Message from Ellis that he wanted posted on BTC

[ECD]

In the interest of fairness, I have posted it in it's entirety...together with my answers. I hope that I haven't trodden on any toes.

AN OPEN LETTER TO BTC

Guys, I’m not the enemy.

Your real enemies are the casinos!

And they are smarter today than ever before.

Their profits today are higher than ever before.

Factory Preshuffled Cards were a God-send to the casinos.

Somehow they made card fixing legal!

Sure, we still get super chop = S40 !

We still get super streak = Repeats !

And we especially still get lots of OTB4L !

Why? Because nobody in the casino can beat them but US.

I’m using the term US for old time sake.

A member just posted one on my public forum hot from the casino.

I played it by the book OTB4L and scored +71 with the 345 progression – err...just a minor detail...You based at 3 so your total has to be divided by 3 which gives you a total of just over 23 units...still pretty good but not anywhere near as dramatic...also interesting to note that somehow you knew to stop at +71 before you hit those 2 losing hands...Clever move...you must show me how you do that sometime. 

Firstly...That piss easy shoe was not a typical "TODAY" type shoe but a hand shuffled Live Dealer Online shoe.

Secondly...This is a typical Ellis played shoe where you can see the whole shoe in advance and miraculously know to start with OTB4L after the first hand and even more miraculously know that it is a prime candidate for the 3 4 5 Progression...still a 29% PA is not to be sneezed at if you had Flat Bet

 

Absolutely the safest Exploit progression there is.

Not quite as safe as your "Secret Weapon" 6 7 8 Progression...Remember that one?...It's the one that got me banned from CFC for pointing out that it was the "Progression you play when you aren't actually playing a Progression"...Little difference to Flat Betting...BTW: What ever happened to the "Secret Weapon"?...It was supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread

I could have lost all 5 5 bets and still win the shoe at +21... That would be 21 divided by 3...You keep forgetting that minor detail

I played the same shoe as we would play it now...Flat betting only to get a true indication of the PA

Total Bets = 35

Win = +29

Lose = -6

Total = +23

HR = 83%

PA = 66%

You in effect made 15 BAD losing bets that most of us would recognise as BAD bets but you have to make them because your mechanical system says that you must...That makes no sense at all.

We still get Strong Side!

I recently Exploited a bunch of them at Lake Charles!

We still get Super Random but very rarely –

The casinos learned their lesson on that deal!...Yep...cleaning up on those reds and greens will teach em a lesson...The Pit Bosses will be shaking in their boots next time you pop in.

Guys, you can’t win every shoe so you need to Exploit in the right situations

when your SAP count tells you to...a bit difficult since most of our better players have dropped SAP and have gone with Norm's Unweighted SAP (The SAP you have when you don't actually have a SAP) ...I think it's called an ET...Events Tracker 

THAT is when you make 5 bets! And that is ONLY when you make 5 bets!

BACCARAT IS A GAME OF OPPORTUNITY !

And opportunity presents itself often. Sometimes at the bleakest hour. Casinos are not perfect!

Do not sit there and watch opportunity go by. Jump on it. The 345 is the safest way!

And BTW, you need to ALWAYS keep a SAP and an O/R count – more important today than ever before! Those counts are your BEST systems identifiers and your best Exploit identifiers...WRONG on so many levels...NO mechanical means of identifying your system choice can come close to learning to read a Toteboard and using that in conjunction with tracking events ...overall combined events...recent combined events...overall separate events and recent separate events. The O/R is for Newbies only and is like taking baby steps...sooner or later you need to grow up and step out with confidence...and SAP, as you espouse, has reached it's "use by date" 

AND your BEST Leave The Table identifiers.

But today we get a whole new type of shoe we have to contend with

which we never saw before the advent of Preshuffled (fixed) cards.

I don’t know what to call them – I could think of a few things but I will politely call them Mixed shoes.

Super Chop turns to Super Streak and keeps switching at different unpredictable intervals.

Lots of those at South Point, Vegas. I learned to switch right with them. But that casino ploy cost me my first losing day in 20 years. (I'm not going to dignify this with a response except to assume that you must have been struck on the head with a very heavy object because your memory seems to have suffered) But I got even with them on day 2 and killed them on day 3!

TB4L turns to OTB4L and back and forth – Orleans Vegas! You need triggers to switch right with them.

You guys had your short fling with GUESSING ( playing W/O a system). 99 point something % of Bac players play that way and THE CASINO KNOWS this full well. They make guessing from history totally impossible and all guessers lose at spectacular rates in a freaking 50/50 game. Is this where I mention that ct70 hit +20 on his first shoe two days ago simply flat Betting with a PA of 55%...From guessing...finished +55 for the session without ever going below -2...He hasn't had a losing day for so long I can't remember...his average PA is high 30's to 40's....w2f playing/guessing with $2K and $3K units as witnessed by two players that were thinking of joining CFC...Do I mention that "Guessing w2f" was actually hounded out of one casino because his guessing was winning more units than they were comfortable with...probably would have been OK if he had been playing those pesky reds and greens...eh?...BTW: They changed the rules to stop his guessing...LOL.. .Kevin...His guessing seems to be working a treat...Vinny has moved towards a more FTS (Follow the Shoe) type game and is going great guns and others doing well...not to mention the greatest "GUESSER" of them all...Norm Allen RIP who went from $25 units to $5K units and over $2million in two years...and me...I must be doing OK...it's my sole income and I haven't had to resort to selling systems to supplement my income. 

Yeah, yeah, I know full well about the Bank edge but look at it from the standpoint of Opposite or Repeat. EVERY play from play 2 on is one or the other. The odds are exactly 50/50! If you simply flipped a coin you’d win HALF the hands in the long run – yet players average a 43% hands won rate overall because they THINK they can GUESS from history! So much for that deal !

HINT: Betting against the table (with the casino)! Now that’s an even better deal today than ever before BECAUSE the casino Bac profits are higher today than ever before! You might want to give that some thought. I certainly am!

HINT: Mixed shoes: When history is meaningless (anti NOR) you want to be Net Betting because it totally disregards history. BUT, you need to know when a side should Suspend and when it should Resume. You’ve got some smart guys over there that could design such a fail safe system. I did! – ANB. Way2fast? Vinny? Kevin? ANDREA? Oz? If ANB is your idea of Failsafe system, I strongly suggest that you stay the F***k away from parachute design

HINT: But there is NO single Bac system that wins overall. That simply does not exist – unfortunately, and never will – especially against TODAY’S shoes! You need 6 arrows in your quiver these days – one for anti NOR shoes!...6 arrows...is that all?...LMFAO...I wish I only had 6 arrows and then maybe my head wouldn't hurt so much.

HINT: Today the casinos have the players by the balls, especially with their sucker bets, Dragon, Panda and Ties. Those bets are why casino profits are so high – Those along with their new anti history, anti NOR “Mixed” shoes. I looked for correlation – there simply wasn’t any – what seemed to work one day failed the next.

Dragon pays 40 to 1 but only occurs 1 in 43.

Panda pays 30 to 1 but only occurs 1 in 33.

Ties pay 8 to 1 but only occur 1 in 10.

Sucker bets for the novices.

HINT: So I was playing at Flamingo recently and my chip pile drew a lot of spectators...A chip pile of reds and greens attracted attention??? You must move in different casino circles than I do...LOL

One of them yelled out: Ellis, put up $50 on Dragon and I’ll match it !

Before I could say anything the DEALER yelled: “Ellis never bets Dragon or Panda or Ties. He KNOWS better!” THAT ought to tell you something!

Later that day at that same table and with the same dealer, with a large crowd of spectators, 6 of us (3 I had just met)  ran the table out of chips in 2 shoes, all of us playing ANB by the book! THAT ought to tell you something too! NET freaking Betting! I haden’t seen a “table takedown” in 20 years. I thought it was a figment of Jerry Patterson’s imagination! But there it was for ALL to see in all its glory.

Guys, I’m not perfect – I lose shoes too, but I also Exploit when I KNOW the time is right! There is a time and place for 5 bets.

I’ve had ideas I’m not proud of, but I’ve had a lot more I AM proud of – like the SAP and O/R and O/T counts and Net Betting and the 345 Exploit and The Plow U1D2 and no losing days for 20 years at any of Caesar’s 40 casinos in spite of being a most frequent player at many of them.

It is a 50/50 game plus commission.- nothing more. By far the best odds in any casino. You just need to know how to identify casino tactics and use their own tactics against them instead of falling victim to them.

Preshuffled cards stumped me for a time – but not forever. They are a brand new ball game that require brand new tactics but they CAN be beat.

I didn’t want to leave BTC – I was banned And it had nothing to do with my play.   

But, I’m the best you’ve got and I think you know that – even if it pisses you off...I'm not pissed off Ellis about you thinking that you are the best...I don't give a shit...Self Praise is no recommendation, and I could name at least 5 players on BTC that would shit all over you but that achieves nothing and might cause some embarrassment...but I do have a question for you...

Given that Norm went from $25 units to $5K units in less than two years...w2f regularly plays with $2K and $3K units and higher (a $40K+ trip isn't unusual)...Kevin plays whatever the hell his mood takes...Andrea pretty much the same...Nick is playing Black a lot of the time...Vinny too...I've lowered my unit size for various reasons but trust me each time I walk out of the Casino, my winnings would cover that New Hummer that you covet (BTW...They are no longer in production...but don't let that stand in the way of your covetting)...so the question has to be asked...20 years with only one losing day...WHY ARE YOU STILL PLAYING WITH $5 AND $10 UNITS?...It just makes no sense...unless...???  

The casino is the enemy, not me! I think you know that too.

I wish you guys well and good play. Use your heads and Beat those bastards.

I wish I could teach you ANB but that would not be fair to the members here...Don't you worry your little bald head about it Ellis...All the top players on BTC already have ANB but none of them use it...Surely that must tell you something. I actually hoped that it would work because it's so much easier than what I do...but in testing, I got smashed...as did w2f and a few others. Papa Joe actually had high hopes...fiddled with it some...thought he had got it to work using it in conjunction with OTB4L but again it crashed and burned. If PJ can't get it to work, that bunch of reprobates on CFC have no chance. While we are on the subject...Why no mention on your Public Forum about all the refinements being made in your Private Forum to try and get ANB to work? It is wrong on so many levels to be flogging off an untested unproven system as a finished product with no right of refund.

Also...Please for the sake of honesty...cease and desist referring to Carlos as an "Independent Tester" or "tested by outside source"...That's a blatant lie...He has followed you around for over 20 years...He is for all intents and purposes, your little lapdog...If you told him to roll over and play dead, he would do it in a flash. BTW: You need to have a chat to him about "loyalty"...because the emails he sent me trashing your systems probably aren't high on your Christmas reading list.

If any member wants to post this at BTC, I don’t think they will mind – hmm, but you never know about those guys – they invent enemies in their mind. The casino – THAT is your true enemy!

You aren't our enemy Ellis...None of us hates you...but we all hate what you do. There is a difference. I hate to see people get ripped off by scammers and like it or not...that is what you have become.

 

 

 

 

 

Vinny sent this to Ellis in response

Ellis,  saw your post on CFC.  Why don't you reinstate our log on so Nick, W2F, OZ and I can respond

 

Hi Vinny and thanks for telling me. I'm 77 years old now and I don't have the time or inclination to have stupid dog fights with those guys. They need to be spending their time designing a way to beat fixed cards because that is what the name of the game is these days. I saw your Vinsap deal. Those guys should be helping you with it. You can't win today only knowing what I was teaching 5 years ago. The game is always evolving. We have to evolve with it. We have evolved Ellis...more than you know

 

Those guys have my ph # and email if they want to contact me. But I can't have them on my forum taking pot shots at me - not good for business.  Oz should be ashamed of himself. WHY...For telling the truth and trying to prevent people being scammed? They should be asking (telling) Keith to reinstate me. Then we could fight it out at BTC if need be. As is, Keith is going right down the tubes. But I simply don't see what we have to fight about. We are all on the same side.

You picked this fight Ellis with your constant trashing of BTC and and our players  and I returned in kind and please note that none of us were banned from CFC for trashing you but for pointing out probs with your systems. We were banned for trying to help but you couldn't see past your 160 IQ and your giant ego. In effect, you banned your BEST players and left yourself with "YES" men...the dregs of the Baccarat world...That will work out a real treat. You seem prepared to let Dean take the fall for banning all the guys, but it's your Forum...Who made him God?

BTW: While we are on the subject of Dean...in the interests of harmonious Forum relations...a bit of advice...You might mention that if he wishes to continue with his posting of half naked pics of himself all over the internet...He really needs to work out more.

 

As for BTC going down the tubes...I don't know where you are getting your information but BTC is going great guns...Keith has instituted some really good ideas ...one being Strategic Baccarat...which may prove to be the best Baccarat Practice tool ever devised. He is listening to the players and meeting our requests and we can't ask more than that. 

BTW: That would be the same Keith that you claim has never had a winning Baccarat session in his life and he absolutely smashed it at the recent crawl ?

 

Also...Keith showed admirable restraint for a long time while you were sniping at him and refused to retaliate in kind which says a lot about him...me though ...not so much...LOL  

 

You have my permission to post this @ BTC if you want. I can't.

Ellis 

 

Just one more thing Ellis...a challenge...

 

You devise a Flat Betting system that averages over 60%HR and I'll beat it by 5% and allow you to post it on CFC for free.

 

Why not?...You are the one with the 160 IQ...40 years of Baccarat experience...All the advantages are with you...You have nothing to lose.

 

Also...I am so confident in ct's rapidly improving Baccarat skills since he left CFC that I will stake him in a head to head challenge with you at $500 minimum table stakes. That should be worth the price of admission...The rumble in Vegas...CFC v BTC...No hard feelings...nothing to lose either way...What say you Ellis...Are you up for it?...should be fun and a way to mend fences.

 

Hmm...I suppose that I should have run this by ct first...Oh well, ct...You know what I always say..."You can't help bad luck"

 

BTW ct: If you lose my money...I know where you live...LOL

 

This could be really entertaining...One of my best ideas ever

 

Oz   

 

Just one final comment Ellis...To my knowledge... I repeat...To my knowledge, every player who left CFC to come here for whatever reasons is now winning at the tables and none are using Negative Progression Systems.

   

Edited November 12, 2017 by ECD

[Keith Smith]

Thanks for your kind words Vin and for your support OZ. 

I struggle with this at times as it is a sad case. I first ask why would Ellis want to post here? Well for one reason only,  to search for customers why else? He wants names of new people to sell his methods to make a buck. 

But reading all the nasty things that he has written about me and this forum what does he think I will do welcome him with open arms? That aside, what is he going to sell, his win every shoe method for $750 dollars? 

Take some advice Ellis for once in your life.  Go back to Blackjack, sell your NBJ and WCB. Tell people that you must play traditional strategy when the cards are random instead of saying all card counters are stupid. Make a club format and get the respect of people giving them value for their money. Charge them $50 bucks a month and give them the manuals and teach them Basic Strategy and card counting when the cards are random. Teach them NBJ when the cards are non-random.  Show them when to not play basic strategy and when to play traditional strategy. Don't tell them you haven't lost in 20 years if you believe that in your own mind you need medication I have seen you lose hundreds of times. All else has failed for you,  why don't you try humility and the truth it works out better for you and we will all respect you again. 

[ECD]

Wow Keith, awesome and very thoughtful advice.

[kachatz1]

This one hit the nail on the head, Keith.

Liar, Liar...your pants are on fire...

                                      (You can “google” the rest ...)

[avion]

If Ellis wants to know who or what is the REAL ENEMY.....just say so.  And even if Ellis doesn't want the answer.....it's COMING SOON.  

[avion]

On ‎11‎/‎11‎/‎2017 at 9:56 PM, Keith Smith said:

All else has failed for you,  why don't you try humility and the truth

The true ENEMY.....is the EGO.   Not the casinos, and not any internet forum.   Consider "My opponent is my teacher. My ego is my enemy.”
— Renzo Gracie

It was stated that BTC guys "invent enemies in their mind".  A great example of the ALL AND POWERFUL WIZARDS EGO.  The put down of others....and the GRAND EXALTING of who is above everything and everyone else, and knows everything so much better.  

"But, I’m the best you’ve got" was stated.  Consider further "The problem with ego is that it tells us we know better even when we don't."

Another example of "ego telling you that you know better when you really don't have a clue....."You guys had your short fling with GUESSING".

Also stated...."I can't have them on my forum taking pot shots at me - not good for business"   Which begs the questions not only of what is your business and how do you treat your customers?  Do you give a refund to a customer who clearly finds they are not getting what they pay for?  An even more important question is....WHO ARE YOU HELD ACCOUNTABLE TO?

It is well known that quite a few of the very best there is, you took ahold of like a worthless piece of paper and wadded them up and threw them in the trash can, simply because they had a better idea and questioned you to the disliking of you feeling threatened and your insecure little ego that wasn't all about you decided to BANISH THEM.   The above examples are NOT just happening in North Korea due to ego.  "not good for business".

Why should Oz be ashamed.....for trying to help you?  Why trash Keith for being the best partner you could ever have?  It is more than clear...."Ego has stolen true greatness from many by diverting them from purpose to recognition."  How great....thou aren't.

In lieu of current events.....clearly showing the abuses of ego at the varied expenses of others, so it is also....in these regards.

Keith is 100% correct......"humility and truth" and I include "gratefulness".....defeats the enemy of EGO !!!

 

 

 

[wolfat]

Great Avion,

I'd add also: 

"casinos managers know our moves and changed cards..."

...everytime!   lol

[Hellboy]

A great recent book to read is ‘Ego is the Enemy’ by Ryan Holiday.

This will explain what can happen to an ‘160’ IQ.

This book will do wonders for your Baccarat play. IMO

H

[BrianJohnsonsHat]

Thanks for the recommendation, Hellboy.

Poor ECD...A 160 IQ doesn't mean he has social skills or common sense, merely that he's good at figuring out a certain type of logic problem. It's a shame that he doesn't seem to have any real friends who could maybe try and get it into his skull that all he is doing by posting all this faux "I'm a victim of you meanies" BS is making himself look a laughing stock. He is instead surrounded by lap-dogs, and even seems to be recruiting more to his little kennel. He seems unable to even make a post on his site without spewing out the kind of brainwashing sermons that would be worthy of a tv evangelist. He is gambling's equivalent to the Bakkers - remember them?.. from the 80's? I recall Jim ended up being sentenced to 45 years for accounting fraud and conspiracy...just send me all your money and you'll be saved...hallelujah...and that Barbie-doll wife of his Tammy-Faye was doing all the sentimental stuff on the PTL (Praise the Lord) tv network shows whilst fluttering those spider eyelashes...it was all just a blatant scam, yet millions got suckered in by his  brainwashing and similar psychological techniques focussing on people's fears as they wanted to believe they would be saved, god would love them and treat them nicely etc. The Phil Collins song "Jesus he knows me" was basically making fun of the whole circus, and the video is hilarious as it's just so true. The thing is that people want to believe, and that makes them vulnerable.

Ellis's sentimental look at the "old days" is either to get back on your Christmas card list, or it's to make himself look the victim and get new potential recruits who are making up their minds whether to choose CFC or BTC to choose him...Mr Nice Guy...while making BTC seem like a muddle of clueless guessers hopelessly cast adrift without their spiritual "Leader", the Great Man himself.

P.S. looking at his avatar I think we can see where the partially-clothed thing came from. What is it with these guys that  they think the naked upper torso is somehow a good or macho look? Haven't seen a pic of Carlos yet - clothed or otherwise -  but I'll bet it won't be pretty...

[Hellboy]

Yep, such a shame.  Baccarat is such a great game, far more than just B or P or 50/50 as the pundits say.  Baccarat is a mental game by far.  It will push the normal person to the limit.

I see this every day as gamblers throw money after money away.  There is no respect for the game with a lot of people, and it will bite them badly. 

The goal is ultimately to beat this game, and the human brain is said to be so much more sophisticated than any mechanical computer could ever hope to be. 

So what has happened to this 160 IQ?  To me this ongoing debacle is so sad.

Ego on its own is ok.

Greed on its own is acceptable.  We all want the best for us and our family and friends.

Ego + Greed is such a deadly combination.  160 should know better. IMO.

H

[wolfat]

I must say that I start finding all this story very sad.

IMO, Ellis is still brilliant baccarat mind, the problem is that debating is not an option and this, in a field like baccarat, is a mere disaster because you cannot sell a product 100% reliable, it will ALWAYS lose to something, and customers NEED to know why and when.

A honest debate can help to increase strengths and decrease weaknesses, after that, everybody can take their own options.

Another problem is to not be able to think "outside the box", proposing the same old U1D2 in its variations, is a gift to casinos; no others MM have been taken into serious consideration.

I have already wrote about my suggestions to E.:

be honest with customers, shows pros and cons of the methods, the when and why, after that, anybody is free to take his own risks,

accept and encourage debate and infos exchanging, things that make players grow; make serious testing before claiming successes un existing.

my two cents

A

[Keith Smith]

As I have sent my suggestion to him in this forum any many others but he has never been able to get past his I am the greatest that ever lived attitude.

[kachatz1]

On 11/14/2017 at 3:39 AM, BrianJohnsonsHat said:

Thanks for the recommendation, Hellboy.

Poor ECD...A 160 IQ doesn't mean he has social skills or common sense, merely that he's good at figuring out a certain type of logic problem. It's a shame that he doesn't seem to have any real friends who could maybe try and get it into his skull that all he is doing by posting all this faux "I'm a victim of you meanies" BS is making himself look a laughing stock. He is instead surrounded by lap-dogs, and even seems to be recruiting more to his little kennel. He seems unable to even make a post on his site without spewing out the kind of brainwashing sermons that would be worthy of a tv evangelist. He is gambling's equivalent to the Bakkers - remember them?.. from the 80's? I recall Jim ended up being sentenced to 45 years for accounting fraud and conspiracy...just send me all your money and you'll be saved...hallelujah...and that Barbie-doll wife of his Tammy-Faye was doing all the sentimental stuff on the PTL (Praise the Lord) tv network shows whilst fluttering those spider eyelashes...it was all just a blatant scam, yet millions got suckered in by his  brainwashing and similar psychological techniques focussing on people's fears as they wanted to believe they would be saved, god would love them and treat them nicely etc. The Phil Collins song "Jesus he knows me" was basically making fun of the whole circus, and the video is hilarious as it's just so true. The thing is that people want to believe, and that makes them vulnerable.

Ellis's sentimental look at the "old days" is either to get back on your Christmas card list, or it's to make himself look the victim and get new potential recruits who are making up their minds whether to choose CFC or BTC to choose him...Mr Nice Guy...while making BTC seem like a muddle of clueless guessers hopelessly cast adrift without their spiritual "Leader", the Great Man himself.

P.S. looking at his avatar I think we can see where the partially-clothed thing came from. What is it with these guys that  they think the naked upper torso is somehow a good or macho look? Haven't seen a pic of Carlos yet - clothed or otherwise -  but I'll bet it won't be pretty...

Wow, BJ

Good Stuff! 

         - Just when we all thought  it ” safe to go back in the water...”, Dr. E. Says enuff to try to scare us into believing that ( Baccarat ) hell really might just freeze over ...

( and here I thought I was out on a limb with my references to music, movies and general mayhem as they most definitely apply to the games we play... and how we deal with them...)

You just got crowned TheKing...

     ( long live TheKing!)

[Pando]

And just for good measure, from the forum that cannot be named, we have this gem today;

 

Good question Chris

The Table Town Promo was suppose to end after the summer because the true value of what Ellis’ teaches is worth 10 times more at least.

 

We only did it to improve our membership because Ellis is determined to create a lot more millionaires from our membership pool.

 

Now we have achieved that membership goal and it’s time to start working with those individuals whom choose to become our next Baccarat millionaire in the making.

 

So at that point our systems will most likely go up to $3,000 or higher to learn the holy grail of gambling vs playing at a very high skill level.

 

And even at that price it’s still under valued compared to the rewards.

 

So like real estate and all other sound investments even Art, value is measured and determined by it’s rewards not it’s costs.

 

And we already know what happens to great art when the Artist achieves his highest level with his craft.

 

It goes up exponentially in both cost and value.

 

Need I say more?

[wolfat]

add this:

LMFAO!

[avion]

one last description......megalomaniac......a person who suffers delusions of their own power or importance.

such as....makes up his own rules for others, but doesn't abide them for himself.  Example.....he doesn't want anyone to disagree or have a better idea than he does.  He calls that taking "pop shots" at him on his forum, and calls it bad for business so he bans them......yet sends his own pop shots to members and owner of BTC.   So what do you call that?  Inconsistent?  Play by my rules or else?  Oxymoron? Try.....HYPOCRISY.  As for "bad business".....you will reap what you sow....and it will happen...sooner or later.