I created a spread sheet + few questions

[Try]

Hi everybody!

I've joined this forum about 2 weeks ago and studied the materials so far.

I have modified the wonderful 4D Analyzer spreadsheet so that:

1. I can put my bets and units and the spreadsheet is keeping the score.
2. It keeps the SAP score
3. It calculates Win/Lose percentage.

I've submitted the spreadsheet in downloads section, so all of you can use it if you want.

 

Now the question:

I'm playing in places that shuffle the cards by hand. What system would be the best? NOR, last 3 by brad01 or MDB+?

 

Thank you in advance for all the help!

Edited March 16, 2016 by Try

[Pando]

An excellent tool for all of us, many thanks

You will have no problem winning at this game for sure

regards

Pando

[brad01]

Hi Try,

Thanks for contributing to the forum with the 4D analyser mod.

In regards to hand shuffled cards you will expect to see some bias there.

There has been a lot of talk back and forth about hand shuffled produces this, factory shuffle produces that.

NOR is designed for hand shuffle

MDB+ is designed for factory

The above statements may have some legitimacy to it but in reality its not that easy to win with NOR on hand shuffle nor is it just that easy to win with MDB+ for factory shuffled cards

There is an overlap - you can find sections of bias in factory AND you can find MDB+ bets in hand shuffle.

You never really know what you are going to get.

As kachatz (25 year veteran player / member) says: We are facing minefields out there today.

My advice is to do what you are doing and read everything and TRY everything!

Eventually you will find a technique you like that will suit your personality, your method of play, the type of shoes you often encounter

You will create your own style that works for you.

Whether it be MDB+, NOR , 4D, 5D, SAP exploits, 3EM, or a combination you will find a way to gain that better than 50% edge over the casino.

And if your not sure of something and something is bugging you then ask people here - we will answer you.

Last advice from me: Whatever strategy you decide to play to make your bet selection there are 2 other aspects to gambling which are just as important and in fact MORE IMPORTANT:

How much will you bet and when and how you manage your BR

Psychology and mental training - patience, control your emotions, stick to the game plan etc etc

A LAST COMMENT THAT THE NEW ASPECT TO THIS FORUM WHICH MAKES IT UNIQUE TO EVERY OTHER FORUM IS THE STATS FOR PROFIT SOFTWARE AND THE ABILITY FOR US TO DTERMINE CASINO DEPENDANT BIASES. IF WE CAN DO THAT AS KEITH HAS BEEN SAYING THEN IT MAY ALL COME DOWN TO OPPOSITES VS REPEATS AND AN UP AS YOU WIN PROGRESSION  - DONT FORGET TO CONSIDER THIS AS KEITH AND MIKE HAVE INVESTED A LOT OF TIME AND MONEY FOR US TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS.

All the best

Brad 

[Try]

Thanks for the replies!

I'm trying to use SAP, NOR and your last 3 events method at the same time to choose what looks steady. Still learning.

I have learned one thing so far: you can't win every shoe, but almost in every shoe I find myself on the plus side at some point, therefore I'm working on my discipline. Not only a hard stop loss is needed (I'm still deciding on that but it seems like -6 is a good idea as I'm using 1,2 sometimes 1,2,3 progression), but also I need to learn not to give back the winnings.

Brad01, I've started reading your last 3 events topic. I'm on 4th page, so a bit more to read. How have you been doing for the last month?

[brad01]

+44 units until the other night played when very tired

9 units to make back.

I still have those lapses every so often unfortunately

[Wendel]

13 hours ago, Try said:

Thanks for the replies!

I'm trying to use SAP, NOR and your last 3 events method at the same time to choose what looks steady. Still learning.

I have learned one thing so far: you can't win every shoe, but almost in every shoe I find myself on the plus side at some point, therefore I'm working on my discipline. Not only a hard stop loss is needed (I'm still deciding on that but it seems like -6 is a good idea as I'm using 1,2 sometimes 1,2,3 progression), but also I need to learn not to give back the winnings.

Brad01, I've started reading your last 3 events topic. I'm on 4th page, so a bit more to read. How have you been doing for the last month?

Good thought Try

We should put "you can't win every shoe" in a prominent place on the "cheat sheet". I, for one need to be reminded time & again.

Edited March 19, 2016 by Wendel
SPACING

[Try]

23 hours ago, brad01 said:

+44 units until the other night played when very tired

9 units to make back.

I still have those lapses every so often unfortunately

+44 units sounds good. That is over how many shoes?

[brad01]

Hi Try,

I average 2 -3 units per shoe

Sometimes I play a partial shoe and only target 1 unit

Because I have a lot of commitments in my business I usually play very early when I wake up or late when I'm tired so not really ideal

That's why I have to lower my win target to be very low and only take the best bets

I would say average 20 shoes but most only partially played.

Have you read my concept of base x 10 level up in Money Management?

I'm striving to complete 2 of those which means once completed I will be playing 100 x my base unit and that will be enough for full time.

That's 59 units x 2 = 118 units to win to complete.

Of course you have losing sessions, commission depletion, and losses due to level up crossover to consider.

I was real close to completing my first base x 10 and then 2 losing sessions of total 9 units

Now a bit of time off to practise and then keep climbing. 

[ekotr]

where is this downloads section?

[brad01]

Premium section I believe

 

[avion]

I waited a couple of days to reply to Brads honesty, being transparent and open in him sharing not only about his loss, but also his honesty about being too tired.  

It's been said, doing what we do in casinos, "is a very lonely life".    So pause for a moment and think about that statement.

Why is it lonely?  Simply because it feels like no one cares.  I went to Vegas a few years back for a month.  Yes, I won the entire time I was there.  I went by myself purposely to not have any distractions.  The last night there, I looked at my winnings, and I literally cried myself to sleep.  Why?  Because I had no one there that cared, and no one to share it with.  I blamed no one but myself for that.  I came back home with one of the emptiest feelings inside me I have ever known.

As members of BTC, and as human beings.......we need to care......and genuinely care about each other.  Be there to celebrate our wins, and be there even more to console, learn, and stand with each other in our losses.  I know the shame and loneliness deep inside when a loss takes place, and you don't tell anyone, which only makes the darkness become deeper inside.  

So I commend you highly Brad, for having the guts to share your loss.  No, it wasn't the end of the world, but it hurts none the less.   

A winner cares when he loses.  A winner cares when he wins.  A loser doesn't care if he loses and a loser doesn't care if he wins.  

Brad, you are a WINNER.......because you care, and that makes you the biggest winner of all.

So what say you my brothers?  Do you care? 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2016 by avion

[avion]

I strongly suggest you watch the movie..."For love of the Game" with Kevin Costner in it.  

Watch what happens to him, alone in his room, after pitching a perfect game.  See it and feel it.  

Edited March 22, 2016 by avion

[Action Mike]

On ‎3‎/‎22‎/‎2016 at 7:11 PM, avion said:

I waited a couple of days to reply to Brads honesty, being transparent and open in him sharing not only about his loss, but also his honesty about being too tired.  

It's been said, doing what we do in casinos, "is a very lonely life".    So pause for a moment and think about that statement.

Why is it lonely?  Simply because it feels like no one cares.  I went to Vegas a few years back for a month.  Yes, I won the entire time I was there.  I went by myself purposely to not have any distractions.  The last night there, I looked at my winnings, and I literally cried myself to sleep.  Why?  Because I had no one there that cared, and no one to share it with.  I blamed no one but myself for that.  I came back home with one of the emptiest feelings inside me I have ever known.

As members of BTC, and as human beings.......we need to care......and genuinely care about each other.  Be there to celebrate our wins, and be there even more to console, learn, and stand with each other in our losses.  I know the shame and loneliness deep inside when a loss takes place, and you don't tell anyone, which only makes the darkness become deeper inside.  

So I commend you highly Brad, for having the guts to share your loss.  No, it wasn't the end of the world, but it hurts none the less.   

A winner cares when he loses.  A winner cares when he wins.  A loser doesn't care if he loses and a loser doesn't care if he wins.  

Brad, you are a WINNER.......because you care, and that makes you the biggest winner of all.

So what say you my brothers?  Do you care? 

 

 

Good Stuff Avion.  I agree.  I feel for everyone, as I too have made the mistake of playing tired, losing bankrolls due to foolish bets, etc.  One of the key functions of StatsForProfits is to also track bet units.  I did this as part of my initial design to reinforce the psychology factor of large bets and dealing with losses, etc.

[avion]

Thank you Mike.   I just wanted to pause, and remember we are all human beings behind this computer, and we need each other for positive reinforcement.

Thank you also for the good advice and wisdom of using StatsForProfits, not just to track shoes, but also for bet tracking.  Excellent advice.    

 

[Wendel]

 

On 3/18/2016 at 6:57 AM, Try said:

Thanks for the replies!

I'm trying to use SAP, NOR and your last 3 events method at the same time to choose what looks steady. Still learning.

I have learned one thing so far: you can't win every shoe, but almost in every shoe I find myself on the plus side at some point, therefore I'm working on my discipline. Not only a hard stop loss is needed (I'm still deciding on that but it seems like -6 is a good idea as I'm using 1,2 sometimes 1,2,3 progression), but also I need to learn not to give back the winnings.

Brad01, I've started reading your last 3 events topic. I'm on 4th page, so a bit more to read. How have you been doing for the last month?

Hi Try,

I am using a 1,2, 1  progression (with a few tweaks ) or flatbetting. For me , part of the motivation to use the more conservative prog was to be able to withstand losing a 3iar and continue, so I kept the -8 stoploss recommended in the NOR manual, and the other money management suggestions aimed at preserving your wins.

On the other hand , if you have lots of tables to choose from -6 may be more suitable.