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MDB+ / SAP Perspective

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Hi everyone,

I am just back from playing this interesting touch shoe with factory pre-shuffled cards.

I post this shoe and raise the issue of the SAP count.

Ellis tells us that the best SAP count for MDB+ is when the SAP count is relatively equal,

in other words the shoe is neutral (= super random).

This shoe, although not a raging success show that MDB+ can still function even when the SAP

count is somewhat skewed.

After the 3 x 4's early in the shoe followed by the 2 x 3's, this told me it was not a shoe where there

would be a lot of 1's and 2's. So I did not play the options involving the 1's and 2's.

And the SAP proved this to be correct, and the shoe was not a disaster.

I suspect that if a shoe is high in 3's and 4's, there are still enough opportunities

for MDB+ to do well.

Note: I did not play the last bet (2 goes to 3) as it was the last hand




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THanks for that Pando. I think MDB+ is such a great system but as you have proven you can make your adjustments if it doesn't work on the cards at your casino so that it does work. My casino also produces cards high in 1's and 2's meaning I have to modify the rules a little also but it can still work.

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I played 3 more shoes today

One was high in 1's, one was high in 2's, and the third was

totally neutral, something of everything.

That's where the SAP count is so useful, to track the bias of the shoe

Good luck


Correct! I want to get back to the Singapore shoes that were posted. At first glance, those were SAP shoes.

Maybe that's the best way to play such shoes.

If a shoe is high in something, doesn't matter what, SAP alone will beat that shoe even just flat betting.

On the other hand, if a shoe is NOT high in anything, MDB+ will kill it.

ALL shoes are one or the other. It just depends on what a given casino likes to present.

When playing SAP, because you are seeing uneven SAP counts

it is best NOT to short cut it: Keep FIVE counts:

1's = 1

2's = 2

3's = 4

4's = 8 and

5+s = 8

Recognize that a high count in ANYTHING actually gives you 2 bets.

Take the first Singapore shoe: It was very high in 4s, while low in 3s.

That gives you TWO bets:

That 3s will go to 4

AND that 4s will stay 4.

You can do very well in that shoe just flat betting those TWO bets.

You can even do better with a 124 prog on those two bets.

When you have a high count in ONE event, mathematically you MUST have an equally low count in one or more other events.

Sooo, if you bet AGAINST low count events and ON high count events - you are playing perfect Baccarat in all high SAP disparity shoes.

ON THE OTHER HAND, you also get LOW disparity SAP shoes - all 4 counts are running about the same.

FINE! You simply reverse your strategy.

Now you bet ON the low count event(s) and AGAINST the high count events.

Now you are betting the SAP counts will equalize because THAT is the tendency of that shoe.

Recognize THAT is what we are doing when we play MDB+.

Yes, MDB+ does very well in low SAP disparity shoes and that is what Vegas is producing right now.

BUT, even though Singapore is ALSO factory preshuffled shoes, probably from the same card manulacturer , probably Bee,

the Singapore casinos take the opposite tact:

They order their cards in card orders that produce far flung SAP counts -

They THINK they do best with such cards.

But SAP does equally well in BOTH game types:

1.) Mostly EQUAL SAP counts in Vegas - And

2.) Far flug (high disparity) SAP counts in Singapore - and perhaps all of Asia.

All we need to know is:

What the casino, or even the table we are playing right now is leaning toward:


We don't care which it is because BOTH are beatable.

But only if we KNOW which it is BEFORE we sit down.

EVERY casino in the world AND on line is ONE or the other.

Every casino in the world and EVERY shoe in the world tends toward one or the other:

Either toward EQUAL or toward UNEQUAL SAP counts.

I'm beginning to see that more and more clearly these days as you guys submit more and more shoes.

The FACT is that we should ALL be playing SAP!

THAT is what NORM was doing AND he was doing it with a 1,2 prog - often simply flat betting at 1.

Yes, MDB+ is doing very well in Vegas.

But it is doing well BECAUSE MDB+ is a form of SAP.

Sooo, if MDB+ is doing well, true SAP would be doing even better!

Because it tells you the BEST bets and exactly which bets are best and exactly how good they are - mathematically.

BUT MDB+ only plays SAP ONE way, when

The simple fact is, we should ALL be playing SAP BOTH ways, depending on the leanings of the table we are playing right now - EQUAL vs UNEQUAL SAP counts.

Look, I realize that what I'm saying will be shocking to some of you - especially new guys.

BUT at one point just a few years ago, everyone on this forum was playing SAP AND we were averaging 6 units a shoe with a 1,2 progression.

I checked the first 300 Vegas shoes and that was our average: 6 units per shoe.

BUT, we were only playing SAP ONE way: that the highest count would go relatively higher

and the lowest count would go relatively lower.

In other words, we were betting ON the highest count events and AGAINST the lowest count events.

This worked so well that it caused Vegas to change their strategy.

Today we would be better off betting AGAINST the highest count events and ON the lowest count events when we are playing Vegas.

But we would be even better off if we went by the casino and the shoe at hand!

Just as you said Pando: "One was high in 1's, one was high in 2's, and the third was

totally neutral, something of everything."

OK, that is what you must do - differentiate between equal and unequal shoes - just as you did.

In the UNEQUAL shoes, which is what we see most of the time, EXCEPT Vegas, we should play SAP normally - betting ON the highest events and AGAINST the lowest events. That is the very best way such shoes can be played.

But, at the same time, we need to recognize that some shoes tend toward EQUAL SAP counts including most Vegas shoes.

We need to totally recognize that fact and play such shoes accordingly (backwards). In EQUAL shoes we need to be betting that the SAP counts will equalize by betting AGAINST the highest count events and ON the lowest count events - just as MDB+, in fact, DOES.

BUT, in fact, SAP does it BETTER and SURER than MDB+ can possibly do it.

I KNOW that for a fact because I designed BOTH concepts. ON or AGAINST SAP.

Way2fast, are you listening?

You do great in Vegas because you are basically betting SAP will equalize. See that?

But you would do even better in Vegas if you simply bet SAP will equalize - against the highest count and ON the lowest count. See that?

But you didn't do so hot in A.C. did you?

BECAUSE in A.C. the casinos deploy the opposite strategy when they order their cards.

Check your shoes. I'm betting that in AC you shold have bet the exact opposite - that the SAP counts will continue to disperse even further.

Replay your AC shoes: Bet the highest SAP count will go up and the lowest will go down.

For instance: lets say in the shoe at hand 3s have the highest count and 2s the lowest count.

OK fine, you bet that 2s will go to 3 AND that 3s will stay 3.

Do the same thing with the 2nd lowest count and the second highest count.

You are simply betting the SAP counts will continue to disperse. When in AC do as.....

Now check your Vegas shoes:

Do the exact opposite:

For instance, let's say 3s are high and 4s are low: Fine, bet 3s will go to 4 and 4s will stay 4 - that the SAP counts will equalize.

When in Vegas do as.....

Do you get it?

Keep 5 SAP counts: 1's, 2s, 3s, 4s, and 5 or mores.

I'm thinking that BOTH your Vegas and your A.C. shoes will do even better.

On your Vegas shoes - just go by your highest and lowest SAP counts. Don't bother with the 2nd highest and 2nd lowest unless they also show big disparity.

Yes, right guys, I'm recommending a whole new way of playing - well, new for some of us. SAP.

A competitor, ha, yep, a competitor once said that my SAP was the best possible way the game can be played.

You know what? I'm beginning to realize he was right. Took 30 years but better late than never!

No, don't let this scare you. It is not a bad thing. It is a very good thing.

SAP is VERY simple. It is purely mechanical. There are no modes. It tells you both when to bet and what to bet on.

The bet signals are better and surer than MDB+.

All you need to determine is do we bet SAP counts will equalize or disperse even further.

For now you can simply go by where you are playing:

In Vegas, bet on equalization!

Everywhere else, bet on further dispersement.

When you are right, you'll know soon enough.

When you are wrong, reverse your strategy.

Pretty soon, you'll know BEFORE the game. EVERYBODY knows after the game.

Look, it is the best way this game can be played!

From now on I'm going to concentrate on exactly how to play SAP.

Like what exactly do I mean when I say 2s are high and we aren't in Vegas.

More likely we are playing on the internet.

When I say bet ON 2s, I'm simply saying bet that 2 will remain 2.

So when you get 2 of something you simply bet the other side. You are betting 2s will stay 2. Get it?

It is just like Pando said. Most shoes are high in at least one event and equally low in another event

Fine, In such shoes, you bet ON the high event and AGAINST the low event.

But Pando also said that some shoes aren't high in anything. That also means they aren't low in anything either.

Fine, you simply reverse strategy. Now you bet AGAINST the highest event and ON the lowest event.

You are betting SAP counts will equalize BECAUSE that is what is happening in the shoe at hand. See that?

OK we know that we don't all have equal command of the English language.

Fine, I'll show you plenty of examples.

But here's the thing. We are all learning the SAME very simple system. We are all in the same boat AND we can help each other.

We did very well with SAP before and we were only playing it ONE way.

I'm going to teach you BOTH ways - Equalization vs Dispersment.

We will usually be playing Dispersment - unless we are in Vegas

But there are times.....

SO, we need to know BOTH ways.

But it is easy - as you will soon see.

Edited by Ellis
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Hmmm, well perhaps I worried too soon about net betting. I have tried MDB+ online at Bogart (Bet Phoenix) and I got creamed almost every time. Maybe by using SAP counts I can let the shoe tell me when normal MDB+ will work for me and when i need to play sap normally and bet on the highest

events and against the lowest events. I was hoping net betting would be the key to playing online but perhaps I should wait and see how this works out. As long as we win it doesn't matter how, lol. Still very interested in net betting 2 hi though!

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Hi Ellis,

Thanks for your great thought. I was playing in 5Dimes. I saw a lot of unequal shoes.

For example:




When we are playing MDB+, we need to wait for two confirm 3's, and then bet the next 3's goes to 4.

If we are playing SAP count in unequal shoes, do we need to wait for two confirm 3's.

Also, if possible, can you give us some example when you have time.

Thank you

Edited by Ellis
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Hi Ellis,

I'm in Milwaukee killing the blackjack tables, but I'll give sap /reverse sap a whirl one night and let you know how it went.


John has been with me since the early 90s. He is one of our most successful players both BJ and Bac. We've played together a zillion times.

John has also done a lot of computer Bac testing for us - 10,000 actual casino shoes.

We were the first and the ONLY forum to ever show a positive result on such testing. Ha, extremely positive.

OTB4L U1D2 finished with a 6% PA. That is unheard of - BUT

OTB4L U1D1 finished with a 34% PA.

That is why I can tell you for sure that casinos lean toward OTB4L shoe presentation.

BTW John, my ph # is still 901 405 1723.

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Being able to play SAP both ways would be amazing...cant wait to see how we do this.....major break through....

I'm going to teach you BOTH ways - Equalization vs Dispersment.

We will usually be playing Dispersment - unless we are in Vegas

But there are times.....

SO, we need to know BOTH ways.

But it is easy - as you will soon see.

I yell "winner winner chicken dinner on all naturals"

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This is a very good point fatherfred

Here is a shoe from Sunday which completely changed character





In my view this was an MDB+ shoe until the clump 362415

Then the shoe had a long run of 1's and 2's, which is a NOR shoe

This does not happen often in my local casino and it caught

me by surprise.



Wow! Great post! The one thing that scares me with SAP though are those changing biases within the shoe, but maybe you have something in your pocket to work that around? Thanks!
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Spent a couple nights at the casino and could not pass by the blackjack games. I like playing blackjack and will always test those games and if they are tough then it is to the bac games. Well I didn't lose a blackjack game, so I never played a bac game. I looked at some tote boards and they were consistent games. High disparity from those that I checked, if threes were missing they never showed up, same with fours and twos. This was from about a dozen totes over two nights. Well I am back home and back to work... Sorry I don't have more info


"If you don't think too good, don't think too much!!"



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