Vegas Seminar

[Keith Smith]

We had a great seminar and we all learned a lot. We solidified and validated the best ways to play. Mike is still playing. We started at the Hard Rock just due to he fact the host made a quarter game for us. We hit the stop loss on the first game of -5 and then continued to play due to it was the only quarter table, a mistake. We then went to Palace Station and hit three good shoes.

We have also quite a number of shoes that Mike documented and played at the Aria that were $100 games on Monday Night.

1.) First rule of thumb is we will have Start rules.

2.) Play new cards after the first 4/5 hands and have SAP pick the way employing the start rules.

3.) If you see a SAP indication to change - change. - Missed it in the Hard Rock Game.

4. ) If you go beyond 20 plays take a small win or loss of + or - 1 or 2.

I just got in from Vegas late last night as my SW flight was delayed for 5 hours.

We will have the shoes when Mike gets back also. If anyone who was at the seminar can post the HR and Palace Station Games before I can get to them please do.

The next MDB seminar will be at the Sands In Bethlehem PA at the Sands.

Regards

K

[ECD]

Thanks for the report Keith, and looking forward to seeing the shoes. Based on my experiences, I also think some start rules based on at least a few hands or events will greatly improve the shoe win rate. Be interested in hearing more details on what the group learned in this area. I'm heading to Vegas tomorrow morning. I think Mike will be gone by then, but if not let's connect.

[speculator9]

Hi All

I was one of the seminar attendees and either played with Kieth and Mike or watched them play on Tuesday. I agree with Keith that it was a great learning experience, win, lose or draw. I'll try to give you what I took away from the day.

1) MDB needs to develop hard and fast Start rules, and we should not be starting to play at hand 2, the way it is outlined. Not only did that start cause us to miss the system switch (from S1 to S23) at hand 4 at the Hard Rock, but it put us down -3 to start with. MDB did recover to +5, however it took more hands to do that and we should have already be gone from the game. I am looking at waiting until 4 hands have been played before starting using either the SAP count or the previous NOR start rules that Ellis developed.

2) If you want to play MDB, Follow the rules, WITHOUT DEVIATION. Ellis has mentioned to look at what the shoe is doing, but if you do that you are actually not playing MDB, you are playing some variation of NOR or whatever you want to call it. I will not name names casinos, or shoes, but quite a few people started making "hunch" bets or "I've seem this before, so I am going to bet this way instead." Did they win sometimes, yeah they did, but as an outside observer I can tell you they lost as many of those bets as they won. Personally, I don't think it mattered if they walked away a winner for the shoe since they were not playing MDB. They happened to pick another system that worked for them in that shoe.

3) Follow the +5/-5 rules RELIGIOUSLY. Again, without naming names, that rule was broken far more than it was observed. And on that thread, personally I think this forum goes in the wrong direction when we post complete shoes with MDB play all the way through. With MDB it does not (and should not) matter what happened either before or after we hit the + or - 5. In my opinion, for MDB, we should only be looking at what occurred from the 1st hand observed to the last hand played when we walked away with our +5 or greater win or our -5 loss. (the Hard Rock would have been +7, if we had waited to start). Again, in my opinion, when you start looking at entire shoes, you are not playing MDB. Even if we only look at that small sample of hands, if we look at enough shoes played that way we will still be able to recognize any tweaks that might need to be made to MDB

4) Trust the secondary progression. That is the rule that most people seemed to have trouble doing. Once they lost the primary progression, a lot of players started looking for "free hands" (no bet) before deciding what they were going to do next, or if they did make the secondary progression bet they were reluctant to resume the primary progression after that win or loss.

5) When you hit the stop win or stop loss, go find another table. For me, as a Vegas resident, that will probably mean going to another casino to play since only a few have more that one or two tables open at a time. The only suggestion I can make to a player with one casino and one table is to develop a weak bladder and hit the restroom until the next shoe start. With MDB played "right", you are never going to get any kind of comps rating because you should not be playing that long at any one table, but if I am winning +5 many more times than I am losing -5, I have no problem paying my own way, since I am paying it with "real" casino money, and not "fake" comp dollars.

Please don't take my above comments the wrong way, they are meant to be constructive, not complaints. The seminar was great, worth every penny, and I think that Million Dollar Baccarat is almost to the point of being the "Holy Grail" of Baccarat systems that I think we have all been looking for, but only for those who will have the mental discipline to:

1) TRUST MBD COMPLETELY and 2) PLAY IT WITH IRON DISCIPLINE FOR THE RULES.

I, for one, plan to practice the current rules, with the start variation I mentioned above, until I can play it in my sleep. Then I plan to start up the progression, although I will probably stop at the $500 unit level (maybe $1,000). I can live with making $2500 to $5,000 a day several days a week. I don't want to be too greedy. Good luck to everyone with Special Thanks to Keith and Pompanomike.

[Gil]

Speculator,

Thank you for your report. You hit the nail on the head. I am experiencing the same problems that you covered in your post. I appreciate you sharing your seminar experience.

Gil

[johnnycs1]

Thanks Speculator for your report. I did not attend after giving it some thought .

Felt that MDB was not fully developed as yet , so how could a seminar be held ?

Your report kinda confirms my thinking , that a little more research on MDB is needed and than another seminar could be held after all the loose ends are tied up ! You would be a great asset to that seminar and maybe even teach it ? I would sure attend that one if you say MDB is nailed !

How many attended and how many would you guess at least covered expenses ?

Thank You,

johnny/albuquerque

[Guest]

Speculator, way2fast and Keith are absolutely right. We need to wait and let SAP tell us when to start and which system to start with - just as it's always telling us which system to play or switch to. It may not be right every time but it is going to be right more often than our hunches because it is going by the hard evidence of shoe history.

I apologize for suggesting we should always start with S1 at play 2. I was going by the very high number of preshuffled shoes Mike had posted that had high 1's and 2s.

I think Mike was playing mostly the high stakes new cards touch games. Casinos like to use known choppy deck bundles at those tables because the high rollers play runs and are thwarted by choppy shoes.

On the other hand the casinos also know that low rollers, ha, like us, play chop so they throw streak at us.

Therefore, as a general rule, low stakes tends to be streaky while high stakes tends to be choppy.

But once they've seen you play the casinos go by how they think you are playing. This is how they get their profits up far higher than commission would dictate in a 50/50 game.

Therefore we need to be prepared for ANYTHING. And the best way of doing that is to depend on SAP and to wait until SAP tells us what to do.

When you are at home playing a pile of practice shoes that's one thing - Those shoes aren't trying to beat you. But in a casino, they ARE trying to beat you. They can fool us but they can't fool SAP.

Therefore I was wrong and the guys are right. Wait for SAP to tell you what to do.

BUT, you can't confirm a system at home. The only way to confirm that a system can beat a casino is to actually play it live against casinos. The guys did just that. And they confirmed that when you let SAP dictate you tend to win but when you go against SAP, like they did in that one shoe, you tend to lose.

So OK, they demostrated that we need to wait for SAP to tell us how and when to start but they also clearly demonstrated that MDB beats casinos.

[trillion]

It is my belief that the high profits generated from baccarat comes from the no commission games that allows players to bet on Panda, Dragon and Tie bets, which have a huge house advantage. A lot of player are swinging for the fences making these bets HOPING for the home run. I have talked with casino personnel and players at the tables and told these players that I personally DO NOT play these SUCKER bets due to the high house percentage.

But to no ones surprise they still continue to make these bets and the casinos are smiling all the way to the casinos cage (Cash COW).

I have started my betting on MDB by waiting for the events of SAP to dictate which system (S1, S2,3 or S4) I should be playing.

I only start early in a shoe without events, if there is an early 4 IAR then and only then do I begin to play S4 and then switch to different systems as the events dictates. I follow the rules to the MDB exactly the way they are laid out in the rules thread that Ellis published. NO VARIATIONS.

I will be playing at Horseshoe in Cincinnatti , Ohio and Hollywood in Lawrenceburg, Indiana over the weekend.

[speculator9]

Hi All, again

I'm glad my seminar report was helpful, but I had a couple of additional thoughts (personal opinion) that I felt the need to throw out after I originally posted it. While it is not perfect (yet), I think Million Dollar Baccarat is where it needs to be, right now, to let all of us meet our goals. To me, watching what went on at the seminar play I think the first issue relates to MDB being a "mechanical" system and the second is that we are too concerned with win rate. Let me explain.

I think the first issue is that Ellis designed Million Dollar Baccarat as a purely mechanical system of play. Mechanical means "MECHANICAL," FOLLOW THE RULES!" If you want to play Baccarat using judgment, that's fine. But, I would suggest you use one of the other BTC systems such as NOR, NOR+, S40 or whatever you choose where judgment calls are part of the system parameters. If you want to change a MDB rule to a different rule that you feel will play better, that's fine also. But, once you have made the rule change and you chose to play MDB: FOLLOW THE RULES! DO NOT over think your plays.

As to the second issue (win rate), years ago, I traded Futures on the CME and CBOT. To be a successful Futures Trader you have to learn how to LOSE MONEY. I was lucky if I had a successful winning trade rate of 50%. BUT, I made far more money on my winning trades, than I lost on my losing trades, so losing ten times in a row was unimportant because I knew that when I had my next winning trade I would get it all back, plus a giant profit.

It all has to do with the psychological concepts revolving around "Random Reinforcement" and how that screws with every humans psyche. To beat the securities market (or the casinos) you have to learn to beat (discipline) yourself first. To quote Napoleon Hill in his "Think and Grow Rich"," FEEL THE FEAR AND DO IT ANYWAY!"

Now we can't do the "win more on a shoe than we lose" in MDB. We are going to win the same amount (+5) that we are going to lose (-5), but I believe we DO NOT need an 80% or 90% win rate to make money at this. In my opinion we should also not be worrying about "breaking even" on a shoe just so that we can say "we won" that shoe. That's a psychological crutch. If it is a losing shoe, take the loss and walk away. Here is how the seminar experience rearranged my thinking on this.

If we can have a win rate of 66.66% (which I think MDB is capable of achieving right now) we are going to win +5 twice for a total of +10 units. You are going to lose one shoe for -5. That three shoe sequence might take you from 60 to 90 minutes to complete, depending on how long you were in a game and your travel time between tables. But, even counting commissions. you are probably ahead +4 units for that "sequence." What does that means? It means that in 90 minutes you earned:

$10 Unit = $40.00

$25 Unit = $100.

$50 Unit = $200.

$100 unit = $400

$200 unit = $800

$500 Unit = $2000 (and so on up the list of unit size.)

How many of us can earn that kind of money in that time period from another source? I know I can't, not anymore. But, MDB can do it for us. We just have to learn to accept that losses are inevitable and develop the mental acceptance of them as part of the path to riches. To use the those trite phrases: "No reward without risk" and " You have to be WILLING to lose money to make money." You do the math. If you did the above referenced "three shoe sequence" twice a day, for several days a week, how many weeks do you think it is going to take to make the money you want to make? You might have to play 6 shoes to get the average (such as a WLWLWW) or 9 shoes (such as LWLWLWWWW), but we should get to the end result we are seeking.

But this brings up one other thing we discussed at the seminar before we went to play, but never came to any realistic (in my mind) conclusion. To me the "Big Elephant" that was not in the room, (and is not realistically discussed in the forum) in bankroll size. I heard numbers like 20 units to 30 units, which I feel is unrealistic and why we are so fixated on "win rate." With that size bankroll. you cannot afford to lose. If you should lose 2 shoes in a row, with that size bankroll the psychological damage that this loss does will prevent most people from trusting themselves, or the MDB system to continue on.

For myself, I plan to use a 100 unit bankroll. That may sound like a lot, but it is only $1,000 to play a $10 unit. If you have that kind of "backup" do you really care if you lose 2, 3, 4, or even 5 shoes in a row. It wouldn't to me, because I know that I have the bankroll to continue playing and , with MDB, I will hit that sweet spot where I win enough shoes in a row to make up my losses and give me the profit result that I want.

I have seen charts of how we should escalate our bet sizes, but that too I feel has been unrealistic. Yeah, if the gods smile on you, and you have the kind of luck that would make you a lottery winner, you might get through the escalation intact, but for most of us, that would not happen. Ask Ellis the kind of bankroll he played with in BJ when he started playing. That is where the whole concept of Risk vs Ruin was developed for gambling games, and too small a bankroll puts you on a greased slide to Ruin.

For what it is worth, here is what I consider to be a reasonable bankroll progression: ( For the purposes of this calculation, I am using 3 shoe blocks with a 4 unit average win per block. We should be able to do better)

$1,000 ($10 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks, Win $1000, Bankroll $2,000

$2,000 ($20 unit) Play 7-3 shoe blocks, Win $50, Bankroll $2,500

$2,500 ($25 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks, Win $2,500, Bankroll $5,000

$5,000 ($50 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks. Win $5,000, Bankroll $10,000

$10,000 ($100 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $20,000

$20,000 ($200 unit) Play 13-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $30,000

$30,000 ($300 unit) Play 9-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $40,000

$40,000 ($400 unit) Play 7-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $50,000

$50,000 ($500 unit) Hey, at this point, you can pretty much do whatever the hell you want to

generate income or increase unit size.

How long it will take to go up the schedule will depend on when, where and how often you can actually play as well as if you spend any of the money won along the way. But, it is my belief, if you play MDB this very conservative way, this type of bankroll will allow you to shrug off the inevitable losing streaks that will occur and provide the psychological support necessary to play the way the system says, even when your psyche is screaming at you to do something else.

Look, the above is just my opinion and I am not sure it will have value to anyone but me. However, it is the major takeaway, in addition to the items I listed in my first post that I received from going to the seminar. It is the method I plan to use to reach that $1,000,000.00 we would all like to take from the casinos. Whether any of it will be useful to anyone, that is something they will have to decide. My last comment is: PLAY MDB AND TRUST THE SYSTEM AND YOURSELF.

One thing I forget in my last post: GIANT THANKS to ELLIS for developing MDB Stick around, I'll send you a Magnum of Dom Perignon when I hit that magical million.

[Keith Smith]

I scanned the first two shoes I played at Palace Station when I got there Sunday Night. Speculator do you have the Hard Rock Game and then the Palace Station Games from Tuesday?

K

[Guest]

Hi All, again

I'm glad my seminar report was helpful, but I had a couple of additional thoughts (personal opinion) that I felt the need to throw out after I originally posted it. While it is not perfect (yet), I think Million Dollar Baccarat is where it needs to be, right now, to let all of us meet our goals. To me, watching what went on at the seminar play I think the first issue relates to MDB being a "mechanical" system and the second is that we are too concerned with win rate. Let me explain.

I think the first issue is that Ellis designed Million Dollar Baccarat as a purely mechanical system of play. Mechanical means "MECHANICAL," FOLLOW THE RULES!" If you want to play Baccarat using judgment, that's fine. But, I would suggest you use one of the other BTC systems such as NOR, NOR+, S40 or whatever you choose where judgment calls are part of the system parameters. If you want to change a MDB rule to a different rule that you feel will play better, that's fine also. But, once you have made the rule change and you chose to play MDB: FOLLOW THE RULES! DO NOT over think your plays.

As to the second issue (win rate), years ago, I traded Futures on the CME and CBOT. To be a successful Futures Trader you have to learn how to LOSE MONEY. I was lucky if I had a successful winning trade rate of 50%. BUT, I made far more money on my winning trades, than I lost on my losing trades, so losing ten times in a row was unimportant because I knew that when I had my next winning trade I would get it all back, plus a giant profit.

It all has to do with the psychological concepts revolving around "Random Reinforcement" and how that screws with every humans psyche. To beat the securities market (or the casinos) you have to learn to beat (discipline) yourself first. To quote Napoleon Hill in his "Think and Grow Rich"," FEEL THE FEAR AND DO IT ANYWAY!"

Now we can't do the "win more on a shoe than we lose" in MDB. We are going to win the same amount (+5) that we are going to lose (-5), but I believe we DO NOT need an 80% or 90% win rate to make money at this. In my opinion we should also not be worrying about "breaking even" on a shoe just so that we can say "we won" that shoe. That's a psychological crutch. If it is a losing shoe, take the loss and walk away. Here is how the seminar experience rearranged my thinking on this.

If we can have a win rate of 66.66% (which I think MDB is capable of achieving right now) we are going to win +5 twice for a total of +10 units. You are going to lose one shoe for -5. That three shoe sequence might take you from 60 to 90 minutes to complete, depending on how long you were in a game and your travel time between tables. But, even counting commissions. you are probably ahead +4 units for that "sequence." What does that means? It means that in 90 minutes you earned:

$10 Unit = $40.00

$25 Unit = $100.

$50 Unit = $200.

$100 unit = $400

$200 unit = $800

$500 Unit = $2000 (and so on up the list of unit size.)

How many of us can earn that kind of money in that time period from another source? I know I can't, not anymore. But, MDB can do it for us. We just have to learn to accept that losses are inevitable and develop the mental acceptance of them as part of the path to riches. To use the those trite phrases: "No reward without risk" and " You have to be WILLING to lose money to make money." You do the math. If you did the above referenced "three shoe sequence" twice a day, for several days a week, how many weeks do you think it is going to take to make the money you want to make? You might have to play 6 shoes to get the average (such as a WLWLWW) or 9 shoes (such as LWLWLWWWW), but we should get to the end result we are seeking.

But this brings up one other thing we discussed at the seminar before we went to play, but never came to any realistic (in my mind) conclusion. To me the "Big Elephant" that was not in the room, (and is not realistically discussed in the forum) in bankroll size. I heard numbers like 20 units to 30 units, which I feel is unrealistic and why we are so fixated on "win rate." With that size bankroll. you cannot afford to lose. If you should lose 2 shoes in a row, with that size bankroll the psychological damage that this loss does will prevent most people from trusting themselves, or the MDB system to continue on.

For myself, I plan to use a 100 unit bankroll. That may sound like a lot, but it is only $1,000 to play a $10 unit. If you have that kind of "backup" do you really care if you lose 2, 3, 4, or even 5 shoes in a row. It wouldn't to me, because I know that I have the bankroll to continue playing and , with MDB, I will hit that sweet spot where I win enough shoes in a row to make up my losses and give me the profit result that I want.

I have seen charts of how we should escalate our bet sizes, but that too I feel has been unrealistic. Yeah, if the gods smile on you, and you have the kind of luck that would make you a lottery winner, you might get through the escalation intact, but for most of us, that would not happen. Ask Ellis the kind of bankroll he played with in BJ when he started playing. That is where the whole concept of Risk vs Ruin was developed for gambling games, and too small a bankroll puts you on a greased slide to Ruin.

For what it is worth, here is what I consider to be a reasonable bankroll progression: ( For the purposes of this calculation, I am using 3 shoe blocks with a 4 unit average win per block. We should be able to do better)

$1,000 ($10 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks, Win $1000, Bankroll $2,000

$2,000 ($20 unit) Play 7-3 shoe blocks, Win $50, Bankroll $2,500

$2,500 ($25 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks, Win $2,500, Bankroll $5,000

$5,000 ($50 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks. Win $5,000, Bankroll $10,000

$10,000 ($100 unit) Play 25-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $20,000

$20,000 ($200 unit) Play 13-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $30,000

$30,000 ($300 unit) Play 9-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $40,000

$40,000 ($400 unit) Play 7-3 shoe blocks. Win $10,000, Bankroll $50,000

$50,000 ($500 unit) Hey, at this point, you can pretty much do whatever the hell you want to

generate income or increase unit size.

How long it will take to go up the schedule will depend on when, where and how often you can actually play as well as if you spend any of the money won along the way. But, it is my belief, if you play MDB this very conservative way, this type of bankroll will allow you to shrug off the inevitable losing streaks that will occur and provide the psychological support necessary to play the way the system says, even when your psyche is screaming at you to do something else.

Look, the above is just my opinion and I am not sure it will have value to anyone but me. However, it is the major takeaway, in addition to the items I listed in my first post that I received from going to the seminar. It is the method I plan to use to reach that $1,000,000.00 we would all like to take from the casinos. Whether any of it will be useful to anyone, that is something they will have to decide. My last comment is: PLAY MDB AND TRUST THE SYSTEM AND YOURSELF.

One thing I forget in my last post: GIANT THANKS to ELLIS for developing MDB Stick around, I'll send you a Magnum of Dom Perignon when I hit that magical million.

Extremely well thought out and well said Speculator!

[Guest]

It is my belief that the high profits generated from baccarat comes from the no commission games that allows players to bet on Panda, Dragon and Tie bets, which have a huge house advantage. A lot of player are swinging for the fences making these bets HOPING for the home run. I have talked with casino personnel and players at the tables and told these players that I personally DO NOT play these SUCKER bets due to the high house percentage.

But to no ones surprise they still continue to make these bets and the casinos are smiling all the way to the casinos cage (Cash COW).

I have started my betting on MDB by waiting for the events of SAP to dictate which system (S1, S2,3 or S4) I should be playing.

I only start early in a shoe without events, if there is an early 4 IAR then and only then do I begin to play S4 and then switch to different systems as the events dictates. I follow the rules to the MDB exactly the way they are laid out in the rules thread that Ellis published. NO VARIATIONS.

I will be playing at Horseshoe in Cincinnatti , Ohio and Hollywood in Lawrenceburg, Indiana over the weekend.

Correct trillion, the new sucker bets have greatly increased casino profits which were already much higher than commission would dictate even before these new sucker bets. Ties definitely contributed to much of that but I think that the casino's ability to select shoe types that oppose the way the players are playing is also a major factor.

Also correct! a starting 4+ either ST or ZZ is a very strong S4 indicator just as it was in Keith's first shoe:

P11111111113124 P11291.

We don't talk about that much because it is so rare. But every now and then.....

[Guest]

Keith's first shoe: P11111111113124 P11291

Any time a shoe starts right off with a 4+ either ST or ZZ it is an S4 shoe.

We don't talk about this much because it is so rare (1/8 of all shoes).

Granted S1 likes 1's but S4 likes 1's just as much..

We used to have a saying: "Runs breed runs" and S4 likes long runs eithr ST or ZZ while S1 only likes ZZ.

I'll play it MDB S1

But I'll also play it MDB+ for lack of a better name.

I don't expect you to fully understand MDB+ but I'll be teaching it at the Aug 9th Vegas Crawl.

MDB+ particularly likes preshuffled cards due to the greater mix.

And it is a virtual can't lose way of playing new preshuffled cards (touch games)

OK fist, in the MDV version note that we never even got to a 2 bet let alone a 3 bet.

Incredibly we made +11 in less than half a shoe FLAT BETTING at 1 unit!.

OK, MDB+:

I had my second confirmed 3+iar at play 19 so starting at play 25 I'm going to bet a 246 that the shoe can't produce 5 3+s before it produces a 2 so at play 25 I bet 2 that the 2iar stays 2.

At play 27 I've already had my second confirmed 2iar so I'm going to bet a 246 that the shoe can't produce 5 2s W/O a 3+

so I bet 2 that the 2 goes to 3.

Then I simply stay on the run with 1 bets until I lose.

Why a 246 rather than a 123?

Because it is such a high percentage progression.

And so that I can get out of the shoe with my +5 sooner - less risk.

MDB+ is good for all shoes but it is the strongest way new preshuffled cards (Vegas touch games) can possibly be played.

I expect Vegas touch players as well as touch players everywhere will win an extremely high % of their shoes playing this very clever way - some trips 100% will not be uncommon.

Again, I'll be teaching this at the Vegas Crawl!

[speculator9]

Keith asked me to post the Hard Rock & Palace station shoes that we played and this post contains them. Just a couple of things I want to mention relating to the shoes.

1) I use my own vertical scorecard format, since I never liked the horizontal scorecard format. There is shading on the scorecard that indicates the "20 play" breakdown, but I am not sure that is obvious on the scan.

2) The A, B, C, D in the headings refers to the 1, 2, 3, or 4+ in a row.

I recopied the Hard Rock scorecard without any plays on it. That is due to our actually starting S1 at play 2 (WRONG) and then missing the switch to S23 at play 4. although we won in the end, several of the plays made did not conform to MDB, so I left that one blank for people to play on their own.

I did show all the bets at Palace Station, up to where I quit at +6. Several other players continued further and I have listed the hands that I recorded after that until we all cashed in.

[speculator9]

Okay, that did not go as planned. The Upload Manager seems to be having fits today (at least for me) and is giving me nothing but database errors. What I am going to do is email Keith the PDF and JPG of the shoes, from my regular email, and he can upload whichever he wants with his almighty bulletin board powers. When he does, look at my previous post for the comments relating to the shoes.

[newbacplayer]

As another member of the class, it was great to have the opportunity to sit down after a live shoe and dissect exactly what happened both good and bad, examining SAP counts, and where decision making faltered. Speculator9 was quite insightful as were Keith and Mike. Very fruitful in advancing my understanding. Wish I could be there in August, but will be out of town. gb

[Pamela Conkey]

Hello everyone, Ellis will you be posting the rules for MDB+ on the forum?

Or is what you did on Keith's shoe all we need to know. Looking at some shoes

from Vegas and my local casino it beat everyone. Vegas was preshuffled local

was not. All touch games. Thanks, Brian

[stevep]

Simple question in the shoe playing S4 play 20 is a run of 4 there is nothing longer after it why then at play 29 did you play the run?

I see the first run was a zz run longer than 4 but in no other shoe do I see us betting all runs will go the length of the first run only the previous run.

[newbacplayer]

Question for consideration: TB4L seems to beat virtually everything but the terrible twos with a 1-2-4 progression, and OTB4L beats the terrible twos and does well with threes as well with a simple 1-2-3 progression. I'm wondering if it makes some sense to consider these two systems [as opposed to three systems] when examining the SAP numbers? Perhaps this has already been considered in some of the older forums related to game play, but logically it would at least seem to make sense. gb

[ECD]

Question for consideration: TB4L seems to beat virtually everything but the terrible twos with a 1-2-4 progression, and OTB4L beats the terrible twos and does well with threes as well with a simple 1-2-3 progression. I'm wondering if it makes some sense to consider these two systems [as opposed to three systems] when examining the SAP numbers? Perhaps this has already been considered in some of the older forums related to game play, but logically it would at least seem to make sense. gb

Mike mentioned something similar after his sleep-deprived Vegas trip, and I have been having thoughts that might be closely related. Before MDB, I was using a slightly modified version of NOR -- basically playing either OTBL or TBL (picking the system based on what events were happening in the shoe). I would generally bet 2hi, then wait for a new set -up (full credit to Norm for this aspect). I would make the 3 unit bet only when supported by strong shoe history (SAP). To me, OTBL is a very special way to play -- no one else uses it or has a f**king clue what we are doing with it, and it beats so many events -- thank you Ellis! TBL is just another version of S40. It is an opposite based system that goes on the run after a single repeat. I am excited about MDB because it: 1. also uses a 2hi approach; 2. has a creative way to deal with the chosen system weakness (the secondary progression); and 3. Uses a more disciplined win goal which works well with large units. Interestingly, my approach has done very well with preshuffled re-used cards and not as well with preshuffled new cards. My experience so far with MDB shows it is stronger on the new cards than on the re-used cards.

So in my mind there can be two systems: OTBL and an "Opposite" system, which can be modified to play runs based on what events are ocuring. The way I think about the game, we really have that now -- S1 (S40) and S4 (S40M1) are just different versions of the "Opposite" system.

What do you think Mike?

Regarding the betting progression, I don't see using a 1-2-4. I don't think any system with a 5 unit win goal can make 4 unit bets and expect to maintain a consistent and high shoe win rate.

Have some more observations to share after this weekend's LV trip (16 shoes, 11 win; 5 loss). Will try to get some posts up this week.

[Action Mike]

I haven't tested it yet against my shoes, but my thought is basically looking into something that uses only TB4L and OTBL, choses it mechanically based on SAP count and has the primary and secondary progressions.

[Guest]

I haven't tested it yet against my shoes, but my thought is basically looking into something that uses only TB4L and OTBL, choses it mechanically based on SAP count and has the primary and secondary progressions.

Will be interested in your results.

Keith and I both think that eliminating the primary prog altogether and just betting the secondary prog of 1,2,3 againt 2s or 3s or 4+, whichever has just occurred twice, is a can't lose way to play. How often do you see 5 3s W/O a 2 or 5 2s W/O a 3 in preshuffled cards. Virtually never. But 5 of one with none of the other before you get to +5 is the only way you could lose a prog. You don't bet very often but you bet enough to get you to +5 with just a 123 prog. We think this is particularly good against NEW preshuffled cards. I think a player could easily go all day W/O losing a single prog. We think it is particularly effective against new preshuffled cards because of the greater mix we see with new cards.

Ordinarily the greater mix is what makes them so hard to beat with your primary prog. But mix is on OUR side with the secondary prog. How often have you lost your secondary prog? Likely never. And you were betting against only 4 two or 4 threes. Once you make it 5 you double your odds of winning and nobody was ever losing at 4. We think it is as close to can't lose as you can possibly get. We think players will frequently go all day W/O losing a single prog. And you no longer need a 0 bet.

Just wait for the second 2 or the second 3 or the 2nd 4+ to occur and bet a 123 against it occurring 3 more times. From there, any time you get 2 2s or 2 3s or 2 4+ bet against that event happening 3 more times W/O an intervening event. They don't need to be consecuative. For instance, a shoe that goes 123412341234 you win every prog on the first bet. Good mix and tied SAP counts work in our favor. The only way you could lose is if 3s or 4+ get to a SAP count of 20 while 2s or 3s stay at 0 or 2s get to 10 with 3s at 0. That virtually never happens in regular cards let alone new preshuffled cards.

We think it's the safest and surest way to get to +5 there is. MDB+!

Sure, sometimes your primary prog does well, but other times it sucks, just as gman has pointed out. And the newer the cards the more often it sucks. Hey, if it sucks that often, why are we even betting it???

But Gman also said he only lost his secondary prog once in all the test shoes he played. And that was betting against an event occurring only 4 times. That is rare enough, let alone 5.

We need new cards or touch games where someone, even if it's one of our own guys, is playing every hand. These are the most common games in Vegas. We sit back and only make the very high percentage secondary prog bets. We can bet virtually any prog: a 123, a 246, a 345 a 146, even a 248. You are betting that one event won't occur 5 times W/O the other event occurring once. I'll take that bet every time - especially with new preshuffled cards. 5 4+s W/O a 3 or 5 3s W/O a 4+; 5 3+ W/O a 2 or 5 2s W/O a 3+. You could go a month W/O losing a 3 bet prog and you'd likely NEVER lose a 4 bet prog. 1235. How often have you ever seen 6 4+ W/O a 3???. I bet NEVER!

Basically we are using the casinos own cheating against them. The more random the cards are the better we do. See that?

We think MDB+ sheds a whole new light on getting to a million dollars in a reasonable length of time.

That's why, for the Vegas Crawl, I want several of our best players to know exactly how to play this new MDB+. That way, everbody comes out a winner!

[Fedda]

Ellis, for those of us that still play regular card, what's your recommendation here within MBD area? I've thought about reverse the secondary prog but I don't know..?

[LittleJim]

Ellis

What about 1's?

Would they work as well 2's 3's & 4's?

LittleJim

[Pamela Conkey]

Hello everyone, Ellis could you put up a couple of shoes with

play by plays? I've gone thru 50 shoes and won 48 of them.

Some from Vegas others from my local casino all touch games.

Either this way of playing is the cats ass, or I'm doing it wrong.

Most likely the latter, LOL. I even won some out of your old tester!

Thanks for all the info so far. Brian..

[stevep]

I am now only confused with one thing in the MDB+.

Play 11-13 is a 3iar

Play 15-16 is a 2iar

Play 17-20 is a 4iar

How do you beginning betting saying that you had your second confirmed 3iar at play 19? I guess that would be like saying I had a confirmed 2iar after play 18. Since when do we confirm anything until after the run? I could understand if we confirmed a 4iar before the end of a run once it has gone at least 4iar but not in any other circumstances.