Latest practice shoe

[Emeraldeagle]

Here's the latest shoe. Ended with a little over +20 units. It started out neutral but shifted to a strong F a little bit later.

B 1122213417613

Glad I switched systems. Any other advice on what to do when you see a shoe like this? Is walking away better than sitting at a table like this?

[Natural_9]

Good question. I would have entered as OTB4L at hand 6.

[gman72]

Here's the latest shoe. Ended with a little over +20 units. It started out neutral but shifted to a strong F a little bit later.

B 1122213417613

Glad I switched systems. Any other advice on what to do when you see a shoe like this? Is walking away better than sitting at a table like this?

Timely shoe post EE, based on the information we have just been discussing in another thread here about which system to choose based on shoe starts. After the first four plays of 112, I would be thinking chop, so S40M2 all the way. If I jump in at play #5 with S40M2, I'm stopped out at play #14 with a -6 facing a 5 bet. I'm gone.

Now if I just played this shoe straight NOR+(OTB4LM3,U1D2), I start at play #2, hit my lowest score of -3 at play #3 and finish the sequence at +11. I never switched to F. My reason for that is that the SS bias never gets above 2 to 1, even after the 7iar it's still only 15-9 in favor of banker. Yes, it gets streaky, but I don't think any of the events are something that OTB4L can't handle well (ie: a 5iar).

This is just my take on the shoe sequence you've posted. Others may disagree. I'd like to hear, it helps us all learn.

[Wendel]

Timely shoe post EE, based on the information we have just been discussing in another thread here about which system to choose based on shoe starts. After the first four plays of 112, I would be thinking chop, so S40M2 all the way. If I jump in at play #5 with S40M2, I'm stopped out at play #14 with a -6 facing a 5 bet. I'm gone.

Now if I just played this shoe straight NOR+(OTB4LM3,U1D2), I start at play #2, hit my lowest score of -3 at play #3 and finish the sequence at +11. I never switched to F. My reason for that is that the SS bias never gets above 2 to 1, even after the 7iar it's still only 15-9 in favor of banker. Yes, it gets streaky, but I don't think any of the events are something that OTB4L can't handle well (ie: a 5iar).

This is just my take on the shoe sequence you've posted. Others may disagree. I'd like to hear, it helps us all learn.

Hi,

I have been starting most shoes with OTBL4M3, be cause almost invariably if I start S40,

I start thinking that I might be better of with M3. Then, I am worrying about whether I should switch

instead of paying attention to what I am doing. I would find it easier to switch to S40, if the shoe

went to mostly 1's and 2's.

I have been seeing a lot of 4iar's and 5 iar's in the same shoe lately (i think the casino is "on to me", so

I have been experimenting with OTB4LM1,U1D2(without qualification for ST runs) with some success. It usually plays equal to or better than OTB4LM3. You don't have to worry about 4 iar's

or 5 iar's but you have a bit of a problem with 3 iar's followed by a ZZ . The upside is that you have lots

of bets left to get out of it (or vice versa). I did almost as well as F on this shoe with M1

Give it a try and let me know what you think.

[gman72]

Wendel, I haven't incorporated M1 into my NOR+ play yet, but looking back at the shoe sequence I played out OTB4L, and remembering the 2nd bet rule as I understand it for M1, my losing 2 bets never exceeded my winning 2 bets for ST runs and I had only one losing 2 bet on a ZZ run early, which I wouldn't have made a decision based on that one event and also there not being a 5iar, I would not have seen a reason to switch to M1. That's just me though. I'm not experimenting with plays outside the rules yet. After I get NOR down cold, maybe then I'll think about experimenting.

[Wendel]

Wendel, I haven't incorporated M1 into my NOR+ play yet, but looking back at the shoe sequence I played out OTB4L, and remembering the 2nd bet rule as I understand it for M1, my losing 2 bets never exceeded my winning 2 bets for ST runs and I had only one losing 2 bet on a ZZ run early, which I wouldn't have made a decision based on that one event and also there not being a 5iar, I would not have seen a reason to switch to M1. That's just me though. I'm not experimenting with plays outside the rules yet. After I get NOR down cold, maybe then I'll think about experimenting.

I start the shoe in m1 as if I had already seen the required losing 2 bets.

[Guest]

Here's the latest shoe. Ended with a little over +20 units. It started out neutral but shifted to a strong F a little bit later.

B 1122213417613

Glad I switched systems. Any other advice on what to do when you see a shoe like this? Is walking away better than sitting at a table like this?

Certainly not! This may well be the best shoe you will see all day from a NOR+ perspective. Whether you decide to go to Mode 1 during the 6iar or not your OTB4L score is +11 thus far with a highest bet of a single 4. While there was no real reason to switch to F, that was a stroke of luck that worked out greatly in your favor.

You might even say there was some skill involved in switching to F because you had previously noted that the shoes were favoring 4 or mores.

You might have considered F at Play 20 and stayed on the run because at the moment you are looking at 6 Players vs 1 Bank. On the other hand, your OR count is 0 and the SS has only recently switched to P. At the start of the shoe you were looking at 8 Banks vs 4 Ps.

Look guys: The first 4 play shoe starts is a NOR thing. It is not a NOR+ thing.

NOR gives equal weight to S40, OTB4L and F. Note that only one out of the 7 shoe start scenerios favors OTB4L.

But NOR+ favors OTB4L and makes it your base system.

NOR+ is not looking for reasons to play OTB4L. It is looking for reasons not to play OTB4L. This shoe never comes up with one. You break even on the 7 and kill the 6 with a highest bet of 4. That is good play.

Gman's arguments are sound.

[Emeraldeagle]

For some reason I seem to be getting lots of "Switch to F" shoes. Here's the latest. Ended +2 units. Didn't hit the +10 stop win and I didn't want to hit the stop loss.

B 11121121214

P 1624213

I started S40 Mode 2 and by hand 21 I switched to F Mode 3. I saw it work out but then later I lost 3 in a row. The SS gradually shifted over to P. Didn't want to lose and was unsure of what to do so I walked. By the way, I should learn the progression betting but I'm having difficulty understanding it with the manual. Anyone care to lend a hand? I would appreciate it greatly.

[Emeraldeagle]

Certainly not! This may well be the best shoe you will see all day from a NOR+ perspective. Whether you decide to go to Mode 1 during the 6iar or not your OTB4L score is +11 thus far with a highest bet of a single 4. While there was no real reason to switch to F, that was a stroke of luck that worked out greatly in your favor.

You might even say there was some skill involved in switching to F because you had previously noted that the shoes were favoring 4 or mores.

You might have considered F at Play 20 and stayed on the run because at the moment you are looking at 6 Players vs 1 Bank. On the other hand, your OR count is 0 and the SS has only recently switched to P. At the start of the shoe you were looking at 8 Banks vs 4 Ps.

Look guys: The first 4 play shoe starts is a NOR thing. It is not a NOR+ thing.

NOR gives equal weight to S40, OTB4L and F. Note that only one out of the 7 shoe start scenerios favors OTB4L.

But NOR+ favors OTB4L and makes it your base system.

NOR+ is not looking for reasons to play OTB4L. It is looking for reasons not to play OTB4L. This shoe never comes up with one. You break even on the 7 and kill the 6 with a highest bet of 4. That is good play.

Gman's arguments are sound.

Thanks. By the way, what is Mode 1? Is that spooky NOR+ language? I haven't tackled NOR+ yet. I'm not one of those people who can drive before walking.

[Guest]

For some reason I seem to be getting lots of "Switch to F" shoes. Here's the latest. Ended +2 units. Didn't hit the +10 stop win and I didn't want to hit the stop loss.

B 11121121214

P 1624213

I started S40 Mode 2 and by hand 21 I switched to F Mode 3. I saw it work out but then later I lost 3 in a row. The SS gradually shifted over to P. Didn't want to lose and was unsure of what to do so I walked. By the way, I should learn the progression betting but I'm having difficulty understanding it with the manual. Anyone care to lend a hand? I would appreciate it greatly.

Yes, your shoes ARE strange but strangly good. Where did you say you were getting these shoes? Some of us might want to go there.

OK, first when transcribing using our short cut method, be sure to have 20 plays per line until you run out of plays. This makes it easier for us to transcribe your shoe. So your shoe should read thusly:

B1112122121413

B324213

Now, starting at play 2 with S40 and betting correctly, you already hit +10 at play 14. Hitting +10 so early should encourage you to go further. But as soon as you do you run into problems (lots of 3 bets) So the name of the game becomes preserve your +10 and quit on your next +10.

If you started at play 4, the same is true. You hit +10 at play 26. But the 3 3 bets of late should signal you to Quit for sure at +10 because the shoe is trying hard to go to hell.

Proof of that is starting at play 2 and playing to the end, you finish at +10 for about the 5th time. The shoe is trying to tell you that +10 is all you are going to get!!! So QUIT at +10 if possible. +8 or +9 is fine.

BTW, NOR+ OTB4L M3 U1D2 also beats this shoe as long as you start AFTER play 2. Most of us wait for a 2iar to start OTB4L anyway and this shoe proves why. Starting at play 6, OTB4L M3 U1D2 hits +10 at play 33 and would quit there already having incurred 2 4 bets.

Betting progs couldn't be simpler:

NOR's 123 4 prog means you go up 1 on a loss and back to 1 on a win.

The 4 is only for Mode 3 so we start in Mode 2 to try to avoid the 4 altogether.

In this shoe S40 wins every M2 3bet OTR (On The Run) so you never get out of Mode 2. (Excellent)

Similar to my S40 play in A.C. for ImSpirit. I only got to the 4 ONCE in 6 shoes and won it giving me a 26% PA for the 6 shoes - perhaps the best Bac play of all time in spite of what Virtuoid says who doesn't know the first thing about Baccarat.

BTW, OTB4L DOES have to switch modes in this shoe due to the losing 3 at play 22. S40 DOESN'T.

NOR+ uses U1D2 betting which is the same except we only go down 2 on all wins instead of back to 1.

So, your correct S40M2 play for this shoe starting at play 2 would be:

P1, B1, P1, B12 P1 B1 P12 B1 P12 B312 P12 B3 P123 B12 P12 B3123 P1 B12 = +10, down from +13.

If you draw that out and study it, you'll see that 123 betting is extremely simple.

Now you need to study the 3rd bet rule to learn when to switch modes. This shoe you never lose a 3rd bet so you never switch from Mode 2.

[Guest]

Thanks. By the way, what is Mode 1? Is that spooky NOR+ language? I haven't tackled NOR+ yet. I'm not one of those people who can drive before walking.

Mode 1 is for NOR+ only. It means you go OTR and stay there (until you lose) after ONE losing bet instead of 2 (Mode 2) or 3 (mode3). It is only attempted when 4 or mores exceed 3s. Even then, we only go Mode 1 when losing 2 bets exceed winning 2 bets by 2 or more. This is quite rare.

In your other shoe, 4 or mores DID exceed 3s but losing 2s never got ahead by 2 or more. BTW, you would never start a shoe in Mode 1 like Wendel was saying. Most shoes don't qualify. Mode 1 use is quite rare but can come in handy in the right shoes. Mode 1 is merely following SAP to the letter.

[Guest]

BTW Emerald, don't be thinking you must switch to F every time you see a run. Both S40 and OTB4L handle runs quite nicely most of the time. F is indicated when you are seeing really long runs (8 or more) and/or you are seeing SS (Strong side) or you are seeing sporadic 1's or sporadic 1's and 2s.

[bac-cracker]

I am a little confused to what you did here.

Are your numbers correct based on the shoe as I wasn't able to follow it correctly.

By the way when you are in s40m2, is m2 what you normally start with, if so, don't you go OTR twice.

Since we went OTR twice on hand 19 and missed, do you go OTR 1 time next time.

For the next run of 6 I didn't understand what you did at all. Can you go play by play on hand 21-34

Thanks

[Guest]

For some reason I seem to be getting lots of "Switch to F" shoes. Here's the latest. Ended +2 units. Didn't hit the +10 stop win and I didn't want to hit the stop loss.

B 11121121214

P 1624213

Just be sure you have 20 plays per col or we will all get screwed up trying to transcribe it, including me.

I started S40 Mode 2 and by hand 21 I switched to F Mode 3. I saw it work out but then later I lost 3 in a row. The SS gradually shifted over to P. Didn't want to lose and was unsure of what to do so I walked. By the way, I should learn the progression betting but I'm having difficulty understanding it with the manual. Anyone care to lend a hand? I would appreciate it greatly.

OK, I see we had another crash and lost a few posts. I'll try to bring some of them back from our email file as we go.

It might be just as well because I see I had an error in transcription myself in my last post with 22 plays in the first col.But also I should have also shown you in this shoe what happens when you incorporate the ON OFF ON OFF the run suggestion I brought up before.

OK, the shoe correctly transcribed is:

B 1112112121412

B 424213 = 36 plays

OK, watching this shoe start with a triple 1 we would be strongly inclined to play it S40 and start in M2 which is our standard start for S40 unless prior shoes have indicated otherwise. Since we never lose a 3rd bet we stay in Mode 2 which calls for a 2nd OTR attempt starting out. Our 2nd OTR attempt fails at play 18 so we don't attempt it at play 23. But we would have won it at play 23 so we again attempt it at play 31 where it fails again. So all of our 2nd OTR attempts fail no matter where we bet them. But no worries because we always win our subsequent 2 bet and we win the shoe nicely in spite of our bad luck on 2nd OTR bets.

So OK S40 M2 U1D2 starting at play 2 and playing the runs our traditional way goes:

p1 b1 p1 b12 p1 b1 p12 b1 p12 b1 p12 b312 p1

p2 b3 p123 b12 p12 b3123 p1 b12 = +10, down from +13 with highest bets of 5 3s.

But now, lets look what happens when we deploy our ON OFF ON OFF the run suggestion:

The first col is exactly the same but the 2nd col now goes:

p2 b3 p1 b2 p1 b12 p12 b3123 p1 b12 = +12 WITH one less 3 bet. So, just as advertised our bets are lower while our score is higher and this way we beat all long runs no matter their length. See that? This eliminates the fear of runs and all those times you might be thinking of switching to F because of a long run or 2.

But now lets suppose we have been playing this table for several shoes and it is strongly favoring OTB4L so we play OTB4L in spite of the starting triple 1. Starting OTB4L it is best to wait for a 2iar to start or at least a double 1. That greatly increases the strength of our game starts with OTB4L. Which we wait for makes bo difference in this shoe so I'll start at Play 6. (a play 3 start works out to exactly the same score)

So OTB4L M3 (our normal OTB4L start) U1D2 starting at play 6 goes:

b11 p2 b3 p11 b2 p11 b2 p1231 b2

p123 b4 p21 b11 p1231 b11 p2 b1 = +11, 1 unit less than S40 but with a 4 bet and 4 3 bets. Not bad.

And as Emerald pointed out, this shoe also does well playing F as soon as it starts to show a strong side.

So this is one of those shoes that all 3 NOR systems beat. And +10 or more in less than 2 cols is excellent play!

BTW, one of our members is looking at what happens if you play all 3 NOR systems on your card and them simply select the lowest bet of the 3 for the table. Tests thus far are very exciting. It even won all but one shoe flat betting and even then the single losing shoe was only -1. Normal U1D2 won every test shoe thus far. But I'll start a new thread for this and give you the rules. We might call it Triple NOR or NOR3 for short. Your bets end up very low so high stakes players should like this. You don't win a lot but you win consistently. It might be a good way to play preshuffled cards. We'll see!

[gman72]

Don't shoot the messenger, but I still see a transcription problem. I don't want to be negative, but that's not the shoe as originally posted. It's a good play by play to follow for the shoe you transcribe, it's just different from EE's.

EE's: B1112112

Ellis: B1112122

See the difference.

It's interesting how my post from yesterday is gone, which showed all this and played it out as EE posted it originally. If I played it correctly, S40 gets killed in the second column of the shoe.

[harrican]

BTW, one of our members is looking at what happens if you play all 3 NOR systems on your card and them simply select the lowest bet of the 3 for the table. Tests thus far are very exciting. It even won all but one shoe flat betting and even then the single losing shoe was only -1. Normal U1D2 won every test shoe thus far. But I'll start a new thread for this and give you the rules. We might call it Triple NOR or NOR3 for short. Your bets end up very low so high stakes players should like this. You don't win a lot but you win consistently. It might be a good way to play preshuffled cards. We'll see!

Interesting.. but which mode to start for each system? I assume use S40 Mode 2, OTB4L Mode 3 & F Mode 3? And Yes, please start the NOR3 thread

[Guest]

Don't shoot the messenger, but I still see a transcription problem. I don't want to be negative, but that's not the shoe as originally posted. It's a good play by play to follow for the shoe you transcribe, it's just different from EE's.

EE's: B1112112

Ellis: B1112122

See the difference.

It's interesting how my post from yesterday is gone, which showed all this and played it out as EE posted it originally. If I played it correctly, S40 gets killed in the second column of the shoe.

Good grief, you're right! The SHOE should be transcribed:

B 1112112121412

B 424213 = 36 plays

Right?

But this makes little difference in the outcome - 2 units

I'll go back and correct my post accordingly. Then you can quickly see where we differ on the correct shoe.

Thanks gman

[Guest]

Interesting.. but which mode to start for each system? I assume use S40 Mode 2, OTB4L Mode 3 & F Mode 3? And Yes, please start the NOR3 thread

Right, that is the intelligent question!

Here is the way I see it:

S40 M2

OTB4L M3

F2

And that is the way the test shoes thus far were done.

Here is my reasoning: We know that M2 favors streak and M3 favors chop.

We obviously don't want them all favoring the same thing.

F already favors streak somewhat so we make it F2 to completely favor streak.

OTB4L favors neutral but M3 beats the most events.

S40 favors chop big time so we can afford M2 which tends to favor lower bets.

Lets use that as a starting point so we are all doing it the same way.

[johnnycs1]

Good grief, you're right! The SHOE should be transcribed:

B 1112112121412

B 424213 = 36 plays

Right?

But this makes little difference in the outcome - 2 units

I'll go back and correct my post accordingly. Then you can quickly see where we differ on the correct shoe.

Thanks gman

Using the 2-2-1 method , from Keiths Seminar , last Friday night.......the 6th Sept......up to the very last banker bet , for this listed shoe, I was at a +10 ! Thanks Keith !!

Really easy , mechanical play and no guessing what method to use! Or going back , after the fact ...ahhh , thats what I should have done ! ?? TO late !!

iT'S been testing nicely in both Bac & Roulette ! Hey, for $249 , it's still listed here for purchase and worth looking into,IMHO !! THANKS AGAIN KEITH !

johnny/albuquerque

[gman72]

Good grief, you're right! The SHOE should be transcribed:

B 1112112121412

B 424213 = 36 plays

Right?

But this makes little difference in the outcome - 2 units

I'll go back and correct my post accordingly. Then you can quickly see where we differ on the correct shoe.

Thanks gman

I should just let this go, but the accountant in me just has to try and understand it perfectly and get it right. I went back to your play by play post and saw that you changed the plays to reflect the correct transcription of the shoe. I compared it to my play of the shoe and I found where the difference was. In your post you say "we never lose a third bet". Well, based on the way you played it that is correct, but the way I played it we lose the third bet at play #25. Since we are still in M2 I assumed the bet should be an OTR b3, but you made the bet as P3, which would appear to me to be an M3 bet, but I thought we were still in M2 at that point in the shoe. What am I missing or doing wrong?

BTW, this NOR3 idea sounds interesting.

[Natural_9]

holy h$&%, I am so confused by this thread.

[harrican]

Right, that is the intelligent question!

Here is the way I see it:

S40 M2

OTB4L M3

F2

And that is the way the test shoes thus far were done.

Here is my reasoning: We know that M2 favors streak and M3 favors chop.

We obviously don't want them all favoring the same thing.

F already favors streak somewhat so we make it F2 to completely favor streak.

OTB4L favors neutral but M3 beats the most events.

S40 favors chop big time so we can afford M2 which tends to favor lower bets.

Lets use that as a starting point so we are all doing it the same way.

Thanks for the swift reply some more questions ..

1. OTR part - Do we do as per NOR and play OTR two times for mode 2 and OTR once for mode 3? or just OTR all the way?

2. Mode fail part - When the Mode fail, do we switch as per NOR or just stick to the same mode for the whole Shoe?

3. When the "bets" are even but falls on different sides, for example , lets says S40 says bet 1 unit on player, and F says bet 1 unit on banker and OTB4L says bet 2 units on banker. Do we Skip? or Choose Banker, since there are "2 votes" for it?

4. just remember one question.. for the progression 1u2d we play all the way no cap right? ie. the bets can go to 10 or 15 units right?

thats all I can think of now Thanks for quick reply again!

Edited September 13, 2013 by harrican
added question 4

[gman72]

holy h$&%, I am so confused by this thread.

Join the club. That's what happens when three days of posts disappear.

[gman72]

OK, the shoe correctly transcribed is:

B 1112112121412

B 424213 = 36 plays

But now lets suppose we have been playing this table for several shoes and it is strongly favoring OTB4L so we play OTB4L in spite of the starting triple 1. Starting OTB4L it is best to wait for a 2iar to start or at least a double 1. That greatly increases the strength of our game starts with OTB4L. Which we wait for makes bo difference in this shoe so I'll start at Play 6. (a play 3 start works out to exactly the same score)

So OTB4L M3 (our normal OTB4L start) U1D2 starting at play 6 goes:

b11 p2 b3 p11 b2 p11 b2 p1231 b2

p123 b4 p21 b11 p1231 b11 p2 b1 = +11, 1 unit less than S40 but with a 4 bet and 4 3 bets. Not bad.

In OTB4L, my play varies a little here from yours as well. 1st column is the same, it's the 2nd column where the difference comes in.

Your 2nd col: p123 b4 p21 b11 p1231 b11 p2 b1

My 2nd col: p123 b4 p21 b11 p12 b3 p4 b21 p2 b1

At play 30 I thought I was in M2, since I lost the 3rd bet at play 23 when we were in M3. I thought this should switch me to M2 which then affects the decision at play 30. My way still ends +9, for a win.

[Guest]

In OTB4L, my play varies a little here from yours as well. 1st column is the same, it's the 2nd column where the difference comes in.

Your 2nd col: p123 b4 p21 b11 p1231 b11 p2 b1

My 2nd col: p123 b4 p21 b11 p12 b3 p4 b21 p2 b1

At play 30 I thought I was in M2, since I lost the 3rd bet at play 23 when we were in M3. I thought this should switch me to M2 which then affects the decision at play 30. My way still ends +9, for a win.

Right, your play is fine too. (latest information) The only reason I didn't switch to M2 at play 31 is we have a winning ST 3rd bet at play 18 and a losing 3rd bet at play 23 so 3rd bets are even at play 30 and the shoe was favoring chop up to the 6iar. It is definitely not clear cut either way and turns out to make little difference.