Flatbetting - Pro's, Cons, Tricks

[brad01]

Hi guys as you know some of our most successful players flat bet or at least do not raise their units sizes very high at all.

This enables them to focus on their hit rate, concentrate on the bias at hand, and not be hurt by banker commission, and also to raise their unit size very high as they don't need to go much above their base bet.

I have started a MDR - Million Dollar Roulette challenge and I am playing by flat bet

So far I am +21 and gone up 1 level (doubled BR) with only 1 losing session and 2 zero losses

I have found it pretty hard to limit myself to flat bet and my bet selection has changed because of it but I am forcing myself to get used to it as I know that's how our most successful players have done it.

In doing so I have really started to think how I need to adjust things for flat bet as compared to progressive betting.

I was wondering if people could list what they see as Pros, Cons, Tricks or Techniques

Pros

Simple to keep track of unit size to bet and no chance to bet wrong amount

Easier to keep track of winning / losing units

Takes away the tendency to keep increasing your bets on losing sessions

Forces you to keep tighter stop loss

Forces you to have a high hit rate and watch the bias

Forces you to have a realistic stop loss compared to win goal

wLwLwL scenario will not lose you money but break you even

Loves streaks - let it ride and watch the profits go up!

Commission and zeros etc don't hurt you as much

Can bet high unit sizes easier

Cons

Boring

Don't win as many units

Need that high hit rate to come out in front

Forces you to play longer for a win if hit rate not above 50%

Not easy for beginners as their hit rate may not be high

Techniques

Look for streaks and ride them

Look for the strongest and most consistent bias you can find

Play some imaginary bets and see what your hit rate looks like - if its bad then that's bad!

Be happy to walk with even 1 unit

Make a BR plan to keep the psychology that you don't need a lot of units to be moving up

Only play high % bets - ideally ones where your decision is based on multiple tells or signals to bet rather than just 1

[brad01]

Pros

Easier to keep an eye on your money - less impulse to increase your bets out of control to make up for losses

Easier to leave when hit stop loss

Less chance for beginners (or otherwise) too get yourself in the sh**t

Cons

Its so simple people don't believe you can win with it so they look to complicate things and use a fancy progression

Tips

If you flat bet a strong bias your first bet is your only risk - after a win on that if you ride it then you can only break even at worst or be in + at best. 2 - 3 units is a good time to exit if your not sure as if you keep betting a loss is imminent and with flat betting every unit counts

[wolfat]

IMO:

deploy a loss/win chart to modulate your size bet

[ECD]

You may do ok with flat betting, but with roulette (as well as baccarat) playing a 1,2 loop is more efficient. The loop will ensure that you are increasing your score on the runs and also get you thru the sporadic 2s when the wheel or the shoe is giving you opposites. On the 2s (provided you don't get wrong footed) when you lose the 1 you can hit the next opposite with a 2 bet. You can still make your MDB bets while playing but I would only use MDB for determining which "side" to bet on once you have seen the triggers. Even on the MDB bets, I would still use the 1,2 loop.

CT70

Hi guys as you know some of our most successful players flat bet or at least do not raise their units sizes very high at all.

This enables them to focus on their hit rate, concentrate on the bias at hand, and not be hurt by banker commission, and also to raise their unit size very high as they don't need to go much above their base bet.

I have started a MDR - Million Dollar Roulette challenge and I am playing by flat bet

So far I am +21 and gone up 1 level (doubled BR) with only 1 losing session and 2 zero losses

I have found it pretty hard to limit myself to flat bet and my bet selection has changed because of it but I am forcing myself to get used to it as I know that's how our most successful players have done it.

In doing so I have really started to think how I need to adjust things for flat bet as compared to progressive betting.

I was wondering if people could list what they see as Pros, Cons, Tricks or Techniques

Pros

Simple to keep track of unit size to bet and no chance to bet wrong amount

Easier to keep track of winning / losing units

Takes away the tendency to keep increasing your bets on losing sessions

Forces you to keep tighter stop loss

Forces you to have a high hit rate and watch the bias

Forces you to have a realistic stop loss compared to win goal

wLwLwL scenario will not lose you money but break you even

Loves streaks - let it ride and watch the profits go up!

Commission and zeros etc don't hurt you as much

Can bet high unit sizes easier

Cons

Boring

Don't win as many units

Need that high hit rate to come out in front

Forces you to play longer for a win if hit rate not above 50%

Not easy for beginners as their hit rate may not be high

Techniques

Look for streaks and ride them

Look for the strongest and most consistent bias you can find

Play some imaginary bets and see what your hit rate looks like - if its bad then that's bad!

Be happy to walk with even 1 unit

Make a BR plan to keep the psychology that you don't need a lot of units to be moving up

Only play high % bets - ideally ones where your decision is based on multiple tells or signals to bet rather than just 1

[brad01]

Yes a 1,2 loop is also something I would play but I think that's it. (As high as I would go)

As a method to be able to raise your unit size consistently flat bet or 1,2 would be the most I would play.

As partner systems with lower unit sizes I wouldn't mind to raise bets a little higher as it allows you to play every hand and makes things more exciting.

The money earner long term would be raising unit sizes as quickly as possible and flat bet / 1,2 loop at most would be the way to go I feel.

Hi wolfat I also did experiment with loss / win ratio to optimise bet size. - I did find it helps sometimes.

[brad01]

Hi CT70 sounds like you are a roulette fan too?

[ECD]

Hi CT70 sounds like you are a roulette fan too?

Yes, I'm a fan of roulette too. I would play it more often if it weren't so time consuming. The spins and the payouts take too long.

They don't have roulette in my local casino so I can only play when I go to Las Vegas.

CT70

[ECD]

Hi CT70 sounds like you are a roulette fan too?

Yes, I'm a fan of roulette too. I would play it more often if it weren't so time consuming. The spins and the payouts take too long.

They don't have roulette in my local casino so I can only play when I go to Las Vegas.

CT70

[Wendel]

Yes a 1,2 loop is also something I would play but I think that's it. (As high as I would go)

As a method to be able to raise your unit size consistently flat bet or 1,2 would be the most I would play.

As partner systems with lower unit sizes I wouldn't mind to raise bets a little higher as it allows you to play every hand and makes things more exciting.

The money earner long term would be raising unit sizes as quickly as possible and flat bet / 1,2 loop at most would be the way to go I feel.

Hi wolfat I also did experiment with loss / win ratio to optimise bet size. - I did find it helps sometimes.

Hi Brad,

Have you considered a 0-1 or 1-0 prog & their respective loops ?

I was considering a 0-1-2 prog for MDB+, but I realized that Way2fast had effectively built

the 0 bet in his modifications to the original MDB+. I am not in a very good environment for MDB+

anyway , so I am not pursuing either option.

[brad01]

not really to tell you the truth. what is this, like imaginary bet for the 0?

[Wendel]

not really to tell you the truth. what is this, like imaginary bet for the 0?

Yes, i was thinking to replicate the effect of a 1-2 prog with less risk. (less potential profit too)

[brad01]

Apparently imaginary bets have been described as having the same advantage as card counting in BJ (Although we know that strategy has been countered from what we learn on this site - if there ever was a worthwhile advantage)

But regardless it has been described as giving players an advantage - meaning hit rate greater than 50% by waiting for several imaginary losses and then betting for real.

This is pretty much what wolfat is saying I believe by deploying win / loss charting to optimise bet size

Several people like way2fast have done this with MDB+ by delaying the triggers and they HAVE achieved a higher hit rate.

[wolfat]

brad01,

in fact the LW chart could be much more effective than you suppose.

when you get 50 or more decisions in your chart you can make reasonable forecasts about your next session.

but the most important aspect is that you can overcome the negative variance, keeping your bets low till your

average is back into the stated ranges and then betting heavily at the right time.

this is slightly different from a 0,1 looped because a fixed MM doesn't offer advantages on the long term, IMO.

[brad01]

thanks for this I will definitely experiment with it more

[kachatz1]

Think the WolfMan is saying this...

" sometimes, after careful observation and tracking of a players W/L " trends", an experienced player will climb further out on the limb of his Money Management Tree, and make calculated, larger than normal progressive , sequential bets as they feel the cumulative risk vs. potential reward is now more favorably balanced in their favor"

( Naturally, a player's decision to do this could be wrong...or they could be right, resulting in a favorable addition of bankroll to the player's chip count...)

So even if this is NOT what Wolfat is saying...

No doubt that part of winning is definitely " subjective" and cannot be accounted for by rigid, never deviate positive/negative progression " rules"

This advice, with which I agree, is best reserved for truly experienced players, and must be evaluated in the context of one's game, session and lifetime bankroll metrics.

( In other words, the more money one has, the more they are prone to identify " strategic" betting opportunities, as opposed to strictly adhering to finite MM " rules")

( Conversely, until such point as a player has reached a level where they can afford such risk, they are best to stick to strict MM rules)

In Country Western parlance, this means never bet an amount which would:

1) Cause the truck to be repossessed.

2) Result in the dog going hungry.

Or

3) Give the wife a ( good) reason to leave...( WARNING: She may already have others...)

Just my opinion.

Woof!!

[wolfat]

K, compare the Variance to waves. the LW chart will give you the optimal entry/exit points to bet heavily or not. of course you must be an experienced player to play this form of "art". you must know very well the ranges in low and high of your system and bet accordingly.