Following runs

[Baccman]

If we go on every STR or ZZ run untill it ends afer 4 only if there was prior 5+ , and not if there is more 4s then 5+s, can we do better then 50 % on the long run ?

[Pando]

I have some statistics from my local casino which I propose applies to most others.

It doesn't exactly answer your question as you wrote it, but it is close.

I have computed statistics for over 200 shoes, and additional unwritten observations and playing records which show that

1) After a 4IAR or more, the likelihood of another 4IAR or more, before I see three x 3IAR's, in the same shoe, is 92%

2) The longer the IAR run is, the more likely another or multiple longer IAR's will occur

3) There were very few shoes (less than 2%) where there was only one 4IAR or more in the shoe

When I see a 4IAR or more, I play every 3IAR to become a 4IAR unless there have been three 3's staying 3 without going to a 4IAR.                                      In that case I find another shoe.

Sorry I do not have the same stats for ZZ runs but by observation, I suspect they are less reliable

But the way you have written the question, I would answer by saying probably yes.

Because playing the way I describe here wins almost 70% of all bets

The only thing to decide is whether to play the IAR's until the end or not. Some times I will see nothing longer than a 4IAR, in which case I break even on the sequence. The longer the first IAR sequence, the better.

Hope this helps

 

[avion]

Great post Pando, and backed up by stats that you diligently kept a record of.  It reminds me of a title for some program I heard about called......"Stats for Profit".  

[Pando]

Statsforprofits is part of BTC - I have loaded my shoes into the website and it does analysis of the shoes.

Its brilliant

[ECD]

1 hour ago, Pando said:

Statsforprofits is part of BTC - I have loaded my shoes into the website and it does analysis of the shoes.

Its brilliant

 

 

 

I assume that Statsforprofit is for the elite of BTC...Obviously, I am not rated amongst the favoured few LOL...You know what I always say..."You can't help bad luck".

I don't like this "elite" BS (no offence to you Pando)...But I'm thinking that it is time for me to disappear once again..."Who was that masked man?"...LOL 

 

Take care

Oz

[William Looi]

7 hours ago, ozscouser1 said:

I assume that Statsforprofit is for the elite of BTC...Obviously, I am not rated amongst the favoured few LOL...You know what I always say..."You can't help bad luck".

I don't like this "elite" BS (no offence to you Pando)...But I'm thinking that it is time for me to disappear once again..."Who was that masked man?"...LOL 

 

Take care

Oz

Do not go away stay on , say what you like to say , it is ok

[Baccman]

17 hours ago, Pando said:

I have some statistics from my local casino which I propose applies to most others.

It doesn't exactly answer your question as you wrote it, but it is close.

I have computed statistics for over 200 shoes, and additional unwritten observations and playing records which show that

1) After a 4IAR or more, the likelihood of another 4IAR or more, before I see three x 3IAR's, in the same shoe, is 92%

2) The longer the IAR run is, the more likely another or multiple longer IAR's will occur

3) There were very few shoes (less than 2%) where there was only one 4IAR or more in the shoe

When I see a 4IAR or more, I play every 3IAR to become a 4IAR unless there have been three 3's staying 3 without going to a 4IAR.                                      In that case I find another shoe.

Sorry I do not have the same stats for ZZ runs but by observation, I suspect they are less reliable

But the way you have written the question, I would answer by saying probably yes.

Because playing the way I describe here wins almost 70% of all bets

The only thing to decide is whether to play the IAR's until the end or not. Some times I will see nothing longer than a 4IAR, in which case I break even on the sequence. The longer the first IAR sequence, the better.

Hope this helps

 

I just checked 60 shoes using your rules and i got 93 %, now the question is is it better to stay on the run all the way

[Pando]

1 hour ago, Baccman said:

I just checked 60 shoes using your rules and i got 93 %, now the question is is it better to stay on the run all the way

Fantastic result Baccman, brilliant

Staying on the run is a bit subjective, in other words it depends on many factors

If the runs are only 4IAR, then I win 3 goes to 4, and loose 4 goes to 5, ie: even

If the run is 5IAR, then I win 2 bets and loose 1, so nett +1, and so on

So I look at the history of the runs to see how long they are, it usually a pretty good guide as to what will happen, mostly anyway

If they are already long, that will probably continue, but nothing is set in concrete.

Secondly I also look at my position in the shoe. Am I just starting the shoe, am I ahead, or way ahead

That will determine whether I stop the run, (at 5 for example) and take a 1 unit profit.

So I cannot give a definite answer except to say that you only loose the last bet when on the run.

So unless I have other factors to convince me otherwise (as above) I usually stay until then end

I have had some amazing runs, I think 18IAR is the most. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Baccman]

12 minutes ago, Pando said:

Fantastic result Baccman, brilliant

Staying on the run is a bit subjective, in other words it depends on many factors

If the runs are only 4IAR, then I win 3 goes to 4, and loose 4 goes to 5, ie: even

If the run is 5IAR, then I win 2 bets and loose 1, so nett +1, and so on

So I look at the history of the runs to see how long they are, it usually a pretty good guide as to what will happen, mostly anyway

If they are already long, that will probably continue, but nothing is set in concrete.

Secondly I also look at my position in the shoe. Am I just starting the shoe, am I ahead, or way ahead

That will determine whether I stop the run, (at 5 for example) and take a 1 unit profit.

So I cannot give a definite answer except to say that you only loose the last bet when on the run.

So unless I have other factors to convince me otherwise (as above) I usually stay until then end

I have had some amazing runs, I think 18IAR is the most. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Yes thats something like my question in first post. If we have more 4 then 5+ maybe we should bet it just for 1 unit. But if 5+s are stronger then 4s then we sholud stay on the run. And also it depends on tour position in the shoe.

[Pando]

Yes to both of those is a good conservative position

I do see shoes where all of the runs stop at 4 or 5

When I have time I want to chart the first IAR run in a shoe verses later IAR runs in a shoe

If it shows that there is a high percentage of shoes when the first IAR is a good indicator of later runs, then we are in great shape with this play

[avion]

Baccman and Pando, your posts here are invaluable.  Both showing how stats proven in certain types of shoes, helps everyone in their strategies to become knowledgeable in what to look for in a shoe.  

Oz I truly appreciate you and all that you share, but I honestly don't know where you are coming from regarding the "elite" aspect.  I use stats for profit here and it is sincerely an awesome tool to use.  

[avion]

For anyone that isn't aware how to access stats for profit.......click on the "browse" tab in the upper left of the forums page, and then look underneath the browse tab, and you will see 
"sub headings" and look all the way to the right and you will see the tab to click on "stats for profit".  Then you will enter your screen name and password for access to it.  There are some really good instructional videos on the forums, on how to use stats for profit.  

It is excellent and a worthwhile tool to use, in giving you highly important information to help everyone in many ways.  It's fun to be creative with it also.  

 

[avion]

You can also access stats for profit with a direct web link.........https://statsforprofits.com/sfp/        and then enter your username and password.

[trillion]

21 hours ago, Baccman said:

I just checked 60 shoes using your rules and i got 93 %, now the question is is it better to stay on the run all the way

Baccman, did you get 93% checking that  ZZ,s and Streaks betting that after 3 IAR  that it would go to 4 IAR or was this just betting on the Streak side of the shoe?????

[Baccman]

30 minutes ago, trillion said:

Baccman, did you get 93% checking that  ZZ,s and Streaks betting that after 3 IAR  that it would go to 4 IAR or was this just betting on the Streak side of the shoe?????

Its just for streaks....i wait 4+ and then i bet on every 3 that will go to 4+ untill i see 3 ×3 then i quit...its like pando said.... 93% of the time there was not 3 ×3 after first 4 +...i didnt checked ZZ but i think that they are not as reliable as streaks

[Baccman]

Ok,  we have 93 % winning triggers using this rule...i 60 shoes that i have tested it was 130 triggers and 122 of them won...that means that after first 4 + there was not 3×3 after it. If we were using 1 2 4 NP we would have won 122units and lose 8×7 = 56...that means 66 units for 60 shoes....some of this shoes were very short and sdnt had any trigger... if someone is happy with score he can play like this...Pando and i have same result from different shoes, it means that you sholud get same on tour shoes. NOW, big question is... do we need to stay on the run all the way...i think that we can use this rules...we can go on the run all the way if 4+ is stronger then 4, also go on the run if 4+ are not stronger but run have gone to 5....then do not bet if 3s are MC by 3 point spread and stop to bet when you see 3×3s.

Any oppinions ?

 

Baccman 

[Pando]

I like the idea of checking if 3's are MC and betting accordingly, and to follow all the way OTR if 4+ is stronger than 4

Good thinking Baccman

[Pando]

In shoes where there has already been a 7IAR, and we expect another long IAR run, maybe we can play the 1-3-2-6 progression

For illustration, assume a bankroll of 10 units

1) First bet 1 unit, if loose -1 unit, [bankroll 9 units], if win +1 unit, bankroll 11 units

2) Assuming winning the previous bet, next bet 3 units, if loose -3 units, [bankroll 8 units], if win +3 units, bankroll now 14 units

3) Assuming winning the previous bet, next bet 2 units, if loose -2 units [bankroll 12 units] if win +2 units, bankroll now 16 units

4) Assuming winning the previous bet, next and final bet 6 units, if loose -6 units [ bankroll 10 units], if win +6 units, bankroll now 22 units

You can see the maximum risk is only 2 units

The possible outcomes are losing 1 unit, losing 2 units, winning 2 units, winning zero units, or winning 12 units

I think its a really good option when there are consistent long streaks in a shoe

 

[Baccman]

Personally i dont like to use NP. Would be happy if we can work our way with flatbet and achive better then 50 % and like that we can use larger units with less risk or we can use loop 1 2 since you said that this way wins almost 70% of all bets

Edited August 11, 2016 by Baccman

[Pando]

Fair enough Baccman

That's how I usually play (flat or 2 3 loop) and yes that wins very well around 70%

I was just thinking aloud really

[wolfat]

On 10/8/2016 at 9:01 PM, Baccman said:

Ok,  we have 93 % winning triggers using this rule...i 60 shoes that i have tested it was 130 triggers and 122 of them won...that means that after first 4 + there was not 3×3 after it. If we were using 1 2 4 NP we would have won 122units and lose 8×7 = 56...that means 66 units for 60 shoes....some of this shoes were very short and sdnt had any trigger... if someone is happy with score he can play like this...Pando and i have same result from different shoes, it means that you sholud get same on tour shoes. NOW, big question is... do we need to stay on the run all the way...i think that we can use this rules...we can go on the run all the way if 4+ is stronger then 4, also go on the run if 4+ are not stronger but run have gone to 5....then do not bet if 3s are MC by 3 point spread and stop to bet when you see 3×3s.

Any oppinions ?

 

Baccman 

I would like to put here my two cents...

I don't know how many 4s or 4s+ you find in your shoes, we can assume that you can find, on avg, 3-4? so its difficult, unless you find an early long run, to have a reliable SAP count to compare them.  IMO it should be better track your own stats about 4s and 4s+, after some events, I think you should be amazed about patterns you will see...

About not betting on runs when 3s are high or MC, this is extremely savvy and safe. 

I have not detailed stats on 3s going 4s after a 4s/+ but since Pando talked about it, I gave it a smart eye and mostly is a pattern that holds, win some money with it.

...but I have a question for Pando: when you get the first 4s or 4s+, you continue looking for other long runs? I know you assume that at this point 3s are low, so it's a good idea attack for 3iar going 4, but do you have stats at regard? thanks

A

 

[douglasb53]

Good question Wolfat . I was also wondering if you win your 1st  3 goes to 4 after you see a 4+IAR do you bet that multiple times when you see other 3IAR's  or are you done?

[wolfat]

7 minutes ago, douglasb53 said:

Good question Wolfat . I was also wondering if you win your 1st  3 goes to 4 after you see a 4+IAR do you bet that multiple times when you see other 3IAR's  or are you done?

This is also my question...

I guess that if 3s are low/LC you should continue, anyway you need also to look at last events. It happened to me that, in a shoe full of 3s till half then switched to 4s+ that heavily hit in the last part of the shoe. So... be ready to adapt your play!

[Baccman]

Results that i have got are from fully mechanical test...i was waiting first 4+ and then when that run is over  i play that every 3 will go to 4 +, and i do not stop on that event, i play that every 3 will go to 4+ untill the end of the shoe, unless there is 3 ×3 then i quit. Didnt pay attention if 3 is MC or LC i just played mechanical , and i got same results like Pando. To me is interesting that we have same result from diferent shoes. Now i am trying to see is there any way to increse this % 

[johnnycs1]

I heard of a guy , few years back....that made a ton of money (Vegas) ...that waited for 3 IAR, and bet a 124 , that it would not go 4 ,5 or 6..and when it did , flat bet the run , until it gave out ! He found the method in some cheapy gambling book . My friend , seen ,  the method in action ! And the money his friend won using this mechanical system.

Incidentally , this friend that told me about this 3 IAR method...we met over 25 years ago , at a baccarat table , in Vegas, when we both realized we were both using a method that we purchased from Ellis......way back over 25 years ago !!! The method did not work for either Tim or I or other people that we knew who had purchased !! But , credit to Ellis , I asked for a refund and got a refund , maybe a week later !! Think Ellis was still living in Saratoga , upstate NY.

I have not played it....but I have monitored , the tote board at my local casino , 2 miles down the highway . It is a winner , about 96 % of the time , for how I would play it....a hit & run....pick up 1 black unit , stop loss of 3.........and out of there !! All I am interested in ....is a 1 unit win ! Couple times a week !

I recall reading on some forum , a stat , that 82 % of the time a 3 will not to 4 . Considering a 1 day trip to Vegas , up in the morning , back on a late night flight and check this out at the Palazoo Stadium Bac Consoles , that have a 5 dollar minimum , see how it does in actually play .