kachatz1

Thanks... Played in Biloxi the other day with Bill and again this played out to be at a level greater than the normal odds, especially after a 4-or-more-in-a-row on one side...

MVS I play at the Hard Rock in Biloxi...I've heard the HR down your way has a lot more Bac players... Up here, they never have more than one table going and often I am playing by myself. Believe it or not, I really don't mind since they let me bet both sides if I am trying to get my bearings.... Anyways, one of these days perhaps we can meet and play together down your way ( I live in the Destin area...) I have a favor...since you have a bunch of test shoes, could you read my HORSE WITH NO NAME post and see what you think vis-a-vis your actual experience? Any questions about what i wrote call me or email me... Thanks and keep up the good work! Regards, kachatz1 kachatz@treomanagement.com 850-687-3128

This is all starting to make sense to me, Clifton. When you have a minute,can you look at my HORSE WITH NO NAME post and explain that math to me? it seems even more profound/different. Again, as i explain in that post the reason I was investigating it is because a number of Dealers have told me about their feelings on streaks...of course, they are on the other side of the table, but i do believe they have some insight into things just from having experienced the game and staring at the Tote Board with all the results ... Best, Kevin

Thanks to all for your responses. Here is what i am trying to say, and what i am wondering if you have experienced: 1) Take a look at a bunch of games you have played. 2) Look at all the 3-or-more WINS in a row on one side (PPP or BBB or PPPPTP or BBBBBBBBBB, etc) 3) Examine the number of WINS in a row on the opposite side just before it switched over to the 3-or-more in a row side as in (2) above _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________- It seems to me that since 1's occur 50% of the time, 2's occur 25% of the time, etc that a 3-or-more Wins in a row streak would only occur after a 1-in-a-row on the opposite side 50% of the time. However, my experience has been that it is almost 54% ( see my original post). I am curious to know if this makes sense as it could be an exploitable betting advantage over a large # of hands ( just another way of helping to decide whether a 2-in-a-row will become a 3-in-a-row, a 3 will become 4, etc.) Let me know what your experience has been... Regards Regards

Agreed about the frequency of events. I have seen your table and understand it. It is very useful information for all to have. I'll be curious to see if others experience the longer runs of 3-in-a-row ( or 4, 5, 6, etc.) more frequently than 50% of the time after a 1-in-a-row...

Hello, everyone... Ever notice how casinos seems to be in the most out of the way places? The desert ( Vegas), A Riverboat ( all over), An island ( Bahamas, etc.)...maybe this is not just by accident, but perhaps is meant to weed-out those 1% WINNERS ... So just to get yourself thinking straight, take 5 minutes and listen to the Band - America's song " A HORSE WITH NO NAME"...yes, you will feel right at home , just like you do playing in your favorite casino...guaranteed if you do this, next time you play you will not be able to get this song out-of-your-head! ________________________________________________________________________________________________ OK, so here I'd like to explore a theory actually espoused by many Bac Dealers, NOT MY ORIGINAL IDEA!!, and I have to admit my experience ( after much resistance) does indeed bear this out... ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ Here it is: Plain-and-simple, the more wins-in-a-row-on-one-side ( PLAYER OR BANKER), when it finally does switch to the other side, it has a higher than average propensity to "switch-back" to the strong side after just a single play in the opposite direction... EXAMPLE: 5-BANKERS in a row ( or PLAYERS) Then 1 on PLAYER SWITCH right back to the BANK for the next play! ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ I have had many Dealers call this the "80%" play, though I find my experience to be a bit different...BUT TAKE A LOOK BELOW!!!!! _____________________________________________________________________________________________ If you have a bunch of cards with actual live casino play ( which I do), take a look and see what your experience has been. I have played for more than 10 years, and I have saved the last several hundred cards ( shoes) to actually examine this "myth" and here I have just looked back at the cards in my possession and think I have found an exploitable advantage... Here are my actual results: 1) Note: TIES do-not-count as an interruption to the progression ( i.e - 2B in a row, then a T, then another B = 3 Bankers in a row) 2) 3-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) = 52.2% 4-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) =54.9% 5-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side ( B or P) = 56.7% 6-or-more-in-a-row, then 1 on the opposite side, then back to the original ("strong") side (B or P) = 59.4% 3) After 6-in-a-row or more, the % did not seem to be changed much...probably due to the infrequency/low sample size of > 6-in-a-row?? _______________________________________________________________________________________ Sooooooo, does anyone out there in the FORUM have a bunch of live-casino cards they could look at to see what their experience has been?? I was very excited to see this myself, and I am anxious to see if this is an exploitable advantage we can use or not? I know it does not seem possible, and in many shoes it does not play out this way, but take a look yourself and let us all know what you have experienced...Remember I do not count the TIES in a progression...ALSO, I HAVE NOT INCLUDED MULTIPLE OCCURRENCES ON A SINGLE SIDE AT THE END OF A SHOE... Call me or email if questions... kachatz1 kachatz@treomanagement.com 850-687-3128

Hello, my friends... Before you start to read this thread, I suggest you "google" the words "1 is the lonliest number 3 Dog Night", and you'll be in the mood for what I am about to say... I must admit this is my first real post to start a thread in this FORUM, but I am a long-time Bac player and I think I have a lot to add, albeit requiring you to put your thinking-cap in place. What I am about to write about is not a PROVEN COMMODITY, and will be most meaningful to those of you who have saved 100's of actual played shoe results like I have... That said, I am looking for your comments... My "research" consists of cards I have saved since 2002 , played in Canada, Reno,Milwaukee, Macau, Vegas, Biloxi, etc...I only have kept the last several hundred, but have played many more over the last 10 years... _______________________________________________________________________________- So, here goes: The other day, I was playing in Biloxi, MS. and it seemed to me that 3-in-a-row, 4-in-a-row, 5-in-a-row, etc on either PLAYER or BANKER was most likely to occur after a single event of "1-in-a-row" on the opposite side. Got me to thinking so much, that when I got home, I went back to my 300+ cards saved from playing all-over-the-place, and I calculated the following: IN MY CARD SAMPLING, , ANYTHING EQUAL TO OR MORE THAN 3-in-a row occurred 53.7 % of the time after a 1-in-a row on the opposite side... In other words, in only 46.3% of the cases did a 3-in-a-row, 4-in-a-row,5-in-a-row OR MORE on either the PLAYER OR BANKER side occur after anything other than a 1-in-a-row on the opposite side...( NOTE: A TIE DOES NOT COUNT AS AN INTERRUPTION TO THE PROGRESSION) Yes, I find this very hard to believe myself!! All of my cards are live games, no internet shoes. 1) This goes against everything about the "averages" of BACCARAT ( how many times a shift will occur after 1-in-a-row, 2-in-a-row, etc.) . And by the way, those #'s posted by Ellis are correct... 2) This hardly seemed possible, so I rechecked my figures again and again. I kept thinking maybe my sample size is inadequate, but figuring 75-80 hands per shoe, that's over 22,000 hands played. 3) Just like you would expect, in some shoes, this was way off, while in others the advantage was as much as 8-to-1! __________________________________________________________________________________________________ So my question is this: Can enough of us look at our old shoes ( actually played) to see if my experience is a fluke?? Most, important, Is this an exploitable advantage? In other words, can we make money from this? Would it help to influence your bet progressions, no matter what strategy you were using? Frankly, I do not know the answer... ____________________________________________________________________________________________ If you think this is radical, wait until you see my next post about what I have observed happens after a 3-in-a-row, 4-in-a-row, 5-in-a-row, etc...it is even more thought-provoking... _____________________________________________________________________________ Thanks to all for their insight and response. I am anxious to hear your comments. Email me or call me. kachatz1 kachatz@treomanagement.com 850-687-3128

Hello, everyone. i just joined the member private forum about 10 days ago, but have been playing Baccarat for years. I met with another Forum private member several days ago, and he was very gracious to help explain some of the concepts employed by BTC members, and after our meeting I went down to the Casino and played four shoes with a renewed sense of confidence and understanding! --Tonight, he directed me to Mreteuya's thread and I can really understand the value in this stuff! I, too play only to win $$, and average about 10 shoes a week in live casinos. This stuff is great, and it is "for real"...I am still learning the acronyms used for the various betting strategies and progressions, but my favorite one of all time is CASH ( no acronym needed) Thanks and keep up the great reporting!

I just picked up on this site a few days ago, and I am very excited to become a member...do you offer a credit card payment option other than paypal?