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Hey guys - probably a basic question - but still learning.. 2 questions actually

If you are betting 023 is the 0 simply NO BET?? I keep getting confused on this. I've seen the 0 mentioned on a few posts, but figured I'd read the manual, do some practice shoes before I asked. Hoping I would have figured it out! I didn't :)

Next - if you are progressing, say 345 - what do you do if you lose on the 5? Do you go back to 3?

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it is what I found on the forum for OTB4L . Can I apply this rules with S40. Or is there any modifications? OK, now, how do you play this OTB4L? First I THINK that we can dispense with the 0 and or t

Davem.........the 0 bet is just that. That would be used as an example if you keep losing the first bet of your progression you'd bet 0 there. With 3,4,5..the next bet is 3.

Hey guys - probably a basic question - but still learning.. 2 questions actually

If you are betting 023 is the 0 simply NO BET?? I keep getting confused on this. I've seen the 0 mentioned on a few posts, but figured I'd read the manual, do some practice shoes before I asked. Hoping I would have figured it out! I didn't :)

Next - if you are progressing, say 345 - what do you do if you lose on the 5? Do you go back to 3?

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Ok Guys.. .COuple more questions / ideas.

I am getting fairly good at OR count. And I understand the progression.

What I am having a hard time with his figuring out the LC / MC etc... Anyway Ellis, you could do a vidoe showing a blank scorecard - and go play by play and walk through it? I think it would be very beneficial to all -and it may save you alot of repeat questions... I am just having a hard time "getting" that part of it.

Lastly - is there a forum post that explains more in depth the OTB4L when it's hovering zero?

Thanks guys - any chance of a video - would be AWESOME...

David

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patrickeregan

I would also like to see more on the LC and MC. I was looking at another shoe sample and it the culprit was 2. I thought you would chose 4 for the culbrit until the SAP chart shows a lower value as you play. Or did I get that all wrong.

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I would also like to see more on the LC and MC. I was looking at another shoe sample and it the culprit was 2. I thought you would chose 4 for the culbrit until the SAP chart shows a lower value as you play. Or did I get that all wrong.

No, Pat, you didn't get that wrong. I usually play 4 as LC until a 4 appears. Then I recheck. That way you beat all 1's, 2s and 3s until a 4 appears and those are 87% of all events. But sometimes you have other information like a - OR count or a table history of low 2's. Here you would make 2s culprit early because as soon as you make 2s culprit S40 becomes a streak system. You are essentially playing TB4L, a strong streak system.

Your other option is to switch to F2 but we were seeing large chop sections in streaky shoes (and Vice versa).

This is why it pays to be highly alert at all times while playing. The shoe is constantly feeding you information IF you only listen to it. With experience this miryiod information begins to make sense to you.

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Ok Guys.. .COuple more questions / ideas.

I am getting fairly good at OR count. And I understand the progression.

What I am having a hard time with his figuring out the LC / MC etc... Anyway Ellis, you could do a vidoe showing a blank scorecard - and go play by play and walk through it? I think it would be very beneficial to all -and it may save you alot of repeat questions... I am just having a hard time "getting" that part of it.

Lastly - is there a forum post that explains more in depth the OTB4L when it's hovering zero?

Thanks guys - any chance of a video - would be AWESOME...

David

Well David, Keith and I were discussing what kind of interest you guys might have in a weekend training seminar where we could cover these and all basics in flip chart sessions where you actually see how all these things work in the context of shoe examples.

We used to do these frequently in BJ and always had excellent turnouts as well as excellent reviews from the participants.

Many of you have PMed me about not being able to get by the basics. Yet all this stuff becomes extremely simple once you have seen actual examples.

SAP charting, for example, is as simple as pie once you have seen it demonstrated. Also, such seminars are great for questions and answers. We discuss whatever aspects the participants want to discuss.

We can also film these seminars making them a permanent record.

SAP charting is fully explained SOMEWHERE on our forum but even I would have a tough time finding it at this point.

But SAP charting is the simplest thing in the world once you've seen it demonstrated and once you see first hand WHY we do it.

We could do such a training seminar in a casino town where you could try out what you learned that day. But its just as good or maybe even better to do one in a NON casino town where we could have coffee cup discussions at night.

Come to think of it. Mark E. learned most of what he knows at an impromtu meeting a bunch of us had in somebody's room during the group Vegas trip. He learned more in that 2 hour meeting than he did on our whole forum put together. I think THAT is what gave him the idea of one on one training. He saw first hand how well such sessions go.

Now recognize that it wouldn't be cheap. But it would be a whole lot cheaper than what the average player loses every day he steps into a casino W/O such training. We used to charge $400 per head which included your room and most of your meals.

Maybe we should start a thread devoted to this subject so we can see just how much enthusiasm there would be for such an event. We used to get anywhere from 30 to 60 people at such training weekends. We did one in the Bahamas with 48 attendees. 6 days 7 nights. Of course that one was more than $400 but we stayed right on the beach and played team BJ every night and everyone came away a winner.

One of the guys was a wheel chaired war vet. He died a year later and I got a long letter from his wife. She said it was the best days of his life and he talked about nothing else for a year afterward.

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Guys, I don't know which shoes Keith may have posted yet but there is one that I would like you to pay close attention to. This was late in the trip and I got a shoe very strong sided Player. I played F3 with a simple 123 Quarters. I got to my +10 before Bank ever had a three in a row so I was on player the WHOLE time. NO COMMISSION!

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BTW, I met Jersey Slim in the flesh as well as Tess and her husband and others. All these folks are just as nice in the flesh as they seem on the forum. At one point Tess or somebody asked me why I was on Bank when the whole table was on Player? All I could reply was "Cocaine is a hell of a drug!"

BTW, Bank won!

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Baccarat A

"If this is too much for you, I'll also be covering OTB4L which is another great way to handle Neutral shoes and far simpler" This is from pg 10 of the manual, but is not covered and I have not been able to find the OTB4L manual on the site. Having not played it in a long time, I don't remember when to go otr (3 losses in a row?) and when to go back to OTB4L. A brief summary of the system would be helpful.

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Hi Ellis,

I have been anxiously waiting to hear how your weekend in PA went. Could someone who was there give us some results? I have also been waiting for a manual of System 40A. I figured you would be posting that after this last trip. I do not need to come to a group meeting. All I need is the manual. Your manuals are so well written that even I can understand them.

res

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Well I am interested in live training! Schedule gets tight but can make it happen.. I think the "home study" course with videos really demonstrating everything would be suffice though. Not that I won't travel.. name the place and time..

I have played bac for years (off and on) but sometimes just seeing it step by step live or on video is a whole lot easier.

I actually teach a different type of way of making an income and have a pretty big website. I have literally have 50 + training videos (not that you need that many) But 8 - 10 minutes long (as that's when humans stop paying attention) and I go from square 1 and walk through all the basics and build it up.

Now, your manual is great - and what I teach is far more different than what you teach, so please don't take that as disrespect. In fact I am enamored by what you do and how you prove it over and over... I just need to visualize it :)

So that's my input on the live training or video tutorials - i am game -either way!

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I know you guys get pretty busy and I would imagine it would take awhile to put something together... with that said, I believe we only have 30 days membership to this forum.. and I would like to start picking this up as I really want to go to BIloxi over Christmas break :)

If there is anyone willing to give me a few pointers - please PM me..

And Ellis -I'm still in for live classes or a video class... So many options today with technology :)

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SAP charting is fully explained SOMEWHERE on our forum but even I would have a tough time finding it at this point.

But SAP charting is the simplest thing in the world once you've seen it demonstrated and once you see first hand WHY we do it.

Ellis,

I believe this link to an original message from PapaJoe explains SAP charting and an example so that even I could understand it when I was hopelessly confused on how to do SAP charting.

http://www.beatthecasino.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5698&p=19664#post19664

Hope this helps.

MVS

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patrickeregan

Thanks for your assist so far. Now that I have read many many of these threads, there is still a couple things I would like to get clear. I understand about the O/R count and the use of the SAP chart. I understand LC/MC.

They thing that I picked up so far is not to jump between systems very quickly. Let them play out. So if the O/R shows it is a streaky table, keep playing streaking until the O/R count becomes positive.

So what are the times when you should change systems when the O/R has not shown a change from negative to positive or positive to negative?

And what do you do when you have a super streak shoe and it changes to a super choppy shoe. I know you said the new manual will have that section that you are currently working on. Also if it is different if it comes from super choppy to super streak.

Lastly, any idea when you think you might get this final manual done?

Thanks again.

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Thanks for your assist so far. Now that I have read many many of these threads, there is still a couple things I would like to get clear. I understand about the O/R count and the use of the SAP chart. I understand LC/MC.

They thing that I picked up so far is not to jump between systems very quickly. Let them play out. So if the O/R shows it is a streaky table, keep playing streaking until the O/R count becomes positive.

So what are the times when you should change systems when the O/R has not shown a change from negative to positive or positive to negative?

And what do you do when you have a super streak shoe and it changes to a super choppy shoe. I know you said the new manual will have that section that you are currently working on. Also if it is different if it comes from super choppy to super streak.

Lastly, any idea when you think you might get this final manual done?

Thanks again.

Hi Pat, Your studies are going well. You want to get to the right system as early in the shoe as possible. So most switching is early in the shoe as the OR count settles into a pattern. Your score is your early warning indicator and the most obvious. It is almost always in agreement with the OR count.

For instance, a + count shoe is favoring Opposites and S40 bets mostly opposites so your score is + indicating you are playing the right system and the OR count confirms that. The same is true in reverse with F2.

From there it is good practice to become extremely familiar with what each system likes and dislikes. Which system would have won the MOST hands thus far??? So you are constantly looking back.

For instance, you might be doing OK with S40 yet you note that OTB4L would have won more hands thus far. (single 1's, high 2s, high 3s, and no 5 or mores. This would not only tell you to give OTB4L a shot, it would also tell you the optimum no. of bets in your prog before going on a run. This takes experience and practice.

This brings up one 10 player shoe we played. Tess was sitting 3 seats down from me and could not see what I was doing very well. My score was going straight - but I could see that OTB4L would be winning. So I switched pretty early, about play 7. My score began to climb immediately. It was a tough shoe so I quit at +9 with a worst position of -8. So I got up to see how the others were doing. Tess was at -8, up from about -24. Yes, she had finally switched to OTB4L but much later than I had. I think this strongly points out that the sooner you get to the BEST system the better off you are. CONTANT REVIEW of the hands thus far. What SHOULD I have been playing???

Now, on the previous Hollywood trip nearly every shoe was "behaving". + shoes stayed + and - shoes stayed -. We took advantage of that fact and literally killed them with ease. But the casino also took note and made some changes. On this trip, few shoes behaved. + shoes would suddenly change to - and vice versa.

So we had to change to these new conditions. It became obvious right off that we could NOT exploit the first bet and we quickly changed from a 3 first bet to a 1 first bet and we reduced our goal from +20 to +10. Most of us also reduced our hi bet to 3. I played 2 Hi on quite a few shoes. That was all the traffic would bare this trip. But, by making these changes early (Friday night) I was still able to maintain a 90% shoe win rate. Every time I tried to beat +10 I ended up back at +10 and even +9 a few times. Eventually I quit trying. +10 was the name of the game this trip.

You should take this as a strong indication that casinos KNOW what they are doing. THEY learn too! The cards are NOT random. Such trips teach you to ALWAYS adjust to the conditions at hand. It is not always easy. Casinos may seem NICE to you but behind the scenes they are struggling to BEAT you. THAT is their job!

So to answer your question YES, we TRY to avoid switching as much as possible and to get it done as early as possible. But sometimes the casino really has it all together and sometimes they don't. Bad conditions we pull in the reins, we back off! Good conditions we EXPLOIT. THAT is OUR job!

Last trip + 10 was a dissapointing score. This trip +10 was a great score!

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Some trip notes:

I realized after I mentioned it that I have that all Player side F3 game here so I'll call it in to Keith tonight and he can post it. This will give me a chance to discuss F3 which we have not discussed recently. Sometimes F3 is the name of the game and you need to know how to recognize that fact.

Last trip I found the easiest shoes in the morning right after the card prep. The card prep was producing either consistent + or consistent - shoes. Very easy!

This trip the card prep was producing consistent results BUT the results were consistently BAD. + went to - and - went to +. That is why Aegis and I examined some of the card preps. Sure enough they were conducting whet we call an EYE wash instead of a real watch. In a real wash the dealer washes all 8 decks at once and usually very thoroughly. This trip they were conducting a very skimpy 2 deck wash. Virtually useless so that new cards still contained much of their boxed card order. This caused the all over the place shoe type new cards were producing.

This trip I found the best shoes late at night. The two shoe colors had finally settled into consistent chop or consistent streak. Had I been alone I would ONLY have played the late night shoes. Very often, when playing alone, I ONLY play new cards. THAT strategy would NOT have worked this trip but late night cards would have.

It is NOT about how many shoes you play. It IS about how well you select the shoes you DO play. It is NOT about challenging tough shoes. Its about waiting for shoes that are NO challenge. We are not there for heroics. We are there to win money the EASIEST way possible.

The biggest mistake I saw players make was staying in shoes far too long. Look, your biggest advantage is you can quit at ANY time. The dealer CAN'T. BUT, it is only an advantage IF you take advantage of it. Hit and run! There will always be another shoe.

A 123 prog is only good for about ten units. DON'T go for 20. You'll likely end up at 0 or worse.

Sure, U1D2 M2 is good for +20 BUT these were NOT U1D2 conditions. That would have been far too aggressive for the conditions at hand this trip. Maybe next time!

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Ellis,

I think a GotoWebinar where you have scorecards showing and a microphone to talk would be suffice. I bet within 1 hour you could go over all the basics and answer questions - may be somethiing you may want to do on a regular basis, and or record.

I am willing to let you use my GotoWebinar account if interested.

Alot of us are having a struggle and a little get together where we see your screen would probably be a HUGE help..

David

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I think Keith will have this webininar program debugged by the time I get back.

I'm at a Hospice House in Mountain Home Arkansas on vigil, waiting for my 43 year old son, the last of my family, to die. The hospital removed him from life support two days ago according to his wishes. I'll be here anywhere from hours to days.

They happen to have a computer here so maybe I can answer some of your questions. That will help keep my mind off things. Outliving your whole family is the worst thing that can ever happen to you.

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Dear Ellis,

I hope that things will go better, however I'll pray for him and will be close to you in spirit!

andrea

bacclover

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