Here's an "odd" run through the shoe

[MVSeahog]

All,

Wasn't quite sure where to post this but we may as well post it up in the public area and perhaps somebody will learn something from it.

The wife was out spending a bit more of my retirement money and I had all my local chores done so I popped on in at BetPhoenix to see how the shoe was looking. It was looking pretty good I think.

The main reason for posting this up was to show all of the "1,2" series in it!! I've been seeing a lot of "player" type shoes at BPH and no matter what "theory" you subscribe to about Player/Banker, these strong player shoes are kind of nice to deal with.

I logged in and got to the game around hand 8 and made the decision to jump in at hand 13 running OTB4L. Fx on the strong side would also have been a legitimate start I would think. OC was +3 and nothing really pointing to a streak play so it was off to the races.

As it turned out, it was a good choice. A single "4" in there (on player too) and two "3's" made this a simple run to the end.

If you're transcribing, here's the numbers:

Bet Phoenix 07-11-2013 10pm

B1212121213121

B221121211412

B121212

MVS

[donald]

Thanks for posting. Interesting shoe, well played. Keep winning.

[Guest]

A +10 OR count in 49 plays yet people think the game is random and everything will even out over the course of a single shoe. Idiots, we are surrounded by idiots. I wonder if they think golf is random too. You hit the ball and it lands somewhere randomly. Well, for some, I guess that's true.

[kachatz1]

The moral of the story is clear, and YES, I have had the same experience...

DO NOT leave your retirement money out on the table where the wife can see it, as you will likely end up in one of two situations.

Playing Baccarat on line.

Playing Golf.

There is of course one last scenario...that being the wife will decide there is just enough money to get her to somewhere far, far away...which will leave you plenty of time for BAC and Golf, to be enjoyed at your leisure...

( love those 1,2 shoes...)

[waminc]

Kevin,

You'd have to decide whether to come to the Coast or go to Vegas. Hate to have that kind of pressure on you.

Bill

[kachatz1]

Kevin,

You'd have to decide whether to come to the Coast or go to Vegas. Hate to have that kind of pressure on you.

Bill

3 guesses...(the first 2 don't count).

[ChiefAurelius]

Can I just ask a question MVS, and forgive me if this is a newby mistake, but in a sequence of 21212121, is there a refinement above OTB4L?

I can see quite plainly how you've flogged this shoe, and walked away smiling, but the reason I ask is that I see so many shoes that have that 21212121 sequence. It doesn't seem to be as common as the TTs where OTB4L reigns supreme, but it does seem to be common.

Or is the rule to keep a steady ship with OTB4L and use your betting progressions to harness any fluctuations in the wrong directions?

Thanks

Chief

[MVSeahog]

Can I just ask a question MVS, and forgive me if this is a newby mistake, but in a sequence of 21212121, is there a refinement above OTB4L?

I can see quite plainly how you've flogged this shoe, and walked away smiling, but the reason I ask is that I see so many shoes that have that 21212121 sequence. It doesn't seem to be as common as the TTs where OTB4L reigns supreme, but it does seem to be common.

Or is the rule to keep a steady ship with OTB4L and use your betting progressions to harness any fluctuations in the wrong directions?

Thanks

Chief

Chief,

Two things to bring up here. The first being the general concensus is NOT to do a lot of switching in the shoe. With that said, and starting in OTB4L, I will tend to stay with it as long as it is producing a profit or at least holding its own until something "better" comes along.

Looking at a shoe with a strong Player bias and running 2,1,2,1,2,1,2 one would probably be on "Fx" on the Player, or strong side. But as we don't know if it will continue, I just stayed with OTB4L until it started pointing to something else.

Starting with F2 at hand 4 would have produced a very nice +10 by hand 19. I'll take that any day! However, it would start to fall apart, depending on what your betting progression was, starting right after that.

At hands 20-23 you might think about changing due to the "2,3,2" series between hands 18-24 but that would have been premature.

The run of 4 Players at hands 34-37 might have been the start of something, but it had nothing to support it in the previous 9 hands or so.

Being a very conservative player, and having OTB4L showing a nice, but slow, increase in the wins, I elected to just plod along and see what happens.

Had any of the bets lost after the +9 past hand 30, I would have been done with the shoe.

Like I said, a very conservative player for sure!

MVS

[ECD]

Can I just ask a question MVS, and forgive me if this is a newby mistake, but in a sequence of 21212121, is there a refinement above OTB4L?

I can see quite plainly how you've flogged this shoe, and walked away smiling, but the reason I ask is that I see so many shoes that have that 21212121 sequence. It doesn't seem to be as common as the TTs where OTB4L reigns supreme, but it does seem to be common.

Or is the rule to keep a steady ship with OTB4L and use your betting progressions to harness any fluctuations in the wrong directions?

Thanks

Chief

The 2121212 pattern results in +8 using OTBL. If played S40, it is +6 and is +8 with F. With the repeating 2iar, I would prefer OTBL -- it gives the most flexible options to adjust using SAP (if desired) and to recover using U1D2. Many players would recognize the repeating 21 pattern and adjust the OTBL pattern to allow for the single 1, thus winning every bet. With the power of OTBL and U1D2, you risk very little in doing so as the first time that single 1 goes to a 2iar, you make back the lost bet on the next win and then go right back to OTBL.

[kachatz1]

Great example of TOO MUCH INFORMATION...

Most any NOR derivative puts a beatdown on this shoe...especially when combined with a betting progression like U1D2M2....

But like WhiteSnake sang way back in 1987, and as applies to this shoe, " Is This Love, or Am I Dreaming?" , it is a bit unfair we all get a crack at this with 20/20 vision on the whole shoe...we cannot help but be influenced by the shoe pattern, when we see it beginning to end...

Real time, play by play...S40, OTBL, F, Strong Side, SAP..on this shoe, it all looks EZ...

Just remember, the toughest part is like Kenny Rogers said...( know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em)Deciding when to exit, no matter what combo Bet Placement + Bet Progression , up or down, stop-loss or stop-win, can be equally difficult

Lots of opportunity to exit this shoe with a good win, including " don' t fight the tape" , which would have kept us in for the whole enchilada...

Message is this...we cannot win them all, but we can/will/ do win lots more than we lose applying NOR +, coupled with an appropriate betting progression

LEARN...and GET YOUR SHARE of the Casino's $$$

[ChiefAurelius]

Thanks MVS and Way2fast!

I learnt a lot from that.

Cheers

Chief

[Guest]

Actually the 21 pattern occurs exactly twice as often as the 22 pattern. How can I say that so boldly? No mystery, it's simple math. The 21 is a pattern of 3 and the 22 is a pattern of 4. All patterns of 3 occur twice as often as all patterns of 4 and at the same rate as 3s vs 4s. 3s occur twice as often (once every 16 plays) as 4s, (once every 32 plays).

Given that rarity, it would seem impossible for either pattern to continue very long. And given random cards, it WOULD be virtually impossible.

But in actual fact, you don't need to be playing Bac that long to see either or both patterns continue for 20 plays or more. You will see that long before you will see 20 Banks or 20 Players which has the exact same mathematical frequency of occurrence as 20 21s, or 20 22s.

Why? Simple. Casinos usually make money on the 21s and the 22s because TB4L, still the most common system played, loses big time to both patterns. It loses every single play to the 22s! But it wins every play on straight runs except the first 2 circles. Casinos have gone broke on long straight runs from so many players betting up as you win Fibonacis. Many BIG players only play that coupled with TB4L. The whales! They are at the table max within 10 bets. Whereupon many high stakes pit bosses make the mistake of raising the table limit in an attempt to regain some losses. They will be looking for a new job by tomorrow!

There was the story in Vegas where a major casino dealt a 26 iar and all 14 players were on it at the table max so they raised it. They couldn't pay off the players.

No, we NEVER see 20iars anymore but we used to see them DAILY back in the late '80s, early '90s before the casinos successfully figured out a way to eliminate them completely, thus completely eliminating their exposure in Bac.

So why do we still see 20 iars of the 21 and 22 patterns? Because casinos generally win on those patterns.

So Virtuoid on ImSpirit, a non player, but a good mathematician, says NOR can't work. Ha, but he also says there is no such thing as a choppy shoe or a streaky shoe. He says this even after being astounded when he followed my play for 6 shoes in A.C. and achieved a 26% P.A.! NOW, of course, he says that 26% PAs are common. Goes to show you how much he knows about Baccarat. It also goes to show you how much he knows about gambling. He makes the same mistake ALL mathematicians make. They have to start their math with a given. So they assume random cards. Ha, if the cards were random there would be no casinos. Basic Strategy BJ players would have put them out of business 30 years ago. In reality, I'm guessing you could count the times ANYONE has ever achieved a 26% PA for 6 shoes in a row on one hand - perhaps on one finger. Common my ass! How did I do that? Simple! I played S40 at choppy tables. You know, those tables that don't exist. But all becomes perfectly clear once you look at the fact that Dave's ImSpirit blog is devoted to the concept that people should not gamble because it is mathematically impossible to beat casinos. He is not yet old enough to recognize that people gamble every single day of their lives - for instance, every time they get behind the wheel of a car or plant a crop or leave their umbrella at home. We just openly make a game of it. I'm living proof that casinos are NOT random and therefore CAN be beat.

So yep, you will see 20 iars of 2,1s or 2,2s but never P or B - not anymore. Why? Because the game is NOT random. Thankfully it has trends. "Random" means "trendless". It fits Dave's blog nicely but not OUR purpose. We have to live in the REAL world - not some fairytale makebelieve world of the Mathematician. No, Baccarat cannot be beat by Math. Nevertheless, it CAN be beat! Following a trend is not Math. It is common sense. If Baccarat were random, all players would lose at a rate commensurate with commission. But they don't. They lose at a rate ten times that. How? By betting against trends - just as some Mathematician taught them.

[Guest]

Oh yeah, I forgot. Back to the original subject. Why don't we talk about the 2,1 pattern more than we do? Because there is no need to - All 3 NOR systems beat that pattern soundly. So should we jump on it? No. Why not? The pattern is going to end. If you are betting the pattern you lose the next bet for sure. But sticking to any of the 3 NOR systems we have a 50/50 chance of WINNING the next bet. See that? Besides, it is always good to view switching as a necessary evil to be deployed only when necessary. Chasing is not necessary.

[ChiefAurelius]

Got it Ellis. Thank you again.

I've written down your last statement particularly, as this seems to be a great guiding principle, "view switching as a necessary evil to be deployed only when necessary. Chasing is not necessary."

My friend who has played Bac for decades, and the last 5 years 'professionally' does well, but misses that guiding principle. He often loses thousands chasing a table that's turned against him.

Behaviour probably borne out of frustration at having made money on runs that are becoming less and less obtainable (he can only play flat patterns of Repeats and opposites).

For example, the post I made last week showed a shoe that I profited from using what I've learnt from NOR, and then after dinner I came back to the shoe, and the table could not be more exact in its "correction" to being OTB4L. When you see that regularly, it's hard to believe that it's not engineered that way.

Cheers

Chief

[Guest]

Got it Ellis. Thank you again.

I've written down your last statement particularly, as this seems to be a great guiding principle, "view switching as a necessary evil to be deployed only when necessary. Chasing is not necessary."

My friend who has played Bac for decades, and the last 5 years 'professionally' does well, but misses that guiding principle. He often loses thousands chasing a table that's turned against him.

Behaviour probably borne out of frustration at having made money on runs that are becoming less and less obtainable (he can only play flat patterns of Repeats and opposites).

For example, the post I made last week showed a shoe that I profited from using what I've learnt from NOR, and then after dinner I came back to the shoe, and the table could not be more exact in its "correction" to being OTB4L. When you see that regularly, it's hard to believe that it's not engineered that way.

Cheers

Chief

Your friend is playing TB4L. It used to be a good system but today casinos are smarter than that.

Clue: IT IS Engineered that way.

[LOU30]

Hi MV, I was looking at this shoe and noticed you did'nt go OTR after 2 consecutive loosing bets in OTB4L just wondering is there a reason for that and what mode was you in.

[MVSeahog]

Hi MV, I was looking at this shoe and noticed you did'nt go OTR after 2 consecutive loosing bets in OTB4L just wondering is there a reason for that and what mode was you in.

Had to go back and take a look at the shoe and I think you're looking at hand 38.

I had to make the decision of Modes and with no other streak on Player other than the one that I was currently in, I elected Mode 3 and went for the 3rd wager on OTB4L.

Mostly it was because looking back at the shoe, the was nothing to support that streak continuing on, at least in my brain.

MVS

[Guest]

Right! We usually start OTB4L in M3 because we say M3 covers more events but there is really little reason for that other than standardization, a troublesome term.

There is a better way than standardization. Usually we are starting our first shoe of a session mid shoe. At that point we should KNOW which mode to start in. No, you don't need to go back and fill in all your 3rd bets. There is a much easier and surer way:

Basically Mode 2 favors the streaky side of OTB4L and Mode 3 favors the choppy side. All you need do is look at 4s vs 5 or mores in the shoe thus far. Normally 4s are = to 5+s just as 1's are = to 2 or mores. So which have you seen more of in the shoe thus far:

4s = Mode 3

5+s = Mode 2

The same is true for S40 except now you are looking at 3s vs 4+s. High 3s = M3; High 4+s = M2

This is why we say, in general:

chop favors M3 and

streak favors M2

It pays to start in the right mode! Now you know how to do that.

[LOU30]

Thanks guys, I appreciate your help.