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kachatz1

Baccarat Hall of Fame Member
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Everything posted by kachatz1

  1. Best strategy for "TEAM" play? In the context of the above...I have a person willing and able ( BR/MM skills) to play as a team. I seem to remember a play method you expounded upon about 6 months ago...had to do with playing same table during the afternoon, then having dinner together and altering your play style for even greater ( better) results...tried to find it, could not. He is Asian, I am not. He is big units, I am not ( but easy to convert) He is R.A.W. to try this. Both live in the USA, diff cities. Both sufficient BR to make this worthwhile. Any help is appreciated...you can PM me as well.
  2. Hey, Ellis. Personally, I think we are all blessed to see you are back in the saddle. Professionally, that you let your dislike for BF dictate your short-tempered response to my post is dismaying, to say the least. I understand, since you have received such poor treatment/response/disparagement from some of the more outspoken at BF... But that is OK, it is all good in Bac-land, since the chips ( and cards) will fall as they may...And anyone who's had a pacemaker implanted last week is entitled to a "get out of jail" free card or two, at least as far as I am concerned... Be well...That is all I really care about ! Regards,
  3. Like the Seahog, and probably many others of you, I do check out what is going on at Baccarat Forums on a regular basis. Came across a post called Amazing!! Makes a lot of sense, at least to me. Worth your time to check it out...I tested it on six live shoes today, all winners. Easy enough to test on some of the shoes you have at home...or online. Read the whole thread..you will get the picture... Just another tool in the Bac toolbox!
  4. Nice victory at the Borgata...only 45 hands, and you exit with a nice profit..Good patience as well, especially in light of having to minimum bet 10% of your bankroll as well...sounds like you had a great evening all around!
  5. I am most comfortable with starting play at a unit size of 1% of my session bankroll. This generally means I will start out at $25 unit size, and see how things progress for the first few hands...if it seems like the shoe is trending high O/R count, or even high P/B count I will generally move to $50 unit size. From there, I closely monitor +/- changes in my winnings for a given shoe and start thinking about where to exit the shoe...many shoes I will stay through to the end, but often the last 20 hands or so I will not bet every hand and instead just try to spot the most seemingly best opportunities to place a bet on....even dropping back to the $25 level just to make sure I leave the shoe a winner. For me, I play best and most successfully when the game is moving very fast and I am not forced to contemplate a wager for more than a few seconds...even if I have to exit with a stop-loss, I am still just that much more ready to tackle the next shoe. Hardest for me is when having to wait while a tableful of players sit and stare at the tote board to see who will make the first move and which side the most money is on. For this very reason I almost always am the first to bet, as once my mind is made up, not even every other player at the table wagering on the opposite side will change my bet. In summary, bankroll + simple money management are the main components of my unit size, with any up or down progressions depending on how the shoe is working out...
  6. Ellis- You are evermore firmly the head of the Baccarat Hall of Fame, insofar as all of us at BTC are concerned. I think a firm commitment to the words 'lifetime member' means 'lifetime member' has been rendered, and now it is really up to you to determine the degree to which you wish to devote time and energy to a "new and improved" NET BETTING addition to NOR. While it seems incumbent upon all serious students to "attend class" and participate in the discussion of the subject matter at hand, it is always up to the university and the teacher to craft the syllabus...( or just follow last semester's and reteach the benefit of the information to existing/new students) Really, to take NET BETTING to it's next level has to be your decision, and no-one here can fault you for simply referring students to that which has already been published on the subject....looked at it myself today, and with referring people to the most apropos posts, I think most will get the idea of what it entails/ how to apply it/ when to utilize ( if at all...) As always, GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
  7. agreed I had nine persons in Vegas,and most left happy Have to go back to the basics: 1) cannot win every shoe 2) win 2/3 is to be expected playinf NOR
  8. I am thinking no posts = limited results? When in N + O + R "rocks"
  9. No degrees in THAT , but here are some real-life observations of statistics as they relate to process variation. I think our membership will have many others to add...maybe it is seven-sigma? (1) When my kids were very young, I noticed that my wife and I had to find a way to encourage them to pick up after themselves ( their toys, their messes, etc.) initially, we just gave them some sort of "treat" like candy, or whatever, then left them alone to do the dirty work...Result? little in the way of cleaning up, but the dentist always had a smile on his face. So we varied the "process", and instead of candy I demonstrated what a few licks from my black belt could leave on their little hind-ends if they did not comply. No, not a six-sigma black belt, just one I used to hold my pants up ...remarkably, we noticed an incredible increase in the percentage of times they complied with our request! Just the image of me standing there in the room with them and starting to unbuckle that belt seemed to work wonders. Certainly an example of process variation at work... (2) Some time after that, we bought dogs for each of them...I'll never forget how happy they seemed the day we visited the pet store and they each got to pick out their own puppy, and give them a name. Well, anyone who has ever owned a puppy knows it has to be cared for properly, and in the case of dogs, they need to be trained to only do their business outside of the house, not in it....sure enough, a short time after admitting Misty and Brandy into our homes, my wife complained to me that the kids took little interest in feeding them regularly, and had no interest at all in letting them outside several times a day so thy could do their business. Repeated discussions and admonitions proved fruitless, so after about a week I decided to vary the process so that each night after the kids fell asleep I let the dogs out of their cages and put their respective pet in their bedroom with them, and closed the door. Sure enough, each morning there was a "puppy mess" on the bed, or on the floor in each kids' room, to which they resoundingly reacted negatively to the smell and having to clean it up themselves. Alas, things got much better quickly and both kids understood the value of taking care of their "property" and the messes were all left outside in the yard...was it a 100% statistical improvement? Hard to quantify/measure, but it sure was a decent % and I am sure directly related to the process variation which was introduced... (3) Now here we are 14 years later, the kids are grown up, and have advanced professional degrees. Several years back, we found that a "family plan" was the best way to keep our cell phone expenses to a minimum, so we sat down together and carefully laid out how much each family member would pay towards the monthly expenses. Naturally, in the beginning, the checks were sent to Mom right on time every month, and she dutifully paid the bill...and just as naturally, as time went by, both kids had to be reminded that they needed to send in their share of the monthly bill on a "regular" ( ie, monthly) basis...so, about six months ago and after many reminders to both about their responsibility for timely payment, I recognized that it was time for yet another process variation...so I called At&T and had both of their numbers disconnected ( but kept them on our plan so we did not lose the #'s to another party). Lo and behold, after a few days of Dad being blamed for all manner of evil doings and irresponsibility , the phones were turned back on and neither has missed a payment since! The point of all this is just like Keith so aptly stated...it is certain that while few among us hold advanced degrees in statistics, we are all very capable and have learned over the course of our varied lives the impact that "process variation" can have on the outcome of a series of events. Yes, I have long since had to move up a few sizes in belts, I have subsequently learned that the kids named their dogs Misty and Brandy because they thought it a great joke to play on their parents to assign the girls common "stripper" names , and At&T will carry on long after I have cancelled our cell phone contract completely. So when you think about NOR and it's application to making you money, fret not that it "seems" difficult to learn, sometimes "feels" impossible to apply perfectly to each and every shoe, and is in no way an assurance of winning every single time! In short, it is a simple set of concepts that will enable you to apply a process variation to the way most people approach baccarat, and along the way you will enjoy statistically much better winnings... Good luck to all!
  10. Dave is a very kind, well-meaning individual whose ImSpirit posts present an unbiased look at the situation at hand. I met him in PA at the Fall seminar last year, and really liked him...also observed him playing in Chicago when the Rivers Casino first opened up. He is looking at Bac from a truly un-biased STATS standpoint, and his analyses of playing 100, 1000, 1 million shoes and the probabilities for diff outcomes are enjoyable and enlightening. What Dave ( nor anyone, really) has ever been able to adequately/succinctly/verifiably/quantitatively explain with a high degree of certainty is the "mental edge" one gains from playing many, many shoes...in many, many casinos...with consideration for time-of-day/shoe biases, etc. as they relate to winning some shoes/losing others ( YES, Ellis, this is a lot of what you are saying!!!) Frankly speaking, the more you play NOR with a good MM system, good stop-loss parameters and a willingness to quit while you are ahead ( or behind) , I find the better off your chances of winning 1 shoe/1 session/ I week or whatever interval of measurement you choose. Zumma 600, Zumma 1000, etc, etc, etc. is all just theoretical, and one interpretation in the NOR road to switch systems can change the outcome dramatically going forward. To all of us who look at this game and enjoy the very real prospect of making money on a regular basis ( not every shoe/not every session/ not every week)...BUT winning the majority of the time, let the games keep on coming...
  11. Ironically, a Halliburton Zero was given to me by SPORTSBOOK.com about 8 years ago, when I was playing them on line a lot, used to go to Costa Rica for golf and R&R, the wife been there several times..also, Superbowl in Miami , Bulls games, yada, yada Interesting that was their choice of Players Club gifts back in the day ( when they should/would/could pay up...) Times have changed...
  12. are you that guy on TV ( "the most interesting man in the world" ) who always closes his commercials with the line: stay thirsty, my friends... just thinking...
  13. Core- Would love to come there someday...played a number of times in the "old" macau, before sands, etc...I AM SURE GENTING/ Singapore IS DIFFERENT BUT FROM LOOKING AT IT ONLINE, LOOKS LIKE A BLAST Last week I played with another BTC member over in Biloxi, MS. and thee are definitely some advantages to discussing strategy/BS/MM etc. BTW, my friend Bill milked NOR for all it was worth and ended one shoe up 25 or 26 units at one casino, and when we went down the street we could not "buy" a correct bet! Ha!
  14. Sounds really interesting. I'm not sure what it is like at the GENTING, but if you were here in the States, likely after a day or two of you all applying a BTC beatdown to the casino. They are going to have to close a few tables. HA!
  15. Wish it was differn't, but modern medicine has us by the balls. May his soul rest in peace, and may you forever celebrate his life.
  16. Suggest you take the time to read back through all the related threads right here on this forum re: S40, money management, F2F3 , OTBL, etc and it will really help... Anyone have any specific threads they want to point out? Then take some of your shoes and practice those concepts B4 your next visit to the money tree...er, I mean the casino!
  17. Core- I used to think this would be a great idea, and perhaps for some it would/could/might just make sense...read the post ( and the responses from Ellis and others who have tried this) I started 6/20/11 and updated with my one and only attempt at it in my 11/27/2011 post... Made for a whole different "Baccarat experience" than what I thought it would be like!! Anyways, good luck to you and go win some more money at the casino!...I agree that a disciplined, well thought out approach to Playing baccarat is one of the best investments anyone can make...
  18. Finally, THE TRUTH... TANG... THE BREAKFAST OF CHAMPIONS!!!!
  19. They pull out one for P, one for B, one more for P, and one more for B (leaving them all face down, in that order). Then they turn them over. If they need another P card, they pull it and turn it over...if they still need a final B card, they do the same. By that time, and before ALL cards are displayed( whether 4,5 or 6), " the fat lady has sung" ( aka, the light has "gone on, indicating the winner, or a tie.
  20. My point exactly. If they are just going to turn on a light P-win, B-win or Tie...even before the cards are turned over, what's up with that? ( Oh , I get it...no dealer mistakes, the eye-in-the-sky, no dealer cheating-wink,wink- , make the game faster, e.t.c) More important, with the vast majority of the players who like to mess with the cards ( you know who you are...)...2-side, 4-side, etc. but having to play Mini-Bac when Big Bac is not available.... most casinos, especially THE NEW ONES CROPPING UP.... wouldn't Y.O.U. be totally turned off by the lack of suspense, the lack of bac-voodoo-what'ev'a?? And the players will ( if the opportunity is available) just move on down the road...
  21. Pretty soon won't even need to deal the cards...or a dealer...just wait for the light to go on! Now that will surely be great entertainment! A baccarat slot machine coming soon...even bigbadjohn would diss that...
  22. Reading through one of the NOR threads I noticed PJ mention his Baccarat Bandits discussion group. So I "googled" the words BACCARAT BANDITS and found an entertaining link to a YouTube video where a masked man discloses absolutely nothing about a system he wants to sell for $895 ( but he is offering a $300 rebate in the spirit of the holidays, and all) Having read through many of PJ's posts and a lot of valuable additions to this forum, I am sure that Mr. Baccarat Bandit ( stage name "Forexjoe" ), and PapaJoe are indeed not one-in-the-same person...... Compare the Bandit's video with Ellis' Vegas NOR video, and you will know that Ellis is the real deal! As was once uttered frequently in a TV shoe of long ago, " Who was that masked man?" I don't know...Go ask Tonto... And next time you are at the post office...
  23. Wondering if anyone else has seen this... Hard Rock Biloxi has installed a new shoe on their one-and-only mini-Bac table, and it indicates the outcome of a hand BEFORE THE DEALER CAN TURN THE CARDS OVER! Using an optical reader, the cards are "read" as they come out of the shoe and electronically posted on the tote board...even worse, there is a light built into the shoe that goes off just as soon as the value of the cards indicates a P win ( blue light), a B win ( red light) or a Tie ( green light ). So, imagine that four cards come out of the shoe, and before the dealer can even turn them over if one side has won because of a Natural 8 or 9, the light comes on and indicates which side wins! same for a tie... Even if 5 or 6 cards have to come out to determine the outcome, the light comes on before the dealer finishes arranging all the cards.... YIKES!!! Players don't like it, Dealers don't like it. So when I asked a few of the floor personnel who thought it would be a good idea, not a one of them plays Bac, and here are the answers I received: 1) it will attract lots of new players to the game because they don't need to know the rules...just wait for the light to come on! 2) it speeds the game up and everyone wants that, right? And the best of all.... 3) look, we only have one Bac table, so obviously we don't care whether we get a lot of Bac play or not...( and then he turned his back and walked away) So, I finally was able to get one of the real Bosses to come over and I suggested they at least change the sensor so that the light had a small "lag time" before coming on to allow the dealers to deal the cards, and announce the winner... Went back last night, and sure enough they DID MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT... Nope, not to the light but they made the electronic display larger so everyone at he table could easily see each card up on the tote board! Don't tell Mom, but this is either the end of Bac at the Hard Rock Biloxi, or the beginning of something not-so-good...IMO
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