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Hey, All

Played a shoe at Golden Nugget Vegas tonight..

Like Chris Isaac says, DON'T FALL IN LOVE with this one, because it was pretty much the goose that laid the golden egg...I got out at hand 34...recorded the rest until I got bored

B 1231231241232231231111123312311273

4D rocked.

U2hi?

MDB+

So many systems.

So little time ( between hands)

Hoping Ellis can put this all in one...

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Hey, All

Played a shoe at Golden Nugget Vegas tonight..

Like Chris Isaac says, DON'T FALL IN LOVE with this one, because it was pretty much the goose that laid the golden egg...I got out at hand 34...recorded the rest until I got bored

B 1231231241232231231111123312311273

4D rocked.

U2hi?

MDB+

So many systems.

So little time ( between hands)

Hoping Ellis can put this all in one...

Well Kevin, I think you said a mouthful yesterday when you said what is needed now is a thorough review of NOR.

NOR always was and always will be the very best way regular cards can be played.

Downtown Vegas whether BJ or Bac is traditional cards. They aren't influenced by what the Strip is doing.

There is plenty of traditional hand shuffled BJ and plenty of traditional Bac.

NOR has already been tweaked to the ultimate. When we added TB4L for streak,

confined F to Strong Side,

began using the OR count to determine mode

and went to U1D2 M2 betting in good shoes as well as 345

We already had NOR tweakied to the ultimate.

What we need to tweak is our players.

Many think NOR has been replaced.

NOR is still our ultimate system for regular cards. It will never be replaced.

Our problem is that many of our players still can't play NOR.

They can't glance at a shoe and know which NOR system to play or which mode to play it in or what betting system to deploy.

They've simply forgotten or maybe never knew in the first place.

Your shoe is a perfect example:

OTB4L AUTOMATICALLY beats all single 1's, 2s and 3s.

Your shoe is almost all single 1's, 2s and 3s. It is a perfect OTB4L shoe.

The OR count is hovering 0 making it a Mode 3 shoe against ST runs and a Mode 2 shoe against ZZ runs.

If you simply play OTB4L M3 with a 1234 prog

You hit +34 for the second time and quit at play 67. That's already the highest scoring shoe most of you have ever had.

But If you know the finer points of OTB4L you know we should be playing this shoe in mode 3 against ST and Mode 2 against ZZ and because of our high hit rate we should be betting a 3456 down 2 prog.

So I'll play it OTB4L Mode 3 with a 1234 prog for you.

But then I'll play it OTB4L M3 against ST and M2 against ZZ with a 3456 prog just to show you what an enlightened NOR player can do with this shoe.

I'm not doing anything that is not already fully explained on the NOR forum. In fact I'm playing right out of the NOR manual with NO tricks of the trade.

And I think you will agree that what is needed is a full review of NOR basics.

The question is, if I do that, how does the forum make money meanwhile???

post-8-14500262627291_thumb.jpg

Well, in checking I see my 1 bet at play 20 should have been on P followed by a 2 bet on B

but no real harm done. I'll fix that when I play it with a 3456 prog which this shoe is screaming for because of the very high hit rate. Remember, when you have a high hit rate a 3456 prog is actually MORE conservative than a 1234 prog as you will soon see.

Edited by Ellis
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OK, this is the exact same shoe played with a 3456 prog.

Since the OR count is hovering 0 and slightly favoring +, I played mode 3 against ST runs and Mode 2 against ZZ runs per the book but this shoe is so good mode doesn't matter much. So in Mode 2 I stayed OTR for TWO plays per the manual and in Mode 3 I stayed OTR for ONE play per the manual.

You might ask where the 6 bet came from???

Simple: When in Mode 3 you are replacing a 1234 prog so you need to replace it with a 4 bet prog - 3456.

Your other option is to stay in Mode 2 and just play a 345 prog. Either way works out fine is THIS shoe.

But very often being in the right mode makes all the difference and this shoe is calling for Mode 3 against ST runs because of its slightly + OR count. That automatically puts us in mode 2 against ZZs.

And since I'm playing right out of the book....post-8-14500262629703_thumb.jpg

That just goes to show you how well plain old NOR can do right out of the manual.

YOU OWE it to yourself to advance to the 3456 prog because you are winning far more bets than you are losing. If you should lose a 3456 prog you are only down 6 first bets but if you lose a 1234 prog, you are down 10 first bets. That's the strength of the 3456 prog.

Now, you guys should have seen this opportunity at a glance as I did.

BUT you didn't!

That 's why I think a full review of NOR is called for.

NOR is the best way regular cards can be played and most of you are playing regular cards.

On line is REGULAR cards.

Most US casinos except for the Vegas stip is regular cards.

THAT is what you need to know how to play first and foremost.

Sure, 2Hi systems are fine and 1 Hi systems are fine but they can't even begin to do what NOR can do.

There is such a thing as being TOO conservative - giving yourself almost no chance of winning.

But the fact is, you can't gamble W/O gambling.

And NOR is still usually more conservative than anyone else at the table.

Yet you consuistently make more money than anyone else at the table.

That is why NOR is the FIRST system we teach.

That is what you need to learn FIRST.

Oh, why did I quit at +70???

Because the 3456 prog maxes out at 70. It is very rare to successfully play pst +70.

Oh, "D2" means down 2 on a win.

BTW, there were 2 7iars in this shoe, one ZZ and one ST. Note how we breezed right through them, one in Mode 2 and one in Mode 3.

Edited by Ellis
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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
Well Kevin, I think you said a mouthful yesterday when you said what is needed now is a thorough review of NOR.

NOR always was and always will be the very best way regular cards can be played.

Downtown Vegas whether BJ or Bac is traditional cards. They aren't influenced by what the Strip is doing.

There is plenty of traditional hand shuffled BJ and plenty of traditional Bac.

NOR has already been tweaked to the ultimate. When we added TB4L for streak,

confined F to Strong Side,

began using the OR count to determine mode

and went to U1D2 M2 betting in good shoes as well as 345

We already had NOR tweakied to the ultimate.

What we need to tweak is our players.

Many think NOR has been replaced.

NOR is still our ultimate system for regular cards. It will never be replaced.

Our problem is that many of our players still can't play NOR.

They can't glance at a shoe and know which NOR system to play or which mode to play it in or what betting system to deploy.

They've simply forgotten or maybe never knew in the first place.

Your shoe is a perfect example:

OTB4L AUTOMATICALLY beats all single 1's, 2s and 3s.

Your shoe is almost all single 1's, 2s and 3s. It is a perfect OTB4L shoe.

The OR count is hovering 0 making it a Mode 3 shoe against ST runs and a Mode 2 shoe against ZZ runs.

If you simply play OTB4L M3 with a 1234 prog

You hit +34 for the second time and quit at play 67. That's already the highest scoring shoe most of you have ever had.

But If you know the finer points of OTB4L you know we should be playing this shoe in mode 3 against ST and Mode 2 against ZZ and because of our high hit rate we should be betting a 3456 down 2 prog.

So I'll play it OTB4L Mode 3 with a 1234 prog for you.

But then I'll play it OTB4L M3 against ST and M2 against ZZ with a 3456 prog just to show you what an enlightened NOR player can do with this shoe.

I'm not doing anything that is not already fully explained on the NOR forum. In fact I'm playing right out of the NOR manual with NO tricks of the trade.

And I think you will agree that what is needed is a full review of NOR basics.

The question is, if I do that, how does the forum make money meanwhile???

[ATTACH]3224[/ATTACH]

Well, in checking I see my 1 bet at play 20 should have been on P followed by a 2 bet on B

but no real harm done. I'll fix that when I play it with a 3456 prog which this shoe is screaming for because of the very high hit rate. Remember, when you have a high hit rate a 3456 prog is actually MORE conservative than a 1234 prog as you will soon see.

Would I be "oversimplifying" (?), if I said I think this is E.X.A.C.T.L.Y. what I was talking about?

What many ( not all!) of the long term members of the forum have been keeping to themselves about?

What those who buy-into/ pay for NOR ...whether through membership, or their experience at the table/ online ...betting real $$, are looking for?

Ellis, they are looking for YOU!

Sure, cavemen had to find their own wing-men

Ceasar had Marc Antony

Abbott would have been just a joke, without Costello

Dean Martin without Jerry Lewis?

And does anybody really believe Johnny Carson would have become an American TV icon without Ed McMahon?

But people are paying to see you! Paying to have you critique/ analyze their shoes!

Sure, you need Keith to maintain the website, run the social media ( or hire a company like socialmedia1st to do it), create UTube videos and generally be your right-hand wing-man

And Stephen is doing a great job putting manuals together, running seminars, etc

You seem to be on the right track in all these areas....and hopefully they make the business $$, just like any business relies on a hierarchy of talented people to make sure a business earns a profit...

But people go to church to see the priest.

They go to Temple to hear directly from the Rabbi...

They go to concerts to hear the headliner, not the intro band...

And if the news is really big, they want assurances from the Prime Minister/The President...

So if NOR is truly the best ever, first-in-class baccarat system....and even if the casinos conspire to make things like MDB and U2hi a necessary part of the arsenal, I think your " main constituency" ( NOR players) would like to hear from the King more often...

So thanks for looking at that shoe! Like I said, I left it at hand 34, but that was because I had a ' certain someone" trying to pull me away from the table and to dinner...

( no worries...I snuck back to the table during a " restroom break" and recorded the rest of it that had transpired in my absence.....)

Should have stayed! Dinner would have tasted much better!

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

Ozzy is right....it is the republic's forum.

It is about a bunch of people willing to give, willing to open their Baccarat hearts and minds...

To contribute to the welfare of others.

And the more we " talk", the more we " converse", the more we share ideas and concepts with each other...

THE MORE WE WILL COLLECTIVELY ...

Shhhh..don't tell anyone... But our singular goal is to....

(BEAT THE CASINO)

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When using a 3456 D2 progression like in this posted shoe, what happens if you loose the 6 bet? Thanks

You are 6 first bets down - not the end of the world. But if you lose a 1234 you are 10 first bets down and that pretty much IS the end of the world.

The 345 is only an option when you have a high hit rate at the table you are playing. The basic NOR prog is 123. and your goal is +10.

But when you are winning the majority of your bets in the shoe you are playing at the table you are playing at the time of day you are playing, it becomes your duty to advance your prog. You aren't always going to get such agreeable shoes. So you strike when the iron is hot to make up for the times the iron is not hot.

Your first advancement (NOR+) is what we call U1D2. You go up 1 unit on a loss and down 2 on a win. Betting this way you can beat the shoe soundly winning only half your bets and your average highest bet is only 4 units. When we do this we increase our goal to +20 units.

Very effective! To give you an idea, I played only new cards every morning at Gold Strike, Tunica for 3 years. (New regular cards are usually highly susceptible to NOR's OTB4L) The casino does this with their morning card prep because they know that most players have no idea how to beat an OTB4L shoe such as this one. The casino likes to get their day off to a good start. But NOR Kills OTB4L and U1D2 kills it even more. I won nearly every shoe to the tune of 20 units for 3 years straight while everyone else at the table was losing their shirt. I won 20 shoes in a row at 20 units a shoe hundreds of times. I started at 7 AM and was through for the day by 1 PM.

But on exceptionally good days I would advance to the 345 U1D2 prog and advance my goal to +30. BTW I was often playing head to head wherein I play lightening fast and a full shoe only takes about 20 minutes.

But most players don't get the math of the 345 prog. See you are actually playing at LESS risk than the 123 as strange as that may seem at first glance.

But look, when you inevitably lose a 123 you are 6 first bets down. It is hard to make up a 6 unit deficit with 1 bets.

But when you lose a 345 you are only 4 first bets down - a minor inconvenience and easy to make up.

So OK, you lose a 345. You are down 12 chips but only 4 units because your unit is actually 3 chips.

So if you are betting U1D2 and lose a 345 but then win the 6,4 you are only down 2 chips - less than 1 unit. See that? And you only won 2 bets out of 5.

Win 1 more bet and you are actually up even though you only won half your bets which is the table odds.

See Baccarat is not about sitting down in the first open seat you find and then trying to figure out which side to play.

That is what everybody does and they lose to an average of 16% of the money they bet.

They are the players that keep casinos in business.

No, you have to have a heads up casino strategy.

You have to know how to conduct a table selection search.-

How to find the easiest table in the casino to beat - and then -

You need to know how to select the best system to beat that table.

One of 4 systems will beat virtually any table and the table itself, the tote board, is telling you which system to play.

And your score is telling you the best way to bet.

We teach you how to beat regular cards - cards that origionally game to the table in 8 sealed decks.

NOR is the very best way to beat regular cards. You will frequently be the only winner at the table.

And we teach you how to beat factory preshuffled cards: MDB+ has a 95% shoe win rate against factory preshuffled cards.

Two of our players passed the 2million dollars in winnings mark. That doesn't happen by accident.

Yes, I know I'm on the public forum and I shouldn't be posting shoes here but how else are you going to see how easy it is win, once you know what you are doing.

Look at that shoe I posted. It's not a trick shoe. It is a very common shoe type one of our successwful players, Kevin, happened to post. In fact OTB4L is the MOST common shoe type. I can pretty much guarantee you that every other player at the table will lose that shoe while watching me make +70 units simply playing OTB4L by the book.

YOU could be doing that - All it takes is a little study and practice.

What does it cost? It won't cost you anything! It is money you are going to lose anyway. probably the very next time you play.

The average player loses more every day he plays than I charge to teach you how to win.

Every Baccarat shoe ever dealt in the history of Baccarat could be beat by matching the right system to the right shoe.

But better yet, you need to kinow how to find the most beatable table in the casino. That makes life a whole lot easier.

No, you don't need to be a Math whiz. We don't use Math to win. I'm your Math whiz. I need to know how to design systems mathematically and I've been doing that for 30+ years. All you need to do is follow simple directions.

Study and practice. Every private member here will tell you the same thing.

If you are going to play Baccarat this is the best place to learn how by a country mile.

And if you don't know how, you are going to lose. Those are the simple facts of life.

YOU could be our next 2 million dollar winner. It's up to you.

Oh, so how long did it take those 2 guys to get to 2 million dollars starting out at $10 units???

About 2 years playing part time!

Edited by Ellis
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nice write up Ellis,if they don't go over to the other side after this,so they can go over to the other side of playing and winning, there's no hope.it's a real nice feeling when your on the other side not following the crowd and your like that little dog in the wizard of oz and looks under the curtain and discovered how someone has controlled the wizard,the shuffle master wizard.shhh there's more but i don't think i should say here.

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nice write up Ellis,if they don't go over to the other side after this,so they can go over to the other side of playing and winning, there's no hope.it's a real nice feeling when your on the other side not following the crowd and your like that little dog in the wizard of oz and looks under the curtain and discovered how someone has controlled the wizard,the shuffle master wizard.shhh there's more but i don't think i should say here.

You rang?:wink:

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When using a 3456 D2 progression like in this posted shoe, what happens if you loose the 6 bet? Thanks

In my case at the Unit size I'm playing...Call the Paramedics.

I'm thinking that this sort of progression is designed for lower unit sizes.

There is not a "snowflakes chance in hell" of me ever making a bet of more than 2 units. Norm "RIP" would come back to haunt me

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Anyone who don't want to join after reading this is either already winning or their never gonna win.

You got the big boss coming on and setting things straight and demonstrating how to kill a real shoe using NOR, and you got 2 of the best players on here who play for real and are real posting and 1 complaining about the progression methods because his bet size is too large!

What other forum would you see that?

The only regret I have is sitting on the fence for 5 years before I joined.

I would already be playing full time by now - as it stands I think I have another year to go of hard study, practise and compounding the bankroll.

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In my case at the Unit size I'm playing...Call the Paramedics.

I'm thinking that this sort of progression is designed for lower unit sizes.

There is not a "snowflakes chance in hell" of me ever making a bet of more than 2 units. Norm "RIP" would come back to haunt me

Amen brother! A 6 unit bet?!! Forget the paramedics, just send me to the nut house!

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but for you guys I can understand your point but for guys at lower unit levels the debate continues: If you can do well with flat betting / minor progression then can you not always do even better with a sensible progression going slightly higher?

But in reality I find the higher you raise your bets the less you tend to rely on superior bet selection / table selection which is always the best.

I guess its a discipline thing

Obviously you can only play this way until your BR compounds to hit table limits and becomes scary as you say but the dilemma is could you not get to that point faster using a higher progression than 2 units?

Then is it not better to play one way from the start and to never have to adjust it as your bet size goes up even if it takes you longer to get there?

I'm torn between the 2 ways but because of the success of Norm and Oz that I've read about I'm leaning towards keeping it flat / 2 max.

I just don't know but will figure it out

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but for you guys I can understand your point but for guys at lower unit levels the debate continues: If you can do well with flat betting / minor progression then can you not always do even better with a sensible progression going slightly higher?

But in reality I find the higher you raise your bets the less you tend to rely on superior bet selection / table selection which is always the best.

I guess its a discipline thing

Obviously you can only play this way until your BR compounds to hit table limits and becomes scary as you say but the dilemma is could you not get to that point faster using a higher progression than 2 units?

Then is it not better to play one way from the start and to never have to adjust it as your bet size goes up even if it takes you longer to get there?

I'm torn between the 2 ways but because of the success of Norm and Oz that I've read about I'm leaning towards keeping it flat / 2 max.

I just don't know but will figure it out

There are two ways of looking at it and pretty much it depends on your personality...If you are a risk taker by nature, then definitely go with a negative progression, but be aware that unless you are blessed with the remarkable ability to switch off and ignore the size of your units, then there will come a time when you can no longer increase the size of your units (due to prospective heart failure) or you change the way you bet. TBH...I shit myself when I made my first $1K bet which was a 2 unit bet.

If like me...you are still waiting for your balls to drop...then either flat betting or some sort of 2Hi wagering system is the best option.

Norm set me on this alternative path when he suggested that I should start the way I intended to continue.

Each person has to decide for themselves.

Both staking methods have their advantages and disadvantages.

A Negative Progression can be a quick and exciting way to increase your Bank while requiring a higher Bank to operate with safety.

Flatbetting or 2Hi is about as exciting as watching paint dry and my biggest prob is staying awake. (Sadly, I admit to nodding off once and woke with my head on my keyboard and my computer screen saying that as I had not placed a bet for 10 hands, that I had been logged off) I didn't ever check to see what my indiscretion may have cost me...Sometimes it's better just not to know.

It's a bit of a contradiction in a way, because I make damn sure that all my faculties are up to speed when I start playing...but unfortunately "old person" disease means that my attention span is not what it once was...LOL

But, I digress...

The advantages of Flatbetting or 2Hi are that you can risk playing with higher units as a bad run of outs is not going to smash you out of the ballpark...and given that you are risking less, you will be surprised at how quickly your unit size grows. (kinda like compound interest...sorta)

If you can average even one unit a shoe, then eventually you are going to be doing the same as me...crapping your pants when you make your first $1K

bet

Think about it...Baccarat is an even money game. Casinos make their money because the majority of people chase their losses.

You have a 50% chance of winning (near as matters) with flat betting and given all the teaching available on BTC...if you can't turn that into a 1+ unit/shoe advantage...you should find something else to do nights

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Thanks for the info Oz - the most I've seen you write on here for a while.

Have you had a good week or just taken your medication?!

(Just a joke)

I'm in recovery mode...I got kicked in the schnoz by a cow...

Don't ask...and definitely don't assume.

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