kachatz1

Not sure I understood it either, but I guess it's his blog... And it never ceases to amaze me that people spend their whole lives having to pay for others' expertise, and they think a few $$ to learn a lifetime "skill" of learning how best to leave a casino with the shirt on their back constitutes a scam? Here's an idea, and it's free...next NOR manual, throw in a few recipes, a couple of plumbing tricks and some information about how to be your own dentist and sales will skyrocket! HA! Or, even better a copy of the 1995 movie Se7en, starring Brad Pitt and Morgan Freeman...nobody, and I mean nobody can win LT @ baccarat without recognizing how the " seven deadly sins" come into play every time one enters the casino ( or plays online) Gluttony Greed Sloth Wrath Pride Lust Envy Anyone Recognize them in your own " baccarat personality" ? . Be honest with yourself...they prevent us all from being better players than we are... Watch the movie, and you'll see what I mean. Either way, Ellis, the dialog you had going with Lee Evans was very interesting, to say the least...I know he wants to write a book about his Bac experience, it's just that I would guess that less than 1-in-1,000 people could learn much from it...I wish him the best. And Dave, too. Let's just keep up the good work here...

All members, junior, senior, passive, active... Take a look at the dialog posted on ImSpirit's Blog which takes place between Lee Evans and Ellis... Not sure how to post a link but just "google" ImSpirit and got to the Lee Evans blog...BTW, ImSpirit ( aka Dave, Virtuoid) is well-versed in mathematics and has been on this BTC forum in the past..met him at one of the seminars... Easy reading and some very good points about how and why NOR works so well, as contrasted with another person's documented approach to bet selection/ money management..Lee Evans is also articulate and makes some interesting points which Ellis comments on... Great perspective on ST versus Longterm look at what typically happens

Carlos- Cannot believe this! $5/ month and I can ask all I want? That's less than the cost of one of those "free" drinks in the casino!!! And unlimited access to NBJ, WCB, etc? I AM SiGNING UP AT ONCE! ( now tell me how I sign up!) Kachatz1

Ellis- Thanks for your comments today about U1D1 vs. U1D2 as pertains to NOR+ , and the way it adds a "twist" to straight OTBL to handle the occasional long streak... The above was from a thread started in January, and as we delved into it a bit, it appeared that there was a lot of interest in a " refresher course" on the various progressions which might be deployed, whether conservatively or aggressively , whether positive or negative progressions... Could be useful as additional info for NOR /NOR + approaches to a shoe and then be incorporated into the manual for all NOR baccarat players consideration... Is this something could actually be related to the type of shoe? Or using suggested trigger/capture points ( like +5, +10, units, etc) to move into a more aggressive progression/ more conservative progression. Seems there is a lot of discussion on progressions throughout the threads, but perhaps these various progressions pros/cons could be " encapsulated" in a single thread so that we can all better integrate into NOR play? Thoughts?

Hey, Tiam62 Likely the time zone difference means a small delay in getting your questions answered by Ellis.. Not to worry, as NOR Baccarat Player you have access to many, many threads/ posts where questions are similar to yours and you will likely discover some answers to your questions...HOW MANY OF THE THREADS HAVE YOU READ so far??? Many new NOR players hoping for instant "fix" to solve all problems to the way they play and open door to instant profit gold mine. Unfortunately, does not work so fast without understanding of NOR + Practice+ Patience...mostly you will find NOR methods simple to understand once you master Opposite/Repeat counting and therefore deciding which of three methods to play the shoe at hand( playing Neutral, or Opposites, or Repeats = NOR = 3 methods) Practicing which method ( NOR) to choose/use depending on shoe results +Money Management choice, etc. can be accomplished by just buying 8 decks of cards, performing your own shuffle and dealing them to yourself at home After about 10 shoes, you will grasp the O/R count process and be able to choose which of 3 types of shoe it is and how to play ( NOR) After about 20 shoes you will understand how/when SAP comes into play and when it is relevant and you will be comfortable with all BTC record-keeping on your scorecard After about 30 shoes, you will be ready to visit the casino with much confidence, and knowing your own personal comfort levels for stop-loss and stop- win , so overall you will be a consistent winning player. From then on, nothing will come along you do not understand or can decide to walk away for/ change tables with no remorse! Patience is very important to this game...I wish you all the best and hope you take advice to practice at home with your own cards before you risk any real money...and always read your NOR manual once-through before any casino session! We are always learning....So very important in addition to Practice + Patience, you come to the BTC forum often...we have all been where you are, and soon you will be helping others to understand...

Hey, Carlos- Thanks for the explanation...One of these days I am going to invest in the BJ manuals...Keep up your quest to be the best!

All this and home in time for lunch...Congrats on a very nice win! I do not play much blackjack, and searched the forum for explanation, so have to ask....what is a Tri Point? And how did you decide when to switch between basic strategy and " Tri Point play"?

Met DaveL. ( Imspirit) day 2 at PA seminar, and then watched him play one time at Rivers Casino in Chicago... Also,if you look at his post about Dave Gunas on ImSpirit, I was there in CT with the Davester... Best thing is, I have long "accepted the math" of THELONGTERM, but since i learned to play shoe-to-shoe, and exploit the greatest diparity within the shoe,I am a consistent winner! (not every shoe, but far-and-away most of them...) I fought the "regression-to the-mean" thing for years,and never got much going , mostly losing... Until I found this forum... I am all over ImSpirit's math...do not doubt it for a minute...Same for WizardOfOdds But when i hear/see/contemplate "no chance to win long term", "bet banker only", "cannot win w/o a negative progression", etc my stomach turns sour as I know this NOT to be the case... Two hardest things any casino game... WinAndGoHome LoseAndGoHome So long as one has the tools at their disposal to evaluate how to make their winning sessions WIN MORE than their losing sessions, life is good. Oh, it is still "gambling" (just by virtue of being in a casino,you are "classsified"as a GAMBLER)...but like any business endeavor, I prefer to call it "informed decision making", and, in its purest form "INVESTING" ( OH yeah,people do lose money as INVESTORS also, but the whole idea is to capitlize on the results of those most successful in this endeavor/be right more often win more $$ and ingreater amount than being wrong/$$ lost...) And Ellis has shown he has been dishing out good business logic re: baccarat, on the back of his personal endeavors/success for many years...)

Witchy- Ellis/Keith can post the best links...i am prettty limited in that regard Definitely a debated topic back in 2009 Focus was on P/B, O/R and OTBL/TBL disparities...what they meant...how to play. I am not sure of the chronology of when came ADOT, when came RD1, when came S40, when came S40A, when came SAP ...then the whole Maverick thing with F, and then the modes F2/F3, then NOR, then NOR+OTR switch, etc. I am sure I missed a few...but if Ellis will piece-it together for us, and explain the logical steps "we went from this to this to this" ( and why), i am certain you will see where I am coming from to arrive at the current "focus" for method of advantage baccarat play... I tried to find a single,summarized discussion of DISPARITY to which i could direct you ,but could not...but YES, it was all over 2009 posts... Elllis, we need a history lesson!!

I do not know howto do it...

Witchy- of course I will post the shoe for you...BUT TO ANYONE ON THIS FORUM, I MUST TELL YOU "UP FRONT" I DO NOT USE THE VERTICAL FORMAT ( I USE HORIZONTAL), AND I DO NOT USE THE "STANDARD" NOR MARKINGS.....I USE A COMPARISON CHART WHICH HELPS ME KEEP TRACK OF WHAT THE DISPARITY IN THE SHOE TELLS ME IS STRONGEST/WHERE TO BET...( and I look at SAP as well...) Also, i play shoe-within-a -shoe opportunities, so this adds even more to what you might perceive as confusion over my play, but it is just what I do! BTW,NOR is strongly "rooted" in DISPARITY ( REFER BACK TO 2009 "disparity" FORUM POSTS...THEY DO NOT MAKE THE DIRECT "LINK" FOR YOU, BUT I FINALLY FIGURED OUT THE CONCEPT OF DISPARITY WAS A CRITICAL, GAME-CHANGER ( for me,at least) when it came to how i could best/most frequently WIN WITH NOR YES, I went to the seminar in PA, YES I have the manuals ( original + Steve's update) AND yes, very importantly,i TAKE THEM WITH ME AND OFTEN REFER TO THEM b4 I PLAY A SESSION!!! First, the shoe: B III I I II III I II IIIII IIIIIIIII I I I I I I ( TOTAL 33) P III II I IIIIIIII III I I III I I I I I II I II ( TOTAL 32)...i stopped before the end of shoe SO I WILL GIVE YOU THE BLOW, BY BLOW ACCOUNT...TIES EXCLUDED! here we go: REMINDER- AGAIN, I RECORD THE SHOES NOTING THE DISPARITY BETWEEEN : B/P O/R OTBL/TBL SAPCOUNT i know this is not true NOR recording, but it shoes me the "math" behind S40,F2/F3,the O/R count "movement" away-from/towads "0",and throws in SAP for good measure... Play #1: No Bet 2:No Bet 3:No Bet 4: Bet on P 1unit,F looking like the play ( Lost...down $25, one unit) 5: Bet on B 1unit, because seems good for F shoe ...really too early to tell, though ( Win...back to even) 6: Bet on B again , for same reason as above...(Win...+$25) 7: Bet on B again, fo same reason ( Lose...back to even) 8: Bet on P , thinking F ( Win...+$25) 9: Bet on P again, thinking F shoe (Lose...back to even) 10: Bet on B, thinking F shoe ( Lose...down $25) 11: Bet on P, thinking F shoe ( Lose....down $50) Time to reassess::: lost 2IAR 12: No Bet 13: No Bet 14: Thinking F again and noticing P Disparity over Bank is now getting interesting 9P,5B so far ( Bet on P, and win...now down only $25) 15: Bet for more F ( Win...back to even) 16: Fmode + Pbet is strong diparity...( Bet P and win again...now +$25) 17: same as #16 ( Win again...now +50) 18: P disparity now 14-5 over B ( bet2units =$50...Win,now up $100) 19: P + Repeat + TBL disparities all very high, + SAP count tells me to bet even more on P( bet $100 on P...and win...now up 8 units for shoe =$200) 20: Bet P again,but reduce my bet back to one unit( Lose...now up $175 for shoe) 21: Take a breather...no bet 22: Assume I am back to strong side , bet ( Win...+$25 brings me to +8 units again, or $200 gain so far) 23:Bet P again ( Win...+$50, now up 10 units) 24: Bet P again (Win...now +11 units) 25: Bet P again ( Strong F ) ...( Lose 2 units...now back to 9 units) 26: No Bet 27: No Bet 28: O/Repeat count still exhibits strong Repeat tendency,especially for P,so I bet one unit on P ( Win...+$250 for shoe) 29-34 ( time to take a break and collect my thoughts....10 units is "decent" win, even after commission, and I have to use the restroom...) 35: I come back to the table in time for hand 35...P result at 32,33and34 ( strong O/Rcount especially favoring P side) indicates to me to bet 2units...( Lose- now down to $200) 36:Bet P again...(Lose,now down to +$175) 37:Undeterred,i still believe P is strong-side F...( Lose,now down to just +$150) 38: Looks like strong side F has switched...so i bet one unit on B ( Win + $175) 39: Same as 38 ( Win...back to +$200 overall for shoe) 40: Same as 39 ( Lose...back to +$175 overall) 41: No Bet 42: Repeat looks strongest...i bet 2 units( Win...now up 11units for shoe =+$225 overall) 43: Same( Win + 2units) 44: Same( Win +2units) 45: Same( Win+ 2units) 46:Same ( Win + 2 units) 47: Same ( Win +2 units...nowup total +21 units for shoe...glad i did not get out at +10, but resolved not to go below +15 as the game moves forward) 48: Same: ( Win + 2 units) Note that B/P count the same, and SAP count is way out of whack...low 1's,low 2's,high3+s,including an 8 and the next play makes it an 8 and 9 for this shoe!! 49: I am on fire/en fuego! I bet 4 units on B ( Win...now +27 units!) 50: Wished someone had "hosed me down" after that 4 unit win,as I wager another 4 units and ( Lose...backto 23 units)...should i reset my stop-loss for this shoe? 51: I am still convinced the O/R count is strong,and since 1-IAR SAP count looks low still, I jump back on the Bank ( recent strong side F) ( Win$25 ...+24 units for the shoe) 52: Am I dreaming? (could be... it is 2am by this point in the shoe...) Will this easily be a 30 unit shoe? I skip the 2 bet, and go right to 4 units on B, and...( Lose...down to +20 for the shoe...) 53:What the Heck...Repeat still strong on B side...I wager 1 unit ( Win...back to + 21 units) 54:Emboldened, and knowing I cannot go below 15 units for the shoe, i again jump to my 4 unit bet on B ( strong)side and ...( Lose...down to +17units for the shoe) 55-No bet 56:No bet 57-58: Yikes: i look back and notice the last 7 hands...all ! IAR...suddenly 1's are moving up beyond normal Frequency of occurrence, O/R coutnt is rapidly moving the needle towards "0",my heretofore F shoe is changing, and OTBL count is getting crushed by TBL DISPARITY!! So i wait and see what happens...and YES, turns out #57 is another Opposite..., so I decide to take a chance and bet #58 for 1 unit Opposite...( Now +18 units for shoe) 59-65,to where i quit the shoe as above...i squeeze out another 3 units by just focusing on TBL Disparity, which as you can see ends with the highest amountof DISPARITY for any P/B, O/R or OTBL/TBL measurement by the time I exited the shoe @ + 19 units -- after commission,and giving the dealer and cocktail waitress their share of the booty(winnings) In Summary- 1) I told you I keep my scorecard differently, but that I do it horizontally really has no impact on playing NOR,NOR+OTR,or SAP 2) I have mentioned in other posts my thoughts that tracking B/P, O/R andOTBL/TBL disparity is intrinsic to how i play...I recognize that for many of you reading this, this does NOT look like your NOR scorecard, but I have played many,many years, and if you read Steven's updated NOR manual you will see where I am coming from...THIS IS HOW I MONITOR THE SHOE, AND DECIDE IF I NEED TO CHANGE FROMNOR TO NOR+OTR PLAY,AND WHEN TO SWITCH, IF AT ALL...( yes, it does take practice...but in a shoe like this, it really helped me out) 3) I am generally leery of too big a reliance on betting progressions,as they oftimes move me to a stop loss early in a shoe...but when I think the shoe is pointing me that way, I start and raise/lower my unit bets 4) AS A SHOE IS DRAWING TO A CLOSE,OR I AM THINKING OF EXITING THE SHOE, I TEND TO GET MORE CONSERVATIVE, SINCE I HAVE WORKED SO LONG, and do not want to give up my gains... 5) I still think SAP has a placce in the game, and I thank Ellis and his disciples ( like Paul) for it 6) When appropriate,I am definitely looking at the P-side of the game versus the B-side of the game to identify shoe anomalies...this shoe was a real roller coaster,and the kind where it really comes in handy All-in-all, it likely appears that I track an awful lot of metrics to guide my play...and I do, but you all need to know that I am best when I am playing by myself, nobody else around, and I can play a shoe like this one in about 45 minutes...even with my thought processes all working! To me, this is much better than playing midi-bac, or with a bunch of people who "debate" the merits of the tote-board and each hand takes about 3-5 minutes to play!! Hope I haven'tconfused you too much Witchy...I do play NOR, which is just neutral (OTBL) Opposite (s40) and repeat (F), but I tend to focus on the metrics of P/B, O/R and OTBL/TBL DISPARITY as the basis for what is really happening in a shoe... If you are interested, look back at Ellis'2009 posts and the discussion on DISPARITY...i think this is the best I can tell you as to why I monitor my play that way! Simple...It works for me!! Good luck to all... P.S. I cannot get the shoe to "post properly"with breaks betwen Player/Banker switches...you may want to write it out on a blank scorecard the way i presented it inmy original post...sorry

Hello Madog- Are you the blackjack " Machine Gun Kelly" some of us met at the Blackjack seminar in Las Vegas? If so, I was very impressed with your BJ playing style/ approach to the game of BJ .. If not, oh well..... As to the old maxim "AlwaysBetBanker" for maximum chance to win, there have been countless books, articles, statistical studies, and just plain old empirical evidence which suggests that very premise... They all have to do with a loosely-defined sequence of a large number of plays associated with TheLongRun, The definition of duration and frequency for which have surely been debated since the inception of the game.. And likely smarter minds than us average players here on this forum would vote resoundingly in favor of the LongRun's imminent effect on the outcome of a LARGE number of decisions proving just that... But just what is the LongRun(?), and how about the many, many ShortRuns of actual casino play whose decisions result in a decided Player advantage being, in fact, resulting in the greater gain? My actual results over last 4 days play in Biloxi MS, played at 4 different casinos , resulted in the following: Hard Rock. 7 shoes, played at various times over the last 4 days, not all played start to finish. 241 Players. 220 Bankers Beau Rivage. 4 shoes, played partly Sunday am and partly Monday pm, again not 100% 96 Players. 109 Bankers IP Casino. 6 shoes played over 3 of the 4 days, all but one completely start to finish. 212 Players. 191 Bankers Isle Casino. 2 shoes played 100% start to finish Monday, consecutively 74 Players. 81 Bankers So...... Over almost 23 hours of play ( all times of the day and night...Ouch!!!). 623 Players. 601 Bankers Is this the Long Run? Hardly... Did I bet every hand? NO. If I had bet $100 all Player, I would have won $62,300 and lost $60,100... $2,200 Net for 23 hours of work If I had bet $100 all Banker, I would have won $60,100, less 5% commission paid out on all Banker winning bets of $3005.00, and lost another $62,300 on all Player bets for a net take of $(5,205.00)... Yikes, I would have paid them for the privilege of spending 23 hours on this endeavor $226.30 per hour! In point of fact, I made almost $4000 after all Banker commission and tips to Dealers, cocktail waitresses, et. al... My point, Madog is simple... Forget the conventional wisdom. Anything can, and DOES happen in TheShortTerm I am NOT disputing the mathematics of the game played over the Long Term!!! It's just this... I do NOT bet only Banker or Player, whether a few plays, part of a shoe, or a bunch of shoes spread out over many times of the day/ different casinos Why? Because of this forum and what I have learned. You seem like a " quick study" , and capable of doing even better! All the best to you...and good luck to all!!

Here's an interesting shoe from the Hard Rock Biloxi in the wee hours this am, played after driving back from a great SuperBowl over in New Orleans... P33211181 B133111235 P19111111112 B1112 Stopped playing at +19 units Look closely, and you'll see little in the way of overall P/B disparity for the shoe ( but , observe the swings during the shoe) Same for O/R count But keep a close watch as the shoe unfolded at the OTBL/TBL disparity ...TBL took over the shoe , and that's how I came out ahead...in this particular shoe it was helpful in spotting where to focus my bet placements I was the only one playing, and no free hands, and they only have one BAC table...so I had to keep my wits about me to watch all the things changing as the shoe progressed...and it WAS a roller coaster ( and it WAS 2am and I hit Bourbon Street at 2pm Sunday, 12 hours earlier..they don't call it Bourbon street for nothing!) One thing that might help other NOR players is to look back at the posts on DISPARITY within this Bac Forum occurred back in 2009... Once I discovered those, it made NOR much easier to "apply"/decide what to do...just the way my brain works, or something, it just really helps me pay that much more attention to what is going on in a given shoe...and betting accordingly Thought for the day: Even armed with the best toolbag in the business (NOR), when constructing a house of cards, it's always best to know how to read the blueprints.

Welcome HotCooler I read your post over and over, before deciding how to answer. Without seeing anything more than an Excel spreadsheet, it is impossible to give simple answers which will be of any true help to you, with the exception of noting that you give many, many signs of consistently and knowingly violating your own RULE #8 as indicated above. That you have so frequently been able to "recover" from so large of daily "deepest downdraft" amounts has likely emboldened you to the point where it is likely, as you so aptly observe, that very soon you will experience, and act on, your urge to GO ALL IN , and wipe out your bankroll in a single day's play. That's the bad news. The good news is you have chosen to visit the best doctor on the planet to diagnose and fix what ails you! Yes, Dr. Ellis is very capable of dispensing the right combination of sound advice and proven "baccarat medicine" to make your play ( and more importantly, your results) so much better that you will quickly learn the answers to all of your questions above..before it's too late. I suggest you immediately invest a portion of your profits into a full membership in this forum, where you will have 24/7/365 access to an incredible amount of information about money management, mental discipline and, yes, incredible strategies employed by like minded baccarat players from all over the world. A small investment will provide a tremendous return , and more importantly, positively save you the many, many thousands of dollars in bankroll losses you will surely/definitely/undoubtably experience otherwise! ( PS- we have all made the very same mistakes you will make, until we found this BeatTheCasino forum we now call home...Do yourself a big favor, and don't " gamble" that your luck so far will be enough to ensure February will be as kind to you as December and January were...) The fact that you are so organized to keep such precise records of your daily results suggests to me you are on the doorstep of a very lucrative baccarat experience...one which you will enjoy for many, many years to come.. Just be certain you open the right door...it is clearly marked, but many choose to ignore it. Hopefully, you won't be one of them.. In summary: 1) You've come to the right place, and there is a lifetime's worth of learning inside, if you are willing to take advantage of it. 2) In the meantime, keep your day job. Best of luck to you and all of our forum members!

I am personally in favor that keeping a lookout for these ShoeWithinAShoe opportunities is a way to squeeze out a few extra units from a shoe...and this is exactly as I play. Whenever the moment presents itself..... Naturally, nothing is perfect and my experience is that I have to be careful NOT to confuse / get caught up in playing the The BIG PICTURE ( the overall shoe trend) with the LITTLE PICTURE ( playing the two sides of the shoe ...like PvB ) differently When I have shown others how I keep track of this, likely it is a bit overwhelming to someone not having played BAC for many years..even though for me I find it very easy to keep track of this extra SAP disparity by side (PvB)...it will stand-out/stare-you-in-the-face when it surfaces./ warrants exploitation.. AND I THINK THIS IS EVEN DEEPER THAN / MORE COMPLICATED than this thread has to be ( but I would be happy to explore it separately!) Reading back over many posts re: SAP, I like where your post is going, just not sure how we put it in easy-to-adopt scripture for NOR? I know Ellis decided not to include in standard NOR... As they say in our Western-genre movies: " Meanwhile, back at the ranch.." I am thinking that The Good Doctor will come up with a SimpleWay to evaluate/match MM progressions ( UP + DOWN) with the 3 overall shoe types espoused by NOR, and this will be great ammo to add to our arsenal of casino weapons! And I am optimistic his approach(s) can be boiled down and placed right within the NOR manual for all to see/ understand... Blurtri, if ever I get the chance I would like to meet you in person and play together! I am 100% certain I have FORGOTTEN as much or more about playing disciplined BAC as I currently deploy in a shoe, and you are touching on some great advanced concepts to squeeze-out a few extra units in a shoe....problem always seems to arise that we begin to cross over the line now famously termed "TOO MUCH INFORMATION" HA!

We can reach an agreement on "WHAT-2-Call-IT" when needed.... I am most excited thatoutside of application of NOR concepts/play ( even NOR+) , this is ( IMHO) the most important "proceed-at-your-own-risk- if -U-choose-2-ignore-I.T. topic" about LT Bac Success! Plainly,it is T.H.E. "do this for max return on your bets" topic... we have something to discuss/ evaluate which transcends all geographic boundaries, all countries, all languages....and it is right-in-line/fits the day-to-day needs of all our constituents... And e.c.d., outside of your incomparable mastery of "winning-friends,and influencing-people" ,with your incredible grasp of both verbal and mathematical communications/concepts as pertains to OUR GAME, I no -doubt expect a high rate of participation in the debate/discusion ... FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD! Yowzah!! vegas, singapore, new jersey, bahamas, uk, canada, macau, costa rica, italy....UNameIT! MyOpinion? if we do not get it worked-out here, for all to understand, then our forum is either hearing-impaired or just "tone-deaf", meaning they just do not understand enough about Bac to know they must know/recognize "how -best" to maximixe their wins, and minimize their losses... By the same token,we must be certain we can ULTIMATELY SUM-IT-UP, as " here is how to do it..." ...now we have combined Best Placement/Bet Selection with the best-in-class MM application ( by shoe type) ...AND WE HAVE A WINNER EVEN THE KEITH-STER WILL LOVE FOR ITS ULTIMATE APPEAL TO CURRENT forum members, and new "recruits" !! Once we combine an addition to NOR manual with a solid, well-vetted approach to "progression-betting-advice , by shoe type" , we will be rockin' the house!! Very,very excited on this topic...crucial to A.N.Y. serious student/player of the game...

Chris- Excellent idea, and sure to become an update to West Coast Steve's "updated" NOR manual...definitely deserves its own section.. So here are my thoughts: 1) Lots of stuff already on the forum about PROGRESSIONS/PROGRESSIVE BETTING...most of it dating back to 2009/2010 so definitely time for an update/advanced discussion ( private forum members can google the prior posts...) 2) No discussion complete w/o a look at stop loss/stop win parameters in the mix 3) We learn NOR to be S40/F/OTB4L...all good, but really anyone wants to understand NOR roots, they need look no further than the "DISPARITY" posts from 2009 addressing the following: PvB disparity OvR disparity OTB4LvTBL disparity Why is this important?? Because wouldn't our ultimate goal be to come-up with a way to approach/suggest/apply MM "betting progressions" ( both UP and DOWN!) "linked" to the shoe type/history/where it is "in the moment"... Heavy Opposite?...Likely suggests a certain approach... Heavy TBL?...Likely another approach.... Notice that P or B are running rampant over the other side, and are the Biggest Disparity in the shoe?...need to know that, in that case, we should "USE THIS PROGRESSION" APPROACH ( might have to change mid shoe...) I started a thread back in November, 2012 that talked about betting progression "histories"...where they came from, how they work, what they are good for,why how/when they "lose"...SURELY A "PROGRESSION 101 " primer for anyone really wants to understand progressions...( Chris, I know you took a look at it back in November...). I am not touting the book ( it was authored over 100 years ago!!), but I am saying that truth-be-told, most anything we come up with today is rooted in stuff that has been around a long time...they just did not have Baccarat/Gambling forums or the internet to instantaneously "promote/discuss/modify" !! but we can... This is exciting... I am sure Ellis will find this creative endeavor a very intriguing "puzzle" to help us all solve, and I know he has a lot of resources to help us all out... I follow Dave Lavedad/ImSpirit's "stuff" ( he was at the PA NOR seminar, and is the one followed Keith and Ellis to Atlantic City after the seminar,and lived to tell the tale!), and surely he would help us out, as Ellis references in his reply to your post... I am thinking that this progression enhancement ( by shoe type) addition to NOR would serve to establish even more that in the Baccarat Universe, NOR is ir-refutably/ "hands down"/ no-doubt-about-it THE BEST BACCARAT STRATEGY/APPROACH of all time ( P.S. - I do not like the word "system", likely just my own prejudice) This will be a great thread, and I think all serious BTC players will be posting... Currently, here in the States, our United States government is contemplating a change to its own Constittution, established several hundred years ago, involving its citizens' "right to bear arms" As far as our "right to bear arms"/use-any-weapon at our disposal versus the Casino, we can write our own "laws"!! Great idea , Chris...now we have to follow LARRY THE CABLE GUY's advice and "git'er'done"!

Most I have personally experienced while playing last 15 years is 3-in-a-row, and then 5-out-of-6 successive hands resulting in tie. About a year ago I played a shoe with 8 ties in the first 18 hands of a shoe, and then only one (1) tie the rest of that shoe. I waited until the beginning of the next shoe when those cards ( the blue ones) were played again , and placed a bet on TIE the first 20 hands of that shoe...only got 2 ties, and that whole game there were only five (5) ties in the whole shoe ( below average for a shoe...) Personally, I have never figured out a way to capitalize on consistently betting on ties... However, here are some baccarat superstitions I have heard uttered many times: First hand of shoe will be a tie Last hand of shoe will be a tie Ties often repeat ( back to back) Always bet on PLAYER after a tie If ties occur in second or third line of a shoe ( keeping track horizontally on scorecard),, bet for ties to reoccur in that "line" later in the shoe Yes, I have observed all of these things happen, but likely no more than their pure mathematical odds of occurrence over many , many shoes Two things I do believe... 6-6, and 7-7 ties make up over 60% of all ties , and even with an 8-to-1 payout , it is not a good bet... All that said, and having determined that TIE betting over a long period is indeed a losing proposition staistically, thing that seems to work most often for me is if I make a bet on B or P, and instead a TIE results, I just leave my bet in place as if the tie never happened. There are lots of old threads which have some discussion of TIE betting in them right here on the forum...and they all generally conclude as follows: DON'T DO IT! ( just my thoughts on the subject) I am certain Ellis will be even more outspoken on the subject, as he so often has in the past!

I will second that! A certain well known casino in southern Mississippi almost every shoe these days ends up with very little bias at their lone Bac table... Shoe may start out first 10-20 hands with a bias, but by the end of virtually every shoe the following three things show very little disparity: B vs. P OTBL count versus TBL Opp. versus Repeat Best way to beat their shoes is generally to wait until sometime " mid shoe" and then start looking for any disparity to start averaging towards a 50/50 outcome by the end of the shoe... This works a high percentage of the time AT THIS CASINO, especially if one monitors all 3 variables mentioned above... --------------------------------------------------------- By the way, it's easy to keep a running count on all six of the above...after each hand is played, just put a little mark next to each of the following for whichever wins that decision...something like this. B I I I ( and on and on for the shoe...) P. I I I I I OTBL. I I I I I TBL. I OPP. I I I REP. I I I I I The way I keep track of greatest disparity ( read SHOE TRENDS) is whenever any of the 6 items followed reaches a count of five, I place a / mark and retotal all 6 columns ...this will let you monitor minor trends as well as major trends....Which in turn helps in bet selection After a while a shoe could look like this: B. IIIII / 5 IIIII / 10 III. / 13 IIIII / 18 ( etc, etc for rest of shoe) P. II. /. 2 IIII. / 6 IIIII / 11 I. /. 12 OTBL. IIII / 4 IIIII / 9 III /. 12 III. / 15 TBL. I. /. 1 IIII / 5 IIIII /. 10 III. / 13 OPP. II. / 2 IIIII/. 7 III. . / 10 I / 11 REP. IIII / 4 IIII / 8. IIIII / 13 IIIII / 18 This example is for illustration purposes only, but if I had to make the next bet in the shoe ( hand # 31, excluding TIES, if any), I would first look at a REPEAT of the last result ( greatest disparity in shoe so far versus OPP), and if that just happened to be a BANKER bet ( next largest disparity of 6 versus Player) I would definitely bet BANKER. If the REPEAT would result in a PLAYER bet, I would likely quickly check the SAP count, and depending where it stood I would place a smaller wager on B or P, since the disparities indicated above were so close ( 7 versus 6 ) , perhaps even sit out the hand... Go back to a few of your saved shoes, take a look at them and you will see how a shoe very often plays out to a big disparity for O/R count or OTBL/TBL in many, many shoes even where B/P count is fairly even...For me, this is how My mind " sees" the various aspects " behind the scenes" of applying NOR to bet selection/application of NOR rules... Good luck to all!

Came across a very interesting book about Gambling and Money Management strategies which I think many on this forum would enjoy. The book is entitled Monte Carlo Anecdotes And Systems of Play , written back in 1910 . Anyone interested can "google search" it and read it online...I found it quite entertaining, and still very relevant over 100 years after its being published. Virtually any MM strategy/system/method you have ever read about here or elsewhere...( or tried yourself !!) has its roots in one of the books subject matter. While much of the book is centered around Roulette, there are numerous applications to our 50/50 game of Baccarat, and I think you will benefit from taking a few minutes to check it out. Best of all, as each "system" is explored, the author of the book points out not only WHAT the system is, but also WHY it sometimes works, and HOW it's nemesis/risk-reward factor comes into play. If nothing else, it just might save your bankroll from a costly mistake... Long live NOR...Still THE BEST ....

MidShoe entry WAS available at the time...but since it was way,way past the (be)witchy gal hour ( 4am) only thing I was looking out for we're a few inebriated players lurking the tables across from me... I even figured in advance that if they came over, I would "play right into" their worst nightmare ( someone acting out/seemingly oblivious to what they might have defined as " foolish play". Like splitting 10's, stand on 8/9, etc...) Figured to myself not only would I get rid of them quickly, it would help me since I WAS ALREADY DOING THAT anyways! One think I like about playing 1,2,3 hands heads-up with the Dealer is since I many times have 3 decisions to make, especially at 4 am, it's real, real simple to make it " appear" like I am playing with no regard to my bankroll, the cards, the hour-of-the-day, etc The faster I play, the more I switch between playing 1,2,3 hands, varying the bet sizes on each hand , the more frequently I make those anti-BasicStrategy ( did I just say anti-BS?) moves, the easier it is to navigate under anyone's radar... A few times I will ask the FloorManager/PitBoss " what would U Do?". ( hit, stand, split, double, etc) and it never ceases to amaze me how quickly after a little small-talk and some comments about " should of quit while I was ahead/ Or remark to them " don't quit your day job" ", yada yada, they walk away!!!

Thanks, Ellis At the teamPlay seminar we focused on 1-8 low, 9-10,JQK high and Ace hi-low depending on what it followed...have to agree "8" is a pivot card... All BTC members, read ANY of my posts and you will get a sense for me liking best to play 1-on-1 with the Dealer, both BAC and BJ, and playing as fast as possible. Here's why: 1) Both games, I can block out any/all outside influences ( smoking, slow play, music, Tv, cocktail waitresses, etc, etc...oh, did I mention obnoxious players?) 2) If you are really on your game, you will quickly decide whether the " game at hand" is favorable to you or the Dealer ( or, in BAC, whether it is S40, F2/3 or neutral favorable ) 3) Playing alone gives you total control over BS, MM, pace of play ( I like fast) ... No excuses...you are on your game, the game is NOR - favorable, or BJ " clumped", etc....just IMHO, but no need to take a bunch of time to "decide".....2MuchANALYSIS = PARALYSIS , so far as I am concerned 4) There are no strings attached...nobody to look out for except yourself, no snide remarks from the peanut gallery when you split tens or stand on 9, no table-full of people just waiting to bet against you in BAC Of course, there are many other ingrained habits, superstitions, trigger plays, etc. enter my mind while playing...but the bulk of WINNING STRATEGY is confined right here in these BTC forums... My next post I will add a few things I have observed from playing many hundreds of BAC shoes, and they all relate to how/ when/ where and why NOR is the closest thing to your own personal ATM good luck to everyone!

Could not make the HighStakes seminar, but did attend TeamPlay seminar in Vegas several months ago... At the Mandalay Bay in Vegas Friday night ( really Saturday am) several days ago and just played I-on-1 against the dealer at Quarter table....played one, two or three hands bases on my opinion of where high cards and low cards were "running" , and in less than 1 hour up $1900 ( exactly) and time to hit the hay for a few hours before 10am tee time! Varied my bet size, varied my bet selection ( one, two or three hands), just me and the dealer .... My friends, I can tell you that proper( and fortuitous) table selection late in the day ( in this case the "wee hours") can and will yield CLUMPING! I started with $200 and never went below that amount...did get up over +$2300, but another 10 hands or so and I was back to +$1900...time to color-up, and I did just that.... Took me less than 1 hour, and was I lucky? Of Course. But luck alone did not account for my $1900 win-fall. Plain and Clear, it was my observation of shoe CLUMPING and fortuitous 1,2,or3-at-a-time hand play selection from this observation that got me in the big money....not sure of my hand wins% rate as the play was fast and furious...just me and the dealer...but it was SO EASY for me to keep track of 1-8's as low cards, 9-10,JQK as high cards and Ace high or low depending on what it followed, that resulted in most of the win.... In summary, it was the DISCIPLINE of playing this way that got me the big win. And I was the only person on the team.... Thanks, Ellis and Keith. Long live the Kings.

Steve- Am curious as to the shoe...can you post it here? ( just however many hands were dealt B4 you stopped playing...) I agree many shoes are tough to "read" Thanks

It's all good. Rivers Casino , chicago last night B333132122 B134111131112 B63413111 B414 Quit the shoe!