hence, MDB+.

Mark, you don't mention in your well planned proposal whether we are talking regular or preshuffled cards.

But since MDB+ is so purely mechanical, I'm guessing you are wanting to see this for regular cards or perhaps even both, separately.

So, for the moment, lets talk regular cards.

Next, I'm not sure why you would demand that a shoe be played from the beginning and to the end as I would usually do neither in actual play:

I think a better solution for the end of play is to tell you where I would quit and why I would quite at that point. Then I could play out the shoe to see just how good my quite point decision was.

I never start betting at the first play but if forced to start betting at play 3 I would start the shoe a certain way and then go from there.

Next, the shoe would have to be from someplace.

If it were a live internet shoe, I would need to play it at casino pace and then do the play by play explanations afterward. Just as, in a real casino I cannot explain what I'm doing while I'm doing it - there's no time for that.

Playing a shoe someone selected is not realistic because it has been taken out of context of the casino setting. In a real casino, I would kow what the tote board said so far and I could either accept or reject that table already knowing what to play.

Or, it I had already been playing that table, I would know what the blue shoe is doing and what the red shoe is doing.

Under real conditions nobody is ever playing completely in the blind - at least I'm not.

So the question is, how do you propose we set up realistic conditions??? for this experiment. I can't play a shoe handed to me out of the blue much better than anyone else can. Fortunately we are never forced to play that way, except perhaps at home on our kitchen table. You always have at least some idea of what's going on. Otherwise, why would you play???

That is exactly why I don't play the internet - you have virtually no history to go on. You have 3 strikes against you before you start.

So, as good as it is, I think your proposal needs a little work.

For instance at Sands, eventually I learned two things:

1.) That they were using preshuffled cards - something that heretofore had been illegal in the state of Pa. And

2.) That none of their 70 some tote boards had a single run longer than 6. THAT information ended up saving the day.

But at significant cost starting out. Ended up playing catch up all night long because our initial information was fatally flawed.

So, I think your proposal, while well intended, needs significant work. We are simply NEVER forced to play under the conditions you are proposing. It simply isn't realistic, at least so far.

So how would you propose we could make it realistic and therefore worth while? Anybody?

So far, it's like saying: We want to see your qualifications as a quarterback so we are putting you in this game and BTW you aren't allowed to run or throw.

Edited by Ellis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ellis

I understand your concerns, but this is one of those examples of looking at something from two completely different directions. You are looking at it in terms of how you would play particular conditions and whether or not you could win a particular shoe. And, possibly, as you say, you might not do better than anyone else, playing shoes blind. But, the seminar I proposed is not about whether the shoe is won or lost, would be all about the way you think when looking at a shoe.

What germinated this idea was when a group of us, during the baccarat crawl, were watching you play at the Caesar's Big Bac table. You made a MDB+ bet that seemed to be inexplicable to us. There were 8 of us in the group I was in, and none of us could figure out why you made the bet. Obviously, there would have been no way for you to describe your WHY in those conditions, but THAT is what we wanted to know.

You response focused on MDB+, but if you look at the proposal, it was based on your playing 2 shoes of EVERY BTC system (NOR, Net Betting, OvT, MDB with SAP, MDB+) And part of your response nailed it when you said that you would need to play a casino speed so that you could narrate each play.

I see no problem with that. But, if you are going to be able to properly evaluate, and implement, the proposal, you have to STOP thinking in terms of "Winning." You have to realize that this would be all about demonstrating your "Thinking Process" and that is what I, and others would be paying to see.

What I don't think you realize is that what comes intuitively for you is not that way for most of the rest of us. When you approach a shoe so that you can "Win" it, that is great in a money environment where that is the purpose. It is not, however, a very good teaching tool. Think back to your days teaching statistics. You did not throw a complex formula on the blackboard, with the answer already calculated, and tell your students "This is how it's done." and move on to the next topic. You broke the equation down into it's components, explained each one, how they worked together, where they came from and finally, after all that you solved it. The you told your students to try it on their own. That is the webinar version of what I am looking for. And, I don't care about realistic conditions, in fact, for me, the more unrealistic the better. This would be a version of the philosophy question: "If a tree falls in a forest, and nobody hears it, does it make a sound?" Is this a ridiculous question probably so. But, it has been the basis of teaching the "THINKING PROCESS" in Philosophy for decades and it works in starting to teach people, not how to DO something, but how to THINK about it. That is what I am proposing.

Look, if you don't want to do it, or wouldn't feel comfortable doing it, I can understand that. However, if you try to change this into a "I'll teach you how to win" webinar, then I, for one, am not interested. We have had many of those, and they have all left me mostly unsatisfied. That is why I dreamed up those very restrictive ground rules. I want to watch you explain how you think as you go through shoes, unrealistic losers preferably, in which you have no better clue as to what is coming then we do. If it can't be done, so be it. Not all seeds fall on fertile ground

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well OK. I'm not real sure why you would want to do this but its fine by me.

Playing MDB+ at the crawl I was just following the posted MDB+rules. I think you are referring to that shoe that had no 2's. If so, I probably made a bet after 2 3s that the next 2 would stay 2 which it didn't. I should have simply played TB4L since it was a perfect TB4L shoe. But I was playing other people's money who I had promised to play MDB+. That was the mistake. It was a stupid promise.

So, OK who is going to pick a shoe and call it out for me and do you want to play regular or preshuffled?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Keith

Exactly when in November? I would love to play at Stadium Gaming with you and Steve, but family obligations are going to keep me out of LV for a good part of November. I was actually not planning to play during the month, but if I knew, in advance, when you two are coming I would try to arrange my schedule around it. Having someone to converse with, while waiting for the betting opportunities, would be a welcome change from my usual boredom.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ellis

I understand your concerns, but this is one of those examples of looking at something from two completely different directions. You are looking at it in terms of how you would play particular conditions and whether or not you could win a particular shoe. And, possibly, as you say, you might not do better than anyone else, playing shoes blind. But, the seminar I proposed is not about whether the shoe is won or lost, would be all about the way you think when looking at a shoe.

What germinated this idea was when a group of us, during the baccarat crawl, were watching you play at the Caesar's Big Bac table. You made a MDB+ bet that seemed to be inexplicable to us. There were 8 of us in the group I was in, and none of us could figure out why you made the bet. Obviously, there would have been no way for you to describe your WHY in those conditions, but THAT is what we wanted to know.

You response focused on MDB+, but if you look at the proposal, it was based on your playing 2 shoes of EVERY BTC system (NOR, Net Betting, OvT, MDB with SAP, MDB+) And part of your response nailed it when you said that you would need to play a casino speed so that you could narrate each play.

I see no problem with that. But, if you are going to be able to properly evaluate, and implement, the proposal, you have to STOP thinking in terms of "Winning." You have to realize that this would be all about demonstrating your "Thinking Process" and that is what I, and others would be paying to see.

What I don't think you realize is that what comes intuitively for you is not that way for most of the rest of us. When you approach a shoe so that you can "Win" it, that is great in a money environment where that is the purpose. It is not, however, a very good teaching tool. Think back to your days teaching statistics. You did not throw a complex formula on the blackboard, with the answer already calculated, and tell your students "This is how it's done." and move on to the next topic. You broke the equation down into it's components, explained each one, how they worked together, where they came from and finally, after all that you solved it. The you told your students to try it on their own. That is the webinar version of what I am looking for. And, I don't care about realistic conditions, in fact, for me, the more unrealistic the better. This would be a version of the philosophy question: "If a tree falls in a forest, and nobody hears it, does it make a sound?" Is this a ridiculous question probably so. But, it has been the basis of teaching the "THINKING PROCESS" in Philosophy for decades and it works in starting to teach people, not how to DO something, but how to THINK about it. That is what I am proposing.

Look, if you don't want to do it, or wouldn't feel comfortable doing it, I can understand that. However, if you try to change this into a "I'll teach you how to win" webinar, then I, for one, am not interested. We have had many of those, and they have all left me mostly unsatisfied. That is why I dreamed up those very restrictive ground rules. I want to watch you explain how you think as you go through shoes, unrealistic losers preferably, in which you have no better clue as to what is coming then we do. If it can't be done, so be it. Not all seeds fall on fertile ground

OK, we will do this if that is what you guys want to see. In fact we will do just about anything you guys want. All you need do is tell me what you want - which is what Speculator is doing. And I'm assuming that Spec is speaking for everyone.

I'm not sure about the time requirements because we have never tried this format before - but whatever it takes, that's what we will do.

20 shoes in 6 hours with play by play explanations sounds a lot to me. No on line casino deals anywhere near that fast. But they deal the cards whether I'm finished with my explanation or not. Some plays are obvious but others require more explanation than the time allotted.

Plus, I can't play and explain at the same time. It's sorta like trying to explain your golf swing while you are swinging. Even Jack can't do that.

I'm thinking it would go a whole lot smoother if someone other than me dictates the shoes to us one play at a time so we can freely move along at our own pace. I don't see that as a problem. Does anyone? And with this format, I don't see where it makes much difference where the shoes come from. Does anyone?

Intuition! Ha, my intuition sucks. I never use intuition in a casino. It might seem that way watching me play, but I'm not.

Everything I do is based on something concrete. Except in cases of extreme chop or extreme repeats, everything I do is based on SAP for system selection and shoe history for mode selection. Therefore everything I do is fully explainable for reasons OTHER than intuition. And that is perhaps what makes this Webinar format so interesting.

The only thing I see missing from this format is casino conditions. We are talking 5 different BTC approaches. Normally I would select my approach judging first from the general casino conditions prevailing and second from the shoe itself. With this format, I'm locked into an approach W/O benefit of casino conditions or toteboard consulting. Nevertheless, if that is what you want, that is what I'll do. We just have to bear in mind that this format is about how to play a given approach rather than how to select an approach. Therefore results need to be taken with a grain of salt.

For example, I would not normally consider MDB+ against regular cards. Nevertheless, for our purposes here, I'll play it against whatever shoe gets dictated to me. Because our purpose here is HOW to play it oblivious to whether it SHOULD be played against the shoe at hand or not.

I'm hoping everyone fully understands that. But I know that some will only be there to judge results rather than methodology. And results is not our purpose here.

Also, even though I'll play every shoe to the end, I'll let you know where I would have got out, as I always do.

So, OK, that's our lesson plan starting point. Does anyone want to make any further recommendations?

I'm hearing a lot from Speculator but not much from anyone else??? - other than let's do it.

Price? I'm thinking $200 since we have to set a price before we know how long this might take. I'm thinking we will be very hard pressed to finish this in one day - but I could be wrong about that. I'm thinking 20 shoes would take an on line casino about 24 hours to deal.

Edited by Ellis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I guess I will be casting the lone dissenting vote. I can't see how this Webinar, under the prescribed rules, can be of any use to me. I would never play this way and can see no use in following the instructions of one who is playing this way...and definitely not at $200 a pop. Just my 2 cents.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Ellis

As you say, this is just my opinion and it will require a bunch more BTC members who want to see it to make it work. Just 2 clarifications:

1) You would only be playing Ten (10) shoes, two for each of the five different BTC systems that are currently in the arsenal.

2) I do not think using a live, dealer dealt, web shoe would work for this. What I was proposing would use something like the Wizard of Odds Baccarat game, or one of the other free on-line casino games where the player controls the pace of the deal. (Steve does it that way in his webinars). I realize that these are random number generated shoes, but for this type of demonstration, I don't think that would matter.

3) Although the system for demonstrating a particular shoe would be preselected, we could agree on a certain number of "free" hands, before you decided how you wanted to start the system. My experience, playing solo, is that most LV casinos balk at anything over 5 free hands at the beginning of a shoe.

If it looks like enough BTC players are interested in this type of seminar, then I can boil down my posts into a specific set of ground rules, without the explanation verbiage, that everyone can have a say in refining. At that point, you could go ahead and schedule the seminar.

If you don't get enough participation, then, even though I will regret missing the opportunity, I will understand. It has to be worth your time and effort.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha, right 2 x 5 =10. I have trouble when we get all the way up to 2 digit numbers.

And right again, we could use an RG site to dictate the shoes. I wouldn't have thought of that.

Right, Steve is using an RG for MDB+ since the system is designed for random cards.

I'm more real casino oriented.

It would be interesting if we found that MDB+ always beats RGs!

Edited by Ellis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm thinking that group playing an on line casino for real might be more appealing for most members.

But I can't figure out how to make any money that way or gain any members.

I was supposed to play some 5 dimes shoes with Keith this weekend but I haven't heard anything from him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi Ellis

As you say, this is just my opinion and it will require a bunch more BTC members who want to see it to make it work. Just 2 clarifications:

1) You would only be playing Ten (10) shoes, two for each of the five different BTC systems that are currently in the arsenal.

2) I do not think using a live, dealer dealt, web shoe would work for this. What I was proposing would use something like the Wizard of Odds Baccarat game, or one of the other free on-line casino games where the player controls the pace of the deal. (Steve does it that way in his webinars). I realize that these are random number generated shoes, but for this type of demonstration, I don't think that would matter.

3) Although the system for demonstrating a particular shoe would be preselected, we could agree on a certain number of "free" hands, before you decided how you wanted to start the system. My experience, playing solo, is that most LV casinos balk at anything over 5 free hands at the beginning of a shoe.

If it looks like enough BTC players are interested in this type of seminar, then I can boil down my posts into a specific set of ground rules, without the explanation verbiage, that everyone can have a say in refining. At that point, you could go ahead and schedule the seminar.

If you don't get enough participation, then, even though I will regret missing the opportunity, I will understand. It has to be worth your time and effort.

I fully concur...

I also fully realise that not everyone is in the same situation...but for me...$200 for several hours of teaching directly from the "Best there has ever been" is cheap as chips (no pun intended)

Let's get this in perspective...I paid $50/hour for several years to get my daughter tutored...I pay $80/hour to get my grass slashed...my damn plumber charges $80 call out fee before he gets out of his van and then $80/hour (we won't talk about travelling time GRRR) ... my solicitor charges $180/hour to keep me out of gaol (for most likely me murdering my plumber)...my accountant (who never leaves his house) $120/hour (and I still cop direct calls from the Tax Department)...and even a damn painter wants to charge me $70/hour to paint my house (approx 8 weeks work when he bothers to turn up)

So...what's it gonna cost us for the benefit of several hours of Ellis's time?...effectively $20 - $40/hour...GO FIGURE!

If you don't believe it will benefit you personally to utilise this teaching tool, then that's fair enough (I am sort of in that boat...but I can't be sure and for the sake of the price of a half decent meal in a restaurant, I am not prepared to risk missing out on what might be a vital piece of missing information to further improve my play)

But if it's the cost alone....then seriously...you should scrap any thoughts of playing Baccarat as a professional and consider playing Bingo at your local church hall

Just my 2 cents worth

Oz

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forcing you to play a shoe without letting the shoe tell you how to play it would seem to be worthless. If the object of the session is to learn why something was done then the shoe has to tell us how to play. Playing a shoe with a hand by hand explanation seems to be better then forcing you to play a shoe by a set system. The only thing I think you would learn is why the system you are being forced to use is the wrong system. Just a thought.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hi All,

Great work, great idea Spec!

Count me in.

I whole heartedly endorse the concept.

I just hope that we can manage the time differences as we are all placed across a global network that suffers from time zone challenges. Seeing as there'd be no questions then maybe it can be recorded for the convenience of others who are asleep when you're at peak playing conditions.

Also, I think Ellis' idea of having someone deal out shoes instead of being too closely linked to casino timings (some of which are too damn slow and some of which are too damn FAST!). Can someone not just secure the required amount of live shoes from casinos and then 're-deal' them to Ellis? Still real shoes, but just dealt under our classroom conditions.

Can I also just say that why I think that this is so valuable, is because I think that Ellis is a genius. I think that he has internalised a lot of the lessons and distinctions that make him so great at this field. The problem with that is that genius' can't always verbalise what made them think or act in a particular fashion. It's unconscious. Recreating a demand scenario is not about the outcome it's about starting to map out the thought processes that will make it unconscious for all of us and what will result in a cadre of better players. I think that this exercise, which you might dub as "Advanced Bacc Mental Mapping" might be the singularly most valuable lesson Ellis has given.

I think that the reason that Ellis will often break into stories (Sorry Ellis for speaking of you in the third person) is that the lessons/distinctions are so deeply embedded in the events of the time that he learnt them, that as he retrieves them it triggers the specific circumstances of the experience which he relates. I personally learn HEAPS from Ellis' stories about the mental frame of a professional player.

So. I think Spec's idea is brilliant. Count me in

Chief

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chief is right! So is bluetri! So is Oz! So is Steve.

Spec DOES have a great idea! But the format needs to be realistic. We need to replicate actual casino conditions and actual casino shoes.

If I'm reading everyone right, you would like to see how I would play your shoes. What I would have done differently in the same situation you faced and why. And you would like to see the explanation BEFORE each play. Everybody knows what to do after the play.

You don't want RG shoes. You want the real thing.

What you want to see is how the decision making creates the score under real conditions. What are the triggers. What determines the approach and what determines the system within that approach and how is the betting strategy determined.

Therefore, you guys supply the shoes. I don't care where they come from as long as you tell me where they came from; On line, how many decks, how many plays, real casinos, which one, regular or preshuffled cards and anything you can add to that information.

When you think about it, what better way is there to teach? What to do in the heat of battle and why.

I can write rules until my fingers fall off but what counts is what rule applies best to the shoe at hand right now and thus far.

In other words put me in the exact same position you were in when you played the shoe. Where would I start and why? Which side would I bet and why? How much would I bet and why? When would I switch and why? What are the SAP counts telling us? When does the OR count rule and why. When do I get out and why. And a whole lot more subjects will come up during play. The same exact shoe has never been dealt twice. Every shoe creates its own situation. Some are easy. Some not so easy. And some downright impossible.

OK, that is what we'll do but there are some practicalities we need to deal with,

First, I can't play and explain at the same time so playing on line shoes in real time is out. I mean we could certainly do that but that is a whole different project and not practical for teaching purposes.

It is far too much ground to cover in one marathon webinar.

Sure, it would be worth $200 IF we could cover everything in one webinar but we can't. Nobody has that kind of attention span and I couldn't teach that long anyway.

I think we are much better off to do this one shoe at a time @ $50 a shoe and answer questions as we go - plus have a Q&A afterward while everything is still fresh in your mind. Look, it takes an hour to play a full shoe in real time. I'm thinking 2 -3 hours per shoe when we include play by play explanation. questions, opinions and answers. At that point everybody will be pretty much brain dead - including me.

I think webinars are limited to about 20 - 25 people so we need to record each one and make the recording available to all members. This also solves the time zone problem. It is just that the members who actually attend the webinar in real time are the ones who get to ask their questions. But, think about it - most students have the same questions anyway. Plus, if a student watching a recording has a different question, he can always ask it right on the forum. We could even provide a thread devoted to that purpose.

I think the overall scope can be boiled down to 4 approaches: NOR+ with its 4 systems, Net Betting with its 3 systems and MDB+ for tight SAP counts as well as straight Repeats or Opposites for shoes with very high OR counts.

While we are at it I'll also show you a safe way to start shoes early.

I do not think we should include MDB because it is redundant. It was for new MDB members who joined straight into MDB W/O benefit of NOR. But of the 2 approaches NOR is the best. Oh and we'll probably get some straight NOR shoes too that don't qualify for the more aggressive NOR+

I think we've got our hands full, as well as our heads W/O complicating things even further with MDB. MDB+ is all the MDB we need.

I think we can develop this into the best teaching tool we've ever had - students seeing actual shoes as they are being played rather than reading a list of rules. Look, the first comment I always get is "show me this in an actual shoe. I'm a visual learner". Evertbody is a visual learner these days and that is exactly what we will be doing. You'll be able to see my scorecard as well as create your own as we go. BTW, I can also show you the value of dividing your scorecard into columns of 20 plays. We could even create a toteboard if we want.

This teaching tool opens up all kinds of opportunities we haven't even begun to appreciate.

I like it. But the real question is what do you guys think?

Edited by Ellis
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this idea has real merit...just a matter of sorting out the logistics.

Yep...the more I think about it ...the more I like it.

This method of teaching will most likely benefit even the most experienced of players...but I'm thinking that for those less experienced, it will act like an "Accelerated Learning Program"

Go for it

Oz

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shoes from different casinos could be entered in a PowerPoint Program. For example, a shoe would be loaded in the PowerPoint Program. The presenter would then click one hand at a time explaining his betting strategy. The viewer is able to see all the dealt hands while the hands in the rest of the shoe will be hidden until the presenter clicks to expose the next hand. Before the presenter exposes the next hand, he places his bet then clicks with the mouse to expose the next hand. This procedure continues until the end of the shoe.

Gil

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is what I originally asked for when I joined this forum and what I thought I paid for. Now you're charging again for what should have been taught in the first place?

Hi Bobby,

I'm just a player here - like you. I joined about six months before you, and I work in the legal field. I never once got the impression that I was paying for what was being proposed here with the "Accelerated Learning Program" (Great name Oz!).

I'm not sure what you are referring to, but please don't think that you're missing out on 'what should have been taught in the first place'.

I've found my fellow players on this forum to be open, honest, supportive and inspiring. Yes sometimes we get frustrated with each other, but this forum is a rare opportunity to communicate and learn with like-minded players, combined with the guidance of Ellis - whom I have acknowledged to be a genius in this field, and a resource and man I am privileged to interact with.

I can't speak for the adminstrators/management of the site, but if you feel that you're not getting the support you need, you are welcome to message me and I will do my utmost to bring you up to speed. We're all in this together.

Chief

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this idea has real merit...just a matter of sorting out the logistics.

Yep...the more I think about it ...the more I like it.

This method of teaching will most likely benefit even the most experienced of players...but I'm thinking that for those less experienced, it will act like an "Accelerated Learning Program"

Go for it

Oz

Hi All,

With respect, can I suggest that perhaps there be a management committee of three players (with Spec as Chair) to prepare the proposed logistics to present to Ellis?

The project would include preparation of shoes, facilitation to Ellis during the broadcasted program(s), maintenance of the question facility (so it's not a confusing free-for-all), cataloguing the material for future access and reference, and the like.

What do we all think?

If all goes well, this may prove a great ongoing interactive process. Perhaps it could evolve to top players playing shoes and Ellis critiquing them (so the onus is not always on Ellis to shoulder the load). If our goal is for all committed players to hit that initial target of a million dollars, this program would be unrivaled.

Chief

PS You've unleashed a mighty idea here Spec. Well done. We all owe you!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

Terms of Use