SAP/RSAP Questions

[Guest]

Use this thread for your questions and comments.

[cookie0410]

Ellis thanks for starting the lesson on SAP/RSAP. Doing the SAP card makes perfect sense to me so looking forward to how to use this to bet.

In you post you mentioned about using SAP for NOR, when we learn the SAP/RSAP will we need to use NOR as well, I think the issue for me personally is having so much to learn and so many options when we turn up to the baccarat table, way2fast plays mainly MDB+ and OZ plays his way. As mentioned in previous posts does SAP/RSAP cover us if that's all we play? Long term of course i want to know NOR MDB+ and SAP/RSAP close to perfect but to start with will SAP?RSAP guide me exactly what to play and when? Could we all just use SAP/RSAP and be successful?

Thanks again for getting this started.

[brad01]

I believe the answer is yes

MDB+ is perfect RSAP system

The most important thing is to understand and record the SAP Count correctly and then you know which events are Most Common (MC) and Least Common (LC)

So if you see an event that you know is most common (MC) that looks like occurring then you bet that it does

If you see that an event is least common is starting to occur then bet that it doesn't occur

That way you are using SAP to give you a high % bet better than 50/50

Use flat bet, 1,2 progression, or 1,2,3, or 1,2,4

So SAP can be a system in itself

As you say long term the goal is to learn everything.

The more you know the easier it is to find a way to beat the shoe more often

[BronxAl]

Hi Ellis,

In the public forum: Thread: SAP/Reverse SAP - Ellis; Post #1 - you stated that "A word about "weighting" our SAP counts. (we multiply 1's by 1, 2s by 2, 3s by 4, 4s by 8 and 5+ by 8)."

Which is correct - "4's by 8" or "4+ (4 or mores) also get 4 points each"?

[BronxAl]

I just want to confirm the correct rule of math.

Edited May 1, 2015 by FrontAl

[Guest]

I just want to confirm the correct rule of math.

Right, they are both right. See, 4s occur at the same frequency as 5 or mores. 3s occur at the same frequency as 4 or mores.

So you can either count 1's, 2s 3s and 4+ using multipliers of 1,2,4 and 4

Or you can count 1's, 2s, 3s, 4s and 5+ using multipliers of 1,2,4, 8 and 8

I WAS going to have you track 5 events: 1's, 2s 3s 4s and 5+ but then I thought better of it.

It is the same problem we found with MDB+ when it tells you to bet a 4 will go yo 5+.

There are actually two problems with that bet.

1.) If you are wrong the first time you bet it - chances are the shoe will end before you get a chance to make a 2 bet.

And if you lose your 2 bet you are very unlikely to get a chance to make a 4 bet before the shoe ends.

Remember, there is an average of only 2 4 or mores per shoe. So you are better off to never start a progression that bets that a 4 will go to 5.

2.) Even if you are flat betting it is still not a good bet because: the longer runs go the less predictable their lengths become.

We have good predictability with 1's and 2s and 3s. But 4 or mores are much more iffy. It's better to stick with the surer bets and avoid trying to predict the length of long runs altogether.

We learned that lesson with MDB+. That is one of the reasons MDB+ has such a high hit rate.

So better to only track 1's, 2s, 3s and 4+ (4 or mores) and not try to differentiate between 4 and 4+.

But good catch! Shows you're paying attention.

[Guest]

Ellis thanks for starting the lesson on SAP/RSAP. Doing the SAP card makes perfect sense to me so looking forward to how to use this to bet.

In you post you mentioned about using SAP for NOR, when we learn the SAP/RSAP will we need to use NOR as well, I think the issue for me personally is having so much to learn and so many options when we turn up to the baccarat table, way2fast plays mainly MDB+ and OZ plays his way. As mentioned in previous posts does SAP/RSAP cover us if that's all we play? Long term of course i want to know NOR MDB+ and SAP/RSAP close to perfect but to start with will SAP?RSAP guide me exactly what to play and when? Could we all just use SAP/RSAP and be successful?

Thanks again for getting this started.

Right, I brought up that subject (NOR) and I had meant to say more about it but I forgot.

OK heres the deal: You never "need" to play NOR but sometimes you are better off playing NOR - Particularly NOR+.

See SAP is a low scoring system. +6 is a good average.

But NOR+ is a high scoring system and +20, even +30 is common in a good NOR shoe.

Well there is nothing better than the SAP count to tell you early on this is a great NOR+ shoe right here right now.

Suppose, for instance 2s are MC by a mile early on and 3s are second highest. That means 1's and 4+s are low.

Well what does OTB4L like? It likes 2s best and 3s second best.

What does OTB4L dislike? Multiple 1's and 4+.

So, should you continue with SAP and shoot for +6?

Or should you switch to OTB4L U1D2 and shoot for +30???

See SAP sorta gives you the best of both worlds as long as you always keep all your options open.

Your next +30 shoe is right around the corner but only if you recognize it when you see it.

Remember that shoe Kachatz posted. Yes it was a GOOD 4D shoe. But it was a FANTASTIC OTB4L shoe:+40 or whatever.

That's why I keep saying: No matter how many systems you learn, NEVER forget NOR. It's your big money maker in the right shoe.

Edited May 1, 2015 by Ellis

[Guest]

I believe the answer is yes

MDB+ is perfect RSAP system

The most important thing is to understand and record the SAP Count correctly and then you know which events are Most Common (MC) and Least Common (LC)

So if you see an event that you know is most common (MC) that looks like occurring then you bet that it does

If you see that an event is least common is starting to occur then bet that it doesn't occur

That way you are using SAP to give you a high % bet better than 50/50

Use flat bet, 1,2 progression, or 1,2,3, or 1,2,4

So SAP can be a system in itself

As you say long term the goal is to learn everything.

The more you know the easier it is to find a way to beat the shoe more often

Very well said Brad!

See we played SAP as a 2Hi system for quite a while and averaged +11.

But then along game factory preshuffled cards and our average slipped to +6.

That's because back then we didn't know to go to RSAP against factory preshuffled. We only knew SAP.

Well SAP works great for regular cards because they strongly tend to work away from random.

Well that's what SAP bets on - away from random. It bets on the same thing NOR bets on except it knows how to select only the strongest bets.

So then along came factory preshuffled which are artificially random. That defeats both NOR and SAP.

BUT, it leaves the door wide open for MDB+ and RSAP which both basically bet the cards won't stray very far from random.

SAP bets against the LC and ON the MC.

RSAP does the exact opposite. It bets ON the LC and against the MC. It bets events will trend TOWARD their normal frequencies of occurrence - toward random.

We KNOW for a fact that works with preshuffled cards big time because MDB+ has the highest hit rate of all time.

So basically we have SAP for regular cards and RSAP for preshuffled.

"Basically" but not always.

Sometimes we get a highly biased shoe with preshuffled - like the 2nd shoe of the Vegas Crawl.

And sometimes we get a Random shoe with regular cards like my sample column here.

How do we know? - before it's too late.

When we see big disparity early on between LC and MC, fine - thats a SAP shoe.

When we see little or no disparity between LC and MC like the sample I posted, fine - that's an RSAP shoe.

Edited May 1, 2015 by Ellis

[Fedda]

So basically, we use our SAP-card to choose either SAP or RSAP and stick with it through the shoe until we hit our stop-loss or hopefully stop-win.

Or are there situations we would change back and forth within the shoe?

I've seen strong NOR/SAP-shoes that in the end sums up to a normal frequencies of occurrence, but the question is, how common are these? And what can we do? Take the loss and move on?

/Fredrik

[ddbcinti]

Ellis,

Does net betting use the principles of SAP or RSAP? Thanks. Just trying to understand the principles.

[ECD]

Ellis, giving the theory that pre-shuffled cards are shuffled in the way to support randomness, how will SAP/RSAP indicate what to bet? With SAP it shows you what is what is hitting the most and RSAP shows what is hitting the least, why would it matter if the pre-shuffled cards are random? Wouldn't the least hitting be a bias itself (Using your thinking)? At the very least, maybe it would be a good idea to focus on the two in the middle but even then with the random cards it really is unknown. If anyone is going to play the shoe using the random cards to their benefit, MDB+ is the way to go. In certain ways, NOR can beat pre-shuffled cards as well.

Very well said Brad!

See we played SAP as a 2Hi system for quite a while and averaged +11.

But then along game factory preshuffled cards and our average slipped to +6.

That's because back then we didn't know to go to RSAP against factory preshuffled. We only knew SAP.

Well SAP works great for regular cards because they strongly tend to work away from random.

Well that's what SAP bets on - away from random. It bets on the same thing NOR bets on except it knows how to select only the strongest bets.

So then along came factory preshuffled which are artificially random. That defeats both NOR and SAP.

BUT, it leaves the door wide open for MDB+ and RSAP which both basically bet the cards won't stray very far from random.

SAP bets against the LC and ON the MC.

RSAP does the exact opposite. It bets ON the LC and against the MC. It bets events will trend TOWARD their normal frequencies of occurrence - toward random.

We KNOW for a fact that works with preshuffled cards big time because MDB+ has the highest hit rate of all time.

So basically we have SAP for regular cards and RSAP for preshuffled.

"Basically" but not always.

Sometimes we get a highly biased shoe with preshuffled - like the 2nd shoe of the Vegas Crawl.

And sometimes we get a Random shoe with regular cards like my sample column here.

How do we know? - before it's too late.

When we see big disparity early on between LC and MC, fine - thats a SAP shoe.

When we see little or no disparity between LC and MC like the sample I posted, fine - that's an RSAP shoe.

[brad01]

Hey McVince I think with normal hand shuffle etc its very easy to see a MC and LC event so its obvious to bet on the MC and stay away from the LC

RSAP is little more difficult to visualise but when the casinos do what they do - manipulate the events to go against normal statistical occurrence - artificially random then they are taking away our ability to take advantage of bias - MC and LC

but as Ellis says random is a bias in itself so for this situation we will see a close to equal SAP count - all counts being close to equal then its in reverse - we wait till we see a bias start to occur - 2 or 3 events in close succession without others and then we suspect that the bias will not continue because the SAP count should equalise so we make those 2 or 3 successive events the LC and bet against them until the count equalises and then start again when it happens again.

Every other event during that time becomes the MC and so we are betting that any of those will occur before the LC.

I found it works for roulette pretty well so far too.

The casinos cant get away from 1 thing - no matter what they do the odds are always 50/50 minus commission or zeros.

In a way 4D is similar to RSAP as I see it because a close to zero count that moves slightly we are betting it will return to zero as we know that's what it will probably do ?

[ECD]

Thank you Brad. Very good explanation. But in my opinion, you are doing the same thing as you are doing with MDB+. Example... Three 3's which are predominant, you bet 2' and 4's which were not predominant. This is not a slight on anything. Brilliant theories which made a lot of people a lot of money.

Hey McVince I think with normal hand shuffle etc its very easy to see a MC and LC event so its obvious to bet on the MC and stay away from the LC

RSAP is little more difficult to visualise but when the casinos do what they do - manipulate the events to go against normal statistical occurrence - artificially random then they are taking away our ability to take advantage of bias - MC and LC

but as Ellis says random is a bias in itself so for this situation we will see a close to equal SAP count - all counts being close to equal then its in reverse - we wait till we see a bias start to occur - 2 or 3 events in close succession without others and then we suspect that the bias will not continue because the SAP count should equalise so we make those 2 or 3 successive events the LC and bet against them until the count equalises and then start again when it happens again.

Every other event during that time becomes the MC and so we are betting that any of those will occur before the LC.

I found it works for roulette pretty well so far too.

The casinos cant get away from 1 thing - no matter what they do the odds are always 50/50 minus commission or zeros.

In a way 4D is similar to RSAP as I see it because a close to zero count that moves slightly we are betting it will return to zero as we know that's what it will probably do ?

[BronxAl]

Ellis,

Thank you, for clarifying the tracking of 1's, 2s, 3s and 4+.

I have another question - Why do we need an OR column in our scorecard?

When the SAP counts of 1's are High or 2nd Highest we have a + OR Count and visa versa when 1's are Low or 2nd Lowest we have a - OR Count. Likewise, SAP covers the OT Counts having High 2’s meaning a + O/T Count and Low 2's, or No 2’s means a - O/T Count.

[brad01]

Hey McVince I wasn't trying to lecture you first of all just thinking out loud as it creates discussion and helps us to remember the theories when we go over them again and again.

I know you had good success with NOR because I read your posts before I joined

I think you are right in that MDB is exactly reverse SAP but I think because its a set of mechanical triggers that Ellis which work so well for certain card types then its more like its own system which deserves its own section

I guess this forum is more like a generalised system of SAP either normal or reverse giving us a high % hit rate with low max bets.

I really liked Ellis's reminder of how SAP can be used to help NOR but how NOR can be used to produce huge wins in the right circumstances - + 30, +40 etc

Sure MDB+ and SAP can produce higher percentage bets but they wont produce wins like the above .

But you know what sometimes we have to always remember the basics - repeats or opposites.

I'm always looking for the opportunity to just drop everything and play repeats or opposites next is nor, next is netbet, and maybe now MDB+ / SAP in conjunction

[bluetri]

Ellis,

Thank you, for clarifying the tracking of 1's, 2s, 3s and 4+.

I have another question - Why do we need an OR column in our scorecard?

When the SAP counts of 1's are High or 2nd Highest we have a + OR Count and visa versa when 1's are Low or 2nd Lowest we have a - OR Count. Likewise, SAP covers the OT Counts having High 2’s meaning a + O/T Count and Low 2's, or No 2’s means a - O/T Count.

Al, once again you are spot on. I think that the reason the OR is included is that few people will make the observation that you just made. It takes an UNDERSTANDING of these principles to get what you see. Unfortunately, many won't put in the long yards to get that intimate knowledge of the game. I don't blame people who want a quick fix, on the contrary. But, I do think that a deeper understanding of the game creates a more well rounded player, IMHO.

[ECD]

Brad, I never took it as being lectured. I liked your explanation.

Hey McVince I wasn't trying to lecture you first of all just thinking out loud as it creates discussion and helps us to remember the theories when we go over them again and again.

I know you had good success with NOR because I read your posts before I joined

I think you are right in that MDB is exactly reverse SAP but I think because its a set of mechanical triggers that Ellis which work so well for certain card types then its more like its own system which deserves its own section

I guess this forum is more like a generalised system of SAP either normal or reverse giving us a high % hit rate with low max bets.

I really liked Ellis's reminder of how SAP can be used to help NOR but how NOR can be used to produce huge wins in the right circumstances - + 30, +40 etc

Sure MDB+ and SAP can produce higher percentage bets but they wont produce wins like the above .

But you know what sometimes we have to always remember the basics - repeats or opposites.

I'm always looking for the opportunity to just drop everything and play repeats or opposites next is nor, next is netbet, and maybe now MDB+ / SAP in conjunction

[brad01]

I think many people already play sap without knowing maybe when they play s40 and they lose to a 2+ and 3's and 4's are running equal and last 2 events were 3's so bet next 3 goes to 4 (RSAP)

that's how s40 got its name? played like this it won 40 shoes in a row?

[Guest]

Hmm, I was going to start the SAP/RSAP discussion with SAP theory but then I thought maybe we don't need that. But now I see we do.

Some already get it pretty good while some don't at all. To play well, to select systems correctly and play them correctly we must have a good general overall understanding of how our systems get an advantage in a 50/50, supposedly random game.

So I'm going to start a SAP and General Baccarat Theory thread. But don't post on that thread either. Ask your questions on this thread. But nomatter how well you already understand our winning BTC theory, you'll learn something on the new thread.

I'm not going to get into how you play our various systems on the new thread, just my theory behind system design so I see no reason not to put the theory thread on the public forum for all to see. Watch for it.

[Guest]

Ellis,

Thank you, for clarifying the tracking of 1's, 2s, 3s and 4+.

I have another question - Why do we need an OR column in our scorecard?

When the SAP counts of 1's are High or 2nd Highest we have a + OR Count and visa versa when 1's are Low or 2nd Lowest we have a - OR Count. Likewise, SAP covers the OT Counts having High 2’s meaning a + O/T Count and Low 2's, or No 2’s means a - O/T Count.

Correct, it would seem that an O/R col is redundant and it mostly is once you understand the full meaning of high vs low 1's.

But an O/R col supports decisions on playing SAP vs RSAP as well as decisions on playing either SAP vs NOR in the shoe at hand.

It also tells us when we should drop all systems and just bet Repeats or Opposites.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Ellis

[brad01]

Hey Ellis Im sure Norm knew the O/R count backwards but he still kept one?

Even if you fully understand it and can pick it within a few plays is it not best to keep the count so you can visually see the pattern and at any 1 time you can see at a glance if O or R is favoured or if its neutral / exactly zero?

But I suppose if this section is all about SAP counts then we should focus on that and use the 1's to be able to tell us the count?

Too many counts can become too confusing?

[Guest]

Ellis, giving the theory that pre-shuffled cards are shuffled in the way to support randomness, how will SAP/RSAP indicate what to bet? With SAP it shows you what is what is hitting the most and RSAP shows what is hitting the least, why would it matter if the pre-shuffled cards are random? Wouldn't the least hitting be a bias itself (Using your thinking)? At the very least, maybe it would be a good idea to focus on the two in the middle but even then with the random cards it really is unknown. If anyone is going to play the shoe using the random cards to their benefit, MDB+ is the way to go. In certain ways, NOR can beat pre-shuffled cards as well.

Factory preshuffled cards aren't actually shuffled at all. When a casino does not want the standard boxed card order they must tell the card manufacturer what card order they DO want. Casinos track how well they do in shoes vs the card order of that shoe. So they have a huge amount of information on what card orders they do best with and they order their cards in those orders. At least in Vegas and Macau, casinos have found they do bet with random cards. Our definition of random is shoes that hit close to their normal frequencies of occurrence. They can be beat with RSAP just as we are currenrly beating them with MDB+.

So factory preshuffled cards are "fixed" cards and therefore SHOULD be illegal. But you'd be fighting City Hall.

Vegas and Macau have found that the closer their cards are to random frequency, the better they do.

That is why NOR does so poorly against Vegas and Macau cards. NOR functions on bias.

When all of the events are hitting their random frequencies of occurrence, there is no bias for NOR to take advantage of.

But, that sets the stage for RSAP and it sets the stage for MDB+.

Think about it. If cards are fixed to hit their normal frequencies of occurrence, you already know before the shoe even starts, about how many of each event there will be. So, when an event starts to occur too often (MC) you know to bet against that event. Just as, when an event is not occurring enough, (LC) you know to bet ON that event. We already know full well that this works extremely well from watching the hit rate of MDB+, the highest in the history of systems.

[Guest]

Hey Ellis Im sure Norm knew the O/R count backwards but he still kept one?

Even if you fully understand it and can pick it within a few plays is it not best to keep the count so you can visually see the pattern and at any 1 time you can see at a glance if O or R is favoured or if its neutral / exactly zero?

But I suppose if this section is all about SAP counts then we should focus on that and use the 1's to be able to tell us the count?

Too many counts can become too confusing?

Well there is no such thing as too much information UNLESS you can't keep it all in the time allotted. Of course in a touch game, you have all the time in the world. But even in a no touch game you have about 60 seconds per hand. Keeping a correct O/R count as well as correct SAP counts only takes about 5 or 6 seconds per hand once you've done it a couple times.

[Guest]

Ellis,

Does net betting use the principles of SAP or RSAP? Thanks. Just trying to understand the principles.

Well no:

SAP bets that events will stray away from their normal frequencies. (Regular cards)

RSAP bets that events will move TOWARD their NFOO. (Preshuffled)

Net betting is a different animal altogether. It bets that the 2 sides of a bias will occur about equaqlly -

like P vs B or O vs R or Otb4L vs TB4L.

Net betting is more of a luck thing.

SAP/RSAP is more of a mathematical thing.

[ddbcinti]

Thanks, Ellis, this information was helpful. I wasn't sure of what I was seeing with net betting.