NOR Video Part 1 System 40 defined and tweaked and now Part II added

[d0ma1n]

Hi Keith,

I noticed there is a special price if purchased both the Video at $ 239.95.

I just purchased the first video at $149.95, so if I purchase the next video, do i just need to pay, $ 90 ?

If yes, then how can i make the payment to you ? Please advice.

Can't wait !!

[kachatz1]

Joeystyle and LENNY181 have both reminded me that I promised to post a few things that realy help me out when playing Baccarat, after I returned from the seminar.

Sorry it took so long. BOTH OF THESE THINGS I DISCUSSED IN FRONT OF THE GROUP AT THE SEMINAR.

Let me say at the outset that neither is directly related to NOR, but these two things have to do more with the simple math of baccarat and are complementary to NOR play, just like the O/R count and the SAP count.

1) I keep track of the numerical "score" of the Player and Banker hands after each hand has been played. Example : After hand # 1, I record that the P has a 3, and the Bank has won with a 4 ( 4 beats 3)...After hand # 2, I note that the P has a 6, but was again beaten by the B which recorded a 7....and on and on, for the entire shoe...

HOW DOES THIS HELP ME, AND WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE? To me, it makes a lot-of-difference, as over the course of the shoe, if I see one side is getting a lot of 8's and 9's, and the other side is getting a lot of low 0's, 1's and 2's I will tend to use this information towards calculating my larger bets. Exactly how I use this I will explain below in (2)

2) When i play Baccarat, I am a firm believer that the longer I play any given session ( even just paper betting and recording the results), the more likely that the basic math of baccarat will come into play. Ellis has writtten a lot about the stats of a typical shoe ( so many 1 events in a row, so many 2 events in a row, so many 3 events in a row, etc), and there are numerous posts throuhout the forum about the exact probabilities of each event.

We all come to learn that no two shoes are exactly the same, but we will in the course of our play observe a fair # of shoes in which the number of 1-in-a-row events, and the number of 2-in-a-row events ( like PP or BB), etc. come out pretty even with the statistical norm. Again, lots of posts on this subject in the forum.

So how I exploit this is simple. If in the first shoe I notice that there is a shortage of 1-in-a-rows, or 2-in-a-rows, etc. as compared to the normal stats of the game, or that P has far exceeded B in the actual number of results ( or vice-versa B is way ahead of the P's), in the next shoe I will be looking for the Oddities that really stand out to "reverse course" and get back towards a more normal distibution.

I call this REGRESSION TO THE MEAN, or simply, a return towards a more normal distribution of events.

Important to understand, that every shoe has it's quirks, so this is not a method that I rely on solely to steer my betting strategies, and NOR tells us to "follow the shoe" in current play. By the same token, the longer and further away something gets from the normal distribution of events, the more-and-more likely I BELIEVE it will "tend towards" a return back in the direction of the normal distribution of events, when factoring in ALL PLAYS SO FAR IN A GIVEN SESSION/ SERIES OF SHOES PLAYED OVER THE COURSE OF PLAYING 2,3,4 OR MORE SHOES IN A ROW.

This may sound "difficult" to undestand, so I will clarify it as follows:

Any good bac player learns that it is very valuable to keep their scorecards, and go back over them to see what they could have done better...so what I do is after each shoe is completeIi record on the top of the card the number of how many times a given event occured ( like 1-in -a-row, 2,3,4,5,6 etc-in-a-row, as well as P and B totals). After the second shoe played, I record the same info, but I also add to that shoe's results the results from shoe #1 for a cumulative total. After shoe 3, I add in the results from shoe 1 and 2, et. etc. for as long as my session lasts.

I am no math professor, but I can assure you that the longer you play in a given session, the more likely the cumulative results will parallel the theoretical results ( statistical probabilities of an event occuring, as described above...read all about these in posts on this forum...).So while shoe #1 may have had a lot of , say, 2-in-a-row events, even way out of the normal 25% probability, by the time you are done playing for the night and you have added up the results from all shoes played during that session, lo-and-behold, the more you play, the more likely it becomes that the 2-in-a-rows added up from all the shoes will be about 25% of all plays!

Same for 1's, 3's. 4's, etc. as well as P and B.

Will it be exact? NO,but trust me when I say that I have used this method very successfully over many years now to help me exploit betting opportunities.

So here are some real world examples:

a) within a shoe, if P is getting all the natural 8's and 9's, the longer this goes the more I am going to watch for an opportunity that matches up with NOR play to bet larger amounts on a hand where I think the B will win, especially if the shoe so far has a big disparity like I described.

within a shoe, let's say it looks like this: PPP B PP B PPP B PP B PPPP B Yes i am going to follow the shoe, but if the numerical values of the scores tells me B is "overdue" for a natural 8 or 9, or P is due for a low score, it is likely that I will bet on that 2nd B coming out, instead of always switching to P after 1 B. Again, the farther the game gets from a normal distribution of events, the more likely it will eventuall return to the normal probabilities

c) playing shoe#2 in a session, or shoe#3 in a session I simply am on the lookout for events which have steered away from the normal probabilities, and look for good opportunites within the shoe being played ( again with NOR guidance) to exploit these anomalies and "bet" that the REGRESSION TO THE MEAN will come into play

In summary, I am not advocating to play against NOR, I am simply using the concepts of the numerical P/B discrepancies and REGRESSION TO THE MEAN to help me identify points in the shoe where I can "augment" my NOR play with a couple of other elements that the game delivers. Just like O/R count, just like SAP

I am not advocating you try this right away, but instead look back at your cards, practice these approaches, and i think you will be pleasantly surprised at your results.

Will you be right every time? of course not.

Does this replace NOR? absolutely not

But is what I am talking about really just the 5th grade math of Bac? YES!

So, are you smarter than a 5th grader?

[kachatz1]

I thought its a really nice gesture on the part of Keith and Ellis to reduce the price on the second part of the video. As much as this is an instructional forum to exchange thoughts and ideas on how to slay the proverbial "dragon" of a casino (and no I don't mean the 40:1 odds one), I look at this whole concept here as a business and as school. As a student, if you want to learn and develop skills which in the future will earn you an income, you need to pay to able to learn. In the same sense, as a person pays for a personal trainer to help them get their body in shape,or take golf,tennis or even piano lessons, there is a fee involved. The fact that what we are paying to learn here can parlay into earning a tidy income with a skill that is recession proof is something to behold. I come from a philosophy that one should pay for a service given. In truth, I really believe the fees should have been much higher for videos. I admit to being a serial purchaser of several baccarat systems. All of these "gurus" tell you beforehand of how there will be ample support to justify the prices of their course. YEAH, RIGHT! I know if I feel blessed to actually be involved with persons of integrity here, who actually walk the walk and talk the talk.

I feel more confident now going walking into a casino in AC as I will be doing this coming week. I realize I have a long way to go before I can actually say I am good Baccarat player. Each day I see a little light at the end of tunnel here. The guys and gals sitting next to me at BAC aren't armed with the tools as I am. I just have to learn to use them correctly. Thanks to all of you who makes this all possible.

Be Well

Joey

It is so recession -proof, I am teaching my kids to play. AT FIRST, IT WAS LIKE YEAH, YEAH DAD IS A COMPULSIVE GAMBLER...NOW IT IS LIKE, THEIR FRIENDS AE CALLING ME...

[kachatz1]

Joeystyle and LENNY181 have both reminded me that I promised to post a few things that realy help me out when playing Baccarat, after I returned from the seminar.

Sorry it took so long. BOTH OF THESE THINGS I DISCUSSED IN FRONT OF THE GROUP AT THE SEMINAR.

Let me say at the outset that neither is directly related to NOR, but these two things have to do more with the simple math of baccarat and are complementary to NOR play, just like the O/R count and the SAP count.

1) I keep track of the numerical "score" of the Player and Banker hands after each hand has been played. Example : After hand # 1, I record that the P has a 3, and the Bank has won with a 4 ( 4 beats 3)...After hand # 2, I note that the P has a 6, but was again beaten by the B which recorded a 7....and on and on, for the entire shoe...

HOW DOES THIS HELP ME, AND WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE? To me, it makes a lot-of-difference, as over the course of the shoe, if I see one side is getting a lot of 8's and 9's, and the other side is getting a lot of low 0's, 1's and 2's I will tend to use this information towards calculating my larger bets. Exactly how I use this I will explain below in (2)

2) When i play Baccarat, I am a firm believer that the longer I play any given session ( even just paper betting and recording the results), the more likely that the basic math of baccarat will come into play. Ellis has writtten a lot about the stats of a typical shoe ( so many 1 events in a row, so many 2 events in a row, so many 3 events in a row, etc), and there are numerous posts throuhout the forum about the exact probabilities of each event.

We all come to learn that no two shoes are exactly the same, but we will in the course of our play observe a fair # of shoes in which the number of 1-in-a-row events, and the number of 2-in-a-row events ( like PP or BB), etc. come out pretty even with the statistical norm. Again, lots of posts on this subject in the forum.

So how I exploit this is simple. If in the first shoe I notice that there is a shortage of 1-in-a-rows, or 2-in-a-rows, etc. as compared to the normal stats of the game, or that P has far exceeded B in the actual number of results ( or vice-versa B is way ahead of the P's), in the next shoe I will be looking for the Oddities that really stand out to "reverse course" and get back towards a more normal distibution.

I call this REGRESSION TO THE MEAN, or simply, a return towards a more normal distribution of events.

Important to understand, that every shoe has it's quirks, so this is not a method that I rely on solely to steer my betting strategies, and NOR tells us to "follow the shoe" in current play. By the same token, the longer and further away something gets from the normal distribution of events, the more-and-more likely I BELIEVE it will "tend towards" a return back in the direction of the normal distribution of events, when factoring in ALL PLAYS SO FAR IN A GIVEN SESSION/ SERIES OF SHOES PLAYED OVER THE COURSE OF PLAYING 2,3,4 OR MORE SHOES IN A ROW.

This may sound "difficult" to undestand, so I will clarify it as follows:

Any good bac player learns that it is very valuable to keep their scorecards, and go back over them to see what they could have done better...so what I do is after each shoe is completeIi record on the top of the card the number of how many times a given event occured ( like 1-in -a-row, 2,3,4,5,6 etc-in-a-row, as well as P and B totals). After the second shoe played, I record the same info, but I also add to that shoe's results the results from shoe #1 for a cumulative total. After shoe 3, I add in the results from shoe 1 and 2, et. etc. for as long as my session lasts.

I am no math professor, but I can assure you that the longer you play in a given session, the more likely the cumulative results will parallel the theoretical results ( statistical probabilities of an event occuring, as described above...read all about these in posts on this forum...).So while shoe #1 may have had a lot of , say, 2-in-a-row events, even way out of the normal 25% probability, by the time you are done playing for the night and you have added up the results from all shoes played during that session, lo-and-behold, the more you play, the more likely it becomes that the 2-in-a-rows added up from all the shoes will be about 25% of all plays!

Same for 1's, 3's. 4's, etc. as well as P and B.

Will it be exact? NO,but trust me when I say that I have used this method very successfully over many years now to help me exploit betting opportunities.

So here are some real world examples:

a) within a shoe, if P is getting all the natural 8's and 9's, the longer this goes the more I am going to watch for an opportunity that matches up with NOR play to bet larger amounts on a hand where I think the B will win, especially if the shoe so far has a big disparity like I described.

within a shoe, let's say it looks like this: PPP B PP B PPP B PP B PPPP B Yes i am going to follow the shoe, but if the numerical values of the scores tells me B is "overdue" for a natural 8 or 9, or P is due for a low score, it is likely that I will bet on that 2nd B coming out, instead of always switching to P after 1 B. Again, the farther the game gets from a normal distribution of events, the more likely it will eventuall return to the normal probabilities

c) playing shoe#2 in a session, or shoe#3 in a session I simply am on the lookout for events which have steered away from the normal probabilities, and look for good opportunites within the shoe being played ( again with NOR guidance) to exploit these anomalies and "bet" that the REGRESSION TO THE MEAN will come into play

In summary, I am not advocating to play against NOR, I am simply using the concepts of the numerical P/B discrepancies and REGRESSION TO THE MEAN to help me identify points in the shoe where I can "augment" my NOR play with a couple of other elements that the game delivers. Just like O/R count, just like SAP

I am not advocating you try this right away, but instead look back at your cards, practice these approaches, and i think you will be pleasantly surprised at your results.

Will you be right every time? of course not.

Does this replace NOR? absolutely not

But is what I am talking about really just the 5th grade math of Bac? YES!

So, are you smarter than a 5th grader?

THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS THIS...wanna' win? You start first-and-foremost with the BASIC MATH of probabilities of flipping-a coin.

If you can accept that fact, you are ready to learn...if not, best of luck ( you likely have little chance of success )

[d0ma1n]

Just finish download and watching the 2nd part of the seminar. Very good stuff and no regret purchasing it (thanks for the kind discount).

I can said it is pretty well covered and have a deeper understanding on applying NOR.

Thanks to Ellis and those participated in the seminar for the sharing. Glad to really see you guys live and walk the talk, how I wish i can join you all.

I am having more confident now to apply it in my play, and even know what to do next when facing a tough shoe where you are in a -7 units position.

Last night I played 4 shoee after watching the first part of the seminar and it was really helpful with the temperory stop betting when a 4+ runs hit the shoe, let it end and resume betting when the 1s start to emerge again, and with the right mode, all shoes was a winning shoe, some from -7 swing back to +7.

And I am playing NOR couple with SAP as shown by Paul in the seminar, and it really give a double power pack !!

[Keith Smith]

I am no math professor, but I can assure you that the longer you play in a given session, the more likely the cumulative results will parallel the theoretical results ( statistical probabilities of an event occuring, as described above...read all about these in posts on this forum...).So while shoe #1 may have had a lot of , say, 2-in-a-row events, even way out of the normal 25% probability, by the time you are done playing for the night and you have added up the results from all shoes played during that session, lo-and-behold, the more you play, the more likely it becomes that the 2-in-a-rows added up from all the shoes will be about 25% of all plays!

You have to be careful here while this is true, it will not apply if the cause of the large variance is caused by some assignable process flaw ( i.e. Shuffle etc). If you find these games where there is a reason for the variation in the process then you will find the best games you can play. I would caution you to assume that at the end of the session all variance will become normal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common-cause_and_special-cause

From the article and the basis of Blackjack and Baccarat approach.

Quoted from the article

This captures the central idea that some variation is predictable, at least approximately in frequency

Edited September 17, 2011 by Keith Smith

[Guest]

Right, what you are saying is true. Everything eventually catches up to random totals. This might take ten shoes and it might take 100 and it might never happen at a given casino - which makes it a hard thing to bet on. It is not where the big money is. The big money is in exploiting a bias that is here and obvious right now. We want to get the money BEFORE it changes because change it will. But you see biases that last a few shoes and you also see them last for days. It is far more clear cut to bet on the bias rather than try to bet on its eventual dissipation. A good thing to notice but not necessarily a good thing to bet on.

[Guest]

While Keith was maybe hoping to retire, I must say that I am highly pleased with the video and audio sales as well as the seminar turnout itself. This is definitely pointing toward a Vegas seminar. I think Keith is thinking December.

Keith, it would be good if we could resolve group room rates and buffet meals with Gold Coast before hand. Also I'm thinking they could arrange a small seminar room for us. Esp. if we let them decide the actual dates.

Also, Dave wanted our Marketing contact info at Gold Coast to arrange a trip of his own. That's the least we could do for him. We could probably sell the idea that Dave is an advance recon for BTC and get him a free trip. We would naturally what to check out current conditions. Seems to me to all fit together nicely???

Anyone wanting to join Dave should PM him.

[Keith Smith]

Then contact at the Gold Coast has moved on and therefore I have no one to pass onto anyone. I am checking some other contacts but we really have no relationships of any substance in Vegas so I am open to any suggestions. Steve our fellow who helps us in LA is always comped at the Paris so he will check for us to see if they can do something for us. I doubt a casino will help us anymore to be honest.

[donw]

Then contact at the Gold Coast has moved on and therefore I have no one to pass onto anyone. I am checking some other contacts but we really have no relationships of any substance in Vegas so I am open to any suggestions. Steve our fellow who helps us in LA is always comped at the Paris so he will check for us to see if they can do something for us. I doubt a casino will help us anymore to be honest.

Hey guys the RIO hotel across from the gold coast is about $30.00 to $50.00 Dollars a night 2 queen beds if anyone is sharing costs.

the first part and middle part of december if you guys get a date in mind we can pin it down hope this helps

[Guest]

The Rio would be excellent! It's about the only place in Vegas I never got barred. It has a good dinner show and you can walk to the Gold Coast. They also had a couple good mini Bac tables and the Gold Coast is right across the street. I was never barred at Rio in spite of good Bac wins there but I was barred at the Gold Coast 20 years ago but they let me play there last time. Keith, give them both a cold call. I think either place would at least give us a group rate, probably player rate, or fully comp us. And I don't think a small 4-6 hour seminar room is too much to ask for. Vegas is hurting right now and likely to jump at the chance. Tell them we lost our contact. Tell them we had 15 players last time half $25 and half $100. If they want to give us casino rate based on play that would be second best. Paris is too high dollar for our group. And it would be nice to have everyone staying at the same place this time. I suspect we could get buffet comps as well. Whatever we can deal for. It's Vegas for crying out loud and they know we can take our play elsewhere. The better we can negotiate the more members will attend, right guys? Rio likes to comp their dinner show.

If you want me to handle it let me know.

The last few times I played Rio it was so streaky I just bet repeats up as you win and won every shoe. It was streaky because they catered to inexperienced players back then.

Last time I played G.C. (a couple years ago) I played chop. They have both regular cards and factory preshuffled. About 7 tables of each. They cater to experienced players.

We should start getting an idea of how many want to attend this time. Dec will be here before you know it.

Edited September 19, 2011 by Guest

[zebra]

Sounds like a plan. I have not been to Vegas in a while and have some friends to look up.

Keep us posted on negotiations. I can get comped at Rio or GC and could take a roommate

Paul

[ECD]

I'm in for Vegas in December!!

[vinfong318]

Good news to me... Count me in , I need time to get a US Visa....

Thanks

[Guest]

While nothing is final yet, I'm going to be shooting for the weekend of Dec 10/11. Arrival should be Fri Dec 9. The seminar Sat morning with play sessions on Fri and Sat night plus early Sunday for those who have late Sunday or Monday flights.

Rooms will likely be casino rate which is very low compared to PA. I'm also going to negotiate for buffet comps. Be sure to bring ID and get a player comp card the first time you play. Passports or drivers license is fine. The pit boss can issue player cards right at the table.

Remember our trick of buying in for $500 when you ask for your comp card. But also remember our -8 stop loss.

Lenny, those dates should suit you fine, right?

[stevep]

Since I won't be able to make the seminar in Las Vegas I was wondering whether you are going to create a new video because of this seminar or is there only going to be the original two videos? When is the hard copy of the seminar going to be ready and what is the cost?

[kachatz1]

Since I won't be able to make the seminar in Las Vegas I was wondering whether you are going to create a new video because of this seminar or is there only going to be the original two videos? When is the hard copy of the seminar going to be ready and what is the cost?

The PA video was going to be available for all who attended and paid the seminar fee.

Likely I missed the post but how do I get it, and will the Vegas attendees get the Vegas video at no charge?

[Guest]

Yes, we will have Vegas videos. Figure on similar prices as before. I'm pretty sure attendees can get them free - just PM Keith. But I'll call Keith's attention to these questions.

I'm pretty sure I will also be doing a BJ seminar Sunday morning for our 0 Prox members and I'm guessing that once you paid for one seminar you can also attend the other provided we have enough room.

These things are hard to forecast. I remember one siminar in the Twin Cities. I planned on 50 people and 1000 showed up. I ended up doing a seminar every night for a week.

I've done some 300 seminars in my day with thousands of attendees and most included a live casino demonstration. I've never had a losing demonstration. But once at the Stardust the casin barred me and threw me out in the middle of a casino Bac demonstation. Ha, they have no idea how much that increased my sales.

Yeah, I know I ramble on but that's what happens when you get old.

[hawaiianal]

Yes, we will have Vegas videos. Figure on similar prices as before. I'm pretty sure attendees can get them free - just PM Keith. But I'll call Keith's attention to these questions.

I'm pretty sure I will also be doing a BJ seminar Sunday morning for our 0 Prox members and I'm guessing that once you paid for one seminar you can also attend the other provided we have enough room.

These things are hard to forecast. I remember one siminar in the Twin Cities. I planned on 50 people and 1000 showed up. I ended up doing a seminar every night for a week.

I've done some 300 seminars in my day with thousands of attendees and most included a live casino demonstration. I've never had a losing demonstration. But once at the Stardust the casin barred me and threw me out in the middle of a casino Bac demonstation. Ha, they have no idea how much that increased my sales.

Yeah, I know I ramble on but that's what happens when you get old.

Ellis,

I'll be there.

Looking forward to meeting all the members.

Just got back from Las Vegas this morning... didn't have a chance to play Bac but I did have a good run on the craps table.

See you in December.

Al

[MVSeahog]

For those of you looking for the video on YouTube, it looks like this when you get to the page. I believe that Keith will send you the appropriate link or filename when you send him your YouTube username.

MVS

[CG2244]

Hello BTC members,

Can i have the link to Nor Part 1 and Part 2 as per topic ?

Any help to the link will be appreciated.

 

Thanks

Jeff