Other bet selection methods that work

[brad01]

Other bet selection methods with proven results that give better than 50/50 hit rates

Missing event - seems to be valid towards end of shoe - scan down the series of events straight and zz and look for a missing event in both

eg 4 - then bet the next potential 4 straight or zz stays 4

wait till its missing for at least more than double expected

why it works - you see shoes low in events but seldom without 1 event and further to that not across straights and zz's

Eg 1121322175111211 - bet 4 zz stays 4

won on a 4zz today at end of shoe because no 4 st or zz through out whole shoe till nearly the end

Break the pattern

pattern consisting of about 6 plays cant keep going forever

Eg

2121 bet next 1 stays 1 breaking the pattern

can go over 6 plays - 3232 but 6 or more seems to be optimum

can wait until the an unlikely event to bet on if you think pattern might continue extra play.

Won plenty of these today

Looking forward to others tricks that work for them

[brad01]

Break the pattern continued..

Am having a lot of success with this one - could it be the next big thing?

Look at patterns formed and patterns forming and record the number of plays they go without breaking.

Keep a running average - for me it is 6. For other people it may be less or more.

Obviously the longer you wait the higher you would expect your hit rate as with delayed triggers MDB+

If you wait too long you miss out which is why you record your average to be able to pick the optimum number.

Your average may change session to session in fact it will which means you have to adjust per session up or down but its good to know your reference point.

Progression? I believe you will feel the answer to this when you play as you feel how accurate your break number is. If its spot on then you can use flat bet but if its off by 2 then you will need a progression or you will need to adjust your break point - one of the 2.

You can also bet against patterns forming or potential patterns forming as soon as they hit the break point

Also you can bet patterns forming will go on longer if they are below the break point.

Example;

Black / Red Roulette;

R41121241

First pattern - 1212 - 6 plays which is my break point so bet next 1 goes to 2 to break the pattern - its a 4 so win (12124)

Next potential pattern - 2424 - we are at 24 which is 6 plays which is my break point so bet the pattern wont form - bet next 1 stays 1 and doesn't go to 2 - Win! pattern did not form.

Running break point average = 6 + 6 = 12 divide by 2 patterns = 6

Is it likely my next break point will be 6 exactly? we don't know so maybe time to sit back and wait for a few fluctuations before we are able to decide a break point that will bring the average back. - a couple of lows could be followed by a high which will cause the average to even out.

Or you could go with the mentality that the average is 6 so it should stay at 6 and continue using that as the break point.

Get a couple of direct hits right on break point?

Maybe be prepared to use a 2 or 3 step progression on next one to get the W

The strength in this idea is that patterns cant continue forever in the real world meaning they will all break. The question is at what point. Keeping an average allows you to predict that per session and overall and it could allow you to get your hit rate above 50% which is the aim of the game.

Going down to the casino now to play some hit and run roulette with this!

[brad01]

Having a lot of success with this and have refined it a bit wondering if anyone else could test it and might find it works for them:

7 patterns

1. PPPPPPPPP

2. BBBBBBBBB

3. PBPBPB

4. PP B PP B

5. BB P BB P

6. PPP BBB PPP

7. PP BB PP BB

These are all the possible patterns for up to 4 plays if I'm not mistaken

They have to all form and break in reality but when?

I found in reality 4 - 6 plays on average but they vary per shoe.

Record like this:

1-7 - pattern 1 breaks at 7 plays - eg - PPPPPPPB

7-4 - pattern 7 breaks after 4 plays - eg PPBBPPBBPB

average break point is 7 + 4 / 2 = 5.5

can record as follows;

1-7, 2-5, 7-4

Can record average of each pattern break point as they may each have own characteristics or use the average across the board

Also can use the sequence to predict what pattern comes next - eg if after pattern 1 was pattern 2 then you may predict it will go different next time or same

Using tracking of events like MDB+ tracking also allows you to predict

I use this with NOR and MDB+ as sometimes you cant pick a NOR bias and are waiting for MDB+ triggers and this seems to be valid all the time so its extra bets

Also it seems to have a high accuracy.

Some plays and results later.

Comments?

[trillion]

I would like to see (understand) how you are making your betting decisions with a baccarat shoe and explanation of why you made these bets.

[brad01]

Roulette = Black / Red

B4111411131115111213

4 = pattern 2 breaks at 4 (2-4)

1114 = pattern 3 breaks at 4 (3-4)

4 = pattern 2 breaks at 4 (2-4)

average break point = 4+4+4 / 3 = 4

bet on break after 4

111 = pattern 3 bet next 1 goes to 2 breaking the 111 pattern = 1113 so W (3-4)

31 = pattern 6 so bet the 1 stays 1 = 311 so W (6-4)

1115 (3-4) = W

5 (2-5) LW

1112 (3-4) W

1213 (4-6) LLW

6 wins, 3 loss

easy to look back and say s40m1 but sometimes nor bets or mdb+ not so evident

[brad01]

you have to wait at least 3 bets for a pattern to form - sometimes 4

eg PBP can tell after 3 plays

PPP is it PPPBBB or PPPP

PPB is it PPBPPB or PPBB

if you track like 1-4, 3-3, 4-7 you can predict when a pattern will go long and flat bet it or when one will go short and bet against it. also if one pattern jumps to same one a few times then can bet it will jump to different one next time so can win with that

also some patterns will have higher average break points than others so can use that too.

[trillion]

you have to wait at least 3 bets for a pattern to form - sometimes 4

eg PBP can tell after 3 plays

PPP is it PPPBBB or PPPP

PPB is it PPBPPB or PPBB

if you track like 1-4, 3-3, 4-7 you can predict when a pattern will go long and flat bet it or when one will go short and bet against it. also if one pattern jumps to same one a few times then can bet it will jump to different one next time so can win with that

also some patterns will have higher average break points than others so can use that too.

Brad, would you be kind enough to give an explanation on 1-4, 3-3, 4-7 patterns.

I don't understand these patterns or how you are betting.

Are you betting after a example of 4-7 pattern, that there will be 4IAR and then 7IAR????

[brad01]

I number all patterns - now I change order from most choppy to most streaky:

1. PBPB

2. PPBPPB

3. BBPBBP

4. PPBB

5. PPPBBB

6. PPPP

7. BBBB

so if you get the pattern PBPBB then its 1-4 as its pattern 1 breaking after 4 plays

if you get BBBBBP then its pattern 7 breaking after 5 plays (7-5)

you can scan bake and see the pattern sequence and the average break points

[trillion]

I number all patterns - now I change order from most choppy to most streaky:

1. PBPB

2. PPBPPB

3. BBPBBP

4. PPBB

5. PPPBBB

6. PPPP

7. BBBB

so if you get the pattern PBPBB then its 1-4 as its pattern 1 breaking after 4 plays

if you get BBBBBP then its pattern 7 breaking after 5 plays (7-5)

you can scan bake and see the pattern sequence and the average break points

Brad are you saying if there is a 3 IAR followed by a 2 IAR, that you would make a bet that there maybe another 3 IAR followed by a 2 IAR????

Similar to pattern #6 or 7 and ending after a 3 IAR, so you would bet the next 3 bets will be on the same side.

Could you explain what you are talking about when describing about break point in the shoe, not sure if I have a understanding of topic.

[tsenks]

Having a lot of success with this and have refined it a bit wondering if anyone else could test it and might find it works for them:

7 patterns

1. PPPPPPPPP

2. BBBBBBBBB

3. PBPBPB

4. PP B PP B

5. BB P BB P

6. PPP BBB PPP

7. PP BB PP BB

These are all the possible patterns for up to 4 plays if I'm not mistaken

They have to all form and break in reality but when?

I found in reality 4 - 6 plays on average but they vary per shoe.

Record like this:

1-7 - pattern 1 breaks at 7 plays - eg - PPPPPPPB

7-4 - pattern 7 breaks after 4 plays - eg PPBBPPBBPB

average break point is 7 + 4 / 2 = 5.5

Comments?

Hi Brad,

These 7 patterns you invented by yourself or your get it and share with us from Smtinvest Super Baccarat System or from Salangane-books?

Tsen

Edited October 6, 2015 by tsenks

[brad01]

The term breakpoint i mean the number of plays of a pattern before it breaks. So for pattern 1 - pbpbpbb that repeated for 6 plays until it broke. I dont really follow what you mean above. I played a baccarat shoe half hr ago with this so i will post it. Waiting at the courthouse at moment to give evidence for an ex staff member that stole from me.....

[brad01]

Here is what I played yesterday;

P21117112141115

Recording the pattern breaks:

2-4, 1-4, 6-7

(PPBPB), (PBPBB), (PPPPPPP)

Here is where I looked at the average break of 5 and I had a 7 on the last break so I bet the next pattern would break early at 3

(1-3)

(BPBB) - W

Then I had a 3-6 (PBBPBBB) - above average again

Then I had a 7-4 (BBBBP) - I bet this would break early as the last straight (6-7) went to 7 which is high.

I bet on the lower of the average break of between 4 and 6 plays (4) and got a W straight away

Next I got a 1-4 (PBPBB) - looked at average and still liked the lower end to bring average back down but the last 1 pattern broke at 3 (1-3) which is low so went with the 4 again - W

That's all I had time for but look at the next 2 breaks:

3-3 (PBBB) and then 7-5 (BBBBB - didn't record past here)

See how a low break was followed by a higher one.

I got 3 W's off this and I have been having good success with this mostly on roulette but also is valid for bac.

I just like the theory of this and there is always patterns forming and breaking so there are plenty of bets but you get a higher hit rate if you sit back and wait for a couple of breaks to predict what will come next.

If you get a few lows and then you predict a high coming and ride it out you can get a couple of W's in a row by just flat betting.

If a pattern goes to 10 and you get on at 4 you clean up but of course that doesn't happen often.

Hope you follow this - might move this to the NOR for roulette section as that's what I use it for and the roulette section is pretty dead.

[tsenks]

I number all patterns - now I change order from most choppy to most streaky:

1. PBPB

2. PPBPPB

3. BBPBBP

4. PPBB

5. PPPBBB

6. PPPP

7. BBBB

so if you get the pattern PBPBB then its 1-4 as its pattern 1 breaking after 4 plays

if you get BBBBBP then its pattern 7 breaking after 5 plays (7-5)

you can scan bake and see the pattern sequence and the average break points

Hi Brad,

Why you want differentiate the Pattern 2 & Pattern 3 both also 2121 and also Pattern 6 & Pattern 7 both also 4s?

Tsen

[brad01]

Hello Tsen

Well they are the same but different - pattern 2 is PPBPPB and pattern 3 is BBPBBP so if you are looking at events yes they are the same but if you look in terms of P and B they are different.

They can each have their own characteristics - you may have PPPPPPPPPPP and then BBBB on average - some shoes only streak in one direction

Also the same with PPB vs BBP

The more detail you track the more accurate you can get but it may well be acceptable to record 2 and 3 as the same and 6 and 7 as the same and your results may not be any worse. If that's the case with time then I will drop it back to 5 patterns.

[tsenks]

Hello Tsen

Well they are the same but different - pattern 2 is PPBPPB and pattern 3 is BBPBBP so if you are looking at events yes they are the same but if you look in terms of P and B they are different.

They can each have their own characteristics - you may have PPPPPPPPPPP and then BBBB on average - some shoes only streak in one direction

Also the same with PPB vs BBP

The more detail you track the more accurate you can get but it may well be acceptable to record 2 and 3 as the same and 6 and 7 as the same and your results may not be any worse. If that's the case with time then I will drop it back to 5 patterns.

Hi Brad,

My suggestion is, no need to differentiate it because PPPBBB vs BBBPPP and PBPB vs BPBP also got their own characteristics.

Maybe you can try it as follow:

Pattern

1. PBPB or BPBP

2. PPBB or BBPP

3. PPBPPB or BBPBBP

4. PPPBBB or BBBPPP

5. PPPP or BBBB

But whether the results are the same or not, need to try it first.

Tsen

[brad01]

Hello Tsenks appreciate your feedback

If the pattern is the same but just a matter of where it starts then I don't differentiate

But if the pattern is different in terms of P v B then I do at this point

So I don't care about PPPBBB or BBBPPP because it is a continuation of the same pattern - also same for PPBB and PBPB

But PPB and BBP is different

Also BBBBB or PPPPP is different if you look in terms of banker / player.

So far I did see patterns related to each result rather than just to look at events as 121212 or 4 or 5

also you can calculate average break point for all events and just bet on the average for all events

You can do ok this way but if you wait for a few breaks and record them then you can predict with a higher accuracy

For example if you see PBPBB this is pattern 4-4 (pattern 4 with 4 plays)

then the next time pattern 4 comes it also goes 4-4

Then next time pattern 4 comes PBP you can predict it will break early PBPP or late PBPBPBPB

This will depend also on the current history of all events

If you can predict a long break like you think it will go 6 or more plays then you can jump on at play 3 and stay on it for 1,2 or 3 wins or until a loss

This is the best way as your risk is only 1 unit for the first bet and after that every flat bet can only cause you to profit or break even and if you get it right you can exit the pattern with a few units - if ot goes 8 or 10 times you can exit with 5 or 6 units flat betting

But sometimes if you see a couple of high breaks like 1-8, 2-6 then you may predict a low break of 4 and you can win these too so say your next pattern is PPBB the bet B to break it after 4

If lose then you can chose to bet against it again either flat bet or progression or you can wait for the next pattern and try to win off that instead either flat bet or progression

[kachatz1]

Other bet selection methods with proven results that give better than 50/50 hit rates

Missing event - seems to be valid towards end of shoe - scan down the series of events straight and zz and look for a missing event in both

eg 4 - then bet the next potential 4 straight or zz stays 4

wait till its missing for at least more than double expected

why it works - you see shoes low in events but seldom without 1 event and further to that not across straights and zz's

Eg 1121322175111211 - bet 4 zz stays 4

won on a 4zz today at end of shoe because no 4 st or zz through out whole shoe till nearly the end

Break the pattern

pattern consisting of about 6 plays cant keep going forever

Eg

2121 bet next 1 stays 1 breaking the pattern

can go over 6 plays - 3232 but 6 or more seems to be optimum

can wait until the an unlikely event to bet on if you think pattern might continue extra play.

Won plenty of these today

Looking forward to others tricks that work for them

Hey, Brad

Read through this thread but not sure I'm getting it...

Can you post an entire shoe, then go back and underneath " show exactly" what you mean/where you made your bets/what won/what lost?

Here's a shoe from Red Rock Casino here in Vegas yesterday...

From the Beginning of shoe:

P12311312441221112132122211131121215342

How would somebody set their card up to have played this beginning to end?

Thanks and keep it up!

[brad01]

Hey Kevin:

12 - PBB = pattern 3 - PBBPP - break after 4 plays so recorded as 3-4

Next pattern 23 - BBPP = pattern 4 - BBPPP - break after 4 plays so record as 4-4

Next pattern = PPPB = pattern 5 - PPPBP - break after 4 plays so record as 5-4

So this will be set out as:

3-4, 4-4, 5-4

Straight away you can tell that the shoe is OTBL type as patterns 3,4,5 are mid range so they are OTBL with 2's and 3's

Pattern 1 is choppy PBPB and patterns 6 and 7 are streaky PPPP BBBBBBBB

The average break point is 4 at moment because 4+4+4 / 3 = 4

Next I will set out the whole shoe like this and look at bet options

[brad01]

So heres the tracking of all patterns of the entire shoe:

3-4, 4-4, 5-4, 1-3, 5-4, 3-4, 4-4, 6-4, 7-4, 3-4, 4-5, 2-4, 1-4, 2-6, 5-5, 3-6, 4-7, 1-4, 5-4, 1-3, 2-9, 6-5, 5-6, 6-4

you can see from the last numbers of the tracking digits (1-(4)) that it averages 4 pretty consistently right form the start.

Towards the end it raises slightly.

On average the break point sits between 4 - 6 from shoe to shoe I found from my experience

Looking at this one starting at 4 if we flat bet a break of 4 the whole way through, moving on after a win or loss and not chasing the break past 1 bet we get

WWWWWWWWWLWWLLLLWWLLLW

14W

8L

+6 flat bet

up as you win would have killed it

Hope this helps people understand how this works and ask questions if you still don't

This is a pretty consistent average on this shoe so its a good example but there are many more ways to play this to give you a higher average and get onto runs etc

Towards the end when the average rose up to 5 - 6 I would possibly have raised the break point rather than keep it at 4 when it was incurring losses but for simplicity's sake I played it at 4 the whole way through.

An average is exactly that an average and so with the very consistent average of 4 right at the start you would expect it to rise towards the end of the shoe to put the overall average between 4 - 6 which it did

[Ntrl9]

I like this shoe for MDB 5 triggers all easy winners.

Hey, Brad

Read through this thread but not sure I'm getting it...

Can you post an entire shoe, then go back and underneath " show exactly" what you mean/where you made your bets/what won/what lost?

Here's a shoe from Red Rock Casino here in Vegas yesterday...

From the Beginning of shoe:

P12311312441221112132122211131121215342

How would somebody set their card up to have played this beginning to end?

Thanks and keep it up!

[tsenks]

So heres the tracking of all patterns of the entire shoe:

3-4, 4-4, 5-4, 1-3, 5-4, 3-4, 4-4, 6-4, 7-4, 3-4, 4-5, 2-4, 1-4, 2-6, 5-5, 3-6, 4-7, 1-4, 5-4, 1-3, 2-9, 6-5, 5-6, 6-4

you can see from the last numbers of the tracking digits (1-(4)) that it averages 4 pretty consistently right form the start.

Towards the end it raises slightly.

On average the break point sits between 4 - 6 from shoe to shoe I found from my experience

Looking at this one starting at 4 if we flat bet a break of 4 the whole way through, moving on after a win or loss and not chasing the break past 1 bet we get

WWWWWWWWWLWWLLLLWWLLLW

14W

8L

+6 flat bet

up as you win would have killed it

Hope this helps people understand how this works and ask questions if you still don't

This is a pretty consistent average on this shoe so its a good example but there are many more ways to play this to give you a higher average and get onto runs etc

Towards the end when the average rose up to 5 - 6 I would possibly have raised the break point rather than keep it at 4 when it was incurring losses but for simplicity's sake I played it at 4 the whole way through.

An average is exactly that an average and so with the very consistent average of 4 right at the start you would expect it to rise towards the end of the shoe to put the overall average between 4 - 6 which it did

Hi Brad,

You don't mind using the score card and show us exactly where you made your bets/what won/what lost, as mentioned by Kachatz (Kevin).

As I can see, after you known the first 3 patterns breaking is after 4 plays (3-4, 4-4, 5-4), thereafter only got 21 patterns but you managed to bet 22 bets (w14 & L8).

Tsen

[brad01]

Yeah sure I will map it out on a scorecard so you can see play by play how it works

But you can see the theory of the average break point and how all the 4's give all the w's ?

[brad01]

The beauty is you can always play MDB+ bets as well !

[trillion]

So heres the tracking of all patterns of the entire shoe:

3-4, 4-4, 5-4, 1-3, 5-4, 3-4, 4-4, 6-4, 7-4, 3-4, 4-5, 2-4, 1-4, 2-6, 5-5, 3-6, 4-7, 1-4, 5-4, 1-3, 2-9, 6-5, 5-6, 6-4

you can see from the last numbers of the tracking digits (1-(4)) that it averages 4 pretty consistently right form the start.

Towards the end it raises slightly.

On average the break point sits between 4 - 6 from shoe to shoe I found from my experience

Looking at this one starting at 4 if we flat bet a break of 4 the whole way through, moving on after a win or loss and not chasing the break past 1 bet we get

WWWWWWWWWLWWLLLLWWLLLW

14W

8L

+6 flat bet

up as you win would have killed it

Hope this helps people understand how this works and ask questions if you still don't

This is a pretty consistent average on this shoe so its a good example but there are many more ways to play this to give you a higher average and get onto runs etc

Towards the end when the average rose up to 5 - 6 I would possibly have raised the break point rather than keep it at 4 when it was incurring losses but for simplicity's sake I played it at 4 the whole way through.

An average is exactly that an average and so with the very consistent average of 4 right at the start you would expect it to rise towards the end of the shoe to put the overall average between 4 - 6 which it did

Brad, I have noticed that post #3 and post #8 the patterns are in a different order.

Would you please let everyone know the posting # which you are using to determine your patterns?????

I realize that you will posting a shoe in which you won on 14 different bets and lost 8 different bets.

PLEASE, PLEASE posting the order of patterns that you are following, so everyone can follow when you are betting and WHY you are betting.

Very impressive winning 6 units by FLAT BETTING.

You have experimented OUTSIDE of the BOX with a new way to play baccarat with success that is very intriguing and unusual.

Continued success and thanks you for teaching everyone on the FORUM another way to interpret the decisions at the baccarat tables.

Edited October 8, 2015 by trillion

[brad01]

It is clear I have not explained myself clearly enough - its easy to assume others will be able to get what's in your mind easily but a picture speaks 1000 words they say so I will upload a scoresheet with actual play from Kevins shoe

Trillion I have renumbered the patterns which I did comment on somewhere and the reason I did that was to put them in a logical order from most choppy to most streaky:

1. PBPB

2. PPBPPB

3. BBPBBP

4. PPBBPPBB

5. PPPBBB

6. PPPPPP

7. BBBBBB

Initially they had no logic to the order.

Sorry for the confusion I will upload the scoresheet asap