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Here is a shoe I just played from my 8 deck shoe. Completley random. This is how I interpreted the Skip rules. Please let me know if I made any mistakes. I will take it down if it’s not correct so nobody gets confused. Obviously this is only a single shoe and results will vary. But you can see that high 2’s clumped together can cause some problems. There was a lot going on in this shoe, but it handles it well. Started off kind of rough, but it held up in the end. I don’t know – maybe somebody can find something meaningful from it. But this is Ellis’ system! Not mine – he would know more about it. You will also notice that the MDB+ bets all also would have won. BUT there were 5 2’s without a 3+. It would have won if you waited for 3 2iar’s to start betting. Good luck at the crawl this weekend everyone!

You are the man Ellis. I took out my 8 deck random shoe and played this twice and won + 20 both times. Not bad for learning how to play the system in 5 minutes! I hit -10 at one point but skyrocketed back up. The only thing I don't understand is how it is a 4hi system. I must had done something wrong because I got to a 5 bet. This happened when I was already waiting for 2 players to start betting player again (previously lost the 3). Lost the 2 and 3 bet on bank (which now made me wait for 2 banks before continuing). Picked up where I left off with a 4 and 5 bet on player. Is that correct? Also what do you recommend the stop loss be? Or maybe at a certain bet level just start over at 1,1?

I don't want to derail or interject any discussion on net betting. I'm just trying to help. There was a random post, Ellis that you sent out about a year ago for playing pre-shuffled cards. I can't seem to find the post right now - I'll send it when I find it... I know I have it saved somewhere. It involved playing U1D1 on the dominant side of PvB in the last 5 hands (but not switching on an opposite to avoid losing to ZZ runs). I've been playing this way exclusively for a while now and have had good success. Works well in preshuffled cards. This or some version of this might be good to combine MDB+ with.

Now I know why they are called Terrible Twos. I primarily played OTB4L for the longest time and I always loved seeing TT runs. I must say playing MDB and MDB+ are great but the losses I had were almost always due to TT runs. I like the idea of picking a system based on twos (OTB or TB4L). I replayed some shoes switching due to SAP vs. not switching and sometime one worked better than the other and vice versa. Can't find any consistent trigger for a TT run. Tried incorporating every count imaginable in varying degrees. Even using 4D. I'm staring to go mad. Maybe things are as good as they are gona get and just take the inevatable loss here and there? OTB4L - race to get out of the shoe with a win before a straight run into a ZZ run. TB4L - race to get out of the shoe with a win before a TT run.

Wow a few of those shoes playing black chips, you're looking at close to 20k. How high would you go with u1d1? If there was a ZZ run would you back off until it ends?

Now that is interesting! Or even use the "3rd bet" rule. 2nd bet for s40m1 for the secondary prog. Just thinking out loud...

I asked the pit boss and dealers and they said that the cards (Rivers) are preshuffled. They actually just got different cards from another company. They come in preshuffled bundles and put into the shuffling machine. They don't seem too concerned about the "patterns". I played once and the shoe messed up causing miss deals. This caused the electronic reader to not read the cards right which made the tote board wrong. I was shocked that they didn't reset the board. I left and told the pitboss the rest of the shoe will be displayed wrong. He just smiled a me with a smug smirk. I'll never jump in mid shoe there after I witnessed that. I played new shoes and never had a problem since though.

Very true. I use the -5 stop loss if I'm simply losing and can't make any headway (but if that's the case, then you are in the wrong system and need to switch... something I need to work on and get better at). But if I get to -5 due to a rough spot or a bad "run" type that happened, then ill push on using a -8 stop loss. Chip losses due to a bad "run" is much different than chip losses due to the overall shoe progress in my opinion.

For me I consider a tough shoe when the selected system hits a run it doesn't like - then you have to grind it out. Playing 2HI and 1HI for S40 M1 with a 123 secondary prog can take a while to recover. So far I won 17 out of 19 shoes. The two shoes I lost were when playing S40 M1 and I hit a TT run. And the other was OTB4L and I hit a back to back straight run into a ZZ run and wasn't able to recover playing the runs. Still at an average of 3 units. Mostly because almost every time I hit +5 I lose the next bet and have to capture +4. Happened last night... hit +5 early playing bas40. Lost 1 unit and left. Immediately after it was nothing but 1s and 2s with long ZZ runs. Would have been +20 no prob. Made me sick. Keeps happening to me!

That's where I play. So far I won 14 out of 16 shoes using MDB. I practiced at home with 50 shoes before I played with real money at the casino. MDB does work – but you have to be disciplined and be ok with having to ride out a shoe for a win even if it’s only a unit or two. There will be rough spots and you won’t always be in the positive throughout the shoe. My average is 3 units per shoe... I'm winning but I still need to get better with my application of SAP and switching when needed. I hope that will get my average up to 5 units. I've never been to Vegas, so I can’t compare... but the shoes at the rivers can be tough sometimes in my opinion. Sometimes they are easy though... I don't know - I think that happens everywhere. I don’t keep a scorecard so I can’t post any shoes. Maybe I will try to snap a picture of the tote board the next time a tough shoe comes up and we can dissect it here on the forum lol.

Yea your right good catch haha. I counted too fast... on my phone with a small screen. Sorry for the inaccuracy!

Good stuff. Looks like at the end SAP is 8 | 6 | 12 | 0 Would you still continue on with OTBL (if you were to continue on) or would you switch to S40M1? I know 1s and 4+s are better, but 1s and 3s still are ok. I'm guessing that the right choice is to continue with OTBL. Since 3s are still high. 1s caught up to outnumber 2s, BUT that was only because of a ZZ run and not because 1s aren't dominating. So my question is do we not give as much credit for SAP number changes due to a run of some type vs. SAP number changes due to a change in bias?

I am usually able to get out of a shoe early enough with profit. But I must say the most trouble I've gotten into wasn't shoes "all over the place", but shoes that go from one clear bias to another midshoe. Its basically like 2 separate shoes. It doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen enough to take notice. When would you make the switch? Literally when the SAP numbers indicate? Or after a certain spread/time? Some shoes change and stay that way and some change only to change right back. Right now I've just been riding it out and can usually win a unit or two or break even. But I don't like doing that and know I gotta switch. I like the idea of SAP but fear switching too early because some shoes do return to how they started.

It's hard to argue with the math of S40M3. That used to be the only way I played... I thought I was invincible at first. Then I kept hitting my stop loss during rough patches shoe after shoe and knew I couldn't solely play that. I don't know though - dj is doing WAY better than I ever did with it. I think he is better at table selection than I was. I only have 3 tables that are usually full so I sort of gotta go for it. I think there is a place for it in the +5 system though. Maybe some form of the secondary prog is the answer over the long haul? But if that's the case, I can't help but thinking of U1D2 which we already have for NOR.

Hey Ellis just curious on your thoughts about a shoe with low 1 liners that's not super streaky but just streaky enough where it causes OTB some problems. Where there are a lot of intermixed 3,4 and 5 iars. I seen one the other day and thought to myself "alternating streaks - ok S40M1". But there was no chop and the secondary prog betting a 2 will stay 2 seemed questionable. Also when to bet with or against the run was questionable (majority or prior length). My casino is preshuffled but I guess this streak bias just crept in. Would you play NOR or just flat bet repeats in this situation? I just went to a different table and played OTB and won +4 lol. But I hate seeing a strong streak bias shoe go by... those are big money makers.

Wasn't it a 1,2 ATR and then 1 back OTR if the 1,2 lost. Thought 7's were the culprit? (Provided we went off the run at 4iar)

I like to wait for three events (2's and 3+). If there are 1's in between them then I'll play S40. If two out of three are 2iars, then ill play BaS40. If two out of three are 3+ iar, then I'll play S40M1. So simple and I do it the same way every time. Works well.

If it was that easy the game wouldn't exist. Just gotta take the good shoes and make some cash. Walk away on the bad shoes. Discipline and patience. The game is a processes. It's tough to win but it is possible over the long haul with good money management.

Problem is even good OTB4L shoes can have 4 iars both straight and ZZ. And if that happens back to back you're gona lose. Hmm maybe trying OTB4L mode 1 is worth looking into. Might be a lot of 0 bets with that though... seems like it would be tough to get to +5 that way due to lack of bets.

Ellis what are your thoughts on simply waiting for the run the end after your win your OTR bets to a 4,5,6 or whatever it might be when it's time to go off the run?

Yea that's right. It resets after any win after 0 on your secondary prog. Think of it as starting over once you clear your secondary prog with a win. Try not to think of "winning" or "losing" the 0 bet. It's not really a bet... It just determines to go OTR or ATR with your secondary (123) bets.

Nice shoe. What made you continue after hand #27? Is it because you noticed the shoes at that casino are very choppy? I know there is a reccomendation to capture +4 once you hit your goal of +5. If you lost the 2 bet at hand #28 you would be up 2 units. But it worked out well... +18 is very very good for your average.

I think we are just missing BaOTB. If the webinar is back on schedule, would that be included? So far in 40 practice shoes I am up 97 units. A 2.5 unit average. I lost 6 shoes and quit at 0 a few times. Literally the only losing and 0 shoes were BaOTB. Never lost once playing BaS40 or BaM1. OTB4L (U1D2) was my favorite system to play, but BaOTB is my least. (Admittedly don't know the full rules) They were clear OTB shoes but every time there would be a streak followed by a chop and vise versa. So then I would simply wait for a 2iar to start betting... and I would win some, but that of course also produced the 0 (break even) shoes. Not complaining. 2.5 units average isn't great... But I'll take 97 units any day. Of course I could just choose not to play those shoes... but that's the most common shoe type. Would be at the casino all day waiting around.

I think the problem was using Mode 2. If it's confirmed chop.... then using the secondary prog (assuming you are playing the +5 system) would have you in Mode 3 which gets a chip back beating all 3's. It still isn't a great situation having back to back 3's like that in a chop system. Depending on how the shoe was after those 3's, I may or may not have switched to OTB4L or S40M1.

If you lost the 3 bet would you then stop betting and wait out the TTs? Possibly re-access?