MDB+SAP Questions

[ECD]

I have to give out a big "Kudos" to Kevin for this idea with a bit of a tweak. Can anyone test this out and see if they are getting the extremely positive results that I am getting. Played Parx yesterday. Two shoes.

B134242411431132272381 +11

P222113511122511711312112272 +13

I waited for TB4L and then bet TB4L. If an OBT4L came out, I waited for another TB4L to show then bet TB4L. U1D2. I don't know how everyone else feels, but to me betting every hand is just as suicidal as an aggressive progression.

I also did this with MDB+ practice shoes with similar results.

Here' s a bit of Bac2TheFuture for those of you just wanting to win a few units per shoe, and STOP when you do...or Don't

I did not " invent" this, just putting it into context of today's Baccarat environment

Pre-shuffled, or not.

Look, 50% of all events should be 1-IAR'S, and 25% 2-IAR'S, over the course of your " session experience" , whether 1 shoe played at a single casino, or 20 shoes played out over 3 days at different casinos...

N.O. - it will not be exact, whether per-shoe, or for 20

But, unless the casino is plundering and pillaging relentlessly, or all of Vegas is " in cahoots" with one-another, it pretty much will be...

So here is an old-school " system" , resurrected from the bone-pile, with a modern-day twist ( takes into account NOR bias + RegressionTo The Mean attributes of MDB)

Just glance at the tote board and look at/keep track of three things:

OTBL

Opposite

Repeat

Rules:

Anytime last hand resulted in an OTBL " win", no matter what bet,OTBL again next hand

Anytime last hand DID NOT result in an OTBL win , bet THE SAME AS whether the last hand was an Opposite, or a Repeat of the previous hand.

Example:

Was last hand OTBL? Opposite? Repeat? ( of the previous hand)

If answer was :

OTBL - YES

O - YES

R-NO

You must bet The next hand will be an OTBL result.

If last hand was

OTBL - YES

O- NO

R - YES

You must bet the next hand will be an OTBL result.

Note: If next hand would be a repeat of the result from the prior hand ( OTBL + O, or OTBL + R), this indicates and even stronger bet on OTBL result for the next hand....but in any case, bet OTBL regardless if the last hand was an OTBL result...

Now, if last hand DID NOT result in an OTBL result compared to the previous hand, but instead was just an O or R result from the previous play, just bet that the next hand will repeat as an O or R result again.

Best use is for small overall wins per shoe ( 1,2,3+ units)...then move on to another shoe, leave casino, etc.

EZ to apply w/progressions, or not...

This is great " hit and run" baccarat, or moving table to table, as opposed to playing whole shoes or waiting for MDB triggers

Does well if shoe is producing lots of 1's , or 2/3's in a given section of the shoe

Or.....lots of 4+ steaks in a shoe..., with normal amount of 1s, 2's 3's as a % of normal distribution...

AND REMEMBER, best for " hit it and forget it" advantage play...( thanks, TRBFLA)

Good luck, and give it a quick try for just a few hands, selected randomly, from your previously played shoes...

Edited June 23, 2015 by ECD
Adding

[epstein]

I have to give out a big "Kudos" to Kevin for this idea with a bit of a tweak. Can anyone test this out and see if they are getting the extremely positive results that I am getting. Played Parx yesterday. Two shoes.

B134242411431132272381 +11

P222113511122511711312112272 +13

I waited for TB4L and then bet TB4L. If an OBT4L came out, I waited for another TB4L to show then bet TB4L. U1D2. I don't know how everyone else feels, but to me betting every hand is just as suicidal as an aggressive progression.

I also did this with MDB+ practice shoes with similar results.

can you show how you play this to get +11 and +13.

do you play all the shoes?

[ECD]

I tried uploading something here and had problems. I am not computer gifted lol. If you put it to a score card, I waited for a TB4L to show up and continued to bet TB4L until I lost. I then waited for another TB4L and then bet TB4L until I lost. In the 4 live shoes the MDB+ shoes and Wizard of Odds shoes that I played I lost once. All shoes with the exception of the losing shoe had one thing in common, they had at least one extended F or choppy streak. Betting TB4L only guarantees that you will jump on the extended streak and go for a hopefully long ride. Trying to see if anyone else can test it out. If you want, PM me your email address and I will upload my score sheets to you.

can you show how you play this to get +11 and +13.

do you play all the shoes?

[Guest]

I tried uploading something here and had problems. I am not computer gifted lol. If you put it to a score card, I waited for a TB4L to show up and continued to bet TB4L until I lost. I then waited for another TB4L and then bet TB4L until I lost. In the 4 live shoes the MDB+ shoes and Wizard of Odds shoes that I played I lost once. All shoes with the exception of the losing shoe had one thing in common, they had at least one extended F or choppy streak. Betting TB4L only guarantees that you will jump on the extended streak and go for a hopefully long ride. Trying to see if anyone else can test it out. If you want, PM me your email address and I will upload my score sheets to you.

Well sure McVince, that's why TB4L is NOR's streak system. It wins on both ST and ZZ runs.

So if you play only shoes with long runs you'll do good.

But about half of all shoes do not have runs longer than 5.

After the first 2 plays every play in a shoe is either TB4L or OTB4L.

Half of all shoes are mostly TB4L, the other half is OTB4L.

You would be much better off to FIRST determine which the shoe at hand is

and then play THAT system until you lose.

Just watch 2s!

If 2s are low the shoe is TB4L

If 2s are high the shoe is OTB4L

But what about S40 shoes? - High 1's?

Half of all shoes are high 1's!

And what about F shoes?

What you are doing is taking ONE leg of NOR and proving that it works.

But you are going to win a whole lot more shoes by a whole lot more chips

if you simply play NOR.

That is, if you know how to play NOR in its entirety.

[ECD]

Ellis,

I understand your logic. Everyone has their betting "Comfort Zones". My "Comfort Zone" is NOT betting every hand. I think MDB+ has proven with an extreme degree of certainty that if you strike when the moment is right, you will put yourself in the best possible position to win. I have been using the MDB+ logic and relayed it to this style of play. If you bet TB4L RIGHT AFTER AND ONLY AFTER a TB4L, you should be able to ride out the OTB4L storm. If it wins it wins. If it loses you ride out the other OTB4L storm until the next TB4L shows up. I have been experimenting betting EITHER TB4L AND OTB4L only with similar results. The reason I believe that the TB4L has a slight advantage is because in my two years experience playing Baccarat, I can only remember a handful of shoes that DID NOT contain an extended streak of ones or 3+. I also don't think this is a way of winning 20-30+ units like NOR. I think this could be a +5 theory just like MDB+. And used in conjunction with MDB+, it could bump up winnings. Again, something that I have been playing with live with success as well as past BTC shoes. Believe me, I am up for whatever critiques that can be thrown.

Well sure McVince, that's why TB4L is NOR's streak system. It wins on both ST and ZZ runs.

So if you play only shoes with long runs you'll do good.

But about half of all shoes do not have runs longer than 5.

After the first 2 plays every play in a shoe is either TB4L or OTB4L.

Half of all shoes are mostly TB4L, the other half is OTB4L.

You would be much better off to FIRST determine which the shoe at hand is

and then play THAT system until you lose.

Just watch 2s!

If 2s are low the shoe is TB4L

If 2s are high the shoe is OTB4L

But what about S40 shoes? - High 1's?

Half of all shoes are high 1's!

And what about F shoes?

What you are doing is taking ONE leg of NOR and proving that it works.

But you are going to win a whole lot more shoes by a whole lot more chips

if you simply play NOR.

That is, if you know how to play NOR in its entirety.

[Guest]

B134242411431132272381 +11

Come on guys, give me a break. This shoe starts with 5 Repeats vs 2 Opposites.

It is very obviously a simple Repeats only shoe and should be bet U1D2M2.

STRIKE while the iron is hot! You can't lose for crying out loud!

[ECD]

C'mon Ellis. We have very intelligent people on this forum that realize that tt's very easy to dictate your play when you look down a few bets and know what is going to happen. I didn't have that advantage. When I played it I didn't know the outcome.

B134242411431132272381 +11

Come on guys, give me a break. This shoe starts with 5 Repeats vs 2 Opposites.

It is very obviously a simple Repeats only shoe and should be bet U1D2M2.

STRIKE while the iron is hot! You can't lose for crying out loud!

[ATTACH]3424[/ATTACH]

[Guest]

C'mon Ellis. We have very intelligent people on this forum that realize that tt's very easy to dictate your play when you look down a few bets and know what is going to happen. I didn't have that advantage. When I played it I didn't know the outcome.

I knew the same thing you knew. It started with 5 Repeats and 2 Opposites.

Just like your next shoe starts with 3 freaking 2s spelling OTB4L U1D2M2

That is all any of us have to go on - the first several plays and the last several shoes.

So OK, I started at play 2. I always start at play 2 and judge from the last several shoes.

And I always bet U1D2 at a biased table.

I'm usually right but when I'm wrong it's easy to adjust.

How can you not play OTB4L in a shoe beginning with 3 2's?

That's NOR for crying out loud.

P222113511122511711312112272 +13

[Guest]

BTW, what are you doing up so early??? I thought I was the only one crazy enough to play Baccarat in the middle of the night.

[ECD]

LOL. I am in work for 6 Eastern time. Get up at 4. Just like you, I have Baccarat on the brain most of the day and night. I understand what you are saying about NOR. I really do. I have been beaten too many times by playing every single hand. That is what scares me and probably most of the people on this forum. I am looking for something to complement MDB+. And if I leave the casino only up +5 to 10 so be it. Like you said when you first introduced MDB+, if you want to settle for +5 and win big, you have to get used to betting larger size units. In my opinion, that statement is the most accurate statement that you ever made. And it is how I dictate my play. All I am saying is that if you wait out whatever storm that you are NOT playing, and you are more calculating in your bet, you will come out a winner a hell of a lot more than a loser. Ellis, I can be totally wrong. But in the 50 plus shoes that I played, I came out a loser twice. There have been shoes that I walked away +2, +3 but a + is a + and more importantly it is not a -.

BTW, what are you doing up so early??? I thought I was the only one crazy enough to play Baccarat in the middle of the night.

[ECD]

I have also been using SAP but again, I am not looking to bet every hand. Only that hands that I feel will work to my advantage.

BTW, what are you doing up so early??? I thought I was the only one crazy enough to play Baccarat in the middle of the night.

[Guest]

McVince, I seem to remember that you are mostly playing A.C. is that right?

[ECD]

I play AC yes. Borgata which I have had success with MDB+. I usually play at PARX PA. It is about 30 minutes away. Not playing as much as the winter time. Try to play once a week maybe once every other week. Golf season lol.

McVince, I seem to remember that you are mostly playing A.C. is that right?

[trillion]

McVINCE, could you please post 1 or 2 shoes showing your bets when playing TBL and waiting out the shoe until you place another bet on TBL?????

I am currently playing similar to you by tracking the SAP count and playing what ever system the SAP dictates, only playing about 20-30 bets per shoe.

Would like to see a shoe or 2 to see if this way of playing will possibly eliminate losing shoes and build confidence playing baccarat, I myself do not like to bet every hand because if I happen to be up 6 units and the next 3 betting opportunity, I hate to lose the 1,2,3 progression and end up back to 0 units.

I play in St. Louis area and they have regular card, so I cannot play MDB+ for large units.

I understand your logic. Everyone has their betting "Comfort Zones". My "Comfort Zone" is NOT betting every hand. I think MDB+ has proven with an extreme degree of certainty that if you strike when the moment is right, you will put yourself in the best possible position to win. I have been using the MDB+ logic and relayed it to this style of play. If you bet TB4L RIGHT AFTER AND ONLY AFTER a TB4L, you should be able to ride out the OTB4L storm. If it wins it wins. If it loses you ride out the other OTB4L storm until the next TB4L shows up. I have been experimenting betting EITHER TB4L AND OTB4L only with similar results. The reason I believe that the TB4L has a slight advantage is because in my two years experience playing Baccarat, I can only remember a handful of shoes that DID NOT contain an extended streak of ones or 3+. I also don't think this is a way of winning 20-30+ units like NOR. I think this could be a +5 theory just like MDB+. And used in conjunction with MDB+, it could bump up winnings. Again, something that I have been playing with live with success as well as past BTC shoes. Believe me, I am up for whatever critiques that can be thrown.

[ECD]

Believe me, I am up for whatever critiques that can be thrown.

Well, see how you asked................

First, what do I like about this approach?

It is simple

It bets that every 3 (ZZ and straight) goes to 4 and then stays OTR until a loss. As you said, you will win on any long streak.

And most importantly, it is working for you. Honestly, the only thing that matters is that you win in the casino you are playing in. Period.

Now having said that, I think there are serious flaws in this simple approach. Even though it stops betting after 1 loss, this approach can lose a SERIOUS amount of units with some VERY COMMON event patterns we (or least I) see all the time.

How often do we see something like 1212132 ? A great choppy pattern that appears all the time. This approach loses 15 UNITS to this!!!! I'm sorry, but I never want to play a system again which can lose so much in just 5 bets over 12 hands. Add a 1 and any 2+ to that, and now you are at a loss of 21 UNITS. Oh please, make it stop. LOL.

Look, it loses to a single 1 (3Z); it loses to a 2iar and it loses to a 3iar. I would defer to Ellis' expert math calculations, but I'm sure those together represent the vast majority of shoe events.

But Vin is wining with it -- so keep it up. No reason to change something that is working. Just want to ALWAYS be aware of what your system loses to and be willing to accept it. Maybe these choppy patterns can be avoided by playing hit n run, or leaving as soon as you pocket a couple units. But its only a matter of time until you hit the wrong pattern first and your U1 progression is killing you.

[brad01]

Thanks to Kevin for sharing his approach as it has created much discussion.

If I'm not wrong the approach Kevin posted was always backing an OTBL bet after an OTBL result?

And then if not an OTBL event then back whatever the previous result was - either opposite or repeat with the same?

So Kevins approach will be always looking for 2's but if theres a ZZ run hes on it, and if theres a straight hes on it

So it loses to 2121 and 3131 patterns or a combination of both 213121

But he did say its used as primarily a hit and run approach in which case its looking for 1's and 2's to be most common across a spread of tables?

This is slightly different to the way McVince is playing where hes riding the TBL sections amongst the OTBL sections but his method hes never looking for 2's - either ZZ's or straight streaks.

So Kevins approach will win TT's but McVinces will try to avoid playing them and wait for a streak or ZZ pattern again?

Both lose to 2121 patterns?

Yeah I agree - why questions something if its working for you - just keep playing it while it wins!

[ECD]

Again,

W2F, I value your opinion on this forum. How can you disagree with a person that has had the success you have had. I have been playing this for a short time with an incredible amount of practice shoes with great success. I am also experimenting with betting the same pattern but waiting for OTB4L. With your thinking, this way of betting (OTB4L) would kill those shoes. Ellis is right. Maybe it isn't good to stick with one way of betting (TB4L). But let's be candid here. I guarantee that EVERYONE on this forum changed modes, strategies, methods etc and got their clocks cleaned. What I am saying is there has to be a way to focus on ONE METHOD of betting and only bet that method when it is vulnerable. Maybe I am the only one that thinks that way. But if there is a way and it could be used to complement MDB+ how much of a killer 1/2 punch it would be.

Well, see how you asked................

First, what do I like about this approach?

It is simple

It bets that every 3 (ZZ and straight) goes to 4 and then stays OTR until a loss. As you said, you will win on any long streak.

And most importantly, it is working for you. Honestly, the only thing that matters is that you win in the casino you are playing in. Period.

Now having said that, I think there are serious flaws in this simple approach. Even though it stops betting after 1 loss, this approach can lose a SERIOUS amount of units with some VERY COMMON event patterns we (or least I) see all the time.

How often do we see something like 1212132 ? A great choppy pattern that appears all the time. This approach loses 15 UNITS to this!!!! I'm sorry, but I never want to play a system again which can lose so much in just 5 bets over 12 hands. Add a 1 and any 2+ to that, and now you are at a loss of 21 UNITS. Oh please, make it stop. LOL.

Look, it loses to a single 1 (3Z); it loses to a 2iar and it loses to a 3iar. I would defer to Ellis' expert math calculations, but I'm sure those together represent the vast majority of shoe events.

But Vin is wining with it -- so keep it up. No reason to change something that is working. Just want to ALWAYS be aware of what your system loses to and be willing to accept it. Maybe these choppy patterns can be avoided by playing hit n run, or leaving as soon as you pocket a couple units. But its only a matter of time until you hit the wrong pattern first and your U1 progression is killing you.

[ECD]

W2F,

I put your example on paper. According to your pattern I only lost once (-1). The reason I am only -1 is because there is only one TB4L in the pattern (3iar). I would only bet AFTER a confirmed TB4L. Those other 1's and 2's are OTB4L and I wouldn't bet that. By no means am I trying to change your mind. I just wanted to correct what I was trying to say. I would only bet one pattern (TB4L OR OTB4L) and bet it AFTER a confirmed pattern that I am looking for.

Well, see how you asked................

First, what do I like about this approach?

It is simple

It bets that every 3 (ZZ and straight) goes to 4 and then stays OTR until a loss. As you said, you will win on any long streak.

And most importantly, it is working for you. Honestly, the only thing that matters is that you win in the casino you are playing in. Period.

Now having said that, I think there are serious flaws in this simple approach. Even though it stops betting after 1 loss, this approach can lose a SERIOUS amount of units with some VERY COMMON event patterns we (or least I) see all the time.

How often do we see something like 1212132 ? A great choppy pattern that appears all the time. This approach loses 15 UNITS to this!!!! I'm sorry, but I never want to play a system again which can lose so much in just 5 bets over 12 hands. Add a 1 and any 2+ to that, and now you are at a loss of 21 UNITS. Oh please, make it stop. LOL.

Look, it loses to a single 1 (3Z); it loses to a 2iar and it loses to a 3iar. I would defer to Ellis' expert math calculations, but I'm sure those together represent the vast majority of shoe events.

But Vin is wining with it -- so keep it up. No reason to change something that is working. Just want to ALWAYS be aware of what your system loses to and be willing to accept it. Maybe these choppy patterns can be avoided by playing hit n run, or leaving as soon as you pocket a couple units. But its only a matter of time until you hit the wrong pattern first and your U1 progression is killing you.

[Rich333]

So you are only betting a confirmed 3 ZZ run as long as its beginning is not part of any 2+ (iar)? Is that right?

So a confirmed 3 ZZ for you may actually be a 4 ZZ. I think I get it now.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Rich333

[ECD]

W2F,

I put your example on paper. According to your pattern I only lost once (-1). The reason I am only -1 is because there is only one TB4L in the pattern (3iar). I would only bet AFTER a confirmed TB4L. Those other 1's and 2's are OTB4L and I wouldn't bet that. By no means am I trying to change your mind. I just wanted to correct what I was trying to say. I would only bet one pattern (TB4L OR OTB4L) and bet it AFTER a confirmed pattern that I am looking for.

Vin,

I don't get that at all. Perhaps I am totally missing how you described it. I understand that after a TBL hand you play the next hand to be TBL, and keep betting TBL until a loss. Here is how that plays out with my example (1212132). Please let me know what I misunderstood:

B Bet 1 unit on P and lost -- my example appears within a shoe and the bet on P is the first loss on the previous streak

P previous hand was OTB, so no bet

P previous hand was TBL, so bet 2 on B and lost. -3 total.

B previous hand was OTB, so no bet

P previous hand was OTB, so no bet

P previous hand was TBL, so lose 3 units bet on B. -6 total

B previous was OTB, no bet

P previous was OTB, no bet

P previous was TBL, lose 4 units bet on B. -10 total

P previous was OTB, no bet

B previous was TBL, lose 5 units bet on P. -15 total

B previous was OTB, no bet

[Guest]

Again,

W2F, I value your opinion on this forum. How can you disagree with a person that has had the success you have had. I have been playing this for a short time with an incredible amount of practice shoes with great success. I am also experimenting with betting the same pattern but waiting for OTB4L. With your thinking, this way of betting (OTB4L) would kill those shoes. Ellis is right. Maybe it isn't good to stick with one way of betting (TB4L). But let's be candid here. I guarantee that EVERYONE on this forum changed modes, strategies, methods etc and got their clocks cleaned. What I am saying is there has to be a way to focus on ONE METHOD of betting and only bet that method when it is vulnerable. Maybe I am the only one that thinks that way. But if there is a way and it could be used to complement MDB+ how much of a killer 1/2 punch it would be.

Hmm, well McVince, it seems to defy logic. But then, Baccarat itself often defys logic. Hey, if its working for you where you play - go for it!

We aren't going to argue with winning score cards.

It is not about how much you bet. It's about how often you bet on the right side.

Myself, when I see 2s, I don't question why. I immediately think OTB4L.

And when I don't see 2s, I immediately think TB4L.

BECAUSE 2s is the ONLY thing TB4L loses to but it loses drastically to them.

Low 2s - TB4L wins.

Hi 2s - OTB4L wins.

You can play the whole game quite well JUST watching 2s.

But I don't put ALL my eggs in that particular basket.

But that's just me.

Hey, do whatever works for you where you play! Don't mind us.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Ellis

[Guest]

Getting back to the subject at hand: MDB+SAP:

way2fast, Macau, Sinapore and most Asia players, consider this:

Particularly when you delay your progression starts, you get even fewer bets with MDB+.

So it is logical to look for other high percentage bets.

Think of MDB+ as TRYING to bet toward random. and it usually does, but not always.

Sometimes MDB+, through simple bad luck, is betting ON an event that is already high

relative to the entire shoe thus far.

And sometimes MDB+ misses rather golden bet opportunities again through simple bad luck.

But, particularly in factory cards touch games,

SAP ALWAYS has an MC (highest count) and an LC (lowest count)

Sometimes 2 or even 3 events are tied for high and the same with the LC

MDB+ ATTEMPTS to bet toward random.

RSAP does in FACT bet toward random if you bet that the MC will go down and the LC will go up.

Those are the most logical bets in a factory touch game shoe.

BECAUSE those events are furthest from random.

Sometimes MDB+ catches them but RSAP ALWAYS catches them.

So, it seems to me that THOSE are the most logical bets to supplement MDB+

that the MC will go down relatively and the LC will go up.

That tactic will ALWAYS generate bets and the bets it generates are the most logical in the shoe at hand.

There is just no way around that fact.

I'm thinking this tactic will generate hit rates comparable to MDB+, maybe even a little better. IN A RANDOM GAME.

If you aren't already, take a look and see if I'm not right.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Ellis

[ECD]

Sorry John,

When I did this, it was late. According to your chart my first bet would have been at hand 6 then 9 then 11 yes with losses.

Vin,

I don't get that at all. Perhaps I am totally missing how you described it. I understand that after a TBL hand you play the next hand to be TBL, and keep betting TBL until a loss. Here is how that plays out with my example (1212132). Please let me know what I misunderstood:

B Bet 1 unit on P and lost -- my example appears within a shoe and the bet on P is the first loss on the previous streak

P previous hand was OTB, so no bet

P previous hand was TBL, so bet 2 on B and lost. -3 total.

B previous hand was OTB, so no bet

P previous hand was OTB, so no bet

P previous hand was TBL, so lose 3 units bet on B. -6 total

B previous was OTB, no bet

P previous was OTB, no bet

P previous was TBL, lose 4 units bet on B. -10 total

P previous was OTB, no bet

B previous was TBL, lose 5 units bet on P. -15 total

B previous was OTB, no bet

[ECD]

Well, this thread seems to have moved away from the topic of MDB+ and SAP, but, one more thought on what Kevin and McVince have presented for anyone who may be trying to figure out if one or both methods make sense for them.

Recognize that although they sound like different approaches, they are actually very similar, with one very significant difference. McVince's strategy -- playing every 3 (ZZ and straight) goes to 4 and then staying OTR until it loses is EXACTLY the same as how Kevin described his play of opposites/repeats after a TBL decision. Both of them are going OTR after a 3ZZ and after a 3 straight.

The difference is that Kevin is ALSO looking to take advantage of OTBL situations.

Both are having success, and it seems both could be successful in hit n run situations, as Kevin has described. They have weaknesses that can cause big drawdowns, but all mechanical systems do. Kevin's approach is stronger, IMO, as it losses to fewer situations.

OK, I think I'm done on the topic -- 45 minutes to tee time, so time to clear my head!

[brad01]

Back on topic I'm still not entirely sure how to use SAP to improve MDB+ bets but then I haven't sat down and nutted it out.

In summary sometimes SAP will tell us not to place an MDB+ bet as it conflicts with SAP count.

So it tells us when to delay progressions or not take bets which reduces our MDB+ bets that we take but should increase win %

So we have 3 situations:

SAP count tells us to place a bet but its not an MDB+ trigger

MDB+ trigger tells us to place a bet but SAP tells us to delay

Both SAP count and MDB+ trigger tells us to place a bet - should be strongest bets ?