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Well played Keith! I would understand your play that after the P232 start you may be playing follow down as the OR seems going negative. Then you switch back to OTB4L and at the end you see 1s coming and try a S40? I wish i get this kind of shoes more often in Singapore.

Right Witchy, we all like to get these. But it just goes to further demonstrate that casinos like, and therefore get, a preponderance of OTB4L shoes because nobody else knows how to play them. I'll bet Keith was the only winner at this table. With your preshuffled cards in Singapore the casino has even more control.

Again, I seriously doubt anybody actually shuffles your "preshuffled" cards. It is far more likely the cards are put in one of many specific orders Just as sealed single decks are always put in a specific order. The casino is certainly going to know which specific orders favor OTB4L and therefore big casino profits.

You need to always put yourself in the mind of the casino even though that is going to be a pretty nasty state of mind. But, they are making 26% on a 50/50 game SOMEHOW. And that "somehow" is not always pretty.

Their idea of cheating and ours are two entirely different things.

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You would have won 22 units I think! An extra 5 units.

Actually only an extra 3 units. But he made the correct play at #8 from a SAP standpoint. The weighted average for 2s was 2 and for 3s was 3. So you could expect the 2iar to go to 3 but for me at least it was too close a call to deviate from OTB4L so soon. But Keith is a stickler for SAP.

I'm still betting everyone else at the table lost because they have no idea how to play OTB4L shoes which are pretty much the name of the game these days. And, of course, they have no idea how to play SAP either.

Most, at best, only know how to play opposites or repeats which would have put then at +1 at best at play 8 rather than +8. The most common system, TB4L, would have lost every bet in the shoe at that point except play 5. They would have to wait for play 14 to win their second bet of the shoe. If they were dumb enough to still be playing.

NOR players will soon note that casinos rank them as the best players on the floor. Shoes like this show you why.

We tend to compare ourselves with each other instead of the other players. We forget that the average player loses to the tune of 26% of his buy in money. Half of them do WORSE than that.

But we can thank them that casinos still deal Baccarat. If everyone played NOR, the casinos would have stopped dealing Baccarat a long time ago.

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In the fourth bet from the bottom where there is a choice between the mode 2 and 3... since this is the first time faced with that choice what is the best way to do it? I have read before to go mode 2, go mode 3 or don't make the bet until the mode is established.

Good question! It shows you are thinking.

First we don't know if Keith's intention was to bet 123 4 or U1D2 since he never lost a 3 bet and therefore never needed to make that decision.

Personally I play NOR+ and bet U1D2 and stay in MODE 3 unless it proves totally wrong. In Mode 3 whether looking at opposites or repeats we never lose our 3 bet. So even if we went by the 3rd bet rule, we would never change modes because we never lose the 3rd bet.

But also look at this. OTB4L M3 hits 24 times out of 30 bets for an 80% hit rate. Whenever you are getting an 80% hit rate, you don't change anything. Most players play their whole lives W/O EVER achieving an 80% hit rate.

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This 31 play shoe could result in +23 units using NOR+ U1D2. Below I show the shoe as Keith played, and next to it how it could be played with NOR+. It is always easy to play a shoe after the fact, so I think it is interesting to consider two situations where it is possible I would have chosen to make a different play in the live casino.

First, on play 14, with the loss and the OR at -3, I went OTR on play 15 and stayed there until the loss on play 16 (Mode 1 in NOR+). Now in live play, it is POSSIBLE I would have made the same play as Keith as to this point in the shoe there had been no 4iar. My decision would have been influenced by what I was experiencing in other shoes at the table or possibly other tables in the casino. If I had made the 2 bet on Player, then on play 16 it would have been a 3 bet on Player -- so that decison would have only cost 1 unit (U1D2 M3 handles many situations).

The next on is play 27, where the 2 bet lost to a chop. NOR+ would have us stay in M3 and make the 3 bet on Bank at play 28. In a live casino, it is possible I would made no bet (as mentioned by Ztomsk) because at this point there had been no chops in the shoe. I doubt I would have gone OTR on play 28 (mode 1) as there was no history in the shoe or OR count to support it. Given that I was up 17 units through only 27 plays (a strong shoe to this point), it is likely I would have stayed with M# and made the 3 bet on Bank. If I had paused and made no bet, it would have cost 2 units.

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Keith, Way2fast,

Great job on plays and details of decision-making biases!

As Way2fast stated - playing thru recorded shoe history is full of hindsight bias traps! Much better training wise to have a NOR player call or type out shoes 1 decision at a time - like thru GotoMeeting or Google Chat or etc.

Then we would not have "seen" the shoe type history - and really have to think thru and bias our decisions off the O/R, the SAPs, etc.

More realistic and more challenging - all leading to improved NOR/NOR+/SAP gaming skills.



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