S40A Manual Q&A

[Guest]

Please post your S40A Manual questions and comments here.

[muling427]

So S40A combines the best of all worlds:

S40 is the best Chop system in the world but also handles Streak.

F2 is the best Streak system in the world but can handle Chop.

OTB4L is the best Neutral system and can outperform in Neutral .

And RD1 is the best Streak system in a severe shortage of 1’s.

(We call that last shoe type runs following runs.)

The key to winning the most units possible with the S40A approach is to match the right system to the right shoe. This is accomplished by the simple OR count.

But it is possible and relatively easy to predict the OR count through casino savvy:

What does the card prep usually produce at this casino?

What were the prior shoes favoring - chop or streak?

Are the blue and red shoes playing the same or differently?

How old are the cards?

(New cards are generally more consistent than old cards.)

Are the players at this table generally winning or losing?

(If losing, we can expect the shoe type to remain the same. But, if winning, we can expect the shoe type to change.)

Do all casinos in the world use card prep and how to check them ?

In the casinos I know in Europe they hand shuffle between each shoe and the way they do it, I don't understand how the previous shoe can have any influence on the next one!

If I start a shoe without knowing anything about the trend,I think I have to wait some hands to "feel" this shoe, applying O/R and SAP.Or maybe just flat betting.

Could you , please summarize which system to use with wich O/R and SAP count and when to stop and change system. I think, as you say, it is what makes the winner from the loser.

But it is also the most difficult notion to understand. Thank you

[Goong]

Could you , please summarize which system to use with wich O/R and SAP count and when to stop and change system. I think, as you say, it is what makes the winner from the loser.

But it is also the most difficult notion to understand. Thank you

This is an excellent question and one I too would be happy to see the answer

Also in reading through the myriad of posts I got the message that you were now separating SAP for player and banker.

Would someone mind explaining this a little?

Also is there a bank of shoes somewhere with the correct O/R and SAP count so it can be practiced and checked?

Some of this is coming back to me (the frustration included)...slowly. Could someone also tell me the progression we are using 12345, 23456, 345?

Also, when do you consider LC appearing? Is it after first SAP event or after 4 SAP events?

On top of this Im not sure how to apply this now we have separated SAP on P/B sides. It seems possible, in fact probable you will have different LC on both sides (which I guess is the reason for it) but how to apply?

What happened to maverick?

Edited November 4, 2010 by Goong

[ECD]

In the casinos I know in Europe they hand shuffle between each shoe and the way they do it, I don't understand how the previous shoe can have any influence on the next one!

Because it was the result of the same shuffle. Perhaps my reply of just two days ago is relevant here:

Default Re: O/R count

QUESTION:

Quote Originally Posted by Frank77 View Post

What is the relevance of the O/R count. If you are starting a new shoe whatever happened to the last shoe would have no relevance to what will happen to the new shoe. If I understand correctly you wait for the first bet and then place your first bet opposite and play opposites until you have an LC and use the LC when it applies, so where does the O/R come into it ?

ANSWER:

The OR count is a precise count of chop vs streak or, to be more precise, opposites vs repeats.

First, with a little more study you will see that there ARE such things as streaky tables and choppy tables; Streaky shoe colors and choppy shoe colors; Streaky new card preps and choppy new card preps. Streaky hand shuffles and choppy hand shuffles; streaky machine settings and choppy machine settings. No 3 shuffle routine can randomize 8 decks of cards. It would require 7 shuffles to the 8th power to randomize 8 decks of cards. This would take days.

If the cards were random, Basic Strategy alone would beat BJ and there would be no casinos. They use the same shuffle techniques and the same machines in Bac. In Bac, if the cards were random, casino Bac profits would be limited to commission and casinos could not afford to deal Baccarat. But, as is, Bac is the highest profit maker for casinos of all table games by a mile.

For instance: in BJ, Basic Strategy wins 43% of the hands overall and the casino drop retention is 15%.

In Baccarat, a 50/50 game, casino profits went from 3% of the drop in the'90s to 26% of the drop today. Casinos could not achieve a 900% increase in profits if the cards were random. Their per capita profits would be stagnate.

A choppy table can remain choppy all day and a streaky table can remain streaky. This would be impossible with random cards.

30 years of profitable play and hundreds of thousands of shoes have clearly demonstrated that Baccarat is not random. If it were, Baccarat would be impossible to beat and all Baccarat players would be purely stupid.

That is what "random" means. Synonyms would be "unpredictable" or "unbeatable".

Yet, players right here have CLEARLY demonstrated time and again that Baccarat is clearly beatable.

The OR count tells us if the shoe at hand is streaky, choppy, or neutral.

S40 beats chop (+ OR count) hands down.

F2 beats streak (- OR count) hands down.

That fact is the basis of the S40A approach.

To that we add OTB4L which beats Neutral hands down.

And we add RD1 which beats a shortage of 1's.

So, the OR count is your basis of system selection.

The SAP count identifies the LC event.

We employ both.

The counts are consistent in about 90% of shoes.

They are inconsistent in about 10% of shoes.

Therefore once you have mastered the entire S40A technology you can enjoy about a 90% overall win rate just as we did on the Hollywood trip.

And once you have mastered LC technology your winning shoe avg will be far more than your losing shoe avg just as demonstrated on the Hollywood trip. The Hollywood trip was just ONE of hundreds of public Baccarat exhibitions.

So to answer your question directly, SAP tells you how to apply sys 40. OR tells you which system to play.

Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 11-02-2010 at 05:55 AM.

Edited November 4, 2010 by ECD

[ECD]

OK, lets talk about card preps:

All casinos in the world buy their cards from the factory one of two ways:

1.) In 8 deck factory preshuffled shoes:

Not many casinos do this because factory preshuffled cards often produce ridiculously choppy shoes. The center isle of 8 tables at Gold Coast, L.V. for instance, uses factory preshuffled cards and lets the players handle the cards. The wall isle at G.C. uses regular cards. At least one casino in Australia also uses preshuffled shoes and we also got extreme chop reports from that casino. I think B.P. (on line) also experimented with them for a while.

2.) Single deck boxed card order:

Most casinos buy their cards this way and use the same cards all day. Therefore, they must have a morning card prep when they take the 8 decks out of individual boxes and go through their card prep routine. They consider this so important that they have a person in charge of the morning card prep. They zero in on the card prep that produces the highest month end bottom line. Most casinos, but not all, use a card prep that produces Neutral (runless) shoes because all players and all systems lose to that type of shoe EXCEPT our OTB4L. That is why we included OTB4L under the 40A umbrella.

When I played full time I used to study morning card preps and I could tell you what a BJ or Bac card prep would produce But that is NOT what I'm trying to teach you here.

Casinos keep the same exact morning card prep for long periods, usually months and sometimes years. What I AM trying to teach you is to note what kind of shoe a given casinos current card prep produces because it is usually consistent with new cards day after day.

For instance: I knew that the morning card prep at Tunica MS produced mostly neutral shoes. Those that weren't completely neurtal slightly favored chop. So I knew exactly what to play for the first 3 shoes at every table.

Recognize that most casinos do not open all their tables at the same time. So, by the time I played the first 3 shoes at one table, another was due to open with brand new cards. So I could play all morning and most of the afternoon sticking only to cards that were 3 or less shoes old. So I played OTB4L going on ZZ runs sooner than on straight runs. This is no small advantage. I used this same exact trick to win nearly every shoe I played for 3 years, losing my comp priviliges in the process. At night I played BJ.

Do you get it now?

But that is not the only way to have a good idea of the shoe type coming up. Read my questions again that I posted under Casino savvy.

Now at Hollywood, Keith already knew that their morning card prep produced chop. So we started both days playing S40 against brand new cards. After that we simply watched for the worm to turn. What was the red shoe doing and what was the blue shoe doing? If you examine our shoes you will see that we started every shoe very early and we almost always started with the right system right off the bat. We only had to "adjust" in one or two shoes. THAT is what I mean by casino savvy.

Unfortunately, in home practice, you get used to having no idea of what the next shoe will be like. But don't take that handicap to the casino with you. In the casino, you MUST take off your home practice hat and put on your Pro Player hat and take advantage of the information surrounding you.

Are you catching my drift now? It pays to know!

[ECD]

Most, but not all of our system and prog names stand for something so its easy to remember which system is which and which prog is which. For instance:

F2 stands for Follow the 2.

RD1 stands for Repeats except bet Down after a 1.

OTB4L stands for Opposite the Time B4 Last

System 40 doesn't stand for anything. If I had it to do over again I would probably call it OLC for bet Opposites except under the LC event. Too late now.

OK, S40A includes 4 base systems: 40, F2, RD1 and OTB4L but mostly 40 and F2.

Except for the few dead even shoes Half of all shoes favor chop (+OR count) The SAP chart usually shows high 1's and 2s and sometimes 3s.

40 is our only chop system because 40 beats ALL chop favorable shoes. It beats all 1's and 2s and 3s.

Except when we make 2s culprit. Only players who ONLY know 40 would make twos culprit . Why? Because 40 with 2s culprit is exactly the same thing as TB4L. In streaky shoes, S40A players are better off going to F2 or occasionally RD1 because both are better streak systems that TB4L. That is why we did NOT include TB4L under the S40A umbrella.

Half of all shoes favor Streak!

F2 is our main Streak system (- OR count) (SAP usually favors 2 or mores) But F2 doesn't particularly like 2's because its losing pattern is a 2 on the wrong side followed by a 1,2. The more 2s you have the more likely you are to hit the losing pattern. BUT F2 LOVES 1's of all kinds either sporadic or ZZ while RD1 loves twos but hates 1's.

So RD1 becomes our choice in streaky shoes with very low 1's but high twos.

So while the OR count is our MAIN way of selecting the right system, SAP plays an important role because it tells us what events are high or low in the shoe at hand.

But the main purpose of SAP is to identify LC for S40 and for OTB4L. LC is what gives BOTH of these systems an overall mathematical advantage. By overall I mean in all shoes. All other systems, including F2 and RD1 only achieve an advantage in Streak. That is why they are our streak Systems. LC is the ONLY way of achieving an overall mathematical advantage in Baccarat.

BTW no one else knows of or uses LC technology. That is why they can't come up with a mathematically winning approach to Baccarat.

OTB4L is our Neutral system. The OR count is hovering 0 and not going very far in either direction + or -. We want, and usually have, high twos. Recognize that in a two, the first circle is +1 and the second circles is -1, neutralizing the OR count. OTB4L loves SINGLE ones, ALL twos and 3s. It LOVES TT runs, winning every bet. It hates 4 or mores either straight or ZZ but does have a defense for them.

So, by selecting the right system of just those four you can beat ANY shoe except possibly the ten percent that completely change horses mid shoe.

So, when do we change systems mid shoe? Only when our counts tell us to. A + faorable count goes - favorable or the reverse. What we DON'T do is change systems for every short lived whim of a shoe. What is the OVERALL OR count telling us? Chop, Streak, or Neutral. That way you can never go too far wrong, esp with a capped prog like 345. BUT, when you do, we have our cash Mgt to save our ass.

Perhaps you are beginning to see why I keep saying, let me say it for the Zillionth time, the FIRST thing we do in a casino is find the CHOPPIEST or the STREAKIEST table in the casino. THAT makes life so much easier.

Edited November 4, 2010 by ECD

[punvit]

Because it was the result of the same shuffle. Perhaps my reply of just two days ago is relevant here:

Default Re: O/R count

QUESTION:

Quote Originally Posted by Frank77 View Post

What is the relevance of the O/R count. If you are starting a new shoe whatever happened to the last shoe would have no relevance to what will happen to the new shoe. If I understand correctly you wait for the first bet and then place your first bet opposite and play opposites until you have an LC and use the LC when it applies, so where does the O/R come into it ?

ANSWER:

The OR count is a precise count of chop vs streak or, to be more precise, opposites vs repeats.

First, with a little more study you will see that there ARE such things as streaky tables and choppy tables; Streaky shoe colors and choppy shoe colors; Streaky new card preps and choppy new card preps. Streaky hand shuffles and choppy hand shuffles; streaky machine settings and choppy machine settings. No 3 shuffle routine can randomize 8 decks of cards. It would require 7 shuffles to the 8th power to randomize 8 decks of cards. This would take days.

If the cards were random, Basic Strategy alone would beat BJ and there would be no casinos. They use the same shuffle techniques and the same machines in Bac. In Bac, if the cards were random, casino Bac profits would be limited to commission and casinos could not afford to deal Baccarat. But, as is, Bac is the highest profit maker for casinos of all table games by a mile.

For instance: in BJ, Basic Strategy wins 43% of the hands overall and the casino drop retention is 15%.

In Baccarat, a 50/50 game, casino profits went from 3% of the drop in the'90s to 26% of the drop today. Casinos could not achieve a 900% increase in profits if the cards were random. Their per capita profits would be stagnate.

A choppy table can remain choppy all day and a streaky table can remain streaky. This would be impossible with random cards.

30 years of profitable play and hundreds of thousands of shoes have clearly demonstrated that Baccarat is not random. If it were, Baccarat would be impossible to beat and all Baccarat players would be purely stupid.

That is what "random" means. Synonyms would be "unpredictable" or "unbeatable".

Yet, players right here have CLEARLY demonstrated time and again that Baccarat is clearly beatable.

The OR count tells us if the shoe at hand is streaky, choppy, or neutral.

S40 beats chop (+ OR count) hands down.

F2 beats streak (- OR count) hands down.

That fact is the basis of the S40A approach.

To that we add OTB4L which beats Neutral hands down.

And we add RD1 which beats a shortage of 1's.

So, the OR count is your basis of system selection.

The SAP count identifies the LC event.

We employ both.

The counts are consistent in about 90% of shoes.

They are inconsistent in about 10% of shoes.

Therefore once you have mastered the entire S40A technology you can enjoy about a 90% overall win rate just as we did on the Hollywood trip.

And once you have mastered LC technology your winning shoe avg will be far more than your losing shoe avg just as demonstrated on the Hollywood trip. The Hollywood trip was just ONE of hundreds of public Baccarat exhibitions.

So to answer your question directly, SAP tells you how to apply sys 40. OR tells you which system to play.

Last edited by E. Clifton Davis; 11-02-2010 at 05:55 AM.

Hi Ellis, the casino that I usually go to, they use new cards and hand-shuffled in every new shoe at all the MIDI tables. I have noticed that every shoe has produced difference outcome every time, no matter what "color" the card is (red or blue). Some are streaky and some are choppy. So, I cannot really tell which table or color is choppy or streaky until the shoe is start playing.

One good friend of mine is a long-time baccarat dealer at a 5 stars casino in Las Vegas. He is working in both low limit (out side tables) and in high-limit room, which he has seen some players bet up to $100,000 per hand with special chips ($25,000 chip). He is also love to play baccarat on his day-offs. I play with him sometimes at different casinos. He told me about the MIDI and BIG TABLES in the high-limit room. They use an 8 decks new cards with hand-shuffled in every new shoe and the dealers have nothing to do with the cards. I am not trying to against your theory, but this is what he told me. And I found no reasons for him to lie to me. He is also trying to win this game with some methods or systems like most of us. Any comment, anyone?

Edited November 5, 2010 by punvit

[muling427]

Thank for your answer. But what does the card prep consist in ? Do you have to be there to watch it and How to know the right schedule ? Or is there a way to check it anytime time you arrive in the casino ?

[ECD]

Hi Ellis, the casino that I usually go to, they use new cards and hand-shuffled in every new shoe at all the MIDI tables. I have noticed that every shoe has produced difference outcome every time, no matter what "color" the card is (red or blue). Some are streaky and some are choppy. So, I cannot really tell which table or color is choppy or streaky until the shoe is start playing.

One good friend of mine is a long-time baccarat dealer at a 5 stars casino in Las Vegas. He is working in both low limit (out side tables) and in high-limit room, which he has seen some players bet up to $100,000 per hand with special chips ($25,000 chip). He is also love to play baccarat on his day-offs. I play with him sometimes at different casinos. He told me about the MIDI and BIG TABLES in the high-limit room. They use an 8 decks new cards with hand-shuffled in every new shoe and the dealers have nothing to do with the cards. I am not trying to against your theory, but this is what he told me. And I found no reasons for him to lie to me. He is also trying to win this game with some methods or systems like most of us. Any comment, anyone?

No problem. Those are the same old conditions I learned under in AC. New cards every shoe. But before we get into discussion I need to know if the new cards come out in 8 boxes or one box.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the dealer has any influence. He is just following orders.

It may be that you can only go by the shoe at hand. You don't always have a better clue. Remember that at Hollywood there was only one table. But we still did very well.

[ECD]

Thank for your answer. But what does the card prep consist in ? Do you have to be there to watch it and How to know the right schedule ? Or is there a way to check it anytime time you arrive in the casino ?

No, you don't need to be there. I don't want to get into teaching card preps. What you want to know is this: Does the card prep procedure used, regardless of exactly what it is, produce a consistent shoe type with new cards, or not?

[punvit]

No problem. Those are the same old conditions I learned under in AC. New cards every shoe. But before we get into discussion I need to know if the new cards come out in 8 boxes or one box.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying the dealer has any influence. He is just following orders.

It may be that you can only go by the shoe at hand. You don't always have a better clue. Remember that at Hollywood there was only one table. But we still did very well.

Hi Ellis, the cards come in one box and hand-shuffled on the tables in front of players before put in the deck for play. From what my friend told me, they have nothing to do with changing the randomness of the cards or have "orders" from anyone.

For me, it doesn't matter. When I play, I just wait for a few hands to be dealt and choose the right system to start with it. And just keep on O/R count to locate the L/C along the way. If, it is not smooth or it is going agaist my ways, I will simply find another table. I do prefer to play with choppy shoes, because they are easy to beat with S40. But, if I cannot find a choppy shoe, I will choose the least streaky shoe I can find and deal with it, by using S40A.

Edited November 5, 2010 by punvit

[muling427]

No, you don't need to be there. I don't want to get into teaching card preps. What you want to know is this: Does the card prep procedure used, regardless of exactly what it is, produce a consistent shoe type with new cards, or not?

Ellis I trust you because you said so ! I just want to know how you can know the shoe type produced by the card prep when you arrive in the casino at any time.

[ECD]

Ellis I trust you because you said so ! I just want to know how you can know the shoe type produced by the card prep when you arrive in the casino at any time.

Again, because the casino doesn't change the card prep daily. They keep the SAME card prep until it no longer produces the most profitable results, often for months, sometimes years.

Take a couple days of observation. Does the card prep used produce the same new cards condition each day or not.

Casinos have many standard shuffles. Each produce a desired result. The dealer is told which shuffle to use.

What you are looking for is any clue, any consistency.

If the cards come in one box they are either factory preshuffled or casino preshuffled before they arrive at the table. Most casinos buy their cards in individual single deck sealed boxes and the cards are in boxed card order. Your casino either buys their cards in 8 deck preshuffled boxes from the factory or they preshuffle them away from the table and out of sight.

[ECD]

Recognize that the morning card prep and the between shoe shuffle are two entirely different things.

[muling427]

Again, because the casino doesn't change the card prep daily. They keep the SAME card prep until it no longer produces the most profitable results, often for months, sometimes years.

Take a couple days of observation. Does the card prep used produce the same new cards condition each day or not.

Casinos have many standard shuffles. Each produce a desired result. The dealer is told which shuffle to use.

What you are looking for is any clue, any consistency.

If the cards come in one box they are either factory preshuffled or casino preshuffled before they arrive at the table. Most casinos buy their cards in individual single deck sealed boxes and the cards are in boxed card order. Your casino either buys their cards in 8 deck preshuffled boxes from the factory or they preshuffle them away from the table and out of sight.

It seems quite complicated and needs a lot of experience. For the moment , I prefer to focus on playing each shoes separately and follow its trend . Maybe after sometimes I'll be able to feel the table trend.

[ECD]

It seems quite complicated and needs a lot of experience. For the moment , I prefer to focus on playing each shoes separately and follow its trend . Maybe after sometimes I'll be able to feel the table trend.

That sounds like the best idea for the moment. I forget that not everyone has 20,000 hours casino experience.

[ECD]

For the sharpies:

Standing back and taking a fresh look at S40A it seems to me that about the only thing that can go wrong is that if we happen to be in F2 mode and we hit the 212s on the wrong side.

The 40 mode beats the 212s soundly.

The RD1 mode beats the 212s OK by betting down under a 1,2, which is the purpose of that rule.

But F2 KILLS the 212s if the initial 2 is on the side you are betting.

So, it seems to me that F2 needs to have some overriding rule that always puts you on the side of the 2s in a 212 run. The old F2 rule did that but the new F2 rule can miss the 212s if they happen to occur on the wrong side.

I'm thinking this way: In a good F2 shoe we don't change sides very often. Therefore it seems to me that when we do switch sides our first bet on the new side is usually a low percentage bet. Therefore, why not go back to the initial bet of our prog? Then if we lose that first low bet on the new side we wait and see. Is the shoe going to the 212s or the 22s? See if it goes to the only other possibility, the 2,3s we win our first bet on the new side so that possibility is already covered.

What do you guys think?

About the only other thing that can go wrong is if we hit straight runs following straight runs in 40 mode and those runs happen to be the wrong length. I'm thinking that particular scenario calls for an automatic switch to RD1 which loves runs following runs.

I realize we can't head off everything that can go wrong but we CAN react to the obvious misadventures.

Edited November 6, 2010 by ECD

[muling427]

it is what I found on the forum for OTB4L . Can I apply this rules with S40. Or is there any modifications?

OK, now, how do you play this OTB4L?

First I THINK that we can dispense with the 0 and or the 00 start. With OTB4L the 0 starts only help us when the shoe Starts with an early run. And an early run is going to kick us out of neutral anyway. If we had intended to play OTB4L against new cards I would take an early run as a sign of things to come and switch to SAP until the shoe proved differently.

Played as an indepedent system, OTB4L is simple. You bet on Op after a repeat and on repeat after an Op. You are basically betting a TT pattern. That works out exactly opposite the age old TB4L system. You wait for 2 plays to start the shoe because it takes 2 plays to develop the first Op or the first Rep. You bet a 123 prog up one when you lose and back to 1 when you win.

Now played that way your 3 bet will always be against a straight run that has already gone 4 or a zz run that has already gone 3. The straight run is obvious but an example of the ZZ would be a 2113 pattern. Your 3 bet would hit the middle circle of the 3 if you do it right.

That's the way I played my 1 and 2 bets but my 3, I always played according to what the last 3 against a straight run did or my last 3 against an Op run did. Starting the shoe I stuck with the above rules, Ops after reps and reps after Ops but once I had bet a 3 against Ops the next 3 against Ops I bet according to what would have won on my last 3 against Ops and bet On or Against the Op run accordingly. The same with straight runs, As it turned out for me I ended up betting my 3 on the Op runs but against the straight runs. If the run continues through your 3 bet you bet 1 on the run until it ends then back to normal betting. If your 3 bet ended the run you go right back to normal betting. Try it a time or two referring to these rules. I'm sure you'll pick it right up. It's one of those things thats a lot harder to say than to do.

Again, let's keep this thread clear of questions and save it for sample games. I'll start a new OTB4L questions thread.

I'll also put up a sample of how to play the more aggressive U1D1. It is played exactly the same way except we don't go back to 1 on a win. We go 1 down instead.

Recognize that OTB4L is NOT a net bet system. ALL bets are unopposed.

[ECD]

That is an excellent way to play OTB4L. The only improvement you might make that will only help slightly is to go OTR on both straight and ZZ runs according to LC on your double SAP chart.

Recognize that the original rules for OTB4L were as a stand alone system. Under the S40A umbrella we are only playing OTB4L under its BEST condition which is when we have a neutral OR count hovering 0 (a runless shoe). Therefore I agree that the 0 or 00 starts are not warranted

A plus OT count defines OTB4L conditions even better. The higher the + OT count, the better. The OT count is +1 for an OTB4L circle and -1 for a TB4L circle. Recognize that EVERY circle is either OTB4L or TB4L.

Do not sell this system short. It DOES have a mathematical advantage when LC technology is applied. It is a great stand alone system but even greater when S40A points you to OTB4L.

I won every OTB4L session for 3 years at Tunica playing new cards. (Within 3 shoes of the morning card prep.) It is often an excellent new cards system. That is why I felt we MUST include it with the S40A approach. It covers the neutral OR count territory very well.

Edited November 6, 2010 by ECD

[punvit]

For the sharpies:

Standing back and taking a fresh look at S40A it seems to me that about the only thing that can go wrong is that if we happen to be in F2 mode and we hit the 212s on the wrong side.

The 40 mode beats the 212s soundly.

The RD1 mode beats the 212s OK by betting down under a 1,2, which is the purpose of that rule.

But F2 KILLS the 212s if the initial 2 is on the side you are betting.

So, it seems to me that F2 needs to have some overriding rule that always puts you on the side of the 2s in a 212 run. The old F2 rule did that but the new F2 rule can miss the 212s if they happen to occur on the wrong side.

I'm thinking this way: In a good F2 shoe we don't change sides very often. Therefore it seems to me that when we do switch sides our first bet on the new side is usually a low percentage bet. Therefore, why not go back to the initial bet of our prog? Then if we lose that first low bet on the new side we wait and see. Is the shoe going to the 212s or the 22s? See if it goes to the only other possibility, the 2,3s we win our first bet on the new side so that possibility is already covered.

What do you guys think?

About the only other thing that can go wrong is if we hit straight runs following straight runs in 40 mode and those runs happen to be the wrong length. I'm thinking that particular scenario calls for an automatic switch to RD1 which loves runs following runs.

I realize we can't head off everything that can go wrong but we CAN react to the obvious misadventures.

Post was cancelled.

Edited November 7, 2010 by punvit

[muling427]

"That is an excellent way to play OTB4L. The only improvement you might make that will only help slightly is to go OTR on both straight and ZZ runs according to LC on your double SAP chart."

Please Ellis can you explain. Should one use double SAP chart ?

[ECD]

"That is an excellent way to play OTB4L. The only improvement you might make that will only help slightly is to go OTR on both straight and ZZ runs according to LC on your double SAP chart."

Please Ellis can you explain. Should one use double SAP chart ?

Theoretically yes. But is the extra tracking worth it? That is a tough question. I play it just as you say and W/O SAP.

It pays to do a neat job on your score card. You can mark your straight runs with a vertical red line in the margin and a ZZ line for your ZZ runs noting their length. To my way of thinking, this is just as accurate as an SAP chart and less cumbersome. Note on the Hollywood cards that I did not bother filling in an SAP chart. But I always knew what was LC. When its so close you can't tell by looking, its too close to make any difference anyway.

An SAP chart is much like training wheels. At some point you don't need them anymore. They can be replaced by simple observation once you fully understand the principle. Just recognize that you must look at straight and ZZ run history separately when playing OTB4L.

For instance, with new cards at Gold Strike, I quickly learned that long ZZ runs were more frequent than long straight runs. Therefore, I only stayed on straight runs for one play but I learned to usually stay on ZZ runs until I lost.

It pays to develop your powers of observation in Baccarat. In a way, SAP charts can be counterproductive to that purpose. But they do make good training wheels. Everyone must start someplace.

[ECD]

Under the heading of Powers of observation:

Eventually I want you to have the experience to look at a toteboard without breaking stride from an isle away and know what system to play:

Mostly opposites = 40

Mostly repeats = F2

A lack of 1's = RD1

A lack of runs, straight or ZZ = OTB4L

This is not rocket science. So does that mean you run right over and grab a seat? No, unless the casino has only one table. You want the MOST biased table. With a little experience you should be able to find that table within 5 minutes of walking into the casino. But if you already know what the card prep produces at that casino.... well that is why I always start first thing in the morning right after the morning card prep. It pays to get up early. When I start, usually the only people there are stragglers from the night before. They are weary, exhausted, and merely going through the motions. I am fresh and highly alert to what is going on. Who is going to do better?

[Rinaldoco]

otb4l, can someone tell me in a simple way what that system is?

thanks,

Rinaldo

[punvit]

otb4l, can someone tell me in a simple way what that system is?

thanks,

Rinaldo

OTB4L means opposite time before last. When you see P B bet B or BB bet P and so on.

Edited November 9, 2010 by punvit