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who here is actually a professional baccarat player

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I am. Why?

CT70

And there are quite a few others who might identify themselve but also might not. There are IRS implications to consider.

But true Pros must have a complete understanding of the mathematics of the shoe at hand.

BECAUSE it is variation from average math that tells the Pro which system is best for the shoe at hand.

We play the game in single shoes and beating the shoe at hand is our only goal.

So we must know how the shoe at hand is varying from the average. That is how we get our edge.

But Ellis, what if the shoe at hand is hitting all of the averages?

It has the average number of each event - a 0 OR count and SAP counts are all the same? Opposites and Repeats are equal?

Well OK, you are describing the shoe that Mathematicians like friend Dave (Virtuoid) but also great Mathematicians like The Wizard, assume when they argue that the game cannot be beat. They assume all shoes are perfectly random and they point out that any large group of shoes will collectively hit all of the random numbers. And they then point out that mathematically random numbers can't be beat.

Well, all true IF you live in a Mathematical world and your vision is resricted to beating a hypothetical perfectly random shoe.

All true EXCEPT the part that says such a shoe can't be beat.

But it CAN be beat! BECAUSE it is random and random is a bias in itself.

Mathematicians totally exclude Casino Shuffle Technology as if it didn't exist.

But casinos have developed shuffle technology to a Science first in BJ and then in Baccarat.

Proof of this fact is the ever increasing casino "take" - the percentage of the "drop" - chips purchased - "retention".

If all cards were random, casino retention would be a fixed percentage.

But it isn't - not even close.

Virtuoid argues that casinos have good months and bad months but overall, they hit their mathematically fixed retention rate.

The Wizard makes the same mistake and proves it by playing random generator shoes.

But in a casino, we don't play random shoes. We play the result of years of collective casino shuffle technology.

In the REAL world we are playing against "orchestrated" shoes - not random shoes.

Mathematicians collectively all make the same mistake. They start their argument with a false given - random shoes.

So their math is corrupted right from the get go by starting out with a false assumption - random cards.

Casinos recognized back in the '80s, back when casinos were 90% BJ, that some shuffles favored the players while others favored the casino. This is what began the science of shuffle technology with the objective of increasing the casino TAKE percentage.

And it worked! With dramatic results

In the '80s and '90s I closely tracked and published quarterly and yearend average casino take of all of the casinos in the US which at that time were limited to Atlantic City and Las Vegas.

The First casino in the US BTW, The Canfield casino in Saratoga Springs, NY, my home town, was closed in 1954. It is now a museum ha, where I have conducted many BJ lectures.

I tracked both BJ and Baccarat. BTW, casino take numbers must, by law, be published.

But here's the thing: Watch my lips:

The overal US casino BJ Take, you know, that same number which should have remained constant under random conditions,

went from a very constant 6% in the '80s to a very constant 15% today!

HOW?

The rules remained the same. The odds of every hand remained the same.

Yet the Take more than doubled - a mathematical impossibility - except for ONE thing -

Casino shuffle technology! The very thing Mathematicians ignore.

So I wrote NBJ which exploits what REALLY happens in a BJ game - NOT some Mathematician's concept of what SHOULD happen mathematically in an imaginary random game. Ha, a game you will likely never see.

Baccarat? Even worse:

Casino average Baccarat take went from 3% in the early '90s to anywhere from 16 to 26% today depending on where you look.

The 3% was explainable and was about right for the 5% commission on Bank wins.

But how did the avg casino take multiply to 16%?

No rules changed

The number of players has no effect on casino take.

One thing and one thing only - casino shuffle technology - the same technology first learned in BJ.

I watched this all happen first hand. I was playing full time back then both in A.C. and Vegas.

NOR is my answer to casino shuffle technology. NOR thrives on shuffle technology.

So what about those perfectly random games?

We never saw those back then. But we see them today more and more with the advent of factory preshuffled cards.

So I had to invent a new system for random shoes.

MDB+ beats anything remotely close to random. By any performance measurement - my greatest accomplishment.

So why do I mention all this on this thread?

Because the origional question was Who's a Pro.

So I figure this is a good place to define a Pro.

Sure, a Pro has discipline and all the other qualifications.

But what defines him is he knows what he is up against and takes advantage of it. He knows how to find those advantage tables and how to play them.

The Mathematicians? They could play ANY table. They think everything is random... Ha! That's what they teach - That's why they lose!

Edited by Ellis

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Guest

I consider someone a professional, only and only, if they can make a living from playing.

Even a few months of winning doesn't cut it. You need to win consistently, month after month, to be a pro.

Anyone can win in the short-term...

The real question is...who can prove it?

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topstep1
I consider someone a professional, only and only, if they can make a living from playing.

Even a few months of winning doesn't cut it. You need to win consistently, month after month, to be a pro.

Anyone can win in the short-term...

The real question is...who can prove it?

Hamster I'm pretty sure nobody is going to step up and prove to YOU that they make money consistently playing baccarat . Anytime someone like you wants to see proof its obviously you have doubt about your game and you want to see proof of someone else game. Hamster will you please post some shoes so we can evaluate your play and I would strongly suggest that you run a couple of hundred shoes at home and it will all click trust me . PRACTICE, PRACTICE PRACTICE .......That is what is going to get you to that next level , sure I ask to see shoes too but perfect what you already have I bet you its a gold mine.

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Guest

I have tons of real shoes that I played. It's so easy to look at a shoe afterwords and tell people how it should of been played. Just saying...

I really don't play NOR, but I am familiar with it.

Here is one shoe I played. I ended up +8 units. In this shoe, I was being creative ...You can see some woman was watching me win and wrote "Next Time Give You Back" on the card. She was asking for me to lend her money... very annoying. I think Ellis and Keith discuss how the casino environment can distract you from playing your best. LOL

I actually don't play this way now. If I posted a shoe of how I play, no one on this board could figure it out. Not even Ellis...

I learned from a Pro who is a IT and Math wiz... I still have long way to go... but I understand most of it.[ATTACH]3168

post-6905-14500262566698_thumb.jpg

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ECD
I consider someone a professional, only and only, if they can make a living from playing.

Even a few months of winning doesn't cut it. You need to win consistently, month after month, to be a pro.

Anyone can win in the short-term...

The real question is...who can prove it?

My sole source of income is from playing Baccarat...I earn more in a week than I used to earn in a year.

I use my own variation of Ellis's teachings (to suit my ultra conservative nature), but everything I do...I learned from this site. I never make anything higher than a 2 unit bet

I could prove it I suppose...but I'm not the slightest bit interested in proving anything to you.

Quite frankly...I find you an annoying little pissant ...way too much of a tight arse to pay the piddling little amount charged to learn from the best Baccarat Teacher in the history of the game.

Personally...I wish that you would just disappear back to the Cyberworld from whence you came and leave the teaching to Ellis and his long time students because you add absolutely nothing to the discussion.

Hmm...I'm not usually this verbally aggressive.

Memo to self ..."Check to make certain that I've taken my medication before reading any more of Hamster's posts"

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Plus One

I guess I should be a little more specific. I can't figure out why on some days I do super well and other days I come home at breakeven. Yes I want to reach a level where I can go to the casino at any time of the day and come out on top. My goals for being a professional goes something like this.

hands won vs hands played

within 3 bets reach your base unit bet stop after losing 1st base bet

right now trying to figure out card shuffle machines so I can get what I want.

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ECD
I guess I should be a little more specific. I can't figure out why on some days I do super well and other days I come home at breakeven. Yes I want to reach a level where I can go to the casino at any time of the day and come out on top. My goals for being a professional goes something like this.

hands won vs hands played

within 3 bets reach your base unit bet stop after losing 1st base bet

right now trying to figure out card shuffle machines so I can get what I want.

Brendon...I'm not the teacher here...but seriously mate...you are doing brilliantly well.

Any day that you don't lose is still a good day....Get this through your head my friend..."If you regard a break-even day as a bad day...then it's not your play that needs improving...it's your mindset"

Naturally your play will improve as you progress...but you have one hell of a good base to progress from.

Norm used to have a saying "He would rather miss out on 10 winning bets than make a losing bet that he shouldn't have made"

You are already a winner...You just don't realise it yet

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Guest
I guess I should be a little more specific. I can't figure out why on some days I do super well and other days I come home at breakeven. Yes I want to reach a level where I can go to the casino at any time of the day and come out on top. My goals for being a professional goes something like this.

hands won vs hands played

within 3 bets reach your base unit bet stop after losing 1st base bet

right now trying to figure out card shuffle machines so I can get what I want.

Well that would be nice but you are missing an important ingredient for top level professional play:

In a word, scheduling your play to coincide with a casino's vulnerabilities.

Casinos are corporations. They have weekly and monthly and quarterly goals to meet and, just like other corporations, there is HUGE pressure on the staff to meet these goals. They schedule their best games, and their best dealers accordingly. But they can't always put their best foot forward.

Wannabe pros need to put the date and time on every score card.

It won't be long before you see that you do best on certain days and at certain times of the day. You'll also see that you do worst on the last day of the month.

For instance, when I played Atlantic City full time, I quickly realized from my records that I did worst on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays and Mondays. I did best on Tuesdays through Thursdays.

As a general rule, I did best on my early morning session (7AM), second best on my midday session and worst on my night session.

Nevertheless some casinos were most vulnerable at night - so that is where you would find me for the night session.

I found that I actually made more money when I cut my play schedule in half and stuck to the most vulnerable casinos at their most vulnerable times.

Casinos are not static. They like to present a moving target. The more you know about them the better you can do.

It is not about beating their toughest games. It is about avoiding their toughest games altogether while knowing when and where and how to find their easiest games.

Sure, it's a little more work and a little more study but playing to the best schedule also gives you more free time to examine your records.

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Guest

This reminds me of a game I had one morning at the Claridge, my favorite A.C Casino. I was staying there at the Claridge and after a good nights sleep I walked into the high stakes pit at 7 am. There were very few players at that hour and I selected an 8 deck, $100 BJ game, brand new cards. After watching the new cards card prep and after a few hands, I settled in to a 146 Up as you lose progression. But I was losing the 1 bet and winning the 4 bet so consistently that I soon dropped the 6 bet altogether and just played 1-4 up as you lose. I play lightening fast so it was no time before I had many piles of ten on the table.

Another player walked in, very dissheveled, obviously still playing from the night before and obviously coming from a craps game. He sees the chips I had amassed and immediately takes first base where he proceeds to play 1,2,3 up as you win as if he was playing craps..

While I, consistently lost the 1 and won the 4, he just as consistently won the 1 and lost the 2. He had to rebuy in every few hands. I had amassed about 15 piles of 10 from my initial buy in of 10 chips.

So we are both winning half the hands but he's losing his shirt while I'm up $15,000.

BTW, NEVER bet up as you win in BJ because you very seldom win hands in a row.

Finally he speaks for the first time and says: "This is the worst game I've ever played in!"

Peering at him over 15 piles of 10, I replied: "Maybe for you!"

He left.

It's all a question of knowing what to play and when to play it.

Edited by Ellis

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JustinM

The only way to be a Professional Player at Baccarat is to be able to play at an advatage at Baccarat. The only way to do that is Edge Sorting. So the only professional Baccarat player is on that does Edge Sorting.

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ECD
The only way to be a Professional Player at Baccarat is to be able to play at an advatage at Baccarat. The only way to do that is Edge Sorting. So the only professional Baccarat player is on that does Edge Sorting.

Shall you tell him Ellis or shall I?

Nah...I best leave it to you...I haven't taken my medication today and might say something I shouldn't.

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Guest
My sole source of income is from playing Baccarat...I earn more in a week than I used to earn in a year.

I use my own variation of Ellis's teachings (to suit my ultra conservative nature), but everything I do...I learned from this site. I never make anything higher than a 2 unit bet

I could prove it I suppose...but I'm not the slightest bit interested in proving anything to you.

Quite frankly...I find you an annoying little pissant ...way too much of a tight arse to pay the piddling little amount charged to learn from the best Baccarat Teacher in the history of the game.

Personally...I wish that you would just disappear back to the Cyberworld from whence you came and leave the teaching to Ellis and his long time students because you add absolutely nothing to the discussion.

Hmm...I'm not usually this verbally aggressive.

Memo to self ..."Check to make certain that I've taken my medication before reading any more of Hamster's posts"

OZscouser1, I am here as a fellow Baccarat player. Nothing more...

Sorry to upset you...

I wish everyone success at the tables.

I am impressed with anyone that can make a living gambling. Whether Baccart, BJ, Poker, Sports Betting.

It is a grind no doubt.

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MVSeahog
The only way to be a Professional Player at Baccarat is to be able to play at an advatage at Baccarat. The only way to do that is Edge Sorting. So the only professional Baccarat player is on that does Edge Sorting.

Wow. Very good.

Day 1. First post and you've already got all the answers.

Good luck with your game.

MVS

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ECD
Wow. Very good.

Day 1. First post and you've already got all the answers.

Good luck with your game.

MVS

Methinks that you are being way too subtle. LOL

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Guest
Who here is a professional bac player?

Not me...

Can't imagine trying to make a living playing Bac.

I would rather play the stock market...

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Gil
Not me...

Can't imagine trying to make a living playing Bac.

I would rather play the stock market...

I agreed Hamster. Are you selling Put Weekly Options?

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Guest
I agreed Hamster. Are you selling Put Weekly Options?

Gil, I am not an Options guy. I swing trade mostly...It's not that hard once you learn a basket of stocks.

The only options I hold are a couple of covered call ETFs.

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Guest
Are you "playing" the stock market or are you "invested" in the stock market?

MVS

Both MVSeahog...

I can beat the Market swing trading but I also have many core positions (investing ).

Most of my long-term positions are ETFs.

It's easy to average down on a ETF. With individual stocks, you gotta know them inside and out.

If the market crashes say 30%...most ppl panic. Not me...I love it!!! Back up the TRUCK!!!

I have cash positions that are always waiting to be deployed.

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