avion Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Interesting point wolfat, which creates a question for me. Without the "confirmation" is that considered "betting in the blind" ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legacy Players Wendel Posted January 27, 2016 Legacy Players Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 is a three 111's in a row (111) 3 events or 1 event ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avion Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 my understanding of that Wendel, it would be, if that 3rd 1 is truly a 1, and confirmed by the next hand as a 1. If that 3rd one, isn't confirmed, it can turn in a 2,3, 4, etc, until it is also confirmed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legacy Players Wendel Posted January 27, 2016 Legacy Players Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 (edited) 22 minutes ago, avion said: my understanding of that Wendel, it would be, if that 3rd 1 is truly a 1, and confirmed by the next hand as a 1. If that 3rd one, isn't confirmed, it can turn in a 2,3, 4, etc, until it is also confirmed. I understand what you are saying and agree, but I could have worded my question better so I will try again to clarify what we are saying a 313 is three events a 3113 is three events it doesn't really matter what the bookends are long as they are confirmed. and they can be anything but ones a 311 is confirmed 3 and the 11 is part of an unconfirmed event Edited January 27, 2016 by Wendel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trillion Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 1 hour ago, Wendel said: I understand what you are saying and agree, but I could have worded my question better so I will try again to clarify what we are saying a 313 is three events a 3113 is three events it doesn't really matter what the bookends are long as they are confirmed. and they can be anything but ones a 311 is confirmed 3 and the 11 is part of an unconfirmed event Wendel, I would look @ a 3113 as 4 events since the two ones are switching from side to side or switching from player to banker. Brad please let everyone know about how to interpret these events and the number of events. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avion Posted January 27, 2016 Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 yes Wendel, no problem, and it is not my intent to be critical, as I was sincerely and respectfully wanting to understand. Thank you for the clarity. Good job my friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legacy Players Wendel Posted January 27, 2016 Legacy Players Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 57 minutes ago, trillion said: Wendel, I would look @ a 3113 as 4 events since the two ones are switching from side to side or switching from player to banker. Brad please let everyone know about how to interpret these events and the number of events. Thanks trillion, I only mentioned it because I think in a MDB+ context , the 1 in 313 is part of a 3zz event the 11 in 3113 is part of a 4zz event we can certainly look at the 1's as events in Brad's context. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted January 27, 2016 Users Report Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hi guys well the title 'last 3 events method' is probably confusing now as its not exactly that or always that anymore Initially when I started this I intended to make short term triggers based on last 3 events to capitalise on short term biases due to biases changing many times throughout a shoe An event is exactly that - 1's, 2's. 3's, 4's or any number I don't define it any differently. The thing about it is you have opposite bias where 3 events is not much as the events are only 1's - 211 or 111 - not even enough for a trigger (4 plays) and then you have repeat bias where you have a 43 which is only 2 events but is enough to for a trigger and is 7 plays It might be wise to change the name to 'SHORT TERM NOR' or something but last 3 events is valid as an average across all trigger of 3 events average Hope that clears it up and doesn't confuse people on the 3 part of it I have been doing a lot of testing and thinking and I have defined a trigger as: Any series of events that produces 3 WINS IN A ROW OR 4 OF 5 THATS 80 - 100% W/L RATIO EG OPPOSITE 2111 = LWWW OTBL 32 = WLWWW REPEAT 24 = WLWWW SS 213 = WLWWW S40M1 / TBL HARDER TO DEFINE BECAUSE YOU COULD ALSO DEFINE THE OPPOSITE SECTION AND REPEAT SECTION SEPARATELY BUT AFTER A BIAS OF REPEAT OR OTBL - 3 CONSECUTIVE EVENTS OF 3 OR MORE WITH 2 OF THOSE EVENTS BEING GREATER THAN 3 EG 2232111311 - WE HAVE A OTBL BIAS AND THEN ZZ=5, 3IAR, ZZ OF 4 OR MORE ALTERNATIVELY WE COULD HAVE 22324113 - OTBL SECTION FOLLOWED BY 4IAR, 4ZZ, 3IAR ALL SETUPS ARE FOR SHORT TERM WINS - 1 UNIT UNLESS YOU SEE FIT TO GO MORE YOU CAN GET A DECENT HIT RATE BY PLAYING THE FIRST BET AFTER THE TRIGGER BUT I HAVE BEEN WORKING ON RECORDING THE W/L RATIO FOR EACH TRIGGER AS IT COMES SO YOU CAN DECIDE WHERE TO JUMP IN AS THE FIRST BET AFTER THE TRIGGERS IS NOT ALWAYS GOING TO BE GOOD ALSO RECORDING THE LENGTH OF THE BIASES IS VERY BENEFICIAL AS IT DOES FOLLO PATTERNS AND YOU CAN PICK SOME SHOES GO FROM LONG BIAS TO SHORT AND THEN BACK TO LONG AND IF YOU CAN JUMP ON THOSE LONG BIASES UNTIL SHORT TERM WIN OR 2 LOSSES THEN YOU CAN CLEAN UP ALSO 2 SHORT BIASES USUALLY MEANS A LONGER ONE IS COMING I WILL POST PLAYS BUT IM REALLY EXCITED ABOUT THIS ALL BETS ARE FLAT BET UNLESS YOU SEE FIT FOR 1,2 LOOP OR UP AS WIN / UP AS LOSE TO GET THRU A BUMP OR SUPERCHARGE YOUR WINS. IF GO OTR FLAT BET UNTIL 2 LOSSES. EG 2111322111243 2111 S40 - LWWWWLL = 5 PLAYS (5 PLAYS UNTIL THE 2 LOSSES) 32 OTBL - WLWWWWWLL = 7 PLAYS 24 REPEAT = WLWWWLWW = 8 PLAYS AND COUNTING SHORT BIAS I FOUND TO BE 5 - 8 PLAYS MEDIUM UP TO 12 PLAYS LONG BIAS LONGER THAN 12 PLAYS FURTHER TO THAT BECASUE WE ARE RECORDING EVENTS ITS EASY TO SEE IF THE SHOE IS BETTER FOR SAP BETS (ALL 3'S STAY 3 AND GO NO MORE) OR MDB+ (DIFFERENT EVENTS MIXED IN) YOU CAN PLAY ALL 3 AT ONCE ALL SHOES HAVE TO BE VULNERABLE TO AT LEAST 1 OF THE ABOVE IF NOT 2 OR ALL I DONT SEE IT ANY OTHER WAY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted January 31, 2016 Users Report Share Posted January 31, 2016 P11313511111322211221211111213132 ZZ's: 3272224237332 Multiples: 12421112 NOR Short Term Setups with first and second hit after trigger in brackets: S40M1 (go till 3 losses flat bet) - WLWLWLW(L)(L)WWWLWWWWWLWLLL = 20 Plays SS - WWLW(W)(W)LL = 6 Plays R - WWLW(W)(W)WLL = 7 Plays S40 - WWW(W)(W)LL - 5 Plays OTBL - WLWW(W)(W)WWWLL - 9 Plays S40 - LWWW(L)(W)LWWLWWWWWWLWLL - 18 Plays OTBL - WWW(W)(L)WWLL - 7 Plays SS - WLWW(W)(L)WWWLL - 9 Plays (All biases apart from S40M1 go till 2 losses flat bet) (triggers are determined by any pattern which creates 3 wins in a row or 3 of 4 - try them and you will work them out) (first and second wins after triggers are valuable to help you know where to jump in) (length of bias is important to try and work out when to get out or when to go OTR) Apart from short term NOR its good to be able to determine if a shoe is more 'MDB+ friendly' or 'SAP friendly' This shoe I feel is more 'SAP friendly' MDB+ bets I made: after 4 multiples - bet next 1 stays 1 That also coincided with OTBL bias which I expected to tank as it had 6 wins straight so it was a double signal That's the only MDB+ bet I made SAP bets 3's will stay 3 - theres was no 4's and only 1 x 5 and it became very clear to me that 3's were going to stay 3 throughout after the 7 x 2's I was sure the shoe would produce at least 1 more event greater than 2 before the end - and it produced another 2 x 3iars 4ZZ - usually always see consistency between 3ZZ and 4ZZ - way2fast said this was one of his strongest triggers and I'm beginning to see that - I bet the 4ZZ would stay 4ZZ producing 1 for the shoe. Apart form the short term NOR setups I try and look if the shoe is better for SAP bets or for MDB+ bets or 50/50 The best description I could say to describe it is MDB+ is 'chaos' - McVince used that term and its a good choice - you don't see any consistency in lengths SAP - is ''tuned length' - everything seems to be tuned and theres minimal 'chaos' Another way of thinking about it is I think of MDB+ as an unpruned hedge or uncut grass with weeds SAP is like a landscaped garden or a pruned hedge Start looking at shoes like that if you don't see it and you should Of course all these things are short term and can tank or will tank eventually and at any time so minimum target is 1 unit unless you see reason for more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted February 1, 2016 Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Should have played it as 2.2.1 We should be looking more at up as you win and 2.2.1 Approach. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted February 1, 2016 Users Report Share Posted February 1, 2016 Sure thing Keith I will be getting into stats for profits very soon A little behind with technology. I agree up as you win is very effective There are pros that only play up as you win and never a negative progression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Looi Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yesterday and today I have lost 40 units , sad very sad. not working , Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigVic Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 5 hours ago, William Looi said: Yesterday and today I have lost 40 units , sad very sad. not working , Sorry to hear that... -40 units playing NOR or something else? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted February 2, 2016 Users Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Every bet should have a win goal and a stop loss - if you see an opportunity you will either be right or wrong and you cant keep chasing something that doesn't go your way. At the same time even if you are right you cannot keep betting the same and expect the bias to last without having a win goal Minimum stop loss on a bet is 1 unit. Minimum stop win on a bet is 1 unit - this can go up or down as you see fit Every session has a stop loss and a stop win the same as above Every day can be made of multiple sessions which also has a stop loss and stop win like above And so on If you are losing then you can use virtual bets before you hit your stop loss to avoid a streak of losses that do come from time to time Only bet for real after you get a paper win If you get a paper win and then lose twice like that then wait until 2 paper wins before betting for real If that doesn't work you will probably nearly be at your stop loss anyway If you lose a session clear your mind of the loss and of the shoe. Only resume if you have cleared your mind and can return fresh Casinos make their money from players who increase their bets to cover their losses. Seriously William how did you lose 40 units in a day? For me that's 10 losing sessions in a row I expect to lose 1 in 5 hopefully less If I lost 2 in a day that would be day over for me I don't think you had control. No matter what bet selection you use there will be rough streaks That's why bet selection is only a small part of staying ahead And another thing - did you record your losing shoes and can you work out why you went wrong and how? . If you did then post them - I'm happy to give my opinion and sure others will too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted February 2, 2016 Users Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 William many times I will play in virtual mode if my w/L ratio is not 50% or better I always record my w/L ratio on my score sheet if it goes: wLwL I will play if it goes wwLwL that's good as soon as it goes LLL or LLwL I stop until I get back to wLwL or better which is 50% or better so sometimes I will be in virtual mode for longer than I play - actually quite often frustrating at first and hard to be patient but when you learn that you are reducing your losses then you understand that its actually saving you losses and a potential long losing streak This is what wolfat said about riding the waves of luck except he does it with reduced bets rather than paper wins but for me I believe I can make paper wins count ok. Also this is similar I feel to what way2fast does when he says he often spends more time observing than playing - what he is doing is working out the tables and how his luck is related to the bets in his mind on any given day In that way I believe he is doing the same thing as what I do but in his mind Only in his mind when he sees that MDB+ bets or whatever are hitting at a decent rate will he play In that way he is reducing losses and a potential losing streak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legacy Players Wendel Posted February 3, 2016 Legacy Players Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 (edited) 11 hours ago, William Looi said: Yesterday and today I have lost 40 units , sad very sad. not working , Edited February 3, 2016 by Wendel posted in error 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Looi Posted February 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 It is my mistake I try to chase my loses .I should not chase my loses with higher bets. You are right Brad 01, I should do paper bet first if it is good than I go in, if it is not good than be patient and wait, thanks Brad01. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Looi Posted February 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 5 hours ago, BigVic said: Sorry to hear that... -40 units playing NOR or something else? it is my mistake for chasing loses, I have learn a lesson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted February 3, 2016 Users Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Yes we have all done it. I used to play progressions and then decided to reduce back to 1,2,3 and then back to flat bet / 1,2 Whenever I got into trouble I always found myself raising to a 3 bet even though I had decided I wasn't going to. It took me a while to get the discipline to stick to a flat bet or 1,2 and now I can say I have that discipline - I never place anything more than a 2 bet and many times flat bet That's not to say you have to play like that you can play a progression and have a stop loss but chasing your losses is the point - not to do it Like I said progressions are like a credit card - get something for nothing now and pay it back with interest at a later stage - And your payment period just came in William! Also like a martingale - the system that can win over 99% of the time but you still lose!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Smith Posted February 4, 2016 Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 Do you have your shoes I'd be interested in seeing your bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Looi Posted February 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Keith Smith said: Do you have your shoes I'd be interested in seeing your bets? I will record down all my shoes in future. For study and correction . I believe it will help others also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Looi Posted February 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 Today shoe P13131131132171211 it is low 2s SAP 1s 11, 2s 4, 3s 16 , 4s 4 so this shoe is low in 2s, I use TB4L flat bet and win 3 unites Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Looi Posted February 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 The next shoe I encounter is P 1235112116 SAP 1s= 5, 2s= 4, 3s=4 ,4s=8, This shoe is random So i apply MDB ++ rule number 1 and get 1 unite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Users brad01 Posted February 4, 2016 Users Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 good that you go back to basic but I believe any sho e can win at bias and MDB+ at same time because every shoe have both just not always lots of both at same time Many short term nor wins in second one look at my scoresheets on last 3 events played tonight easy money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
William Looi Posted February 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2016 Today this shoe at hand 26th P311422621121 SAP= 1=5, 2=8, 3=4, 4=8, not so bias and not so random i choose to use MDB use rule number 3 only put aside rule number 1, because 2s is high and 3s is lowest. I get one unite with this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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