kachatz1

Banker it is, that's 4-in-a-row Got back to even with my Banker bet, but 6 hands in we are 2P and 4B, both in a row. I am back to even, so I stay on the Banker for yet another Banker...play the shoe for 1 unit. So far P24( unconfirmed ) Glanced over to the other tote board and saw last 10 hands were 5P and 5 B...that table is completely full, with many players betting over-top of the seated players. am I missing something? Gentlemen, place your bets...

Good point by Zebra here, to wait a bit more. Also looks like B@cc@r@t just showed up at the table and wants to bet the Banker. Well the Banker did indeed come through,and that leaves me down 2 units...repeats looking good to me,so Iwill progress up in my progression of 1,1,2,2,4 to a 2 unit bet on the Banker for the next hand. Anyone care to join me? So far we arre looking at the following first 6 hands played: P8 B5 Player wins P8 B3 Player wins tie 9/9 B7 P1 Banker wins B8 P6 Banker wins B3 P1 Banker wins ( and yours truly is down 2 units...) All the while,the casino continues to appear more crowded from my vantage point ( seat 5 at the table...)

Oh, and for those of you who missed out or are just joining in, the first post explains the casino and the playing conditions...THIS IS AN ACTUAL SHOE

Well, ladies and gents, looks like everyone of us not quite ready to take this for a spin. No, I am NOT in cahoots with Elis on this, but i will say his imaginary friendly chip of $1,000,000 large would have been a winner! Bank it was, for hand #5. Leaves us as follows: P8 B5 Player Wins P8 B3 Player wins Tie 9/9 B7 P1 Banker wins B8 P6 Banker wins ( alas, it was only an inaginary chip...) So on to the next hand. PPBB so far ( or P22 for those who wanna know)...looks like a P to me... I'm on P for 1 unit.

Well, vinfong318 was absolutely right, I missed it with my Player bet, and Ellis says no bet still, so here is where we are after the 4th hand. P8 B5 ( no bet) P8 B3 ( no bet, but Ellis did guess P corrrectly) T 9/9 B7 P1 Banker wins. So I am down one unit. So for hand #5 I will lay off as i am down one unit ($25) and it is still early in the shoe. So, what will it be?

Ok, Ellis NO BET and we now have a few of our private forum members chiming in...all no bets. Well, no harm no foul...the 3rd hand turned out to be a TIE. So we have so far: P8 B5 P8 B3 Tie 9/9 Gentlemen, place your bets for hand 4. Me, I am betting 1 unit on the Player, as I like the fact that first 3 hands we have point value of 8,8,9 on the Player...follow the shoe.Others? Reminder to post also your MM strategy and your rationale for your bet.

No lathe, but it was a Player. I did not bet again, since it was only the second hand. So, so far we have: P8 B5 Player wins. P8 B3 Player wins. And the next hand, what will it be? Again, for me no bet just yet.

Had an interesting thought, one I thought all participants on this forum might like and find extremely beneficial. For those of you who arttended the seminar in PA a few months back, you will remember I conducted the same sort of exercise with Ellis and seminar participants at that venue. It works like this: I played several shoes at Potowatomi Casino in Milwaukee last night. nothing particularly unusual or stressful, just plain old shoes that came out of the shufflemaster. For me to simply post the results would be rather boring to virtually anyone who has played a lot of Bac, and uninspiring to those of you who are "newer" to the game. So instead of posting a whole shoe all at once, I will post the actual results one hand at a time, and after each successive hand, as the shoe unfolds I will ask Ellis and ANYONE else who wishes to comment to post their thoughts on whether the next hand will be P or B or T ( I am including Ties as even though they have no basis in our betting outcome in terms of $$ won/lost, I think it only fair you can see them so at least you see the entire shoe exactly as it u:frown::frown:nfolded) Also, I will post the numerical outcome of each hand, including ties, lest this helps you chart your play. The only thing that I ask, that to be helpful to the group is that you explain your reasoning for your "next bet". how much you bet and why you chose to bet that way. Keep track of your own score, and for arguments sake, your maximum starting bankroll is 20 units. You can quit the shoe at any time, or you can enter wherever you like...just like the real world. I will post my selections as well, and why I made them. I hopeyou willl participate, and I think we can learn a lot from this as a group helping one another. Here goes with the first hand P8( natural), B5 Player wins. I did not bet as this was the first hand of the shoe. Ellis and anyone wants to play along, what is your "bet" for the next hand? Remember to explain your rationale, including AMOUNT BET IN UNITS and WHY/WHAT ARE YOU DOING( Sap, NOR, system 40, OT4BL, etc. etc.) Thanks and good luck to all! I will post the next hand after I get at least one reply. Reminder this is a real shoe, played 10/19/2011 beginning at approximately 9pm.CST. There were between 6 and 8 players at all times, and the conditions in the casino were generally crowded and a bit "smoky". There was one other Bac table open.

Met a lot of 160'ers from an IQ standpoint. Very few as "grounded" as Dr. Ellis ( I just conferred an extra level of responsibility and accountability on him). Anyone wants to see the results in Chicago, meet me at the Rivers Casino anytime. Just pm me to set it up. Or, if you like Milwaukee better, it's Potowatami. If you like Mississippi, I play in Biloxi. And, I'll memtion Vegas for those of you who need a SIN in your city to feel whole. Finally, if you want to go international, I will meet you in Macau, but I only go there 1X per year. Never met someone quite like Dr.Ellis... but you will have to do the "heavy lifting" ( meaning play the game he teaches...) I win most every shoe because of him. I only wish I had the time to find a golf instructor with whom I could lean enough to lower my abysmal handicap by 10 strokes... I get paid nada/nothing for this post. I just feel strongly about this issue. I do not post shoes, as I do not even know how, nor do I want to learn. I CAN and will work with you to show you how / why I win...and the 3 worst things that will hurt you big time and negatively affect the outcome of your results. PM me at your leisure, and good luck to you.

Danicito- I have never been to Peru and I do not speak Spanish, but I can say with certainty that joining this forum will improve your Baccarat and Blackjack play immeasurably. I used to play both, but my opinion is that BAC gives you a much greater chance of winning, and the ideas and concepts presented in this forum's private member section are very valuable. For the last 10 years I have played Baccarat about 95% and Blackjack about 5% of the time. I joined the forum about 18 months ago, and like you, I wish I would have discovered it way earlier! The private forum content is excellent, the disciplines necessary to win most of your shoes are explained crisply and in detail, and I have profited many times over the investment to join. All that said, you WILL NOT win every shoe, and it will take every measure of your willingness and commitment to practice the teachings on this forum to become a better player. It is no different than thinking that just because you can ride a bicycle down the street, you can safely ride a motorcyle through the Andes mountains...or just because you can kick a ball, you will become an accomplished soccer player...in both cases, it takes many hours of learning, lots of practice, and the discipline to follow the guidelines taught to you by someone who really knows what they are talking about. And it is not just from Ellis, but you will find the teachings and experience of many other forum members who have spent years formulating the best strategies for play. I wish you well, and welcome. ( By the way, I really love to play both games - Baccarat and Blackjack - at a table with nobody else around, as I find that my decision-making is at its best w/o any distractions. Pehaps I am unusual in that regard, but you have my word that whether playing with a full house, in a casino with one table or 10 tables, by yourself or with others, you will really find a lot of good things here...)

THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS THIS...wanna' win? You start first-and-foremost with the BASIC MATH of probabilities of flipping-a coin. If you can accept that fact, you are ready to learn...if not, best of luck ( you likely have little chance of success )

It is so recession -proof, I am teaching my kids to play. AT FIRST, IT WAS LIKE YEAH, YEAH DAD IS A COMPULSIVE GAMBLER...NOW IT IS LIKE, THEIR FRIENDS AE CALLING ME...

Joeystyle and LENNY181 have both reminded me that I promised to post a few things that realy help me out when playing Baccarat, after I returned from the seminar. Sorry it took so long. BOTH OF THESE THINGS I DISCUSSED IN FRONT OF THE GROUP AT THE SEMINAR. Let me say at the outset that neither is directly related to NOR, but these two things have to do more with the simple math of baccarat and are complementary to NOR play, just like the O/R count and the SAP count. 1) I keep track of the numerical "score" of the Player and Banker hands after each hand has been played. Example : After hand # 1, I record that the P has a 3, and the Bank has won with a 4 ( 4 beats 3)...After hand # 2, I note that the P has a 6, but was again beaten by the B which recorded a 7....and on and on, for the entire shoe... HOW DOES THIS HELP ME, AND WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE? To me, it makes a lot-of-difference, as over the course of the shoe, if I see one side is getting a lot of 8's and 9's, and the other side is getting a lot of low 0's, 1's and 2's I will tend to use this information towards calculating my larger bets. Exactly how I use this I will explain below in (2) 2) When i play Baccarat, I am a firm believer that the longer I play any given session ( even just paper betting and recording the results), the more likely that the basic math of baccarat will come into play. Ellis has writtten a lot about the stats of a typical shoe ( so many 1 events in a row, so many 2 events in a row, so many 3 events in a row, etc), and there are numerous posts throuhout the forum about the exact probabilities of each event. We all come to learn that no two shoes are exactly the same, but we will in the course of our play observe a fair # of shoes in which the number of 1-in-a-row events, and the number of 2-in-a-row events ( like PP or BB), etc. come out pretty even with the statistical norm. Again, lots of posts on this subject in the forum. So how I exploit this is simple. If in the first shoe I notice that there is a shortage of 1-in-a-rows, or 2-in-a-rows, etc. as compared to the normal stats of the game, or that P has far exceeded B in the actual number of results ( or vice-versa B is way ahead of the P's), in the next shoe I will be looking for the Oddities that really stand out to "reverse course" and get back towards a more normal distibution. I call this REGRESSION TO THE MEAN, or simply, a return towards a more normal distribution of events. Important to understand, that every shoe has it's quirks, so this is not a method that I rely on solely to steer my betting strategies, and NOR tells us to "follow the shoe" in current play. By the same token, the longer and further away something gets from the normal distribution of events, the more-and-more likely I BELIEVE it will "tend towards" a return back in the direction of the normal distribution of events, when factoring in ALL PLAYS SO FAR IN A GIVEN SESSION/ SERIES OF SHOES PLAYED OVER THE COURSE OF PLAYING 2,3,4 OR MORE SHOES IN A ROW. This may sound "difficult" to undestand, so I will clarify it as follows: Any good bac player learns that it is very valuable to keep their scorecards, and go back over them to see what they could have done better...so what I do is after each shoe is completeIi record on the top of the card the number of how many times a given event occured ( like 1-in -a-row, 2,3,4,5,6 etc-in-a-row, as well as P and B totals). After the second shoe played, I record the same info, but I also add to that shoe's results the results from shoe #1 for a cumulative total. After shoe 3, I add in the results from shoe 1 and 2, et. etc. for as long as my session lasts. I am no math professor, but I can assure you that the longer you play in a given session, the more likely the cumulative results will parallel the theoretical results ( statistical probabilities of an event occuring, as described above...read all about these in posts on this forum...).So while shoe #1 may have had a lot of , say, 2-in-a-row events, even way out of the normal 25% probability, by the time you are done playing for the night and you have added up the results from all shoes played during that session, lo-and-behold, the more you play, the more likely it becomes that the 2-in-a-rows added up from all the shoes will be about 25% of all plays! Same for 1's, 3's. 4's, etc. as well as P and B. Will it be exact? NO,but trust me when I say that I have used this method very successfully over many years now to help me exploit betting opportunities. So here are some real world examples: a) within a shoe, if P is getting all the natural 8's and 9's, the longer this goes the more I am going to watch for an opportunity that matches up with NOR play to bet larger amounts on a hand where I think the B will win, especially if the shoe so far has a big disparity like I described. within a shoe, let's say it looks like this: PPP B PP B PPP B PP B PPPP B Yes i am going to follow the shoe, but if the numerical values of the scores tells me B is "overdue" for a natural 8 or 9, or P is due for a low score, it is likely that I will bet on that 2nd B coming out, instead of always switching to P after 1 B. Again, the farther the game gets from a normal distribution of events, the more likely it will eventuall return to the normal probabilities c) playing shoe#2 in a session, or shoe#3 in a session I simply am on the lookout for events which have steered away from the normal probabilities, and look for good opportunites within the shoe being played ( again with NOR guidance) to exploit these anomalies and "bet" that the REGRESSION TO THE MEAN will come into play In summary, I am not advocating to play against NOR, I am simply using the concepts of the numerical P/B discrepancies and REGRESSION TO THE MEAN to help me identify points in the shoe where I can "augment" my NOR play with a couple of other elements that the game delivers. Just like O/R count, just like SAP I am not advocating you try this right away, but instead look back at your cards, practice these approaches, and i think you will be pleasantly surprised at your results. Will you be right every time? of course not. Does this replace NOR? absolutely not But is what I am talking about really just the 5th grade math of Bac? YES! So, are you smarter than a 5th grader?

I think it is important that we all help one another, the end result for all will be more $$...sure it is fun to play, but not as much fun when you are at the table winning and everyone is looking at you wondering what you are doing that is working so well. I hope you guys decide to do the Vegas seminar...anybody buys those tapes and watches them a few times + studies their NOR manual til they know it well enough so they are compfortable with all kinds of shoes, plays in real casinos for real world expeience, and gets their mind around a sound MM strategy works for their bankroll IS GOING TO BE A BIG, BIG WINNER when they get to see you and Mr. Smith in action on the Glitter Gulch Strip. Viva Las Vegas!! If Elvis only knew how right he was... IMO

All- I was at the seminar,and there is no doubt that meeting Ellis and Keith, watching them play and observing Ellis demonstrating the finer points of NOR was well worth the trip. If the video is even half as good as the seminar was, it will be the second best investment you will ever make...the first was when you decided to invest your time and $$ to be part of this forum. Been playing Bac for 15 years, and there is always more to learn. And I feel certain that to have those vidoes at your disposal, coupled with the NOR manual, will really improve your bankroll. You willprofit many times over the cost of the video! Well worth the investment, especially if you follow Ellis' teachings... Good luck to all!

Would like us to remove all 4 SALE SIGNS off of the Forum...up to the Forum moderators to decide. IMO, really cheapens our efforts

Ellis- I will be in about 5 pm and will call you once I arrive. Thanks for the offer...I can also just grab a cab if you are busy then...looking forward to it!

You can view the page at http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/content.php?r=1693-Re-NOR-Training-Seminar-in-PA-August-13th

PS. This is the Keith/Ellis show...not mine....I just want you to know that to spend a grand or so on seminar/hotel/flights is a lot of $$, but you will NOT be disappointed...I have never met either Ellis or Keith, but anyone who knows me quickly understands ain't no fooling around...It is THEIR SHOW, and I promise only to "speak when spoken to"

Forget the fact that this may/may not be Ellis' grand hurrah ( lkely he outlives us all!) Ignore the assumption that these kind of seminars are typically B.O.R.I.N.G. If you want to evaluate how-to?/can-I?/Is-it-possible to make a living playing BAC?, you should attend! You CAN make a lot of $$ at this..I do, and I will tell you How, Where and Why it happens.... Don't think for one minute that all you will see/learn is already on the website...NOR is pretty good ( No, it is really good... but TRUST ME, THERE ARE LOTS OF POTHOLES AND LOOPHOLES IN IT'S EXECUTION YOU CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF) ...but I plan to introduce two earth-moving concepts to augment NOR that if you play without, you are just leaving big $$ on the table) Every one of us has been a 'dreamer" at one time or another...In the last 18 months, BTC converted me from dreaming-about-playing for the dough to consistent-big/big winner. And I will demonstrate this at the seminar ( sorry, I play so much, and I have a 10 hour/day real job, that I simply do not have the time to just "post" my actual shoe results, and deal with all the the resultant emails/ questions/comments I do not have time to answer..) JUST WHAT THOSE TWO LITTLE SECRETS ARE...I am willing to share...No, I am not a maverick, and I will not charge a nickel for any of this, but since I am devoting my entire weekend to the seminar, I will only detail it then-and-there.... This is the real deal, my friends, but you miss this, and you miss out on thousands-upon-thousands of winning $$ bets over the life of a Bac careeer... don't have a lifetime?? TRY A WEEK'S WORTH OF BETS...or, just one day, just one BET could get it all back for you...no promoises, just some indisputable facts about the game...you decide. Cannot believe you will pass this one up...promise to see you there and trade a few secrests even Ellis has not exploited ( he is very, very smart, but I only "get it" about 1/3 of what he is saying...how about you?) As always, I wish you all only the BEST!

So very, very true...4 simple words...PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING.. Not sure anyone of us could have put it any better! No matter the casino, no matter the country you are in, no matter if everyone else at the table speaks a different language than you do, or dresses differently, or W.H.A.T.E.V.E.R. Rule #1:PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING Rule #2:( reread rule #1) Just write it in the margin of your scorecard, and when in doubt, just think of those 4 little words...very powerful reminder to us all, no matter what our language, what system we prefer, whether we "score" the game using our Bac cards vertically or horizontally...as the shoe unfolds, and "reveals itself", just PLAY WHAT IS HAPPENING. Thanks for putting it so simply, TangNangDoaHoa !!

Using Black chips, that is the situation. Used a modest 2,3,4 progression where i thought it made sense. Took me about 2 hours ( 1.3 shoes...) So + 31 units, expressed in BTC terms

You can view the page at http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/content.php?r=1691-NOR-Training-Seminar-in-PA-August-13th

OK, so it's another day... Pick your poison... (OOps, I did it again...Brittney Spears or I Shot the Sheriff,, Clapton or Marley, pick it) Decided it was unfair to just say I did it, w/o proving I could do it again... well...........yes and no. So I went back to the Lions' Den that is the new Rivers Casino, and YES I escaped with a $3100 win, but there is a story behind this,,,( go figure) Thought I was just takin' candy from a baby, until... I went to cash out. That's when my troubles began. Did I have a driver's license? ( No , I just have the keys to my car) Did I know my social security # ? ( yeah , but years of that buzzing noise from Jack's Total Juicer had me in a tizzy, hard to remember the #...) OOps, maybe I should have shot-the-sheriff right there....WRONG!! OK, so NOR is an established/verified/slam-dunk But DO NOT try to escape the claws of JohnyEYEinTheSkyLaw...he is watching, he is waiting..........and he's got his eyes on U Got to the cage, and they had me dialed in, within minutes a few beef-cake Security -types ( and one GF I would'a done in a NY minute!) converged on the xene...lots of talking, wanted to keep,my $$ ( buy-in + win...ouch!), I just played it COOL ( asked one of the 20-something security-guards if they were feeling "lucky", they did not get the "punk part") 'til finally they relented and gave me my $$ ( Oh, did I mention I was at the cage for more than 1 hour?) Anyone ever watch the movie CASINO? Thought this doesn't happen anymore? Winner, winner...there is a reason they give you a Chicken dinner ( to cool you off) Nothing broken, here ( bones, i mean) ........... the NOR is ever powerful, and doubtful you will run into the SHERIFF, but keep your hands to yourself Again, nothing but the CHOP, and nothing a little diagnostic O/R charting+ SAP could not handle.. C U in Harrisburg.

Keith- I just booked my ticket...hoping to not just participate in THE NOR SEMINAR, but also play with you guys, have a few cocktails, recount a few war stories, etc. and on Sunday am I have left plenty of time for meet/greet/share/exchange ideas/ show- and -tell ( yes, I hope everyone brings some of their actual played-shoe cards!) I expect to get a lot out of this exchange, and especially establish a closer contact with those of you in our community who know we can/do/will BEAT THE CASINO In the meantime, good luck to all...and I am asking you, Keith to put me down for a room 2 nights...arrive Friday and depart Sunday...PM me if you need anything in the meantime...