You guys are wasting your life

[dweezel7]

I really don't want to rain anyones parade, but there is no way to beat the casino playing a negative expectation game. No way, no how.

I spent 6 months trying to do it. Even if you find something that has promise, you cannot get a large enough sample size to count on your method. Unless you want to spend 8 years breathing carcinogens from that Taiwanese guy on your left.

Just got banned from "Maverick Marks" site, where he was so bold as to guarantee everyone would make their $1,000 fee back in a month. Didn't happen. Not one person made their money back.

I called him on it and he banned me.

You may notice that there are no "professional" negative expectation game players. That would be because it is impossible to win. The past has no influence on the future. See gamblers fallacy:

Still dreaming of that yacht paid for by Steve Winn?

This guy may test your system, method, technique, or magic bean:

Let me know when your method makes it past 100,000 shoes. I'll alert the media.

Edited January 17, 2011 by Keith Smith

[ECD]

Well, we are not responsible for what "Maverick" promises or who he bans. Guess who taught "Maverick"???

6 months eh? So you are a rank amateur beginner who thinks there is no solution because you couldn't find it in 6 months. Sorry but it just isn't that easy. And what formal training did you bring to the table? Math degrees? Calculus? Statistical Analysis? Professorships? Write any books? Hell no! Just went to casinos for six months and got beat and gave up. End of story. Well casinos are a lot smarter than that.

I have all of the above and have been barred from far more casinos than you've ever been in or even heard of. I played full time for many years; went 3 years in A.C. W/O a losing day; conducted hundreds of public casino exhibitions in front of audiences in the thousands W/O ever losing. My gaming books have outsold all others combined.

We have our own test facilities, thank you.

So, when you see 20 tens come out of the dealer shoe in a row in an AC 8 deck BJ game, you still think the cards are random. You think two shuffles randomizes 8 decks of cards. Just because you couldn't make sense of it in 6 months you think there is no sense to be made of it. You give up too easy. How's your real life job going? Quit that yet?

Edited January 17, 2011 by ECD

[MVSeahog]

I really don't want to rain anyones parade, but there is no way to beat the casino playing a negative expectation game. No way, no how.

I spent 6 months trying to do it.

A whole six months, eh? I'm sorry you couldn't learn it all that fast.

Just got banned from "Maverick Marks" site, where he was so bold as to guarantee everyone would make their $1,000 fee back in a month. Didn't happen. Not one person made their money back.

I called him on it and he banned me.

No, you were banned from Mark's site for being a persistant pain and a major disruption for the people who did want to learn something.

Several people HAVE made their money back, but they weren't the ones who tried to do it in the two week extravaganza.

If you're convinced that you can't make any money playing baccarat, don't play it. That's pretty simple and I believe that's also what they told you at Mark's site.

I'm sure you'll be more than welcome to learn good plays here if you're up to it. It's called a team effort to make this work.

Good luck with your play whichever way you decide to go.

MVS

[Sinatra1]

Let me get this right ! If you have it all figured out that it is impossible to beat baccarat then what the hell do you keep coming back to this site and other bac site like Marks. Stop wasting your time unless your point is to just be a pain in the ass which is what I think your real enjoyment is. If I thought it was a waste of time playing bac I certainly wouldn't frequently continue to visit baccarat sites. We respect your opinion now just GO AWAY !

[dweezel7]

clifton! such language. By the way, I have a bachelors degree in physics with a minor in mechanical engineering.

why do I keep coming back? Because I'm just as delusional as you guys are. I am snapping out of it, and when completely lucid, will never bother your fantasy again. the only thing I ever wanted was some proof that anything works. thats what i asked for here when i joined in july and thats what i asked for from maverick. thanks to seahog for being the only player at marks site that had the guts to post numbers. no proof, but at least numbers. I think he said 283 shoes with a 10 unit per shoe average. What are the numbers now seahog?

Anyway when someone finally posts proof here or anywhere else, I will go away. Hows that for motivation?

contrary to popular opinion, I get no pleasure from shooting down other peoples fantasies. I have wasted a lot more time that 6 months on this, I just have spent the last 6 months concentrating on Bac.

Of course, the owners and administrators of this site are angry with me, but I must insist on proof.

Proof is not: "i made 53 units in one shoe", but verifiable, independent proof, with at least 100,000 shoes. "We have our own test facilities, thank you." is what clifton said. that's like Merck testing Vioxx. Might be a little conflict of interest.

Imspirit has no agenda, and he has done a tremendous amount of research for no pay. yet he has found exactly zero systems that work better than betting bank all the time.

does anyone here have the guts to post real numbers? Number of shoes played, average win-loss per shoe. Please, no bullshit. Have a nice day.

[MVSeahog]

thanks to seahog for being the only player at marks site that had the guts to post numbers. no proof, but at least numbers. I think he said 283 shoes with a 10 unit per shoe average. What are the numbers now seahog?

Dweezel,

Luckily I have some free time tonight.

Lots of people posted up lots of shoes both here and at Mark's place. Wins, losses, the whole thing. You never bothered to look at them I guess.

Current play is 376 shoes. 85.9% winning rate. That's 323 wins and 53 losses. The net on the shoes is averaging 9.43 now. Yes, I do keep very detailed play records and continually track multiple system plays to confirm what the numbers are showing me.

Anyway when someone finally posts proof here or anywhere else, I will go away. Hows that for motivation?

No need to be a martyr. No need to go away. Civil discussion is always good for the game.

Proof is not: "i made 53 units in one shoe", but verifiable, independent proof, with at least 100,000 shoes. "We have our own test facilities, thank you." is what clifton said. that's like Merck testing Vioxx. Might be a little conflict of interest.

Well, I figure if a system play holds up well for 25 shoes, I can continue to test it up to 100 shoes. At 100 shoes it's time to go "Live Fire" and put my money where my mouth is. You won't need 100,000 computer generated shoes to convince yourself to play it or dump it.

Imspirit has no agenda, and he has done a tremendous amount of research for no pay. yet he has found exactly zero systems that work better than betting bank all the time.

Imspirit has an excellent site and he's basically proving (mathematically) what we all know anyway. Purely mechanical systems break even eventually at best! No news there, but it is nice to have his numbers. It is very impressive for sure.

does anyone here have the guts to post real numbers? Number of shoes played, average win-loss per shoe. Please, no bullshit. Have a nice day.

Hmm, I think I just did a few paragraphs ago. But then, I'm a bit more outgoing than most players who simply want to win at the table and go home quietly.

I don't really know what more you would want. The shoes are posted. The numbers are up and I see the same people posting up the same shoes every few days from previous online plays. You can't fake a BetPhoenix shoe when you know a dozen of your buddies probably played the same one.

Also, it doesn't take guts to post up real numbers. I've done it here and in several other sites. Many others have too. You must be running on some different forums or something. The problems start when you post up any winning numbers and then nobody believes you anyway, so you just say "To Hell with it" and go back to browsing the forums after your nightly winning session. Why put up with all the negativity?

So, you're more than welcome to try to learn something or just argue semantics and mathematics. We're not "pie in the sky" dreamers. We're players who are continually working towards a common goal. If I didn't like it here, I'd move on to someplace else where my ideas could be reinforced. Haven't really found another spot yet!

Good luck on the tables, wherever you're playing.

MVS

[ECD]

Dweezel, We have been posting shoe results, trip results, and group trip reports here for years with hundreds posted. Since we often play together no one is going to lie about results.

The computer results of 100,000 or a million RG shoes with any purely mechanical system is a complete waste of valuable time because ALL mechanical systems break even over time.

We select systems according to morning card prep biases, table biases and shoe color biases which RG's don't have but real casinos DO have. We are also big on cash mgt. We do all testing against real casino shoes. We have thousands. But even testing against a pile of real shoes is mostly a waste of time because you have taken those shoes out of context and therefore lose your biggest advantage. Actual casino results is the ONLY way to know for sure.

Look, go annoy somebody else. You have no idea of what you are talking about and you are a complete waste of time. Nobody cares what someone with six months of experience thinks. Go out and use your wits to beat a few casinos. Then maybe someone will listen to you. But you can't can you. Because you have no clue how to do it. And with your attitude, you never will.

[Keith Smith]

If you follow a normal distribution of Baccarat Events in a random game all of the events, e.g 1s, 2s,3s,4s, 5 or more in a row when plotted will in fact give you a bell curve.

In fact most all with fall within 3 standard deviations on either side of the central tendency. As shown below if you listen to party line of statisticians who think they know casino gambling, this justifies all games and end of story to them.

We endlessly hear show us 100,000 shoe we can beat. I can't, the games are over an unspecified time frame and out of context with no days or any other associated data. And are so to speak perfect. While science is the measure of all things, the science has to be an accurate reflection of what is occuring, so your question or request of shoes is a valid one. But before that you must recognize that a population is not required ( the definition as it relates to statistics is explained below). Again the 100,000 shoes have no relevance on what happens in the real world casino and we have no frame or other data except that it is random, usually computer generated games. I can't beat a bell curve distribution yet unless i can bet an endless Fibonacci sequence of bets which no casino will let me. And to that end Why? Becasue that's how you beat it.

[ATTACH]2024[/ATTACH]

Of course they miss that the game changes due to process variation that is increased and decreased by casino manipultion, normal process drift and any other factors which we may be aware of.

We have been following casino profits over the years from table games and take rates. Well their take rates from Blackjack and Baccarat are beyond what the standard deviation model will allow. Lets see if it is a 1% game, how can they make 20%. You don't need to be a statistician to rationalize that something is going on. Are the dealers lucky, players that bad?

If you talk to a casino they will report yes its because blackjack players don't play Basic Strategy and Baccarat players pick the wrong side. Oh Ok. Look, they look at a table game the same way they look at a slot machine, how can we manipulate this to have a bigger profit margin. This is where assignable cause variation comes into the process (see the graphic and the highlighted green area). In most business, manufacturing and service industries you are using statistical models to eliminate waste and variation by automating processes and insuring a small level of variation and a minimum mistakes or errors. any variation should fall within the realm of the bell curve and a 1.5 sigma shift of it over time. Makes sense less errors and the more profit the quicker you get things to market and numerous other benefits.

But suppose that Ok if I deal a totally random game of Baccarat or Blackjack I can win at a rate of 1%. But suppose someone comes along and now runs a computer simulation and the one deck blackjack game (which is pretty close to random) and the bell curve is normal, yet a statistical model shows a gain for the player if you play a certain way. What do they need to introduce to change the game? Assignable cause game variation that throws off the normal distribution. In this case of blackjack specifically the normal distribution of high cards and low cards. That was step one and step II keep everybody playing the same way. Well not to belabor Blackjack but how did the casinos do with that? Pretty much everyone plays the same way still basic strategy, and the profits for Blackjack are they at 1 % - 5% or 20% maybe someone can look. I know one thing the're a hell of a lot higher than the mathematical advantage allows and far beyond the statistical standard deviation. Why because of assignable cause variation that they implanted on purpose to beat card counter, we here know beyond any doubt what they do and exploit it.

Is it a simple always do the same thing model like card counting was ? No, which is what spoiled everyone. Ian Anderson in his book on blackjack joking said pick any of the count strategies, "They all work". But now, you have got to the find the table that has just the right amount of variation (in this case clumping frequency)from random that is easily exploitable by NBJ and believe me it is worth the wait and search.

Any way on to baccarat. We are where we are at Baccarat right before we published NBJ in the early 90s. Ok so I mentioned a population and your 100 games. I put in these definitions and examples so you don't think this is a bunch of jibberish.

You don't need a population to find assignable cause variation in a process or a sample.

[ATTACH]2026[/ATTACH]

I go to Hollywood casino a few days before everyone comes down and I start tracking some games for a few days. I am constantly calling Ellis telling him what is going on. He says ok stop looking and play a few games. What I noticed and tracked continued and translated to winning. The bell curve is skewed, not outwards but to the center of the distribution more. In other words there are too many 1 and 2 in a rows and not enough 3 or mores. This means they are dealing too many opposites. How long has it been going on? In a sample of 5 shoes a day for a few days and a test literally of 1 shoe every night I have never lost a shoe by playing system 40. The bell curve looks like a compressed one when it is used to track events. We see too many short runs consistently over a week.

[ATTACH]2027[/ATTACH]

Ok now at that point what happens, Ellis come on up. When Ellis cam up we played I forget and to be honest WTF cares at this point we have found a bias in the game that was an assignable cause variation. What was the cause... to be honest who cares!!! It happens to much for it to be in the realm of standard deviation. How do I know at the end of the 4 day session I played 16 shoes and won every god damn one of them. That is impossible unless you have some inside information my friend.

Did they change the game? Your god damn right they did. The team went back again, told them we were coming ( a stupid move) and the games are oddly short of chop and have long runs dispersed in runs of twos and threes.

This is what we do we look for assignable cause variation and have different approaches for each bell curve distro. Is it hard... damn right you have to think, have patiences and be able to change . You have to be able to realize when it is a trend or assignable cause or just a random event with no significance. Most players think you can have it on every shoe in every casino on every night. If you don't believe me, go watch the high stakes Asian players, they think they can beat any shoe and every shoe and predict ties. I can't give you an always do this solution like card counting but I can tell you that you can learn how to do this.

Now I just spent my entire evening on this public forum which should tell you something because in the past I usually don't care, but for once ( and this will increase sales I'm sure) I did.

It would be easy to sell Casino ads, I don't. Hype easy Systems like other s do I don't. Ellis and my self concentrate on our private members and friends and we are the best at what we do. and as I tell everyone who challenges us, we will be in the Casino bring your cash we will bring ours.

regards

Images from

Villanova University Black Belt Six Sigma Hand Book and

Elementary Statistics Picturing the World Larson & Farber

Edited January 20, 2011 by Keith Smith

[ECD]

Well Dweezels complaint is that he paid his $1000 and then didn't make it back in 2 months or whatever was promised. Dweezel said nobody did. But I personally know 3 that did and are playing just fine.

But the teacher's promise assumes that the student does his fair share. I suspect that there-in lies the problem. I've looked in on Mark's system and I think it is a reasonable way to play. I posted a similar approach at BF. The problem is that most at BF wouldn't know a winning approach if it fell on their head.

The system I posted said keep a running OR count. An OR count can only do 3 things:

It can favor + = you bet opposites

It can favor - = you bet repeats

It can favor 0 = you bet against the count

The Maverick system is the same except it uses an RD1 count rather than an OR count. Big Whip! You are still betting WITH the shoe at hand rather than against it and that is how you win.

Yet I'm sure nobody at BF is using that system to win.

Why? Because it requires that the student do HIS part. Most think they are going to learn by some sort of osmosis W/O lifting a finger them selves. Did you do your part?

1. Did you read and understand the rules? Probably not. I note one player posted at the Maverick site that "We are lost W/O Mark" Why is that? The rules are posted. Sample games are posted. Can you not read? Can you not follow a sample shoe? This certainly is not the teacher's fault. He's there to teach you how to play Baccarat. He didn't figure on having to teach you how to read first.

2. Did you practice at home until you could play the system fluently W/O error? Not likely. Can we blame the teacher for that? Not hardly. Who's fault is that???

3. I have said a zillion times if you don't know the rules you will lose. The dealer's job is to beat you any way he can. Do you know all the rules of Baccarat perfectly? I doubt it. Is that the teachers fault? The rules are posted at every casino in the land.

4. The teacher can't finance the student. The student must be adequately financed. $1000 is ten black units. You should be able to do that in 2 or 3 shoes FLAT BETTING. Oh, you couldn't afford it. Is that the teacher's fault? Get a job.

Before you go off half cocked blaming the teacher, take a long hard look in the mirror. Others did it. Why can't you???

Edited January 20, 2011 by ECD

[ECD]

Baccarat is NOT a negative expectation game. It is dead even plus commission. You can't count commission any more than you can count waitress tips. It only averages 1.25% of the money bet. The game is dead even. The idea then is to quit while you are ahead. That takes discipline. THAT is the problem.

[wolfat]

As I have some time to spend in this period I want to tell my opinion in all of this stuff.

I'm playing bac from several years and enter in a casino for the 1st time in oct, 1986; this doesn't mean nothing in itself but I can say that I'm successful at this game. I've had from the beginning a professional approach, disciplined, not greedy, sticking to my pre-stated MM plan. I can't say that I've always won but I won consistently much more than I've lost and this is the most important thing.

Then I met Ellis and his private forum where I learnt a lot, much more than in many past years of study and knowledge of the game, this work is never done!

I think that the biggest error that "math men" do is to consider a shoe a "perfect sample"; this is wrong, where the hand of a man is involved the game is biased some way, also assuming that casinos doesn't effect shuffling (lol). If the shoe is biased you can take advantage of this.

Every shoe is weak somewhere, take advantage of it and don't be greedy! Are you able to get 2-4 units and exit the shoe?

Do you want a winning system? Here it is:

- wait for at least 8 events;

- check 2s and 3s only;

- choose that one is more above avg: if 2s are high bet opposite after a 2 in a row; if 3s are high bet for a repeat after a 2 in a row and opposite after a 3 in a row:

- prog is 1, 1.5

- exit the shoe at +2/-4

Let me know if you don't win nothing with this!

In the last months I decided to be much more selective with my plays: if you choose the better conditions SHORT TERM and leave, you can attack every shoe with success! Every shoe is weak at a certain point; with some skill you'll beta it!

Patience, discipline, knowledge and you'll be a winner!

ciao

andrea

Edited January 20, 2011 by wolfat

[wolfat]

...one more thing:

WHY should we waste our life when we're doing something interesting and (often) amusing?

How many people spend money for playing golf even if they'll never be another Tiger Woods?

And not talk about cars or bikes!

[ECD]

Not everyone is cut out to be a gambler. Gambling is the art of matching wits with your opponent whether your opponent be another player (Poker) or the casino (Bac and BJ). This excites one type of person while it fills others with dread.

Successful gamblers have learned to live in the REAL world. They react to the ACTUAL facts surrounding the moment. They react to what IS happening, not to some computer programmer's idea of what SHOULD be happening but never is in actual fact.

Before I wrote NBJ a team of selected professionals gathered the real statistics surrounding BJ for three years. None of the real statistics (empirical data) came even close to the published mathematical statistics.

For instance: You think that one of your greatest advantages in BJ is that you can double down when you think you have good cards while the dealer can't. WRONG! Actual statistics clearly show that players overall lose money doubling. They also lose money overall splitting, insuring, and surrendering. Why because they are taught to look at only two things: their hand thus far vs. the dealer up card. They totally ignore the MOST important data. What is running right now, highs or lows. They also ignore the absolute fact that the dealer is just as likely to have a low card in the hole as a high card. They "assume" the hole card is a ten. The odds of a ten are only 4 out of 13. The successful gambler never "assumes" anything. He bases his decision on the facts of the moment.

But, you say, your odds of getting a low are exactly the same as your odds of getting a high so why bother looking. WRONG! Because of the way the game it presented by the all knowing casino, highs follow highs and therefore lows follow lows FAR more often than they randomly should. Casinos KNOW this. THAT is the REAL world. Successful gamblers live in the REAL world. Losers live in a make believe lemming world. The casinos bank on that fact.

That is just one small example. So, is it a negative expectation game? YES, if you are a lemming and you keep doing exactly what the casino wants you to do. No, if you use your God given wits and live in the real world.

So you quit after 6 months of doing exactly what the casino wants you to do. Good! For you, you made a good decision.

Edited January 21, 2011 by ECD

[BaCcArAt KiNg]

I really don't want to rain anyones parade, but there is no way to beat the casino playing a negative expectation game. No way, no how.

I spent 6 months trying to do it.

No offense but you are a slow learner by baccarat standard.

Give yourself another six months.

If still no improvement after that, quit playing the game.

Baccarat is not for you. Be true to yourself.

You like baccarat but baccarat doesn’t like you.

Even if you find something that has promise, you cannot get a large enough sample size to count on your method.

I am playing baccarat for the last four years.

I have my own approach/system back then before I joined this forum last 2009.

I paid the lifetime membership offered before and discovered/learned my flaws for the last three years playing the game.

Since then, I am winning more shoes than losing on a consistent basis.

You do not need a “large†sample size to count on your method.

Like what Andrea (Wolfat) said, know the shoe’s bias.

You don’t need 100,000 shoe sample size to know that.

Sorry, I forgot. You are a slow learner by baccarat standard.

Don’t worry. Everything on this forum is spoonfeeded to you.

Systems, bet sizes, sample shoes (both online & live table games), playing experiences. You name it. It’s all here.

All you have to do is have the right learning attitude.

Unless you want to spend 8 years breathing carcinogens from that Taiwanese guy on your left.

In my country of play, we have non-smoking areas and non-smoking tables.

You do not have these on your area?

BK

[ECD]

Ha, I made the mistake of lighting a cigarette at a BJ table at Hollywood, PA. What the hell, there was an ashtray on the table. An irate cop descended on me. How was I to know the little blue light over the table meant no smoking? The dealer didn't even know. They were pretty nice about it though. They reduced my sentence to life W/O parole. I'm 70 but very healthy. Can still swim an Olympic size pool underwater. I'll probably outlive the cop - if I don't drown.

Edited January 21, 2011 by ECD

[wolfat]

In Europe all casinos are smoke free!

I'll wait for you guys!

ciaooooooooooooooooooooooo

[daytrader]

As I have some time to spend in this period I want to tell my opinion in all of this stuff.

I'm playing bac from several years and enter in a casino for the 1st time in oct, 1986; this doesn't mean nothing in itself but I can say that I'm successful at this game. I've had from the beginning a professional approach, disciplined, not greedy, sticking to my pre-stated MM plan. I can't say that I've always won but I won consistently much more than I've lost and this is the most important thing.

Then I met Ellis and his private forum where I learnt a lot, much more than in many past years of study and knowledge of the game, this work is never done!

I think that the biggest error that "math men" do is to consider a shoe a "perfect sample"; this is wrong, where the hand of a man is involved the game is biased some way, also assuming that casinos doesn't effect shuffling (lol). If the shoe is biased you can take advantage of this.

Every shoe is weak somewhere, take advantage of it and don't be greedy! Are you able to get 2-4 units and exit the shoe?

Do you want a winning system? Here it is:

- wait for at least 8 events;

- check 2s and 3s only;

- choose that one is more above avg: if 2s are high bet opposite after a 2 in a row; if 3s are high bet for a repeat after a 2 in a row and opposite after a 3 in a row:

- prog is 1, 1.5

- exit the shoe at +2/-4

Let me know if you don't win nothing with this!

In the last months I decided to be much more selective with my plays: if you choose the better conditions SHORT TERM and leave, you can attack every shoe with success! Every shoe is weak at a certain point; with some skill you'll beta it!

Patience, discipline, knowledge and you'll be a winner!

ciao

andrea

Andrea,

Can you explain to me your definition of an event.

I will give it a whirl and tell me if im right or wrong.

B

PPPP

BBBBBBB

P

BB

BBBBBB

PPPP

B

Are those above 8 events?

Thank you in advance!

[wolfat]

yes they are!

an event is like a 1s, 2s, 3s and so on...

try to be selective with your bets...

ciao

[TomM]

Ha, I made the mistake of lighting a cigarette at a BJ table at Hollywood, PA. What the hell, there was an ashtray on the table. An irate cop descended on me. How was I to know the little blue light over the table meant no smoking? The dealer didn't even know. They were pretty nice about it though. They reduced my sentence to life W/O parole. I'm 70 but very healthy. Can still swim an Olympic size pool underwater. I'll probably outlive the cop - if I don't drown.

Ha, I thought a blue light mean't there is a special on fruit of the looms on aisle 12.

[Reaper]

Baccarat is NOT a negative expectation game. It is dead even plus commission. You can't count commission any more than you can count waitress tips. It only averages 1.25% of the money bet. The game is dead even. The idea then is to quit while you are ahead. That takes discipline. THAT is the problem.

No, the casino takes its banker-commission (or player-hand advantage) despite anyone's discipline.