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The 150th Running Test Shoe


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This is a momentous occasion. Well, kind of. It marks the 150th shoe tested/played with MVS+.

This will be long because I’m in a chatty mood and I want to try to explain the how and why of my play on this shoe. If it makes sense to you, we’re BOTH in big trouble I think!!

Anyway, the wifey and friends decide late last night that they have a bunch of free play, match play, lose play, food and sweepstakes coupons that HAVE to be used by today. Evidently during the late night planning she forgot about a big dinner tonight with some city muckety-mucks that we’re supposed to be at, center table and all that.

To move this along, they decide to leave here at 8am to get a WHOLE HOUR in of slot play and then drive back to make this dinner. Well, I can get a shoe done in an hour for sure AND it would be the 150th test shoe so why not tag along and make it at least worth my time?

Of course they completely forgot about putting gas in the car, school busses on country roads and the usual accident on US41 by the bait shop. But I digress.

I usually walk around for 15-20 minutes or so to get myself “acclimated†to the casino and get settled down from the rush trip in. This time it took about 5 minutes so I wasn’t really happy about that. As it turned out the shoe played nicely with only a few real decisions to make.

Namely at hand 36 where my 3rd “6†came up in the second column. Normally this would have me out of the shoe but it had been going well so I elected to make one more wager just to test the water. It loses, I’m done, it wins and I move on. It wins. Same decision at hand 38.

Hand 41 is tricky. It loses and if I make the normal 2 unit wager next and it loses, I’m down to +5 and really didn’t want to lose half the profit right there so I went with a 1 unit “test the water†bet. Of course it lost. Make the next one a single too, now treading water lightly to try to sneak out a win. Nope, it wasn’t to be. Another lost bet.

This now puts me in a more traditional setting for me. Up +6 in the third column and ready to test for a single wager “flyer†to see if I can continue on. Nope, not today. It loses the third bet and I’m done at +5. Hey! A hundred bucks profit is always good, right? The women wish they could have come out of there with a C-Note, I assure you! They were very quiet on the trip back home.

Here’s the card in all its faded glory. I also ran it using PJ’s NU SAP and it scored well also.

And for the record, the last 50 shoes running MVS+ have produced 39 wins, 11 losers and +234 units at a 78% win rate. This is slightly lower than the earlier 83% reported rates for the first 100 shoes but I think that may be due to a slight change in the wager pattern.

Overall, for the 150 shoes, it’s running at 83.4% and +975.

MVS

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MVS,

I agree with PJ. If you are comfortable with it do the MVS+ thread. Your play-by-play is great. You obviously have a winning approach even if it is not totally clear to you what direction to move. I find it helpful to just dump it out here as a form of therapy.

Edited by TomM
delete ramblings
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Talk about being asleep at the wheel... I thought there already WAS an MVS+ thread!! But I guess not!! Maybe I should at least start a fan club :)

Actually, MVS, maybe you should consider leading a team play (or at least going pro with this) and hitting a couple casinos at once before they figure out counter actions... (or are there?)

Hey, 78% to 83% win rate... NOW THATS IMPRESSIVE!!

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Talk about being asleep at the wheel... I thought there already WAS an MVS+ thread!! But I guess not!!

Audio,

Well, I guess I just kind of assumed that the "Moved to Green Today" thread was pretty much the one with all of the information for "MVS+" as we know it. You can also see how it slowly changed a bit as it got more real world play under its belt. You can see how it's played and more importantly WHY some bets were made, at least from my perspective.

Next live casino run is scheduled for Saturday the 13th and I'd like to at least get three full shoes in. As we won't be on any schedule that day, it should happen.

MVS

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  • 4 weeks later...

This is just an update to the "150th Shoe" thread.

Now currently at the 200 shoe level and still running a good winning percentage.

After 200 shoes we're showing a 78.1% win rate with +1108 units. The last 50 shoes were much harder to play and did require some changes during the shoes to continue to play. Things like a very strong Player or Bank side would have me attempting to change from the predominant OTB4L play to something akin to RD1 earlier than the MVS program would call for.

In spite of this (or because of this) the winning percentage for hands 150-200 was down to 64% although still showing a nice +133 units.

I will now go back and run the same shoes against NU SAP and RD1/n to see how they stack up against each other.

Yes, it is time consuming but luckily, I've got the time! In my initial testing of the other system plans in conjunction with MVS, they are all showing well. I just want to convince myself that any of them is a valid play for most of the tables I see and that others post as "problem shoes". This will also allow me to see any shoes that just kill all three of them and find out what caused the damage!

The spreadsheet that I built will track pretty much any amount of shoes and systems as needed. Right now it's only the three previously mentioned ones but others can be added as they appear. Always good for reference and every shoe played is also carried as a numbered, blank copy that can be reprinted to be played under any system desired. No sense in writing out those things over and over, eh?

Anyway, that's the 200th shoe update from here.

MVS

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

MVS

I play at the Hard Rock in Biloxi...I've heard the HR down your way has a lot more Bac players...

Up here, they never have more than one table going and often I am playing by myself. Believe it or not, I really don't mind since they let me bet both sides if I am trying to get my bearings....

Anyways, one of these days perhaps we can meet and play together down your way ( I live in the Destin area...)

I have a favor...since you have a bunch of test shoes, could you read my HORSE WITH NO NAME post and see what you think vis-a-vis your actual experience? Any questions about what i wrote call me or email me...

Thanks and keep up the good work!

Regards,

kachatz1

kachatz@treomanagement.com

850-687-3128

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  • 2 weeks later...

MVS,

I found your threads and decided to take a closer look at your system. So far I like it a lot. It has beenw working great for me combined with NU SAP and as far as I am aware I actually think you were doing someting like this. It seem like the rules are a bit spread out. I am suprised that more people have not taken a look at your method (or maybe they have and I just missed something) considering that the results have been so good.

Are you still using the 1, 2, 3 progression with a mild increase after a few wins in a row? I have been following a 1,1,2 progression until I reach a profit of 2. Then I deploy the 1,2,3 and I do not alawys make taht 3 bet. Only if I know it wont kill me. and if i win 4 or 5 in a row I will start to increase my bets until a loss.

And all of the rules from the other thread about moving to green are still in play correct?

-wait 3 decisions. If P111/B111, RD1 or TB4L-After loss otb4l

-If comfirmed ZZ then jump on ZZ until end.-after loss -otb4l

If 121 or anything else like that then OTB4L

-Anytime you see 3 in a row just on the 3 in a row (unless SAP tells us that this is not a good idea)

-jump on confirmed zz

-3 losses and wait for paper win.

-Stop loss? I was thinking -8 but seeing how fast this system can get a high socre maybe -12 or -15 for me.

I think I hit on everything. This is what I have gathered while going through your posts.

has anything changed since then?

Thanks

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And all of the rules from the other thread about moving to green are still in play correct?

-wait 3 decisions. If P111/B111, RD1 or TB4L-After loss otb4l

-If comfirmed ZZ then jump on ZZ until end.-after loss -otb4l

If 121 or anything else like that then OTB4L

-Anytime you see 3 in a row just on the 3 in a row (unless SAP tells us that this is not a good idea)

-jump on confirmed zz

-3 losses and wait for paper win.

-Stop loss? I was thinking -8 but seeing how fast this system can get a high socre maybe -12 or -15 for me.

I think I hit on everything. This is what I have gathered while going through your posts.

has anything changed since then?

Thanks

John,

You've got it down pretty well I'd say. And yes, I did up the stop loss to around -10 to -12 depending on how the shoe had been running. -8 just seemed a bit low when playing 1,2,3.

I've also merged the SAP count into it to help decide whether to wait out a bet or jump in on a 3 wager but mostly to confirm the 3 in a rows on either side.

Glad it's working for you and I'm still running shoes with it and testing for a larger database to check all of them against.

Right now my "Big Three" are MVS, NU SAP and Maverick (RD1/F2F3) as played by Mreteuya.

MVS

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member

Hi John,

I'm still playing MVS+, I run several shoes, sometimes it's weak against ZZ runs and with lack of 2s.

I added the OT count and when it's negative like -2/-3 often it's better switch to TBL (if you see ZZs) or RD1 (with more runs).

The SAP chart helps in making this choices.

andrea

bacclover

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ok, I will use the OT count as well the next time I play MVS+. I was playing a shoe last night and I was losing to the ZZ runs with lack of 2's, All of the sudden I realized that TB4L was the method to go with but it was too late. I should have been paying attention to SAP, the OT count will help me with this.

Sometimes I also do not bet on a run of 3. If I see that there are a lot of 3's in the SAP I make another OTB4L bet.

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  • Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
Sometimes I also do not bet on a run of 3. If I see that there are a lot of 3's in the SAP I make another OTB4L bet.

Correct. I do the same. In a strong 3s situations I do a 2 or 3 bet otherwise a 1 if uncertain.

andrea

bacclover

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