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I love your analogies, Ellis haha. Helps to get me in the right state of mind when playing. I know you talked about this before in a different thread but I can't seem to find it... About switching when you are losing or hit your stop loss. Last time I quit and didn't switch because I was ahead and wanted to take the win. But what do you recommend when you hit your stop loss? Do you change tables/take a break. Or pick up where you left off in the same shoe with a different system (with a 1 bet)? By the way... is -8 always the general consensus for the stop loss? I know -12 has been talked about. I sort of like 12 when playing U1D2... But I guess it's like you said it depends on the conditions at the time. I suppose if you are riding it out then -12 is ok.

Hey Ellis - just curious why you didn't go ATR for the 2 bet and then OTR for the 3 bet (since you are in Mode2)? That's what I would have done and lost to the 6iar betting my 3 bet it would go 7iar. But after that go on to win the next 4 and 2 bets on the ZZ. Actually what I usually do unless I am ahead a lot is once I win the my first OTR bet in Mode2 is wait to see if the run goes to 5iar. If it does then bet ATR for two bets. This would have won against the 6iar. If lost then bet the 3 bet OTR hoping it went to 8iar. Then repeat. Is that a good way to play do you think? And what do you think is a better way to handle runs - on off on off? Or play the run with Mode2?

Just curious on anyone's thoughts about switching. I know what to look for and what events for each system. But since OTBL has such a wide coverage it makes me apprehensive about switching (once I start in an OTBL shoe). A recent trip the shoes were OTBL. I played the first one and won +15 without even thinking - almost all events were 2s and 3s both straight and ZZ. Wish they were all like that haha. Now the second shoe started out kind of teetering on the edge of OTBL and S40. But def more towards S40 I would say. I kept hitting my 4 and 5 bets but was winning them. In the back of my head I knew I should be playing S40 so I quit when I got to +4 playing OTBL. I've become so proficient at OTBL and it has such a wide coverage that I'm afraid to switch once in it. And I am concerned that a trigger to switch might just be a only rough spot in the shoe. So am am just curious - is it better to switch when everything sais switch or to stick it out with OTBL (or whatever system you start in and/or you don't hit your stop loss) and shoot for a lower stop win? I guess both are a bit of a risk... I was playing quarters - so a $100 on a tough shoe was fine by me so I chose to quit instead of switch.

For F - when you are making your choice to go OTR (switch sides) on the weak side do you use a count for 2's vs. 3's+ to determine the mode or do you use the 3rd bet rule? When I play OTB4L I use the 3rd bet rule for mode 2 and 3, but I use a count for mode 1. But for OTB4L the 3rd bet rule pertains to 4s and 5s... and in F the 3rd bet rule pertains to 2s and 3s, which "should" be more stable. So I don't really know the best way to determine the mode for F? By the way I know why this forum uses the vertical scorecard, but for those who are having trouble grasping F it might be worth a shot to go off of the horizontal tote board - couldn't be easier to see strong vs weak run lengths. And you could also still keep track on a vertical scorecard as well if u wanted...

In the fourth bet from the bottom where there is a choice between the mode 2 and 3... since this is the first time faced with that choice what is the best way to do it? I have read before to go mode 2, go mode 3 or don't make the bet until the mode is established.

Nice! That's great to hear you turned thier bullshit against them. I will try that next time I’m in bad conditions. Pre-shuffled cards shouldn’t be legal. You have no idea it it’s fixed or if it’s short-decked or anything. They do shuffle them before the game and you get to cut. So I guess that is better than boxed order? I don’t know really. I know a dealer and she said when the pit first opened, the casino got taken for a lot of money. Then they changed the way they shuffled and they have never lost like that since. It’s kind of hit or miss with those tables… I have had really good shoes and some not so good shoes (mostly when dealer doesn’t break). I can usually to hold my own by playing the clumps, but sometimes they aren’t really clean clumps and a lone high or lone low shows up at the worst possible time. Maybe it’s because they use 6 decks in the high limit.

Wow what happened? Bad trip. I was in the high limit room… it was Saturday, but it was early in the day right after they opened at noon with new cards playing head to head. The cards are pre-shuffled. The cards were relatively random, but no matter what I would lose my pat hands to a better pat hand and get outdrawn too. If I had 17, dealer had 18. If I had 18, dealer had 19 etc. And the few clumps I played, I still got outdrawn or would have broke either way. The dealer did break some, but I would lose almost every decent hand to a better one. I’ve never seen anything like it before. I would lose three in a row more than once and then switch tables and the same thing would happen. I can understand one table sure, but it was the whole pit it seemed. I don’t know what was up… but it had to be the card prep. Anyone ever witness this before? Any ways to combat this? I guess just not playing… but I couldn’t even get past the table testing stage. Then it was too late.

Yea that’s a good point. That brings me to another question: I feel like I could have won more by noting what was running. The shoe was random, but I did notice a few clumps. For instance, there was one point where 10’s were running... I had a 9 vs. an 8 up. I wanted to double down, but I didn’t because everything was random overall. As it turns out, I would have won that double with a 19 vs. dealer 18. How do you decide if and when to play the small number of clumps in a random shoe with enhanced card play? Another reason I feel like I could have won more was adjusting my betting prog better. I feel like I stayed with a 112 and a 123 too long. Also I backed down too much. How quickly do you recommend moving up to a 134 and 146? When do you recommend moving back down? After winning/losing a certain number of 2 and 3 bets? Also... a question about the stop loss. If we are in the middle of a progression, but the next bet would take us below the stop loss, do we make that bet? That’s what happened to me - I got out with my 2 stacks, but I was on a 2 bet that would have taken me below my stop loss. I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if I played and won, since the shoe was going good... THANKS

They just put in a new High Stakes section at the casino in my area. I was there last Friday… I normally don’t play on Friday nights because it’s too crowded. The green tables were way too crowded, but I noticed that the high stakes room was virtually empty all night ($100 min). So I figured I would test it out. Boy was I nervous, since I’m not used to playing that high… but I had faith in the teachings here. The shoe was great, the dealer broke A LOT and I ended up walking away with $2000. All just using basic strategy with our betting prog. After watching clumped games over and over and then watching a good random game, it really opens your eyes. But that makes me wonder: Since casinos know basic strategy can beat random cards, and the high limit tables are the best most random games for the most part… how can they even allow that to happen and even have high limit tables? If people play high limit, you can pretty much assume they play and know basic strategy very well. Do the casinos still win those tables because those people don’t bet correctly or know when to stop? Or are they just hoping for more players so it will clump? Makes me think they would use some card prep trick...

Interesting post. I can’t image only flat betting… I wouldn’t even play. Sometimes however if I’m winning most of my first bets I know I’m at a good table and I’ll just flat bet… I’ll still shoot for the same number of units won, but I’ll bet higher. The thought of using a positive progression crossed my mind if it’s going well, but I’ve never done it. What are your thoughts on positive progressions in certain situations?

Yea now I notice why the Key Card is accurate and why it is not accurate and when to use it as a play decision based the other factors in the round. I'm still practicing and I feel like I'm getting better than most anyone since they all play by the book. Its funny when you watch a person and you know exactly what they are going to do no matter what the circumstances are simply because that's what they think they are supposed to do. Geeze that used to be me... doubling down on an 11 at third base with lows running. Haha crazy. I would love to make the high stakes seminar coming up, but I know deep down that I am still not ready. Do you think there will be any NBJ seminars in the future or did I miss the boat on that one?

Just have a quick question on card fall. I know that I need to augment my decision making based on the overall shoe. But I just wanted to ask a general question on lows vs. highs. Which ones exactly are considered low… Is that 2-7? And Highs are 8-10? Aces swing. Following the Tri Point the last three cards – what exactly does constitutes favoring one or the other… is it simply 2 out of the 3? Or does it matter the order the fall? If the last two were either both high or both low then the answer is obvious. But what if it falls high low high… is that considered random or is it high since two out of three are high AND the last one was high? THANKS

Cool thanks for advice guys. I’m really taking learning and playing NBJ seriously. I am tired of clumsily playing and just hoping for the best. I know that top performers in any aspect of life realize that mastery is a journey not a destination. I know I have to practice and just reading or listening to people talk about how to do something won’t make me better at it :-)

Hmm so we’re not using the PIT chart or worrying about the hole card anymore, unless it’s highly credible? Tripoint – so is that following the same basic guidelines as the Big Player play in the Team Play Manual… hit on a stiff hand if the last 3 cards dealt favored lows and stand if they favored highs? Does it matter what the dealer up card is on our decision to hit or stand on a stiff hand? In my last post I had the example of a dealer with a 10 up card with highs running and you recommended hitting. But the general rule would be to stand… “When they favor high, we should hit if we need a high but if we are stiff and the last 3 cards were tens that is the time to stand stiff, betting the dealer will break. (Because you are most likely to get a breaking high if you hit) Yes, it's a bad bet but it is our best bet under the circumstances we face.†I think I understand NBJ pretty well at this point, but my only real question/concern is what to do if you have a stiff hand and you think the dealer has a pat hand but highs are running. Reading through the posts on the forum some favor hitting while some favor standing. Sorry if I’m repeating the same questions… it’s hard for me to get across what I want to say sometimes through writing. Thanks again for your support.

Ellis, I have a quick question on NBJ card play I have been wondering about. I know this is a really basic question, but I just make sure I’m thinking in the right way. As an example: Ok the game is clumped and you are playing First Base. The dealer up card is a 10. The cards leading up to and the 3rd base player’s second card are high – this indicates that the hole card read is high so use the variable strategy chart. The chart says to stand with 15 and 16 if highs are running, which makes perfect sense to avoid breaking. But doesn’t this hand also indicate that the dealer probably has an 18, 19, or 20 and by not hitting you are giving the dealer the win? I guess it’s just a bad situation and there is not much you can do about it to turn it into a win. I did notice while playing this scenario a bunch of times that usually the dealer did in fact have that 20 and if I hit I would have busted anyway. Is this a hand where you should surrender? On a side note I was wondering if the WCB manual has different card play strategies or is it more for theory and polishing your NBJ game. THANKS

I just wanted to jump in a say that out of everything I’ve learned on this forum including baccarat and blackjack (although I’m not as experienced with BJ yet). I have to say OBT4L is the best piece of information for me personally. I usually only play those shoes. I will play S40 also for chop sometimes. I think F is cool, but I don’t do very well with F so I don't play streaky shoes... I have trouble with the mode changes from weak to strong side. It’s pretty hard to lose I can attest that in a strong OBT4L shoe you will often be the only one winning. The only time I ever lose in OBT4L is when straight run and ZZ run modes change following each other back to back. It sucks when that happens, but fortunately that doesn’t happen a lot. When that happens usually the other players win haha - they ALL play TB4L no matter what. Sometimes I notice that TB4L would win in some shoes. I simply don’t play them because its not part of NOR which tries to avoid shoes that are choppy then streaky. Hmm maybe F would be good in those shoes. Ellis, do you ever recommend playing TB4L if the shoe looks good for it? Or just find better tables for NOR?

Is there ever a reason to simply bet 1,2 against a 3 in a row and thats it? And just never make a 3 bet - wait until its time to bet opposites again. Since once you get to a 3 bet with your prog within a prog it's breaking even anyway. Do you think you can win units in the long run this way? I don't know, just tinking out loud.

That’s what I initially thought, but second guessed myself. Ok I totally understand now. Thanks for clearing that up and for your ongoing support, Ellis. I hope that was my last “newbie†question. I think I should be ok to really start diving into this now.

I was reading over the practice section in the NBJ manual and noticed this: "Do not play head to head unless you plan to play it in the casinos. That is a different game altogether. Head to head play will be one of our continued education topics." Is the continued education covered in the third base section of the manual? Or is there more info on it in other manuals or on the forum, etc.? I would love to read as much information on it as possible... but I don't want to jump the gun and get ahead of myself before I learn the fundamentals. Do you recommend learning third base first and applying it to head to head games to get proficient... and then move up to more advanced continued education?

It’s pretty easy to find head to head games (usually quarters) where I play. What if the tables are just empty and nobody is playing? I won’t be able to count the high lows coming out to determine the randomness. Let’s say it’s an early weekday afternoon at a no midshoe entry table. Should I just play anyway with a 112 3rd base progression and just see? Should I always start with a 112 progression and raise it no matter what? I have an 8 deck shoe with random cards and have been practicing basic strategy to get my feet wet. I’m just not sure when to change the progressions… it’s hard to tell sometimes how well or not well I’m doing with a 112. I guess when you’re breaking even, that’s actually a good sign to move forward? If I’m not losing 3 in a row, then move forward? When I start off the bat with 146 it works pretty darn well. Would you ever recommend starting at 146 in the casino if I know the cards are random? I must admit, I’m a little nervous with a 146 with real money… but I know that’s what makes the money and should be used when conditions are good… and I am gaining confidence with this :-)

Thanks for clearing that up. It makes more sense now. I am going to use the table selection process when playing regardless. But hearing that head to head 3rd base is the best game in the casino is good to hear. There are many “no midshoe entry†games at my casino that are usually played head to head most of the night. I assume that this is a great sign that the cards should be random? Also, about those continuous shuffler machines… there are some tables that don’t even have a shoe, they just put the cards in the machine and keep dealing continuously. Would they be random cards? I know I need to first qualify if the cards are random, but would this be a good sign to play 3rd base head to head/ few players if I could? Kind of makes me wonder why the casino would have them.

Oh I am game. I’ve downloaded and read over the manuals. I’ve also read through the forum posts non-stop. This terminology is totally new to me and I want to make sure I get this correct before I continue on learning: Zero Proximity is for counting with head to head/low number of players. Random is good. Correct? NBJ is for hit and hole card recognizing with 4-5 players. Clumping is good. Correct? I eventually want to learn both, but I would prefer to play head to head, since a lot of tables at my casino have no midshoe entry and they are always open. I don’t have experience in counting however. Is Zero Proximity still a good idea or would NBJ be better to start for a newbie? Given the same skill amount in each, which wins more consistently, do you think?

Do you ever recommend playing the progression within a progression OTR/ATR when the mode IS biased? Just in case if you wanted to play conservative regardless of mode. Even if its mode 3, but with it but just bet 1 unit, 2 etc? Obviously if it kept staying in mode 3 you would be missing out of units since you would only be winning back 1 unit instead of 3.

I live in Pittsburgh and I go to the Rivers Casino. There are only two baccarat tables there too which is super frustrating. Just like you said it is often stacked two deep. I actually tried to play there part time, but I had to give that up. It really isn’t the best situation – since there are only two tables, table selection isn’t always possible. I just didn’t have the patience to play there part time… I started to find myself playing shoes that I knew weren’t very good which is a huge no-no! I was talking to a dealer and she said they are getting a third baccarat table though. So even one more table should be a lot more helpful I would think. Me and some friends are planning a trip to the Rivers Casino in Chicago next month. I’m curious how many baccarat tables are at that one. Ever been or hear anything about it?

Coming from someone who has been playing for so long. Why do you think that is? The fact that biases do exist - even in games other than baccarat. I remember when I didn't know any better and would bet against biases thinking they shouldn't happen. Now when I see people play backwards, I just get a big smirk on my face. I'm glad I found this forum - thanks for sharing your knowledge!